Tag: Duke Of Firenze

Goodwood Friday Preview

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Brown Panther got us back on the winning trail in the Goodwood Cup which sets us up nicely for a tilt at Friday’s action-packed card. Some days are not very inspiring but just about every race looks tempting with the Betfair Mile (formerly Schweppes Golden Mile) being the big betting race.

Looking back at past winners I have to say that this race owes me a few quid! My trials and tribulations go back to a horse called Desert Dirham who was then trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He was an ante-post gamble from 10-1 down to 2-1 but was drawn wide and just about brought down trying to get a run in the straight. It is not a race that you can approach with confidence, particularly if you fancy a hold up horse that is drawn high.

Stirring Ballad’s disastrous run at Royal Ascot has been well documented but, just in case you missed it, here’s a quick recap. Richard Hughes decides that he is drawn on the wrong side so takes her diagonally across the track to the stands side. He gets no room at any stage and the side he was originally on turns out to be well ahead at the finish. Less publicised was the same manoeuvre taken by Prince Of Johanne (our ante-post selection) in the same race. He came out and won the Coral Challenge next time out.

Stirring Ballad is drawn four in the Mile and should be able to tuck in behind the pace from there and deliver her challenge late. Other fancied hold up horses are Wentworth (13), Dance And Dance (1) and Cape Peron (5). I like Henry Candy’s colt a lot but I’m just a little concerned as to whether he can handle the hustle and bustle. The ground should be ideal for both horses provided it doesn’t dry out too much. With 8-1 available about both I think we should support both and hope that their jockeys sit close and don’t mess it up at the start.

The card opens with my old friend Lost In The Moment and I can’t possibly desert him after his brave victory at Newmarket. He survived getting sandwiched and whacked over the head with a whip to get up and win. On form he should not beat his stable companion Masterstroke (3rd in the Arc) but I’m staying loyal in the hope that fitness makes the difference.

Montiridge has looked a really classy performer at times and loomed up in the Jersey Stakes as if he was certain to win. His stable companion Baltic Knight is a tough customer and should make a race of it but 13-8 about reflects Montiridge’s prospects here.

The King George Stakes at 3.40 is packed full with the usual suspects over five furlongs. However, the one that I like here is Moviesta who takes a step up in grade after being pipped in two big handicaps. They just never go quick enough for him in his races and this mad downhill dash should at last give him the chance to settle. I’m also going to have a saver on Duke Of Firenze at long odds. Ryan Moore has decided that the way to ride him is not to bully him and hope that he keeps pace with the others so that he can deliver a short burst at the finish. This worked well in the Epsom Dash but went horribly wrong at Sandown last time.

Grecian looks a decent bet at 8-1 in the nursery after losing narrowly at Ascot. Paul Cole may not be in the major league these days (apart from Ascot winner Berkshire) but he can still produce a good one from time to time.

Pavlosk did us a favour when forming part of a Stoute treble at York earlier in the season. She was supplemented for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but struggled in that company. She will be much more at home here and hopefully the ground won’t be too firm for her either.

Finally, I like Goodwood Mirage in the last. He ran well enough in a competitive race at the Newmarket July meeting but gets a bit further to travel here and the assistance of Frankie Dettori. His name gives away the fact that his owners would dearly love to win at this meeting and 9-2 makes plenty of appeal.

Lost In The Moment 6-1 Totesport
Montiridge 13-8 Bet365
Stirring Ballad 8-1 Totesport
Cape Peron 8-1 William Hill
Moviesta 9-1 Paddy Power
Duke Of Firenze 18-1 William Hill
Grecian 8-1 Ladbrokes
Pavlosk 5-1 Coral
Goodwood Mirage 9-2 Bet365

Sandown July 6th Ante-Post Preview

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There is some terrific racing lined for Sandown and Haydock this weekend and prices have been chalked up for five races. However, there are two very good reasons to hold fire at this stage. Firstly, the good old British summer!

I am told that a heatwave is approaching that could last for several weeks. At the moment it is bucketing down with rain and the going in the back garden is more suited to the Welsh National than the Coral Eclipse! The second reason is the appalling lack of information over running plans that has so far been relayed to us hapless punters.

I have already taken a chance on Mars (20-1) and The Fugue (5-1) for the Eclipse and both have made it into the final eight. Ballydoyle are keeping us on the edge of our seats waiting to find out whether Camelot will run or be retired. I personally haven’t seen enough zip in his performances since Epsom last June to suggest he can win an Eclipse.

He has also confused everyone by leaving Declaration Of War as a possible runner. I don’t think anyone had considered him anything other than a miler but he would certainly make things interesting. Coral have topped up their sponsorship for the card and there are ante-post markets on the Coral Charge and the Coral Challenge.

The Charge could see Epsom Dash winner Duke of Firenze in action after his defeat in the Wokingham. He was only eighth there but he didn’t run badly at all. A few weeks ago you wouldn’t have had him alongside the likes of Kingsgate Native and Spirit Quartz but they ran miserable races at Ascot.

I am also keen on Moviesta and I’m convinced we didn’t see the best of him at York. He did not settle through the early stages and may just have burned off too much energy to hold off the late challenge of Body And Soul. On the figures he has a bit to find in this grade but he’s certainly in with an each-way shout if taking his chance.

Both horses are “jocked up” but I have no information as to whether or not they can be regarded as definite runners. Keiren Fallon has been booked to ride Opinion for Sir Michael Stoute at Haydock so it seems reasonable to assume that Ryan Moore is going to Sandown for Duke of Firenze among others.

The Coral Challenge is a one mile handicap and the sponsors are running scared of Richard Hannon’s Wentworth. This horse has been unlucky in both of his recent starts at Goodwood and Ascot and is a worthy ante-post favourite.

To be fair to Richard Hughes, he was trying to overcome what was generally perceived to be an impossible draw in stall 20 in the Britannia Stakes and he finished up behind a wall of horses with a couple of furlongs to travel. The horse knuckled down and finished better than anything in fourth and may well have won had he been able to get out sooner. The 100-30 won’t last long with Bet365.

Coral Charge
Duke of Firenze 6-1 Bet365

Coral Challenge
Wentworth 100-30 Bet365

Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview – Saturday 22nd June

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The bookmakers were the winners on day 4 with our double on the O’Brien horses thwarted by Hillstar. Congratulations to connections of Sky Lantern after she put Just The Judge firmly in her place. Perhaps we will see the grey take on Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes? We’re still well ahead on the week but the effect of the draw is a real head-scratcher going into Saturday’s big sprints.

On Thursday night it was an established fact that it was an advantage to be drawn low but that all changed with the result of the Buckingham Palace Stakes. Low numbers never got a look in with stalls 32, 30 and 24 the first three home. Could it have simply been a question of there being more pace on the near side or did Thursday nights watering all fall on the far side of the track? We will never know.

Our ante-post wagers on the Wokingham are Duke Of Firenze (10-1) drawn 31 and Nocturn (25-1) drawn 12. The form of Nocturn was not exactly boosted by a miserable effort from Enrol today but we’ve still got good value. My main concern is whether he will continue to hang left in his races. He got away with it at Newmarket and Windsor but I’m not sure he could afford to do it here.

As it is the last day of the meeting and we’ve got funds in the bank I’m going to put up another couple of long shots. Mass Rally left me cursing when swooping to catch Nocturn on the Knavesmire but has been leniently treated by the handicapper here. Whether or not stall 6 is good I have no idea but 25-1 does not do him justice. The other is Shropshire, trained by Charlie Hills. He suffered a nightmare run at Newmarket and is just the sort to pop up in a race like this. He’s coming out of 18 so we’ll have covered most eventualities!

In the opening race I like Autumn Lily at 14-1. Her stable companion Ihtimal has been slashed in price for finishing second to today’s runaway winner Kiyoshi but I liked the attitude of Autumn Lily at Haydock and hope she can at least reach a place.

In the Hardwicke Stakes I am keen to oppose Mount Athos, not because I have anything against the horse, but simply because the race he won at Chester was hardly worthy of the name. There are some good tough horses up against him tomorrow and Ektihaam will presumably attempt to run them ragged. I like Aiken but Gosden’s horses have been shaping as though they will benefit from the run all week and Sir John Hawkwood is another tough nut to crack. I’ll side with Ektihaam.

Our Diamond Jubilee hopes rest with Society Rock and Hawkeyethenoo. I’d like to see enough rain to ease the going a fraction for Hawkeyethenoo as I’m convinced he could spring a surprise. There seems to be growing confidence in Sea Siren so I’m going to have a saver on the Australian raider.

In the penultimate race I am keen on Rye House after the way he won at York. I thought he looked a possible Ebor contender that day and I’ll be disappointed if he can’t defy a 9lb rise in the weights. You could make a decent case for Hammerfest or Blue Surf but I’m going to have an each-way on Lahaag. He did nothing wrong when second to First Mohican last time out and should make the frame for team Gosden.

Finally, class should tell in the last race as Shahwardi is way better than these on his form in Australia last winter. Admittedly his last run looks pretty awful but I can’t believe Monsieur Royer-Dupre would bring him over to Ascot half-cooked. The rest of the field are the usual mixture of non-stayers and prospective hunter chasers.

2.30 Autumn Lily 14-1 Stan James

3.05 Ektihaam 5-2 Coral

3.45 Ante-Post Hawkeyethenoo 16-1, Society Rock 9-2
Sea Siren 9-1 Coral

4.25 Ante-Post Nocturn 25-1, Duke Of Firenze 10-1
Mass Rally 25-1 Betfair
Shropshire 20-1 William Hill

5.00 Rye House 6-1 Totesport
Lahaag 11-1 Bet365

5.35 Shahwardi 7-2 Coral

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Update

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The Epsom Derby meeting does not usually provide many clues to Royal Ascot. In fact, it is often best to avoid the horses that run in the classics and then seek compensation at the Royal meeting. However, one of the handicaps could have provided an exception to the rule.

The Epsom Dash produced a bizarre finish when Sir Michael Stoute’s Duke Of Firenze burst through to grab an unlikely victory. With about a furlong and a half to run it looked as though he would struggle to make the frame but he suddenly took off once Ryan Moore switched him inside. Matching his run from the rear was Smoothtalkinrascal and the pair of them scythed through the field in eye-catching style.

It was possibly as much to do with the leaders slowing up as the first and second accelerating but both horses look sure-fire future winners. Duke Of Firenze looks set to run in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot off a 5lbs higher mark. The stable also has Enrol entered but that horse is languishing at number 80 in the handicap and is unlikely to get a run. Predictably the bookmakers have installed him as favourite but the 10-1 with Ladbrokes is worth adding to our Ascot portfolio.

Stoute will probably have a strong hand in the handicaps at the meeting this year but the one race he would really like to win is the Ascot Gold Cup. Amazingly he has not won the race since Shangamuzo in 1978 but has decent prospects this year with the Queen’s Estimate. The race she won at Sandown was a muddling affair but she quickened past them well enough and will be primed to run a big race. I’ve taken 16-1 about Simenon (now best-priced at 12-1) and I think the addition of Estimate at 10-1 will double my chances in a less-than-vintage Gold Cup.

Having backed Chapter Seven for the Royal Hunt Cup I was less than pleased to see him given a pacemaking role for Dunaden in the Coronation Cup. That race is over half a mile further than his optimum trip so it was hardly the ideal prep for Ascot. Another horse I like for the Hunt Cup is last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne. The grey ran a storming trial at York last month and must have a chance off virtually the same mark as 12 months ago. He is presently 20-1 with many punters believing that Dance And Dance, eighth at York, is the one to be on for Ascot. He was runner-up in 2011 and also has to be respected.

Royal Hunt Cup
Prince Of Johanne 20-1 Paddy Power

Wokingham
Duke Of Firenze 10-1 Ladbrokes

Gold Cup
Estimate 10-1 Ladbrokes