European runners have failed to win the Japan Cup since 2005 and they appear to face a difficult task again this year. Melbourne Cup fourth Simenon and Canadian International winner Joshua Tree are joined by Dunaden but all three have been handed a double-figure draw.
Statistics suggest that this may not be too much of a disadvantage but it hard to be excited about the task facing Johnny Murtagh from stall 17 on Joshua Tree. Ed Dunlop’s horse has been around the block a few times and was chalking up a record third success in the International last month. He will presumably be chased up to the leaders early on as staying is his game.
Dunaden, winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012, has been unable to recapture his best form this season. He ran respectably without ever threatening to get involved at Flemington, eventually finishing eighth. He may have lost a little of his speed and it will be interesting to see what tactics are adopted by Jamie Spencer on him from stall 10.
Simenon ran a terrific race to finish fourth in the Melbourne Cup, looking a possible winner when looming up turning for home. He galloped on well enough under Richard Hughes but couldn’t go with Fiorente in the closing stages. As a horse that has won over two miles and six furlongs, you’d have to think that this mile and a half at the top level is going to be too short. However, I cannot resist the 20-1 put up by Corals as an each-way bet, even from stall 14.
The bookmakers have this race as a match between the grey Gold Ship and last year’s winner Gentildonna. Gold Ship won the Japanese 2000 Guineas and St Leger last season and won the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen in June. He is not a straight forward individual and is known to have his off days, notably when only fifth in the Tenno Sho Spring. Jockey Hiroyuki Uchida was quoted as saying “Sometimes he doesn’t feel like racing”. Hardly encouraging for anyone thinking of taking the 2-1!
When he does feel like racing he is very good indeed, as demonstrated by an easy victory over Gentildonna, a run which poses questions about last year’s winner. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride the four-year-old mare who is yet to win since this race a year ago. Japanese Derby winner Eishin Flash is another with the form to win this but was also well beaten last time.
Simenon (each-way) 20-1 Coral
