Tasaday (tipped at 4-1) kept our noses in front at Meydan on Thursday but what happened to Certify? She lost her unbeaten record with a very disappointing display. I had my concerns when she was reluctant to enter the stalls so perhaps this was just an “off day”. It will be back to the drawing board with her as far as the big summer Group 1 races are concerned.
Back home and it is still nice weather for ducks with the weekend rapidly approaching. Our ante-post selections for the BetBright Chase have held their ground and the other big race is the Eider Chase at Newcastle. This is a very odd race in that it is over four miles and a furlong. The only other races in the calendar worthy of note over such an exhaustive trip are the National Hunt Chase, Scottish National and the Grand National.
In short, stamina is the one element that you simply have to take into account. That is even more important with the going heavy. If you remember Red Marauder’s National, that will give you some idea what to expect on Saturday!
I thought Haydock’s Grand National Trial was bad enough with only the Venetia Williams pair still able to put one hoof in front of the other in the closing stages but this could be even worse. I cannot see the top weights managing to cope but I am concerned that David Pipe may pull out both Junior and Master Overseer and trigger a weights rise.
Williams may run Relax after his Sandown victory in similar ground and it’s almost worth backing him purely because she is the trainer. He beat Ardkilly Witness by three lengths and the runner-up is well fancied for the big race at Kempton. A 7lbs penalty is not too much of a concern but he has yet to prove that he stays this sort of trip.
Sun Cloud is the one horse that seems to have bottomless stamina and handles any ground. The handicapper has put him up 12lbs for an 11-length win at Catterick and that would normally put me off. He has 11st 2lb at present but it would be a big worry if he finds himself with top weight on Friday night.
Tutchec has chalked up four wins in lower grade races but I wasn’t impressed with his jumping last time. I had an each-way bet on Royale Knight in the Warwick Classic and he scraped into a place behind Shotgun Paddy. He has won over four miles but he was going nowhere in the closing stages at Warwick and I am inclined to pass him over.
Smoking Aces travels well in his races and I thought he was going to win at Ffos Las last time. A couple of errors knocked the stuffing out of him and he could only stay on at one pace into third behind Emperor’s Choice. The winner ran well at Haydock last week so Smoking Aces has to be in contention here too.
Sun Cloud at 7-1 Paddy Power
Smoking Aces at 8-1 Bet365
