Tag: Epsom

Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

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The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

Epsom Preview 22nd April

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The Derby may seem long way off but Epsom gets its season under way on Wednesday with the Derby Trial meeting. A very competitive card also features the City And Suburban, the Great Metropolitan and a five-furlong dash.

It is the sprint which kicks things off at 2.10 and it may be worth siding with the in-form combination of Kevin Ryan and Jamie Spencer. They have already collected a couple of decent sprint prizes this spring and are represented by Piazon here. The four-year-old needs to improve but this doesn’t look the toughest event ever staged on the Surrey track.

The Great Metropolitan Handicap could go the way of Lungarno Palace who caught the eye when storming through into fourth behind Mica Mika at Doncaster last time. It is not the first time that the son of Henrythenavigator has hinted that a  longer trip might be in order. He also stayed on well when third at Newmarket over ten furlongs last October and he should go well for John Gallagher and Tom Queally.

There has not been a really credible Derby contender from the Trial since Daliapour in 1999 but Christophermarlowe could develop into a useful colt. He looked big and unfurnished last season but stuck on for two victories at Sandown and here at Epsom. If he has done well physically through the winter, he can see off Future Empire who is rated top on official figures.

The City And Suburban can got to the bottom weight, Collaboration, trained by Andrew Balding. I liked the way he quickened away at Windsor on his first start of the season and he can make the most of the 13lbs he receives from What About Carlo. That horse was a highly credible fourth in the Lincoln over a mile and should be much better suited by this trip.

Mezajy gets the vote in the maiden race at 4.30 after being tenderly ridden into third place at Nottingham by Graham Lee. The form has been let down since but he looked capable of stepping up on that effort, particularly if he is ridden more prominently this time. The danger is the Charles Hills-trained Mile High.

There are some promising three-year-olds in the final race including two in the Godolphin colours. New Strategy made all to win at Newmarket but I just prefer Deerfield who won his maiden at Thirsk. He was not really asked for maximum effort until the closing stages that day and could be the better value of the pair.

Piazon 2.10 @7-1 Paddy Power

Lungano Palace 2.45 @9-2 William Hill

Christophermarlowe 3.20 @10-11 Betfair

Collaboration 3.55 @13-2 Paddy Power

Mezajy 4.30 @5-4 Bet365

Deerfield 5.05 @11-2 William Hill

Epsom Tuesday Preview

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The victory of Muhaarar in the Gimcrack Stakes on Saturday gave us a profit on all four days of the York Ebor meeting. We finished the week over 30 points in profit after Dutch Connection (16-1), Tapestry (12-1), Sole Power (7-2) and Pale Mimosa (7-2).

The racing is not up to the same quality this week but there are a couple of interesting handicaps at Epsom on Tuesday that may be worth a flutter.

The old expression about following over cliffs springs to mind looking at the form for Mission Approved. His last six races have yielded three seconds and three thirds and he is likely to be a popular choice yet again in the six-furlong John Akehurst Handicap.

Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, the gelding is now with Luca Cumani and almost popped up at 20-1 at Goodwood last time out. He certainly did not appear to shirk the issue when battling to the line and was unlucky to be beaten a short-head by Barnet Fair. The handicapper has put him up 3lbs for that run which must be frustrating for connections.

Huntsmans Close was not far behind him while Duke Cosimo won a very competitive race at Ripon last time. Both should go well along with track specialist Swiss Cross but I’ll keep faith with the luckless Mission Approved.

In the closing race I’m going to go with Roger Charlton’s Marzante. The grey ran a cracking race when narrowly beaten by Cherry Princess on his first outing for three years. He set a modest pace and looked like being swallowed up early in the straight but kept finding extra all the way to the line. Cherry Princess arrived fast and late and Marzante looked unlucky not to hold on.

The handicapper has put him up 3lbs for his troubles but he should run well for George Baker who has impressed me this season. Cherry Princess re-opposes and Gabrial The Thug should also pose a threat. Perhaps the biggest threat is the so-called “Bounce factor”. Many believe that horses running well after a lengthy layoff could suffer a bounce effect next time and run poorly. Marzante would be a prime candidate but, not knowing the reasons for his lengthy absence, I am prepared to take a chance.

It is difficult to get very excited about the rest of the card but hopefully the racing will pick up during the week.

Mission Approved 3.25 @4-1 Betfair

Marzante 5.05 @9-2 BetVictor

Epsom Derby Day Preview

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Oaks day proved to be extremely profitable despite Ihtimal failing to reach the frame in the big race. Taghrooda (5-1) more than covered our stakes on the Godolphin filly and we also scored with Thistle Bird (7-2), French Navy (13-2) and Abseil (5-2). I hope that some of you had them linked up in doubles and trebles!

It is going to be difficult to follow that on Derby day but we’ll do our best. At the time of writing, the going is something of a mystery. It was drying out to good to firm on Friday evening but the forecasts are for heavy thundery rain tomorrow so it’s pretty much anybody’s guess. The safest option is probably to keep the soft ground horses on your side.

William Haggas has his stable in great form and saddles two in the opener (just to complicate things!). Of the two, I prefer the filly Flippant who has twice battled back to win races that it would have been easier to lose. She was past and looked beaten at Haydock last autumn but refused to give and switched around the leaders to get back up and win. She displayed the same qualities in winning over a mile at Chepstow last time and I think the mile and a quarter will be right up her street.

Not many two-year-olds get completely shut off in the home straight and still get up to win on the bridle. Baitha Alga did exactly that at the May meeting and could present Frankie Dettori with a Derby day winner in the Woodcote Stakes. She was quickly away and did everything right at Chester so should handle the Epsom downhill run without any problems.

Cirrus Des Aigles looks a class above his rivals in the Coronation Cup and should prove a very popular winner. He has already beaten Treve this season and it’s hard to imagine any of his rivals doing that. There seems to be confidence behind Flintshire but he’ll need to improve to beat the eight-year-old.

I previewed the Derby earlier in the week and believe that the Chester Vase could prove to have been a decent trial. A (very) long time ago I watched Quest For Fame beat Belmez in the same race and they proved to be pretty useful. Having gone for Orchestra (each-way) it would be foolish not to have a small bet on Romsdal at 28-1 after Mr G won the Oaks today in such fine style. We still have our ante-post bet on Kingston Hill so hopefully on of them will sneak a place at least.

Flippant 1.35 Epsom at 8-1 Paddy Power

Baitha Alga 2.05 Epsom at 11-4 Coral, Stan James

Cirrus Des Aigles 2.40 Epsom at Evens 888Sport

Kingston Hill 4.00 Epsom 10-1*

Orchestra 4.00 Epsom 16-1*

Romsdal 4.00 Epsom 28-1 BetVictor

*Ante-post

 

 

 

Epsom Friday Preview

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It is Oaks day on Friday at Epsom and the supporting card provides plenty of additional interest. Ihtimal carries our hopes in the classic with our 20-1 ante-post selection down to less than half of those odds. I still believe she is excellent each-way value at around 10-1 and expect to see her price shorten before the off.

The support for Marvellous has meant that Taghrooda has eased out to 4-1 and she is my idea of the biggest threat to the Godolphin filly. John Gosden suffered a near-miss with Kingman in the 2000 Guineas before gaining compensation in Ireland and he has another live classic contender here. She may ease out towards 5-1 and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t make the frame.

Thistle Bird is a great favourite of the Roger Charlton stable and she can bounce back to form in the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes. She won this prize 12 months ago and looked as though she needed the outing when only sixth at York last time. Frankie Dettori was not hard on her once her chance had gone and I expect the mare to gain revenge on Odeliz and Mango Diva who both finished ahead of her that day.

Tres Coronas did us a favour when winning at Chester last month and again ran well behind Clever Cookie at York. His handicap mark has risen as a result and I just prefer the bottom weight Air Pilot in the second race at 2.10. Ralph Beckett’s horse has had only three starts but looked value for more last time when he hit the front too soon.

Gregorian is the best on form in the Diomed Stakes but I am just put off by his lack of a recent outing. He usually goes well fresh but French Navy and Windhoek may have a fitness advantage in a tricky little contest. I just feel that French Navy offers better value at 9-2 than Gregorian at 5-2.

Abseil was beaten by the draw at Chester last time when his fate was sealed by missing the break. He did well to get to within give lengths of the heavily backed Here Comes When and should enjoy the step up to a mile in the 3.20. He has been backed ante-post for the Royal Hunt Cup so ought to win this if he is to justify that support.

Thistle Bird 1.35 Epsom at 3-1 Ladbrokes

Air Pilot 2.10 Epsom at 8-1 William Hill

French Navy 2.45 Epsom at 9-2 Bet365

Abseil 3.20 Epsom at 9-4 Coral, Totesport

Ihtimal 4.00 Epsom at 9-1 William Hill

Taghrooda 4.00 Epsom at 4-1 William Hill

 

Epsom Derby 2014 Preview

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The Derby market has been dominated for months by Aidan O’Brien’s Australia, although we can expect to see his price drift towards 2-1 as the race nears. The fact that Ballydoyle run their usual mob of horses raises the usual questions and Ryan Moore complicated things further by choosing Geoffrey Chaucer over Chester Vase winner Orchestra.

Australia does have the best form in the book with his third in the 2000 Guineas but I wouldn’t be going overboard to back him at silly prices. Camelot came here after winning the Guineas in workmanlike fashion but it turned out to be a weak Derby. This year’s race is hard to weigh up but at least there is a decent turn-out.

The race won on a disqualification by Fascinating Rock is open to all forms of interpretation. The winner was not suited by the slow gallop, the runner-up Ebanoran quickened impressively but the vibes from the stable are weak. Geoffrey Chaucer didn’t get a great run up the rail but did no more than stay on to my eyes and I cannot see why he is suddenly all the rage.

The Chester Vase looked as though Orchestra was about to emerge as a strong second favourite for the Derby when he cruised around the home turn to take up the running. Whether it was greenness or lack of stamina I don’t know but he wandered in the closing stages and just held off Romsdal. If you had frozen the tape at the home turn you’d have said Orchestra would win by five lengths. I am still inclined to support him at an each-way price in preference to his stable companions.

I believe that Romsdal was flattered to get so close and I don’t like Western Hymn. He put in a laboured performance last time and I’m not convinced that he’s up to this task. The Grey Gatsby’s French Derby (I still don’t believe it is worthy of the name over a mile and a quarter) has convinced some scribes that the Dante form is top class. I felt that True Story ran like a non-stayer while Arod showed his inexperience and could be a Leger prospect.

Our only surviving ante-post bet is on Kingston Hill. The saving grace with him is that Roger Varian has his stable in great form. He won’t mind a bit of cut in the ground either but he is not certain to stay. The Lingfield Trial looked distinctly ordinary so we’ll add Orchestra to Kingston Hill and hope to upset the favourite.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 (ante-post)

Orchestra at 16-1 (Paddy Power)