Tag: Epsom

Epsom Oaks 2014 Preview

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Regular readers of this column will know that I have pinned my colours firmly to Ihtimal for the Epsom Oaks some time ago. I followed the filly as a two-year-old and was convinced that she was given an ill-judged ride when third on her final start.

She came out in Dubai and blitzed her rivals in the UAE Guineas and Oaks but still failed to capture the imagination of British punters and was available at double figure prices in the build-up to Newmarket. She ran a cracking race on the day but could not quite get to the front two. She more than covered our ante-post advice at 16-1 for the Guineas and we are clutching our 20-1 Oaks vouchers in anticipation of another big run on Friday.

Her pedigree, running style and dosage index all suggest that she will get the mile and a half. Silvestre De Sousa must be wondering exactly what he did to deserve being dropped for the classic in favour of Kieren Fallon but strange things are happening with Godolphin these days. Ihtimal has always struck me as an easy-moving filly that will handle Epsom and I wouldn’t put anyone off having another go at around 10-1 each-way.

Taghrooda is the only other filly that I would have entertained for this race but I missed the value with her. I wrote a lengthy article about the maiden race she won last autumn from which six or seven horses can out and won next time. By the time she reappeared at Newmarket for the Pretty Polly she was already down to around 6-1 and those odds were promptly halved after her easy success.

I believe that she has eased simply because the odds were a little cramped and she is my biggest concern. I’m always wary of Irish classic winners running in the Oaks or Derby. It always feels like an after-thought to me and I also felt that Marvellous was being scrubbed along far too early at the Curragh to be comfortable on the Epsom Downs. Tarfasha is still not a certain runner while connections ponder the conditions and none of the others have done anything to suggest that they can win a classic.

Amazing Maria has not raced this season but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see her run into a place.

Ihtimal (Epsom Oaks) at 9-1 William Hill

Epsom Wednesday Preview

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Epsom stages its traditional curtain raiser for the new season on Wednesday and it is a good quality card. After a lovely sunny Easter, the rain returned on Tuesday and the going is officially soft for the fixture which includes the Derby Trial.

It is a long time since this race lived up to the title but there are some nice colts in action this season. John Gosden runs two unbeaten horses, the pick of which is Marzocco. He has been given an entry in the Dante Stakes at York so has to be respected. I am just going to side with the Godolphin horse Moontime who beat Munjaz at Newmarket last season.

In theory, Gosden will know the time of day with this one as he trains Munjaz. That colt duly won his maiden at the Craven meeting but Moontime has plenty of scope for improvement and could be another for Sheikh Mohammed’s promising bunch of three-year-olds.

The Great Met and The City And Suburban are two of the oldest handicaps on the calendar and it is good to see them attracting decent fields again. Ryan Moore is flying at the moment and he has a great chance of a big handicap double here with Red Runaway and Rock Choir.

Red Runaway is trained by Ed Dunlop and has a healthy weight advantage with Van Percy on last year’s Chester form. Van Percy did beat him at Haydock but that was on firm ground and Red Runaway will be more at home on this surface. He is yet to win over a mile and a half but Moore is not averse to offering his opinion on his mounts and this race looks to have been picked out following his easy Lingfield victory.

Rock Choir lost her way a little towards the back end of the season but only after winning twice for William Haggas and running a fair third in Listed company at Salisbury. She looked the type to progress from three to four and Moore could be a significant booking in a wide open race. Ajman Bridge was slightly disappointing last season for Luca Cumani but still has room for improvement and is rated the main danger.

Red Runaway 2.20 Epsom at 5-1 Bet365

Moontime 2.50 Epsom at 5-1 Coral

Rock Choir 3.25 Epsom at 11-2 Totesport

Derby Ante-Post Preview

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The turf flat season starts this weekend and that means that the classics aren’t far away. I’ve covered the 1000 Guineas in some depth and am looking forward to Ihtimal after her impressive victories at Meydan.

I don’t really have a firm view on the 2000 Guineas, although confidence behind Australia seems to have gone into overdrive this week. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has apparently said that Istabraq is the only horse that he has trained with more class than Australia. That may seem an odd reference after all of the top class flat horses that have been through his hands, but it certainly tells us that he rates the colt very highly indeed.

I won’t be joining the stampede to take 5-2 for Newmarket because he hasn’t really clashed with the best of his contemporaries. He slaughtered a highly-rated colt in Free Eagle by six lengths at Leopardstown in a Group 3. Dermot Weld thinks a lot of the runner-up, although I’m not sure what he thought about his drubbing that day!

Two colts that I would much rather follow in 2014 are Kingston Hill and Berkshire. To my mind, they both put up eye-catching Derby trials as two-year-olds. Kingston Hill is going to run in the Guineas but it wouldn’t surprise me if Paul Cole kept Berkshire back for a race like the Dante before heading to Epsom.

Kingston Hill was brilliant when winning the Racing Post Trophy. I think he surprised Andrea Atzeni with his turn of foot that day, powering clear in the soft ground to win by four and a half lengths. I’m not too sure what he beat because 200-1 outsider Dolce N Karama was only seven lengths away in fourth. Even so, it was a smart performance and suggested he will cope with the mile and a half at Epsom.

Berkshire is a fabulous looking colt by Mount Nelson out of a Dr Devious mare. He improved about 10lbs on his debut at Newbury to win the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. There was no doubt that Paul Cole knew he had a potential classic colt on his hands and he did not race again until September. He looked in trouble a furlong out in the Royal Lodge Stakes but knuckled down bravely to win by a neck from Somewhat. The bare form leaves him a lot to do but he is going to be a very smart colt this season.

Kingston Hill at 10-1 Coral

Berkshire at 25-1 Skybet, Paddy Power

Epsom Preview Friday 31st May

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The Oaks is the feature race of Epsom’s opening day with Secret Gesture set to go off favourite. Ralph Beckett’s filly has replaced Moth at the head of the market and the midweek rain can only have improved her chances. The rain could also help my each-way selection The Lark so I’m looking forward to the race with optimism.

The meeting opens with a tricky looking contest for the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. I’ve been following Sentaril throughout her career and she started her campaign with a promising run at Goodwood. She was held up by Graham Lee but he found himself trapped on the rails when the pace quickened and he had to wait to deliver his challenge. Sentaril ran on well enough but the winner had first run and held off her late challenge. You can make a case for most of the runners here but I’ll keep faith with Sentaril at 6-1.

I picked out Niceofyoutotellme when the 2.10 was priced up earlier in the week but he is now a non-runner. The money during the week seems to have been for Blue Surf, trained by Amanda Perrett. The four-year-old has not been seen since disappointing in the November Handicap so I can only guess that they have him ready first time out.

The Diomed Stakes is another trappy little race where it is difficult to be too confident. I’m going to side with Gregorian who produced some top class form last season and looked as they he would be sharpened up by his outing at Haydock recently. I respect the claims of Producer who has won all four previous starts at Epsom and that’s a stat that it is difficult to ignore.

I will probably regret overlooking Gabrial. He did this column a good turn when winning the Doncaster Mile but then failed to go through with his effort at Chester. He looked a difficult ride that day and ran like a sidewinder up the straight. If Spencer can preserve his finishing kick he could probably run diagonally across the course and still win but I’m not prepared to take the chance.

Andrew Balding withdrew Here Comes When from the Silver Bowl on account of the firm ground and he has been re-routed to the Listed race at 4.45. His main rival looks to be Hasopop who was behind him at Newbury earlier in the season. He has since won a decent six furlong handicap at Newmarket and is the best part of a stone better off than at Newbury for two lengths.

Strictly speaking, Hasopop should be the selection but Here Comes When won at Chester with a bit in hand. The bookmakers have priced them up at 9-4 and 7-2 and I’m very confident that the race concerns these two. Earlier this week I fancied Heeraat at Beverley and rated Hamza the only danger. I don’t want to make the same mistake again here so I recommend splitting stakes on the pair.

Ante-Post Oaks
Secret Gesture 4-1
The Lark (each-way) 33-1

1.35 Sentaril 6-1 William Hill
2.45 Gregorian 7-2 Paddy Power, Producer 4-1 William Hill
4.45 Hasopop 9-4 William Hill, Here Comes When 7-2 Bet Victor

Epsom Ante-Post Update

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The latest news on the Derby is that Magician is thought to be unlikely to take part in Saturday’s classic. If this is confirmed on Friday, it is unlikely to have too much of an impact on the market with bookmakers having been offering NR/No Bet this week.

The attention of the media seems to have been side-tracked by the saga of whether or not Frankie Dettori will be allowed to ride in the race following his drugs ban. Personally I would much rather concentrate on the horses. I have advised interest in the French and German raiders, Ocovango and Chopin at 9-1 and 12-1 respectively. I don’t see any value in backing the favourite at around even money given his stamina concerns and none of the other runners have really impressed me. However, both horses would appreciate a little bit of cut so I may be forced to do a rain dance later in the week!

The market for the Oaks is also unchanged after eleven horses were declared for Friday’s race. Secret Gesture (4-1) has been my selection here since she bolted up in the Lingfield Oaks trial. Moth and Liber Nauticus are challenging her in the betting but I just think she will have more gears than they do. I’ve also taken an each-way interest in The Lark (33-1), a half-sister to 2009 Oaks winner Sariska and open to plenty of improvement.

The bookmakers have now started pricing up the other races at the meeting and there are a couple in the handicaps that could be worth supporting. The first is Ralph Beckett’s progressive handicapper Niceofyoutotellme. I am not usually a fan of form from the polytrack but the style of his victory at Kempton suggests that there is a lot more to come from this son of Hernando. He was always travelling easily and picked up very well to cut down the field and win by a head. He is racing off only a 5lb higher mark on Friday and stands out in an otherwise moderate field.

My second selection is more speculative but has some sound reasoning behind it. You could hardly have a more difficult race to unravel than the Epsom Dash on Saturday but I think La Fortunata is overpriced at 20-1. The mare looked certain to win over course and distance last month only to be caught in the very last stride by Ajjaadd. Early speed is essential in this race above all others and she loves to bowl along in front. Her Epsom form reads 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 2nd. By my reckoning that makes her a fair each-way bet at 20-1.

Friday – Niceofyoutotellme 11-2 Paddy Power
Saturday – La Fortunata 20-1 Bet365

Oaks Ante-Post Preview Update

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Last week I recommended taking the 4-1 about Secret Gesture for the Epsom Oaks and she is now down to 5-2 favourite. The form of her runaway win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial is nothing to write home about but it was the manner of her victory that caught the eye. She looked happy at every stage of the race, responded to a shake of the reins and could have quickened up again if it had been necessary. There may not be that much of her but there is nothing wrong with her engine and she looks like being an outstanding filly.

Aidan O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas third Moth has been displaced as favourite and could possibly line up in the Irish Guineas this weekend. That would surely rule her out of contention for the Oaks but it is never a good idea to try and second-guess what trainers are planning to do. The same applies to Snow Queen who ran on well at Newmarket with the stable also having Cork winner Say entered for Epsom. A case could be made for all three but I’m happy to pass them over until running plans are confirmed.

Liber Nauticus ground out a victory in the Musidora Stakes last week but it was more of a workmanlike display than anything spectacular. I am surprised to find her as short as 7-2 as my first reaction was that she would be pushed out to 5 or 6-1 for Epsom. Sir Michael Stoute provided this column with a nice treble the following day so it is not easy to overlook anything he sends out at the moment. She looked the sort of filly that could go on to win a race like the Park Hill and I think she may meet a couple with a bit more toe at Epsom.

One runner that I was tempted to include as an each-way selection was Cheshire Oaks winner Banoffee. She is to be supplemented for the race after overcoming a slow start to sluice up the rail and pick off the leaders at Chester. She looked a little bit too keen in the early stages, although this could have been down to it being her first start of the season, but I’m just a little concerned about how she will settle in the Oaks. I wouldn’t put anyone off her at 10-1 but I’m not entirely convinced about her over this trip.

Secret Gesture will be joined by her stable companion Talent, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. Madame Defarge ran on into third that day but there seems no obvious reason for her to reverse the placings. The French raider Planete Bleue is an unknown quantity and runs in the famous colours of Daniel Wildenstein. Unfortunately I have not yet been able to see any “visual clues” as to how good she is but the fact that she is available at 50-1 suggests that she is no world-beater. At the moment, everything points to a victory for Secret Gesture.

Secret Gesture 5-2 Paddy Power