The jigsaw for the 2013 Epsom Derby is almost complete with Dawn Approach certain to go off a short-priced favourite after his emphatic 2000 Guineas victory. Aidan O’Brien has dominated the trials with Battle Of Marengo being touted as the best of his legion of entries. There are also challengers from France and Germany and a surprise Dante winner trained in Yorkshire.
Dawn Approach was around 7-4 after his Guineas win but is now a top-priced 5-4. The colt was supplemented for Epsom only weeks before his Newmarket victory and there are certainly doubts regarding his stamina. His style of racing has been put forward as the main reason for this newfound confidence in his ability to stay the Derby distance.
Last season he often needed to be driven along quite some way out before asserting his superiority. This has given the impression that he is a very good horse rather than a superstar. He has not cruised into his races or produced an electrifying burst of speed to kill of the opposition. He was under pressure well over a furlong out on Guineas day but kept finding more and had five lengths to spare at the line. The jury is still out on exactly what he beat the day with the runner-up having been sent off at odds of 150-1 and Toronado seemingly failing to give his true running.
In an ordinary year you would expect an impressive trial winner or proven stayer to have emerged as his chief rival. Battle Of Marengo was expected to fill that role but his Leopardstown win was inconclusive and he is no certainty to stay a mile and a half on his pedigree either. O’Brien won both Chester trials easily with Ruler of the World and Magician but neither has quite captured the public’s imagination. Magician now looks likely to run in the Irish Guineas this weekend and his Derby odds have drifted to over 60-1 on Betfair. Ruler of the World beat only 3 rivals in the Chester Vase and is difficult to assess whilst Mars didn’t do enough in the Guineas to encourage support at Epsom.
The Dante at York was expected to provide a serious challenger in Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope but he was forced to withdraw with a minor infection. The media circus has since been watching his every move but he would have to be something very special to win the Derby on his first start as a three-year-old. At long odds you might be tempted but at 7-1? In the event, the Dante was won by outsider Libertarian who was niggled along early but simply outstayed his rivals in the straight.
The French challenger Ocovango is unbeaten in three races and has won over eleven furlongs. His sire Monsun is an outstanding source of middle-distance runners including Manduro, Shirocco and Getaway. They tended to improve with age and there is still a slight stamina doubt on the dam’s side. However, he seems to settle well in his races and should be a straightforward ride. He’s a top price of 9-1 with William Hill.
Chopin has won his last two starts by an aggregate of 17 lengths in Germany. He is by high-class miler Santiago out of a Galileo mare so he has a chance of staying the trip. The bookmakers are being very respectful of his chances with quotes as low as 10-1. Like Ocovango, he has shown his best form on a softer surface and is difficult to weigh up. At this stage I just prefer Ocovango.
Ocovango 9-1 (each-way) William Hill
