Tag: Estimate

Goodwood Thursday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Goodwood Cup day opens with yet another tricky handicap for punters to unravel. Roseburg was impressive at Haydock last time out for the in-form Luca Cumani but I’m a little concerned about the quicker ground for him.

The one that catches my eye is Amanda Perrett’s Astronereus. I strongly fancied Razor Wind at Newmarket last time but he had no answer to Astronereus once Richard Hughes had extricated him from a pocket. Arable won well at Haydock but has been given a 10lbs hike in the handicap so I shall side with the Perrett horse for a Sussex-trained winner.

Ivawood should take the Richmond Stakes but the bookmakers are taking no chances by offering only 4-7 about the July Stakes winner. His form certainly looks far superior to his rivals with the exception of Jungle Cat who will probably give him most to do.

Estimate will start favourite for the Goodwood Cup and can get the better of Brown Panther, providing the rain stays away. The latter was beaten in heavy ground in France last time out but generally shows his best with a little cut in the ground. It was good ground last year when he won decisively and he is the danger to Her Majesty’s mare.

John Gosden’s incredible season continues and I think he could spring a surprise in the Lillie Langtry Stakes at 3.45. Stella Bellissima won her only start at Newbury despite falling out of the stalls. She made her challenge on the wide outside and did well to get up and win. What tempts me to have an each-way investment on the filly here is the fact that the runner-up came out and won by 19 lengths at Newmarket! Missunited is obviously the one to beat after her magnificent effort in the Gold Cup.

Finally, in the 4.50 I’m going to recommend another speculative investment on Andrew Balding’s Secret Hint. The filly will be having only her third start and is 2lbs out of the handicap but there are question marks about many of her rivals. She is also set to receive plenty of weight from Magnus Maximus who beat her at Kempton on her debut.

The draw is a bit of a concern with stall 12 far from ideal. David Probert can hopefully get her out quickly and tuck in behind the pace. Sir Michael Stoute’s Royal Seal is feared most after running over six furlongs last time at Newmarket. That was patently too short for him and he should go well under Ryan Moore.

Astronereus 2.05 Goodwood @5-1 William Hill

Estimate 3.10 Goodwood @9-4 Betfair

Stella Bellissima 3.45 Goodwood @8-1 Paddy Power

Secret Hint 4.50 Goodwood

Royal Ascot Day 3 Preview – Thursday 20th June

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Rizeena came to my rescue yesterday at 7-1 to limit the damage from some disappointing performances. It looks as though the fast ground is starting to have a real impact with some quick times and some horses running well below their best.

Who would have guessed that Chigun and Thistle Bird would run so badly? As for the Royal Hunt Cup…well, for once I have to agree with the post-race reflections of Channel 4. As soon as I saw Prince Of Johanne running diagonally across to get on the “wrong” side of the course I knew my fate. Poor Richard Hughes took the same decision on the well-backed favourite Stirring Ballad and then failed to get any sort of run whatsoever.

Anyway…onwards and upwards and let’s take a look at day 3. Our ante-post involvement is on the Gold Cup with Simenon (16-1), Estimate (10-1) and Biographer (40-1). All three have tumbled in price so I’m hoping for a similar result to the Queen Anne with a couple of nice place returns at least. I haven’t seen any reason to alter my opinion on the race.

I’ve been very impressed with Richard Fahey’s runners this week. He’s managed to get two juveniles into second place and Garswood ran a good race in the Jersey Stakes in fourth. I think that’s probably as good as he is but I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see him drop back to six furlongs next time.

I’ll have to back Eccleston at 10-1, his representative in the opener. I’m expecting No Nay Never to be very difficult to peg back but there doesn’t seem great value at 5-1.

Having picked out The Lark ante-post for the Oaks at 33-1 I am a big fan of hers for tomorrow’s Ribblesdale. Of course I know that Ascot is something of a graveyard for Epsom horses but she didn’t have too hard a race there and I think she can win this. I am a little worried about the fast ground but 5-1 is too big.

I usually like a bet in the Britannia but this year’s field has got me a bit confused. You can usually rely on Haydock’s Silver Bowl as the best trial but the first and second from this year are not wanted by the punters? Wentworth has emerged as favourite after a nightmare run at Goodwood but it may be worth remembering that it was a pretty poor event. I’m certainly not going to be tripping over myself to take 4 or 5-1 in a race like this.

There is a bit of hype about Cape Peron and I can understand why. He won with a stone in hand last time and looks destined to make up into a group horse. As with The Lark, the quick ground is a worry but I’m prepared to take the risk at 7-1.

The 5.00 race features another horse going places in John Gosden’s Remote. I quite liked Baltic Knight before Doncaster but reassessed my views after he received a six-length drubbing. Baltic Knight then landed a big gamble at York so it is pretty obvious that Remote was masquerading as a handicapper. He is pitched in against horses with proven classic form but he is expected to prove up to the task.

The last race on the card is another minefield but I’m going to pick a couple out against the field. Space Ship would appear to be handicapped out of it on the face of his Epsom run but I don’t think anything went his way that day and he looked smart at Chester. Excellent Result absolutely bolted up in his maiden and could have suddenly twigged what the game is all about. Both are available at silly prices so they should give us some each-way interest.

Eccleston 2.30 10-1 Paddy Power
The Lark 3.05 5-1 Ladbrokes
Gold Cup 3.45 Ante-Post: Estimate 10-1, Simenon 16-1, Biographer 40-1
Cape Peron 4.25 7-1 Ladbrokes
Remote 5.00 100-30 Stan James
Space Ship 5.35 18-1 Stan James
Excellent Guest 5.35 14-1 Paddy Power

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Epsom Derby meeting does not usually provide many clues to Royal Ascot. In fact, it is often best to avoid the horses that run in the classics and then seek compensation at the Royal meeting. However, one of the handicaps could have provided an exception to the rule.

The Epsom Dash produced a bizarre finish when Sir Michael Stoute’s Duke Of Firenze burst through to grab an unlikely victory. With about a furlong and a half to run it looked as though he would struggle to make the frame but he suddenly took off once Ryan Moore switched him inside. Matching his run from the rear was Smoothtalkinrascal and the pair of them scythed through the field in eye-catching style.

It was possibly as much to do with the leaders slowing up as the first and second accelerating but both horses look sure-fire future winners. Duke Of Firenze looks set to run in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot off a 5lbs higher mark. The stable also has Enrol entered but that horse is languishing at number 80 in the handicap and is unlikely to get a run. Predictably the bookmakers have installed him as favourite but the 10-1 with Ladbrokes is worth adding to our Ascot portfolio.

Stoute will probably have a strong hand in the handicaps at the meeting this year but the one race he would really like to win is the Ascot Gold Cup. Amazingly he has not won the race since Shangamuzo in 1978 but has decent prospects this year with the Queen’s Estimate. The race she won at Sandown was a muddling affair but she quickened past them well enough and will be primed to run a big race. I’ve taken 16-1 about Simenon (now best-priced at 12-1) and I think the addition of Estimate at 10-1 will double my chances in a less-than-vintage Gold Cup.

Having backed Chapter Seven for the Royal Hunt Cup I was less than pleased to see him given a pacemaking role for Dunaden in the Coronation Cup. That race is over half a mile further than his optimum trip so it was hardly the ideal prep for Ascot. Another horse I like for the Hunt Cup is last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne. The grey ran a storming trial at York last month and must have a chance off virtually the same mark as 12 months ago. He is presently 20-1 with many punters believing that Dance And Dance, eighth at York, is the one to be on for Ascot. He was runner-up in 2011 and also has to be respected.

Royal Hunt Cup
Prince Of Johanne 20-1 Paddy Power

Wokingham
Duke Of Firenze 10-1 Ladbrokes

Gold Cup
Estimate 10-1 Ladbrokes

Royal Ascot Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It may seem a bit early to be thinking about Royal Ascot but the bookmakers have already started pricing up many of the races. The perils of ante-post betting were illustrated this week when the ground at Haydock was considered too fast for my two leading fancies in the Silver Bowl. From my vantage point in Scotland I must admit that I had never even considered the prospect of firm ground! Hopefully there will be no such concerns for the Royal meeting next month.

My first dabble in the ante-post market is on the Ascot Gold Cup. There does not appear to be an outstanding stayer about at the moment. So far this season we have seen an impressive win for the Queen’s Estimate and a shock winner of the Yorkshire Cup. But the one to catch my eye is Irish raider Simenon.

Last year, Simenon notched two victories at the Royal meeting and is now ready to step up from handicap class to the stayers’ championship. He took his chance under 9st 10lb in the Chester Cup and endured a nightmare run under Johnny Murtagh. Held up towards the rear, he bowled around on the inside but could not get out in time to catch the leaders. He made up plenty of ground in the straight and flew home in fourth. It takes a good horse to lump that sort of weight around in the Chester Cup and, if he arrives at Ascot in the same form as 12 months ago, 16-1 could be good value.

My second selection is Chapter Seven in the Royal Hunt Cup. These mile handicaps can take a lot of sorting out and the draw often comes along to scupper the best laid plans. However, Chapter Seven is available at 20-1 and is worth a punt at those odds. He has caught the eye by staying on at the end of all three starts this season, notably when an unlucky third in the Newbury Spring Cup. He had previously been sixth in the Lincoln and deserves to pick up one of the big prizes.

My third selection is for the Wokingham Handicap. Admittedly a sharp pin on the day of the race is sometimes as good a way as any to solve this particular puzzle but I’m prepared to take a chance with Jeremy Noseda’s Nocturn. He was just denied at York last time out when he was caught by a horse flashing home on his outside. I felt that he was a little unlucky there and could still be improving.

Royal Ascot

Simenon Gold Cup 16-1 Coral
Chapter Seven Hunt Cup 20-1 Totesport
Nocturn Wokingham 25-1 Coral