Five games, four wins, one draw and no losses: when it comes to Champions League form this season, there’s only one club performing better than the Foxes, and that’s last season’s finalists, Atletico Madrid. Despite being 40/1 outsiders to lift the competition’s trophy with Sun Bets, City looks like a tough team to beat in Europe this season, and they can solidify this reputation further on December 7 when they take on Porto.
By now, Foxes fans and betting experts will know that following the odds is a bad idea when it comes to Leicester City. Last season’s 5,000/1 upset will live in the memories of bookmakers for many years to come, so it’s little surprise that they’re reluctant to go too long on Leicester this season. However, despite kerbing their pessimism and shortening their prices, the odds makers still can’t bring themselves to make City the favourites against Portugal’s finest.
Ranieri’s Men Doing Everything Wrong
Ahead of the match, Porto is the betting favourites with Sky Bet at 4/11. Despite sitting five points behind Leicester in Group G, Porto is the darlings of the betting world. Now, much of the antipathy towards Leicester could be down to their poor performance in the Premier League this season. Although mid-table mediocrity would have been fine for fans a few seasons ago, the title win in 2015/2016 has certainly raised expectations.
Unfortunately, Claudio Ranieri’s men haven’t been able to recreate that magic. In fact, following a shock 2-1 loss to Sunderland, Ranieri told the media that there is “everything wrong” with his side’s current form. Dropping to 15th in the Premier League and boasting the worst title defence stats in history, things aren’t looking good for Leicester at home and the bookies clearly feel this will spill over to the Champions League at some point.
One of the team’s biggest problems so far has been goals or, to put it another way, a lack of goals. When Leicester won the league, Jamie Vardy and his 24 goals made a huge contribution. This season, however, a clean sheet in 16 games has not only led some to brand him a flash in the pan, but it’s left Leicester City floundering. 17 for in the Premier isn’t good enough, despite performing better in the Champions League, they’ve still only scored seven.
Defence Standing Strong Despite Poor Form
Now, all clouds have a silver lining and for Leicester City in the Champions League, it’s been goals conceded. Although they might not be pinging in goals from all angles, Kasper Schmeichel has only had to pick the ball out of the net once. Of course, a wrist injury has kept the Danish player on the sidelines since early November, but the fact remains that City has been as strong as anyone defensively this season.
In fact, it’s because of their ability to shut down teams and stifle “superior” players that has allowed City to reach the top of their group. However, there comes a point when absorbing pressure from elite level teams becomes too much, and Porto could be the team to finally bust open the obvious cracks in Ranieri’s team.
Porto hasn’t lost in eight games and manager Nuno Espírito Santo looks to have found a way to bring the best out in the likes of keeper Iker Casillas and striker Andre Miguel Valente Silva. However, much like City, Porto haven’t exactly been prolific in front of goal. In fact, a 3-0 win over Arouca back in October is the most the team has scored in a single game over their last eight games.
Don’t Expect Goals Galore
On paper, this match looks as though it will be a war of attrition. With neither side prone to leaks at the back, goals will probably be scarce, which is why Sun Bets’ 11/1 on 0-0 looks to have some value. However, while it’s fair to expect a lack of goals, it’s also important to remember that City is on the back foot.
Poor performances in the Premier League sit in contrast to Porto’s recent unbeaten streak, and that could be the difference in this match. Yes, 9/1 on a Leicester win with Ladbrokes looks to be an attractive price given their Champions League form to date, but Porto clearly has the edge in terms of recent wins.
Perhaps the best value bets for this one are the scorecasts in favour of Porto. 1-0 (5/1) or 2/1 (8/1) with Sun Bets certainly look promising. But, if you’re really looking to cover all the bases, Sky Bets’ “Porto to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1” is possibly the pick of the bunch at 11/8.
Whichever way this match goes, the one thing we can be confident about is that there won’t be a glut of goals. Of course, the two teams could surprise us, but given their current strike rates, it’s fair to say that whoever comes away with a result is unlikely to do so by more than a single goal.
