Over two months ago I put up Dandino (33-1) and Simenon (25-1) and both have made it safely to the big race. Better still, they have come through their prep races with flying colours and survived the lottery of the draw! It is an incredibly hot race this year and there are plenty of dangers. If you haven’t “played” yet, I wouldn’t put you off either horse and still think Dandino offers some value at a top price of 11-1 with 888Sport.
European runners enjoyed a fantastic Breeders’ Cup and I’m pleased to say that we came out on top with three winners from six selections including the impressive Outstrip at 6-1. It was so nearly four but The Fugue was just run out of it by Magician in the closing stages. Ryan Moore was at his brilliant best and his confidence will be sky high as he gets the leg up on Dandino.
As I mentioned previously, I have been impressed with Fiorente all the way through his preparation and expect him to be in the frame whilst Sea Moon is the class horse of the race. He may not have won over this trip yet but he stayed well enough to finish third in the St Leger in 2011 and he may have had a bit up his sleeve in the Herbert Power. I’m taking the best odds on those two as “cover bets” but will be cheering on Dandino and Simenon at 4.00am UK time!
Dandino 33-1*
Simenon 25-1*
Sea Moon 14-1 Coral
Fiorente 15-2 888Sport
*Ante-post advised
Complete Guide to the 24 runners
Fawkner
The Caulfield Cup winner held off the late challenge of Dandino but I’d be disappointed if the placings are not reversed this time. Dandino had to overcome a terrible draw whilst Fawkner had a pretty clear run. He is one of six Lloyd Williams runners and certainly has the form to make the first four at least.
Dunaden
The winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012 but has not shown quite the same sparkle this year. Jamie Spencer has teamed up with him this season and faces an interesting challenge from barrier 1. Not one for me but still a great favourite with Melbourne Cup fans.
Green Moon
Green Moon added his name to Just A Dash (1981), What A Nuisance (1985) and Efficient (2007) as the fourth winner of the race owner Lloyd Williams. He’s slipped into the field almost unnoticed this year and his Cox Plate rate was not that far behind last year’s effort. His loyal followers will be hoping for a good run at a big price.
Red Cadeaux
If Trainer Ed Dunlop has started to joke about Red Cadeaux’s age catching up with him and any lingering hopes of finally getting his head in front must have disappeared with the 23 draw. As admirable as he is, there is surely going to be something more sprightly to beat him this year.
Sea Moon
A high class colt for Sir Michael Stoute in England, he won the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot and was second in the Breeders’ Cup. He seems to have adapted well to his new surroundings and is going to be a real threat if he stays the trip. Simenon was not far behind him in the Herbert Power but Sea Moon gave the impression that he could have found more if needed.
Super Cool
All of Super Cool’s form is over shorter distances and this is a real shot in the dark. A fading fifth in the Cox Plate didn’t offer any clues as to his prospects of lasting out here and looks a big outsider
Voleuse De Coeurs
Voleuse De Coeurs did not seem anything special until blitzing the field by six lengths in the Irish St Leger. The four-year-old was immediately snapped up in a private deal and sent out to Australia specifically for this race. There are no doubts on stamina but a 21 barrier draw could make things difficult.
Fiorente
Gai Waterhouse is looking for her first win in the Melbourne Cup and Fiorente has been prepared with this race in mind all season. He made his Australian debut in this event 12 months ago and was only beaten a length at odds of 30-1. He has been running on well over trips well short of his best and looks the best of the home challenge.
Hawkspur
Hawkspur caught the eye when flying through up the inside to finish fifth in the Turnbull Stakes but a wide draw in the Caulfield Cup again left him too much to do. He is a habitual slow starter and anyone supporting him will be holding their breath through the early stages. He would need everything to go his way to win this but has the ability.
Tres Blue
Most of the attention will be Fiorente for Gai Waterhouse but she also saddles this promising French import. Without a prep run in Australia, so running in the big one first time out just as his stable companion did last year. A Group 2 winner in France and one of the unknown quantities in the field.
Brown Panther
This one is owned by former England soccer international Michael Owen and has already enjoyed big race success this year in the Goodwood Cup. He had a minor setback after that race and has had a slightly rushed preparation but has been catching the eye with his trackwork down under. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him sneak into the frame at a big price.
Foreteller
Foreteller burst on to the Melbourne Cup scene with his shock victory over Puissance De Lune in the Makybe Diva Stakes. The big question for his supporters is whether he can stay the Melbourne Cup trip. He made eye-catching late headway to finish fourth in the Cox Plate and will be one of several hoping for a sedate gallop.
Ethiopia
Most of the field go into the race on the back of a good recent run but that cannot be said of Ethiopia. He was beaten 64 lengths when finishing last 12 months ago but that was due to an injury. If this one pops up it will be a great result for the bookies!
Dandino
Anyone who reads my posts will know that I have been following this fellow all season and am sitting on a 33-1 voucher. He won the American St Leger in good style prior to running a cracker in the Caulfield Cup and jockey Ryan Moore is in flying form. I’m surprised that he is still as high as 11-1 in the UK and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.
Verema
His Highness the Aga Khan has his first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup and it is by no means impossible that he could win it. Verema is trained by Alain de Royer Dupre of Americain fame and this filly has a very similar profile. I very nearly included her in my cover bets and it would not surprise me in the least if she is in the first four.
Mourayan
Trainer Robert Hickmott has better claims with Sea Moon, Fawkner, Green Moon, Seville and Masked Marvel. Mourayan did win the Sydney Cup so he has the stamina but it would be a major shock if he proved good enough to win.
Seville
Seville was up to classic standard when trained by Aidan O’Brien, beaten only by Treasure Beach in the Irish Derby in 2011. He was absolutely slammed by Sea Moon in the Great Voltigeur and has had his problems since going to Australia. Has been well backed in the past couple of weeks so a big run cannot be ruled out.
Dear Demi
Dear Demi won the Group 2 Furious Stakes and later chased home Commanding Jewel in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. She enjoyed Group 1 success in the Crown Oaks at Flemington last year but is unproven over this distance. Only last weekend she just failed to peg back Side Glance in the Group One Mackinnon Stakes and this race may come too quickly.
Mount Athos
I was a big supporter of this one last year but a poor draw and a bumpy ride sealed his fate, eventually running on into fifth. Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani has been second with Purple Moon (2007) and Bauer (2008) but insists that Mount Athos is better than either of those. His response to another wide draw was very succinct – “damn it!” I fear that he will again struggle to get involved from barrier 22.
Royal Empire
Godolphin’s quest for a Melbourne Cup winner started way back in 1998 and Royal Empire is their only surviving entry this year. He won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury but has been beaten twice since. Kerrin McEvoy will give him a good ride but a place may be the best that he can hope for.
Masked Marvel
The 2011 English St Leger has been slow to find his form in Australia but, in truth, he had lost his way in Europe long before he arrived down under. He would need to produce his best effort for a long time in order to feature here and will need a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play.
Simenon
If Dandino doesn’t win it, then I’m hoping that Simenon does. He is certainly better than a 25-1 shot judged on his fine effort when third in the Herbert Power Stakes. I am a little concerned at Richard Hughes having to sweat down to his lowest weight for the ride but Simenon can be ridden from anywhere and does have a finishing kick.
Ibicenco
The German-bred has just snatched a place by virtue of his win in a particularly weak looking renewal of the Geelong Cup. He was no great shakes when trained by Luca Cumani and I would be surprised if he proves good enough here.
Ruscello
On all known form, 50-1 is a fair price for the Lexus Stakes winner. Even his connections seriously doubted that he could make the line-up and they have Kerrin McEvoy to thank for his brilliant front-running ride on Saturday.
