Tag: football betting

Can Stoke Tame the Toffees?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

There are some matches in the Premier League that are tough to call. Stoke City versus Everton is one of them. The Stoke manager Mark Hughes must be one of the most underrated managers in the top division. For several seasons he has guided Stoke well clear of the drop zone and into mid-table safety. That kind of record doesn’t get talked about, but keeping a club at that level in what is the most competitive league in world football is no mean feat.

His Stoke team host Everton and both teams are going into this match on the back of impressive results. Stoke was seconds away from beating Manchester United before Wayne Rooney scored a spectacular stoppage time equaliser. Stoke City have 28pts from 22 games and are currently 16pts clear of the drop zone. So once again, they are well clear of any potential relegation threat.

Koeman has Transformed Everton

Everton will prove to be very tough opposition for Stoke despite having home advantage at the Bet365 Stadium. Since the beginning of December, Everton has lost twice in the league. They were unlucky to lose 3-2 at Watford and the Merseyside derby at home to Liverpool. They gained a creditable draw against Manchester United but have recorded some positive wins since then.

This includes beating Arsenal and Leicester away in December while also beating Southampton and Crystal Palace in January. The “jewel in the crown” with regards to their recent results was their 4-0 hammering of Manchester City. This has left Everton in seventh place just five points behind Manchester United.

Backing Stoke is Clear Value

There is very little to choose between these two teams. Everton clearly has a slight edge but with Stoke having home advantage then value should be easy to find. Once again it is worth repeating that Stoke was seconds away from beating Manchester United. The gap between Stoke and Everton is a mere eight points. You can get almost 2-1 on a Stoke City victory as Betfred quote odds of 15-8.

You can also get odds of 12-5 on the draw with BetVictor who also quote 8-5 on an Everton victory. Both of these teams lack a top class proven finisher. So the odds of 6-5 from BetVictor that both teams will not score may be of interest. If you expect either team to win by the odd goal then PaddyPower quote 17-2 for a 1-0 win for Everton while Bet365 quote odds of 9-1 for a 1-0 win for Stoke.

Arsenal vs. Burnley: Will Wenger’s Men Prove Too Strong?

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If you’re a Burnley fan, or just a canny punter looking for a bargain bet, you may be prepping yourself for a tough match on Sunday. Heading to Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium is never fun for any team, so when you’re a relatively small club like Burnley, this sort of fixture is always going to be tough.

However, just before you hold your hands up in despair, it’s worth noting that Burnley’s record against the Gunners isn’t that bad. In fact, since the two clubs first locked horns in 1896, Burnley has won 38 games, drawn 21 and lost 48. The optimistic among you will have already spotted that these stats mean Burnley have come away with at least a point on more occasions than they haven’t.

Recent Results Mean More than History as a Whole

Now, it’s fair to say that most of the positive results were recorded a few years ago (quite a few in some cases) and in recent times the Clarets haven’t fared as well. In fact, the last five meetings between the two clubs have all gone Arsenal’s way. With this being the case, the question for all betting bods then becomes: can Burnley roll back the clock and produce a vintage performance on January 22, or will Arsenal reconfirm their modern superiority?

Before we answer that question, let’s take a quick look at the outright betting markets. As it stands, Arsenal will start the game as favourites according to Sun Bets. With the home side a commanding 2/11 and the visitors way out of town at 12/1, the odds would suggest this match is only going to go one way. However, despite the betting markets not favouring the northern side, Sean Dyche’s men are far from pushovers.

Burnley Have Pushed the Top Dogs on Numerous Occasions

Yes, Turf Moor has been something of a fortress and provided the majority of Burnley’s best performances this season, but the club’s away form hasn’t been terrible. In fact, over the last five games, Burnley has only lost twice to Tottenham away (2-1) and Manchester City away (2-1). Narrow losses to two of the top sides in the country on their home patches are nothing to be ashamed of.

Of course, prior form against top competition on the road doesn’t necessarily mean Dyche and his men can do the same against Arsenal. But, if we’re going to put our necks on the line, at least one goal for Burnley isn’t out of the question. Now, stopping the likes of Ozil and Giroud from scoring two or more won’t be easy, but the least we can expect is Burnley to bring the pressure.

Odds Favour Arsenal but there’s Value in Burnley

From a betting perspective, Paddy Power’s 4/9 on over 2.5 goals isn’t a bad shout, but Joey Barton to score anytime at 13/2 with Coral looks to be the value bet of the day. With a goal against Southampton in the side’s last Premier League outing, Barton proved that he’s not quite done with top flight football just yet.

Yes, there was a deflection on the free-kick, but his effort in the middle of the park throughout the game was impressive (especially at 34-years-old) and that could earn him an opportunity at the Emirates. However, if we accept Barton to score anytime as a punt with some value, then a “banker” bet for this match looks something like Arsenal to win 2-1. Sun Bets currently has that result priced at 17/2, while the similar (and possibly more likely) 2-0 is 11/2.

Overall, it’s hard to see passed Arsenal in this one. With a 4-0 win last time out against Swansea, Arsene Wenger’s men are certainly fighting hard for second place this season. This sort of form, combined with previous results and a clear gap in quality, should see Arsenal secure a comfortable win. The question, on this occasion, is by how many goals.

Man United vs. Liverpool: Will United Make a Comeback?

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Man United vs. Liverpool is a proverbial titans clash, and one of the most hotly contested derby matches in world football looks set to be another screamer on January 15. Heading into the match, Liverpool is certainly the form team. However, despite four places separating them in the Premier League, the gulf between the two teams might not be as wide as some would think.

In overall terms, Liverpool is currently outpacing their Premier League rivals with 44 points to 39. Now, as any football aficionado will tell you, a six-point gap after 20 games might as well be 60 points when you’re fighting for the title. With the top teams barely losing more than a handful of games each season, hoping to secure two wins while your closest rival slips twice are almost futile.

Of course, overcoming a six-point gap is not impossible, it’s just improbable. Just how improbable? Well, according to Sun Bets experts, the chances of United overtaking Liverpool and the rest of the top five is 16/1. In contrast, Jurgen Klopp’s men are currently the 9/2 second-favourites for the title behind Chelsea (3/4).

It’s Closer than You Think

So, if United’s chances of closing the gap are just improbable and not impossible, it also stands to reason that they have a chance of winning on Sunday. Before we break down the best bets, let’s take a quick look at the numbers. Yes, Liverpool has opened up a sizeable points gap. But, when you look at the individual numbers, United isn’t that far off the pace.

Liverpool’s 13 wins aren’t drastically better than United’s 11. Similarly, United’s three losses are only one more than Liverpool’s two. In fact, when we look at goals against, United actually have the upper hand with 19 against vs. 23 against. OK, so what does this tell us? Well, the first thing to note is that things aren’t as bad at United as people may have first assumed.

Thanks to an unfortunate combination of past achievements, current expectations and sensationalist media coverage, United’s drop in form over the last season or so has been characterised as disastrous. While it’s fair to say it’s a far cry from the Ferguson glory days, it’s also true that it’s not a disaster.

In fact, if we accept this fact and remove our emotions from the situation, it quickly becomes clear that United has a chance in this match. Moreover, when we factor in that this match will take place at Old Trafford, it seems any initial assumptions that this will be a comfortable win for Liverpool seem to fade away.

Odds Favour United

If nothing else, Man United vs. Liverpool will be a close, competitive match. In fact, the bookmakers seem to agree. Despite the Premier League table, recent form and fan fever suggesting Liverpool is primed to clinch the latest derby match, the odds tell a different story. For those wanting the best outright price in the current conditions, William Hill is offering 11/4 on Liverpool and 23/20 on United.

A tenner on the former at that price would return you £37.50, while the same on the latter would give you £21.50. Of course, with the gap between the two teams being tighter than many would assume, a draw could also be on the cards this weekend. Coral’s odds makers are offering 9/4 on a stalemate, as is William Hill. For a touch more value, Sun Bets will give you 23/10 on a draw, which means £10 could be worth £33.

Look for the Sensational Comeback

However, with this match promising to deliver on all fronts, it seems wise to look beyond the outrights and towards some specifics. Both teams to score at 3/4 with Sun Bets looks a strong, if not fairly uninspiring shout.

For our money, though, United to win from behind looks a tasty proposition. There’s no doubt Liverpool is going to travel to Manchester with the bit between their teeth. Recent form and Premier League superiority will allow Klopp’s men to come out firing, and if likes of Firmino can start strong, an early goal is a distinct possibility.

However, with United on a run of five wins and the home crowd backing them, a comeback will always be likely. Yes, it could end in a draw, but with odds of 10/1 on United coming from behind to win, it seems that it’s worth taking a punt on the more outlandish outcome.

Whatever the result, Man United vs. Liverpool will be another high-octane match. But, if you’re looking for a cheeky punt, a few quid on United to steal the show should give you a few more reasons to smile come the final whistle.

City Facing Massive Test of Title Credentials at Goodison

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Manchester City will travel to Goodison Park to face Everton on Sunday afternoon intent on maintaining their title challenge in the wake of Chelsea’s 2-0 loss to Tottenham in their last Premier League fixture.

The league leaders defeat at White Hart Lane ended a run of 13 straight league victories and reopened the door for the likes of City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United in their quest to challenge for the title. City is currently still available at 7/1 with Coral to claim a fifth league title in Pep Guardiola’s maiden season in charge.

City aiming to reduce seven-point deficit

With fourth-placed City still trailing Chelsea by seven points, Guardiola will be desperate for his team to take all three points back to Manchester. Toffees boss Ronald Koeman, meanwhile, will hope his players can sustain the club’s challenge for a top six finish and possible European football next season with a win to better the 1-1 draw they achieved in Manchester back in October.

City will go into the match without midfielder Fernandinho who received his marching orders for the second time this season in City’s hard-fought 2-1 victory over Burnley at the Etihad last time out. Ilkay Gundogan is the only other player likely to miss out for City while Everton will have to make do without injured duo Maarten Stekelenburg and summer signing Yannick Bolasie.

No easy task for Guardiola’s men

Guardiola’s men lost 1-0 to title rivals Liverpool on their last trip to Merseyside on New Year’s Eve, their third defeat on the road this season, while Everton boasts an impressive home record with just a solitary defeat, also to neighbours Liverpool to blot their copybook.

The hosts’ good home form and City’s seven victories on the road suggest this will be a close encounter. Last weekend saw Everton exit the FA Cup at the first hurdle following defeat to Champions Leicester while City made a huge statement of intent hammering West Ham 5-0 in East London to progress to the next round of the famous old cup.

On the back of these results, the bookmakers seem less agreeable to Everton’s chances of denting City’s title charge and place them at a very generous 10/3 to claim the win with bet365 amongst others. The visitors, on the other hand, are priced as short as 4/5 with the same bookmaker to escape Merseyside with all three points.

Goals fest on the cards?

Everton has notched 15 goals in their 10 home league matches so far this season, while City has scored an impressive 22 goals in just 10 matches away from home thus far. With City’s defence looking far from comfortable protecting Claudio Bravo’s goal, however, the odds of both teams scoring is a modest 8/13 with Ladbrokes which suggests the bookies are anticipating goals.

Big money returns could be yielded from a punt on who gets that all important first goal. Everton’s main man Romelu Lukaku and City’s forward sensation Sergio Aguero have both helped themselves to 11 goals in the league so far, which makes odds from Skybet of 11/2 for the Belgian and 3/1 for the Argentine to open the scoring on Sunday extremely tempting.

Southampton vs. West Brom – Tense, Exciting Battle for Mid-Table

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Two teams in solid form coming together in what will be a tactical and potentially cagey mid-table battle between two effective and organised squads.

Clash of the Overachievers

Southampton and West Brom have undoubtedly been two of the surprise packages of the season so far. Having seen second summer of transfer raids on St Mary’s, and a third managerial regime change in 3 successive seasons, Southampton were being tipped at the beginning of this season for possible decline.

Currently sitting in 7th place after a good run of form, taking 10 points in the last 5, and progressing in the EFL Cup with a 2:0 win away to Arsenal, Claude Puel is proving those critics wrong. A poor showing in the Europa League could end up being a mixed blessing for a side looking to finish in a solid Premier League position while competing in 2 domestic cups. Southampton has a game in hand over West Brom, playing Tottenham on Wednesday night in their post-Christmas fixture. This will be an important game for Puel, as a defeat here could spell the end of any hopes for his team to finish in a top 6 position, while a victory will see them keep pace while doing damage to an immediate rival.

Against West Brom, the Frenchman will have to deal with some absences: with Jordy Clasie definitely out and Alex McCarthy in doubt, as well as long-term injuries for Charlie Austin and Matt Targett. Having only 3 days between their previous game, as opposed to West Brom’s 5, could have an impact on overall squad fitness.

Getting back to their best

West Brom is currently 8th, only one point behind Southampton, having played one more. The Baggies will be looking to pick up important points in a game they have every reason to believe they can win, or at least take points. Tony Pulis’ squad have had some tough recent fixtures, playing Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea in the last four, with their win against Swansea the only bright point in a gruelling winter period. A closer look at those games, however, demonstrates an organised and capable West Brom side. Against both Arsenal and Chelsea, they only lost by one goal conceded in the last 10 minutes, and they weren’t exactly overwhelmed by United. Pulis generally puts his back to the wall against the bigger clubs, while targeting teams below or around him to try for consolidated results, and he will very much want to take 3 points in this last game of December.

West Brom is amongst the fittest squads in the League, with all first team players available, apart from Saido Berhino who hasn’t played a role so far this season.

Where is the value?

We have seen a clean sheet in the last eight games these two have played, and the last nine games split evenly with each team taking 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. Picking a result seems to be quite a challenge, with West Brom having the edge in fitness, but Southampton having the home advantage.

It’s very hard to imagine this being a particularly high scoring game; Southampton has one of the lowest BTTS ratings in the league, as well as a good run of home clean sheets. BTTS/No and Under 2.5 goals looking like solid picks, they are both at 8/13 on Bet365. Some outside bets on a correct score could be interesting, with Southampton 1:0 and 2:0 at 19/4 and 7/1 respectively on BetVictor.

 

Can the Tigers tame the Toffees?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Hull City vs Everton may not be a fixture to arouse the passion except if you come from Hull or Liverpool. However, there are a few interesting bets on offer and is the reason why we are previewing this game. Hull have had a tough season so far. They are clearly going to be one of the teams that will either get relegated or escape by the skin of their teeth. Losing Steve Bruce was a blow and they no longer look the same team without his guidance. Mike Phelan came in to steady the boat but his lack of managerial experience as a number one is proving to be costly.

Time to Make a Move

Hull dare not risk a gap developing at the bottom of the table. History tells us that teams that sit bottom of the league on New Years’ Day rarely survive. Hull City host Everton in what will be a vital festive programme for the Tigers. Everton has been inconsistent of late and the injury time loss to close rivals Liverpool didn’t help.

There are several interesting bets on offer that represent value. Firstly we can see odds of 19-5 from BetVictor for a Hull City victory. Everton has certainly been stronger than Hull this season. The key question is does that really convert to such poor odds for the home team in this fixture? To find odds of almost 4-1 for a home team to win a Premier League fixture is a rarity.

Everton is certainly well below the level of the top clubs and odds of 19-5 do seem like value. The problem with taking such a bet is that Hull is not playing well enough to win many games. You can also get odds of 13-5 on the draw with BetVictor which is another great value bet in our opinion.

Can Everton be backed for Value?

If there is value in backing Hull and the draw then you clearly cannot have it all ways. Something has to give. By sheer definition, backing Everton cannot be value. You can get odds of 4-5 for an Everton victory with Ladbrokes. Those odds are too short given the inconsistency of Everton’s season and the fact that they are the away team.

Even if Everton should prevail and take all three points, those odds are still too short. Betting is about finding the best value bets and not just identifying which team is likely to win. Mike Phelan must realise that his team clearly needs to push on after Christmas and start picking up regular points.

Hull will need to reach at least 35pts to have a realistic chance of surviving. Their current points per game total leave them short of that figure. If Mike Phelan cannot get an increased effort from his players then he could well be the next Premier League manager to get the sack.