Tag: football betting

Patriots and Raiders battling it out for AFC top spot

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The final chapter in the regular NFL season begins on New Year’s Day and fans can look forward to an action-packed schedule full of intrigue. In the AFC the New England Patriots and the Oakland Raiders are locked in a fierce battle to emerge as number one seed and enjoy the home-field advantage that comes with it. If New England beat the Miami Dolphins, they will clinch that valuable status, but it will be easier said than done. The Raiders travel to the Denver Broncos, knowing they could end up as number one seed or fall to number five, so that is another crucial game.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The Pats are on a six-game winning streak and have the best record in the league, leading the bookmakers to install them as favourites for the Super Bowl. William Hill has the best price, 15/8, with the Cowboys back on 4/1. New England is huge favourites to win the AFC, odds-on with all bookmakers, with 8/11 about the best price you can find with the likes of Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes. But the path to the Super Bowl will be made a lot easier for them if they earn top seed spot. Last season they blew number one spot with back-to-back losses in their last two games, against the Jets and Dolphins. The result was a tricky playoff schedule that saw them crash out to eventual Super Bowl champions the Denver Broncos.

They will be desperate to not make the same mistake this season and they know that a win over the Dolphins in their final game will clinch it. The Dolphins laboured badly against the Buffalo Bills in their last game but won it in overtime to secure a playoff berth. They are currently sixth seeds and will face the most difficult schedule, but if they win and the Chiefs lose, they move up to fifth and will avoid the Steelers in the playoffs, securing an easier tie against the Texans. They will be well up for this game, and it should prove to be a thriller. Many expect it to be close, but Dolphins’ quarterback Matt Moore is likely to struggle against the Pats’ outstanding defence, and New England can cover a -7 spread at 8/13 with Sky Bet after easily covering a record spread against the Jets last week.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are in the postseason for the first time since 2002 and went 12-3 with a 33-25 win over the Colts in week 16, but it came at a huge cost. Derek Carr’s broken fibula is a brutal blow for Oakland fans, who have waited so long for a return to the playoffs and rightly had Super Bowl dreams with Carr leading the charge. Now they have to make do with fourth-year pro Matt McGloin as his replacement and the odds on them winning the Super Bowl went out sharply. They are now as long as 28/1 to win it with Ladbrokes and nobody is giving them much of a chance. But a win at the already eliminated Broncos, whose Super Bowl defence went out with a whimper with a 33-10 defeat in Kansas City, would give McGloin confidence, and it is essential for the Raiders to get the win as the Chiefs are still in with a great chance of pipping them to the AFC West. William Hill has 4/5 on them covering a -3 spread and that looks a good bet as the Broncos are on a three-game losing streak and playing poorly.

Tottenham Looking to End Poor Away Form Against Southampton

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Southampton and Tottenham return to Premier League business on Wednesday evening when they clash at St. Mary’s following a welcome 10-day break from action for both clubs.

The match does, however, signal the start of a busy festive period in the top division as Saints prepare for three matches in just six days while Spurs contemplate three fixtures in a slightly more favourable eight days.

Claude Puel’s team will be looking to extend their impressive home form which has seen them lose just once in eight matches on home soil in the league this season to Premier League pacesetters Chelsea.

Tottenham, lying fifth in the table meanwhile, will be seeking to end a poor run of away form which has seen them collect just three points on the road from their last five league matches.

Mauricio Pochettino returns to the south coast for only the second time since his acrimonious departure from Southampton for White Hart Lane in the summer of 2014. And the Argentine will be hoping his team can close the gap on the teams above them in the table with all three points, just as he did on his maiden return to his former employers last December.

Southampton boss Puel will be without top goalscorer Charlie Austin who has gone under the knife for surgery on a shoulder injury which is likely to keep him sidelined for anything up to four months. Austin’s absence could give Jay Rodriguez another opportunity to start after his brace of goals last time out inspired Southampton to a 3-1 win over local rivals Bournemouth.

Spurs, on the other hand, go into the match boasting an almost full strength squad with former Saints defender Toby Alderweireld and Dutch forward Vincent Janssen back to fitness, leaving just Erik Lamela still unavailable as he nurses a long-term hip injury.

Despite their iffy away form, Spurs will go into the match boasting a strong recent record at St. Mary’s. Three wins and a draw from their last four trips to the south coast should give Pochettino confidence that his team can finally turn around their dismal recent away form. Southampton though has to go all the way back to 2005 for their last home victory over Spurs.

Southampton with eight goals in eight home matches this season, and Spurs, who despite their poor recent record have still notched 10 goals on their travels, gives great value to the both teams to score market at Yes 1.80 on Betway.

Elsewhere, with Harry Kane starting to find the net with increasing regularity for the North London outfit recently, the England international is tempting at 9/2 with bet365 to net first on Wednesday evening.

Liverpool vs. Stoke: Can PMA Upset Liverpool?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With an extra day to sleep off the Christmas turkey, Liverpool’s finest will be looking to move a few steps closer to Chelsea in the Premier League race when they welcome Stoke on December 27.

With a hard-fought win over Everton in their last outing, Jurgen Klopp’s men will be hoping for more of the same against Stoke and the stats suggest that could be the case. If we look back through time, Liverpool has dominated Stoke at home. Although away trips haven’t been quite as bountiful, Liverpool has managed to win 48 of their last 65 ties against The Potters.

That sort of home form, combined with Liverpool’s recent run in the Premier League has naturally led Sun Bets’ odds makers to price the Merseyside as the heavy favourites ahead of the match. Currently priced at 2/7, the odds would suggest this will be one of the most one-sided festive matches this season.

It’s About More than Numbers for Hughes

However, do the numbers really tell the whole story? Well, according to manager Mark Hughes, last January’s League Cup exploits could be just the confidence boost his players need. Although Stoke ultimately lost on penalties in the semi-final, they did “win” the match 1-0 during normal time. Had it not been for aggregate goals from the previous leg, Hughes’ men might have made it to the final.

Unfortunately, fate would have it that they fell just short, but Hughes believes that his players can replicate that performance on the 27th. Speaking to the local press, Hughes claimed it was “belief” that helped clinch that match and that his team will be heading to Anfield without any pressure.

“We went there with a real determination and a key element to our performance was belief. We will go there with a positive mindset, not apprehension, and give it a go. There’s no pressure on us and we never go there with the intention of protecting what we’ve got,” Hughes told the Stoke Sentinel.

If PMA (positive mental attitude) can overcome the skill gap, then a tenner on Stoke at 9/1 with bet365 would make a nice late Christmas present. But, with news that referee Michael Oliver will be taking charge of the game, that positive mindset could be in danger of fading fast by the time the two teams kickoff.

When PMA Isn’t Enough

Oliver became something of a pantomime villain at Stoke after a dodgy penalty decision allowed Everton to score from the spot and earn a narrow victory. Although that incident took place on the other side of Liverpool, it’s something many travelling Stoke fans will remember and that could easily create the sort of negative vibes manager Hughes wants to avoid.

Of course, the players will have slightly more pressing issues on their minds when the game starts, but there’s always a chance Oliver’s presence could leave a lingering doubt in their minds. If that’s the case and Hughes’ only saving grace is a positive mindset, then Stoke could really be in trouble on the 27th.

Taking the outright odds out of the equation as they’re simply too short to offer much value, the bets of the day looks to be Liverpool win by one of the following score lines:

2-0 = 6/1 at Ladbrokes

3-0 = 7/1 at Ladbrokes

3-1 = 9/1 at Ladbrokes

Liverpool has already scored 41 this season and conceded just 20 which suggests they’ve got plenty of firepower in the tank. Although Stoke has only conceded 24, their strike rate is just 19 Premier League goals. Taking this into account, it looks unlikely the Potters will get a sniff of the net at Anfield. Yes, Liverpool might not have it all their own way, but once the floodgates open this one could turn into a riot.

For the most value, 2-0 looks to be a wise investment, but if you’re looking for something a little juicier and believe we might get a Christmas cracker, 3-1 at the price is a great shout.

Key Boxing Day Match for Arsenal

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This Boxing Day we see West Brom travel to the Emirates to take on an Arsenal side reeling for 2 consecutive league defeats. Having taken the lead in both games, Wenger will be furious that he has allowed a 9 point gap to open between his team and Chelsea. West Brom comes into this game on the back of decent form, and having lost to both Chelsea and Man United in recent games, they will be looking to Arsenal to take a scalp against one of the top teams in the league.

Getting back on track

The game against City was a real chance to keep up with the leaders while doing damage to an immediate rival, but it wasn’t to be; as against Everton in their previous game, Arsenal fell to another disappointing defeat. Their second half capitulation at the Etihad has led to some serious soul-searching, with Mesut Ozil coming under focus for a lacklustre display, and Wenger deflecting that criticism onto others in his team. Arsenal fans are looking for results rather than excuses, and a home game against West Brom seems to be the opportunity to regroup.

Looking at the head to head records we can see Arsenal have a strong pedigree of beating Albion: 14 victories, 3 draws and 3 losses for Wenger’s team, and West Brom haven’t beaten them away since 2010.

Arsenal can add Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Shkodan Mustafi to a growing list of first team players out with injuries. In-form Alexis Sanchez and Theo Walcott will be available, and the focus will be on Ozil, Granit Xhaka and Francis Coquelin to make big improvements on their performances in Manchester.

Tony Pulis looking for one up against an old rival

The bitter feud between these two managers has cooled in recent years, but no doubt will Pulis be hoping to take some valuable points away against a man of whom he once said “I’ve got nothing against foreign managers, they are very nice people. Apart from Arsene Wenger.”

West Brom have been in solid form this far, sitting pretty in 8th place, they have had a tough run of games leading up to Christmas, and while there is no shame in their losses to Chelsea and United, Pulis will be looking to improve on those performances to take at least a point in North London.

West Brom has a mostly fit squad, with only Jonny Evans and James Morrison of their regular starters in doubt.

Where is the value?

It’s likely that we will see another rearguard display from Pulis’ boys. While West Brom has been fairly free-scoring against teams they are more confident of a result against, we have seen a much more cautious, organised approach against the bigger club. It’s likely that they will allow Arsenal the majority of possession while hoping to do some damage in the air from set pieces.

Arsenal to win is at 1/3 with Bet365, so it might be worth enhancing these odds, and seeing as West Brom failed to score against either Chelsea or United it could be worth taking Arsenal to Win BTTS/No at 6/5. I think this game will really depend on how Arsenal turn out on the day; if they can fire themselves up to get a result they desperately need, then they should be able to take all the points with minimal fuss. But should the flaky, unreliable Arsenal we have seen all too much of in recent times turn up, then there could be value in backing West Brom on a double chance at 2/1 with William Hill, but this is definitely an outside chance.

 

NFC Conference: Giants and Packers look like good outside bets

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The race to reach the playoffs is heating up, with just two games to play and several spots still up for grabs. In the NFC, the Cowboys and the Seahawks have already made it through, while the Giants look good for a wildcard spot. The second wildcard spot will either come from the NFC North or NFC South, divisions in which it looks set to go down to the wire. The Lions, Packers, Falcons and Buccaneers are now essentially fighting it out for the final three NFC playoff places, although the Vikings and Redskins also have an outside chance. There are several exciting games to look forward to and plenty of good value for punters in week 16.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

The early game next weekend sees the Giants travel to Philadelphia, and they will be buoyed by a two-game winning streak built on a truly formidable defence. They have gone 27 drives without yielding a single touchdown, including an entire game against the Dallas Cowboys, who are second favourites to win the Super Bowl. They were superb in beating the Lions 17-6 last weekend and Odell Beckham Jr looked unplayable at times, capping a great performance with a one-handed touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. Philadelphia has lost five in a row and threw it away against the Ravens last weekend by going for a two-point conversion right at the death, a plan that failed. They are done for the season and should have no chance against the Giants, who should cover a -3 spread, with Paddy Power offering a generous 21/20 on this.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The Packers are the form team of the conference at the moment, on a four-game winning streak that has taken them to within a game of the Lions at the top of the NFC North. The Lions were tamed by the Giants last time out to leave them 9-5, while the Vikings have gone from 4-6 to 8-6 to leave them looking good either to win the division or claim a wildcard spot. The Vikings are third in the division at 7-7 and have a slim chance of making the postseason, but the Packers can put an end to that by beating them here, and home advantage should help them prevail. Green Bay are on fire at the moment and are just 2/7 to win this with Sky Bet, so for more value back them to cover a -7 spread, with Paddy Power again offering the best price, 21/20.

NFC outrights

The Dallas Cowboys are deservedly favourites to win the conference (they are second favourites to win the Super Bowl after the New England Patriots) at 6/4 with William Hill and Coral as they have the best record in the NFC and will enjoy a bye to the Divisional Round, where they will have home advantage. But the NFC is not as clear cut as the AFC, where the Patriots are head and shoulders above the rest and expected to walk it. The Giants have the second-best record in the conference, but it is their misfortune to be in the same division as the Cowboys, so they look destined for a wildcard spot and will have to do it the hard way. But their recent back to back wins over the Cowboys and the Lions will give them confidence and they look a great bet at 12/1 with William Hill. The Seahawks, 5/2 with Coral, are in with a shout, as are the Falcons (9/1 with William Hill), but the Packers have hit form at just the right time and look a really good outside bet at 9/1 with Coral and Paddy Power. You could spread your stake between the Giants and Packers and be in with a great chance of making a profit.

Liverpool Simply Cannot Afford to Lose

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The Merseyside Derby is one of the most eagerly awaited matches in the English Premier League calendar. This fixture has a long history with many famous matches being played down the years. Merseyside Derbies have even been played out in cup finals too. There were two famous all-Merseyside FA Cup finals within the space of three years in 1986 and 1989. On Monday evening they will be battling for points at Goodison Park. Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp has made a great start to the season. Everton has been solid as well.

Title D-Day for Liverpool

It is only a couple of weeks ago that Liverpool was being spoken of as title challengers. They then had a crushing 4-3 loss at Bournemouth and dropped further points at home to West Ham. Couple this with Chelsea’s brilliant unbeaten run and the Reds are now nine points behind the men from Stamford Bridge. Should they lose this derby on Monday night then it will look increasingly likely that the title could be slipping away before the end of the calendar year.

Liverpool has put in numerous stunning attacking displays this season. Jurgen Klopp has certainly brought exciting times to Anfield. The question is, do Liverpool really have the personnel to challenge for the title? There is a world of difference between challenging in November and being in contention in April. Liverpool is similar to Manchester City in that they are prone to leaking goals. Their capitulation away to Bournemouth was proof of that.

Koeman has steadied the Ship

Everton, on the other hand, has been solid if unspectacular this season. After several recent managerial changes, they clearly needed stability. David Moyes left to go to Old Trafford and Roberto Martinez did well for a while before he was replaced. It is tough to see Everton reaching the top six this season. This match is a tough one to call because it all depends on whether Liverpool can “park the bus” well enough to prevent defensive mistakes.

This has been their Achilles heel this season. Even their goalkeepers have been causing Jurgen Klopp problems. It is clear that Liverpool needs to strengthen their defence. If they cannot do so in time during the January transfer window then the title is surely out of reach this season. William Hill quotes odds of 19-20 for a Liverpool win. Meanwhile, Everton can be backed at 3-1 with PaddyPower and Stan James with the draw at 11-4 with Bet365.

If you are looking for value in these prices then it doesn’t appear to be with Liverpool. Everton will be up for this game. Their loyal fans will not let them put in anything other than a solid display. Jurgen Klopp will be acutely aware that staying nine points behind Chelsea in the table could prove to be terminal for their title chances. The value does seem to be either in the draw at 11-4 or the 3-1 for a home win.