Tag: football betting

Porto vs. Leicester City: A Single Goal Could Win It

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Five games, four wins, one draw and no losses: when it comes to Champions League form this season, there’s only one club performing better than the Foxes, and that’s last season’s finalists, Atletico Madrid. Despite being 40/1 outsiders to lift the competition’s trophy with Sun Bets, City looks like a tough team to beat in Europe this season, and they can solidify this reputation further on December 7 when they take on Porto.

By now, Foxes fans and betting experts will know that following the odds is a bad idea when it comes to Leicester City. Last season’s 5,000/1 upset will live in the memories of bookmakers for many years to come, so it’s little surprise that they’re reluctant to go too long on Leicester this season. However, despite kerbing their pessimism and shortening their prices, the odds makers still can’t bring themselves to make City the favourites against Portugal’s finest.

Ranieri’s Men Doing Everything Wrong

Ahead of the match, Porto is the betting favourites with Sky Bet at 4/11. Despite sitting five points behind Leicester in Group G, Porto is the darlings of the betting world. Now, much of the antipathy towards Leicester could be down to their poor performance in the Premier League this season. Although mid-table mediocrity would have been fine for fans a few seasons ago, the title win in 2015/2016 has certainly raised expectations.

Unfortunately, Claudio Ranieri’s men haven’t been able to recreate that magic. In fact, following a shock 2-1 loss to Sunderland, Ranieri told the media that there is “everything wrong” with his side’s current form. Dropping to 15th in the Premier League and boasting the worst title defence stats in history, things aren’t looking good for Leicester at home and the bookies clearly feel this will spill over to the Champions League at some point.

One of the team’s biggest problems so far has been goals or, to put it another way, a lack of goals. When Leicester won the league, Jamie Vardy and his 24 goals made a huge contribution. This season, however, a clean sheet in 16 games has not only led some to brand him a flash in the pan, but it’s left Leicester City floundering. 17 for in the Premier isn’t good enough, despite performing better in the Champions League, they’ve still only scored seven.

Defence Standing Strong Despite Poor Form

Now, all clouds have a silver lining and for Leicester City in the Champions League, it’s been goals conceded. Although they might not be pinging in goals from all angles, Kasper Schmeichel has only had to pick the ball out of the net once. Of course, a wrist injury has kept the Danish player on the sidelines since early November, but the fact remains that City has been as strong as anyone defensively this season.

In fact, it’s because of their ability to shut down teams and stifle “superior” players that has allowed City to reach the top of their group. However, there comes a point when absorbing pressure from elite level teams becomes too much, and Porto could be the team to finally bust open the obvious cracks in Ranieri’s team.

Porto hasn’t lost in eight games and manager Nuno Espírito Santo looks to have found a way to bring the best out in the likes of keeper Iker Casillas and striker Andre Miguel Valente Silva. However, much like City, Porto haven’t exactly been prolific in front of goal. In fact, a 3-0 win over Arouca back in October is the most the team has scored in a single game over their last eight games.

Don’t Expect Goals Galore

On paper, this match looks as though it will be a war of attrition. With neither side prone to leaks at the back, goals will probably be scarce, which is why Sun Bets’ 11/1 on 0-0 looks to have some value. However, while it’s fair to expect a lack of goals, it’s also important to remember that City is on the back foot.

Poor performances in the Premier League sit in contrast to Porto’s recent unbeaten streak, and that could be the difference in this match. Yes, 9/1 on a Leicester win with Ladbrokes looks to be an attractive price given their Champions League form to date, but Porto clearly has the edge in terms of recent wins.

Perhaps the best value bets for this one are the scorecasts in favour of Porto. 1-0 (5/1) or 2/1 (8/1) with Sun Bets certainly look promising. But, if you’re really looking to cover all the bases, Sky Bets’ “Porto to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1” is possibly the pick of the bunch at 11/8.

Whichever way this match goes, the one thing we can be confident about is that there won’t be a glut of goals. Of course, the two teams could surprise us, but given their current strike rates, it’s fair to say that whoever comes away with a result is unlikely to do so by more than a single goal.

Exciting end to Group A: Can Arsenal finish top?

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Going into the last game of the Champions League group phase sees Arsenal level with Paris St. Germain with 11 points a piece at the top of Group A. Arsenal travels to Switzerland for a tough fixture against Basel, while PSG entertain Ludogorets in France. As the table stands, PSG has the edge over Arsenal in the table due to scoring one more away goal in their two games with Arsenal. In order for the Gunners to take the top spot, PSG will need to drop points at home against Ludogorets. With everything to play for, Arsenal absolutely must deliver a fourth victory in Europe this season.

Can Arsenal finally perform in Europe?

It has been a long time out in the cold for Arsenal, having been eliminated in the Champions League’s Round of 16 in the last six seasons running. A big contributing factor is failing to win their group and drawing a heavyweight straight off the bat – Barcelona last season, and Bayern Munchen for two straight seasons prior to crashing out against Monaco in 2015. Wenger will be desperate to avoid this trend and finish top of the group to potentially draw an opponent with less pedigree. But with it now out of their hands, the Arsenal faithful will need to keep one eye on the game in Paris.

Their form has been fairly solid in Europe so far. Two draws against high-quality PSG, a brace of victories against Ludogorets, at one point winning 2:3, after going two down in the first half, demonstrates an Arsenal with confidence and character perhaps greater than in previous seasons. But as always, their capacity to lose focus and slip up when it matters is still there, waiting, just below the surface.

Having beaten Basel 2:0 in the first fixture, Arsenal will go into the game on Tuesday on a good run of form, knowing that they have the capability to beat their opponents and that only a win will do to go through in top spot.

Fortress Basel

Travelling to Basel is nothing to be scoffed at. Basel has a daunting record against English clubs. Their 1:1 draw against Liverpool in 2014/15 ended a four-game run of victories over English clubs in the Champions League, and Arsenal’s win in September was only their second defeat to English opponents in the Competition. Basel is also currently on a 19 game unbeaten domestic run in the Swiss Super League.

However, It has been a particularly tough European campaign for Basel so far, currently tied on two points with Ludogorets at the bottom of Group A. No points taken against PSG, or in their first game against Arsenal, Basel’s only points have come from two draws with Ludogorets. Crucially, they conceded in their home games against the Bulgarians but drew 0:0 in the away fixture, meaning they will crash out bottom of the group on head-to-head away goals if they are still even on points at 90 minutes on Tuesday. Like Arsenal, they must take points on Tuesday to have any hope to qualify for the Europa.

Value in an Arsenal win?

All this sets up what could likely be an enthralling game, as the two sides will have to throw everything at each other in the slim hope of gaining an edge on their rivals.

Skybet currently has good value on an Arsenal win at 13/10 and 5/2 for a draw. Considering Arsenal have conceded in all but one game in this European campaign, Arsenal/BTTS Yes looks very interesting, 9/2 on Bet365. If you think Arsenal are going to throw it away, Coral has your back with 19/10.

A Bore Draw In Group D

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WHAT was set-up as a final match Group D decider between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich has turned out to be a dead rubber.

The two group giants meet at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday night in a match that looked destined to determine who would top the group, but Atletico have already guaranteed top spot and Bayern will join them in the last 16 with runners-up position and that means this is tough to call.

When scenarios like this arise it’s very hard to gauge which one of the two sides will be taking the match the more serious of the two, and on this occasion, I believe it’s a game that neither side will care too much about.

Bayern Favourites with the Bookies

Bayern has been installed the 1.66 favourites with William Hill, but Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been far from impressive both domestically and in the Champions League.

The five-times champions of Europe were beaten 3-2 in Russia by Rostov in their last Champions League match, and are sitting in second in the domestic table behind surprise leaders Leipzig. With some crucial domestic matches approaching, including a massive home match with the league leaders, Ancelotti may decide to rest players for this dead rubber.

Last season’s Champions League runners-up Atletico have a 100 percent group record, winning all five of their matches only conceding the one goal in the process, and Diego Simone’s side look a big price at the 6.00 to win in Germany.

Atletico is right in the mix yet again in the La Liga shake-up, and at the weekend they have a massive match against Villarreal. With them already guaranteed top spot, that match is certain to take priority. Simone also looks likely to ring the changes, and with doubts surrounding the strength of both sides starting XI’s the draw looks the most appealing play in the match markets at a huge 4.00 with Bet365.

Differing Styles

These two sides are vastly different in the way the play football, with Bayern full of attacking flair and Atletico one of the strongest, if not the strongest defensive units in Europe.

This is a real difficult one to have a strong view on the goal markets as they could throw the shackles off and really go all out, or they could just go through the motions in a low scoring dull affair; I am going to take a chance on the later.

Under 2.5 is 1.91 with Coral, and that has been a winning bet in four of Atletico’s five Champions League matches; at 11.00 with William Hill, I am taking a real left-field punt on no goalscorer in Bavaria.

Manchester City vs. Celtic: Why Pressure Could Upset the Odds

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Manchester City’s season could be on the brink of an implosion unless they can find their form in the Champions League this week. Following an explosive loss to Chelsea in the Premier League, during which Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho were sent off for City, Pep Guardiola’s side looks to be in trouble.

Fourth in the Premier League after 14 games thanks to two losses and three draws, the Sly Blues are starting to look like long shots for domestic success. With that reality starting to set in, the pressure will now be on in the Champions League. Up until this point in the season, City’s fans were able to forgive a lacklustre European campaign because Premier League glory was a distinct possibility.

However, with the tide turning against the Manchester side, expectations in the Champions League will now be heightened. Under normal circumstances, a showdown with Scottish outfit Celtic would be the perfect way for Manchester City to rally and get back on track. But, through a combination of current pressure and previous performances, things might not be so simple when the two sides meet on December 6.

Previous Pressure Could Work Well this Time Around

Last time out it was the Scottish champions who pressed the action inside Celtic Park. Within three minutes the home site went ahead through Moussa Dembele and by halftime the match was poised at 2-2. Although City was able to re-find their form in the second half, the game finished 3-3. Naturally, a point in Group C means different things to different teams, and while Celtic fans went home smiling, the same couldn’t be said for City’s faithful.

Although Guardiola has managed to fire a rocket up his team’s proverbial in subsequent Champions League matches, the fact remains that City are second in the group and in danger of being overtaken by Borussia Mönchengladbach. Whichever way you slice it, City are under pressure and that could tell when the two teams meet this week. Although the latest betting line at Sun Bets would suggest otherwise, this game could actually be closer than many expect.

Indeed, a £10 bet on Man City with Sun Bets would currently return you a relatively meagre profit of £3.33 (1/3 odds). In contrast, £10 the opposite way would net you an infinitely more impressive £85 return (15/2). In fact, when you look out across the rest of the betting world, you’ll see a similar story. Ladbrokes also have Manchester City as the 1/3 and Celtic at 8/1, while Sky Bet will give you identical odds on the Sky Blues but 7/1 on Scotland’s finest.

Don’t Count on the Odds

Of course, as we all know, the odds only tell half the story. We already know that City is a team on the back foot. The recent 3-1 defeat to Chelsea could obviously generate one of two reactions. Either City will come out against Celtic with their heads down, or they’ll be hungry to bounce back and fight for some success this season.

In contrast, Celtic recently came through a similarly explosive match at Motherwell with a 4-3 victory. Although it wasn’t the prettiest of performances, Brendan Rogers’ side did manage to clinch all three points and that could be extremely important on December 6. If we compare City’s and Celtic’s Champions League stats this season, the former’s are far superior. City’s five games, two wins, two draws and one loss is backed up by 11 scored and nine conceded. For Celtic, no wins and 15 goals against are signs of a side struggling to match the firepower of Europe’s top clubs.

Unsurprisingly, it’s these stats which have helped to make Man City the heavy betting favourites. But, if we look beyond the numbers, there could be a glint of optimism for Celtic fans. Unlike City who seemed to falter under the pressure, Celtic came through a heated game with a win. Being able to handle the pressure of a tempestuous game is a sign of a team that knows how to grind out a win in a dogfight.

Some Rough and Tumble Could Suit Celtic

If Celtic can travel to Manchester and drag their opponents into the trenches, they could easily cause an upset. A few crunching tackles, a goal against the run of play or even a refusal to roll over and play dead would really put the pressure on City. In short, any chinks in City’s armour could easily be exposed if things get heated. Now, that’s not to say Celtic will romp home if the home side lose the plot, but it does mean they have a chance.

9/2 on a draw with Sun Bets looks to be a solid bet, but if you really fancy Celtic to rattle an increasingly frail-looking City, 2-1 at 20/1 could be a great shout. Yes, it’s a long shot and no you shouldn’t wager too much on it. However, if you’re looking to add some extra spice to what could be an extremely entertaining game, this could be the way to go.

When all is said and done, Manchester City should come away with a comfortable win on December 6. But, if Celtic can stick the boot in and expose the obvious pressure Guardiola’s men are feeling at the moment, we might well see an upset in the Champions League.

Will Everton vs. Man United Go Down to the Wire?

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Everton and Manchester United may not have been a “crunch” tie in years gone by, but this season’s clash could have major implications for both sides’ Champions League ambitions. When United was riding high under the guidance of Alex Ferguson, a journey to Goodison Park would have been a taxing yet comfortable one.

On December 4, however, United certainly won’t have things all their own way. In fact, if current form holds true, then this could prove to be a game of very fine margins. With United sitting one point ahead of Everton in sixth, Jose Mourinho will be hoping his side can maintain this advantage on Sunday. Unfortunately, if visitors are to start and finish ahead, they’ll have to do it without Wayne Rooney.

Injuries In and Out

Although he’s been far from a talisman for the club this season, Rooney did look like the player of old in United’s recent 4-1 League Cup quarter-final win. After receiving a bashing from the press and the cold shoulder from England, Rooney played like a man possessed. Asserting a determined physicality that we haven’t seen since his teenage years, Rooney could yet add some firepower to United’s lacklustre streak.

However, if he is going to ignite a fire under his teammates, it won’t be against his former club. A fifth yellow card of the season during the West Ham match means Rooney will have to watch from the sidelines. To compound Mourinho’s attacking dilemma, the Red Devils will also have some defensive frailties. Chris Smalling and Eric Bailly are both out with foot injuries.

On the other side of the pitch, Everton will be a man up thanks to the return of James McCarthy. The midfielder could be just the tonic for what’s proven to be a rollercoaster ride for Everton fans this season. Impressive results against Stoke, Middlesbrough and Manchester City have allowed Everton to collect 19 points from 13 games. But, with thumping losses to Chelsea (5-0) and missed opportunities at Crystal Palace and Southampton (twice), the side have looked decidedly shaky at times.

The Stats Can’t Separate Them

McCarthy could add some much-needed stability in the middle of the park, but that might not be enough to stop the advances of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Juan Mata and Paul Pogba. One thing Everton fans can take solace in ahead of the match is that United haven’t been prolific in front of goal. In fact, when you look at goals for and against, Everton and United are almost identical. United’s 18 scored is only marginally better than Everton’s 16, while both are currently poised on 15 conceded.

If we’re to conclude anything from that, it’s that this will be a tight game. Regardless of previous form and results, there is very little to choose between both teams in the stats department. From games won (five apiece), goals and points, the two opposing teams have posted very similar numbers this season.

Taking this into account, it’s easy to see why bet365 is currently hedging its odds between Everton winning and a draw. With 13/5 on the former and 5/2 on the latter, a £10 bet on either would result in a modest return with a fairly low degree of risk. Naturally, United will start the game as the betting favourites and Sun Bets is offering one of the most enticing prices at 11/10.

War of Attrition or a Bore Draw?

Whichever way you look at it, this game will go down to the wire. Injury worries for United are countered with players returning at Everton, while almost identical Premier League stats make it tough to separate the two sides. If that wasn’t enough, the betting odds don’t appear to offer much in the way of a clear favourite.

To really get some value from this game from a betting perspective (based on what we already know), 0-0 at 9/1 with Sun Bets looks to be a strong option. Both sides have shown they’re fairly solid at the back (15 conceded isn’t awful), yet neither have proved to be deadly in front of goal. This would suggest both teams could cancel each other out which, if this proves to be the case, would make a draw (specifically a goalless one) an intriguing proposition.

West Brom vs. Watford – Mid Season, Mid Table Battle

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This Saturday Watford travels to the Hawthorns to take on rival high-flyers West Brom. Both teams are sitting pretty in the top half of the Premier League table, Watford with 18 points and West Brom with 17. Each will be looking to take vital points against a team they will likely be vying against in May, possibly for a place in Europe.

A look at each team’s recent record shows remarkably similar form in the season so far, with both having a fairly even spread of wins, draws and losses. Ahead of a tight game at 15:00 on Saturday, we are taking an in-depth look at the two squads to try and unpick the football betting value.

A Solid Start

West Brom has made an impressive start to the season. Tony Pulis is well regarded a safe pair of hands, having helped steer the course for Stoke and Crystal Palace in becoming established Premier League clubs. His cautious, consistent approach to management has worked well for the Baggies, who are clearly flourishing under his leadership.

West Brom’s form is solid; they perform strongly against mid and lower table teams and have scored in all but three games this season. With four 1:1 draws so far, they have an ability to scrap for points when it counts. A 2:1 home win against Champions Leicester is a high point for the team.

With few injuries, Albion will be able to field a strong squad on Saturday. Saido Berahino hasn’t played a key part in the season this far, so his absence won’t be too keenly felt. Pulis will hope to draw on goals from Salomon Rondon and Nacer Chadli.

Watford has been a surprise package since rejoining the Prem last season. A promising 2015-16 season ended with a mid table finish, an FA cup semi final and the somewhat bemusing sacking of Quique Flores. Gino Pozzo, their Italian owner, appointed his compatriot Walter Mazzarri as manager in the summer. Untested in the jungle of the Premier League, Mazzarri is a manager with some pedigree in his home nation looking to prove himself on this new stage.

Watford is quickly proving themselves to be an exciting team capable of playing open, high scoring football on their day. A surprise 3:1 home victory against Man United, and, like West Brom, a 2:1 win against Leicester has shown that Watford is a team capable and willing to try to outplay more established clubs. This approach has come back to bite them; a 6:1 thrashing by the increasingly terrifying Liverpool has taught a lesson to any club thinking they can play open, progressive football at Anfield.

A match day squad could quite likely be missing two regular defensive starters in Younes Kaboul and Jose Holebas. Aside from them, Mazzarri will be able to pick from his regular starters. Captain Troy Deeney should start, a player who is a challenge for any defence to cope with.

Finding the value in a close game

It would be wise to expect a fairly even game, with both teams probing each other to find weakness in the first half. The fixtures from last season saw only one goal, resulting in a 0:1 away win for Watford, so we shouldn’t expect a high scoring game. While picking a winner between the two is tough, West Brom could edge it due to the home advantage. Paddy Power is offering 6/5 on West Brom win, and 23/10 on a draw.

However, with West Brom having recording four 1:1 draws so far this season, and both teams with an exactly 61.54% BTTS rate, a score draw seems like it could come through. Bet 365 have 1:1 at 11/2 and BTTS and draw at 7/2.