Tag: football odds

City Facing Massive Test of Title Credentials at Goodison

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Manchester City will travel to Goodison Park to face Everton on Sunday afternoon intent on maintaining their title challenge in the wake of Chelsea’s 2-0 loss to Tottenham in their last Premier League fixture.

The league leaders defeat at White Hart Lane ended a run of 13 straight league victories and reopened the door for the likes of City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United in their quest to challenge for the title. City is currently still available at 7/1 with Coral to claim a fifth league title in Pep Guardiola’s maiden season in charge.

City aiming to reduce seven-point deficit

With fourth-placed City still trailing Chelsea by seven points, Guardiola will be desperate for his team to take all three points back to Manchester. Toffees boss Ronald Koeman, meanwhile, will hope his players can sustain the club’s challenge for a top six finish and possible European football next season with a win to better the 1-1 draw they achieved in Manchester back in October.

City will go into the match without midfielder Fernandinho who received his marching orders for the second time this season in City’s hard-fought 2-1 victory over Burnley at the Etihad last time out. Ilkay Gundogan is the only other player likely to miss out for City while Everton will have to make do without injured duo Maarten Stekelenburg and summer signing Yannick Bolasie.

No easy task for Guardiola’s men

Guardiola’s men lost 1-0 to title rivals Liverpool on their last trip to Merseyside on New Year’s Eve, their third defeat on the road this season, while Everton boasts an impressive home record with just a solitary defeat, also to neighbours Liverpool to blot their copybook.

The hosts’ good home form and City’s seven victories on the road suggest this will be a close encounter. Last weekend saw Everton exit the FA Cup at the first hurdle following defeat to Champions Leicester while City made a huge statement of intent hammering West Ham 5-0 in East London to progress to the next round of the famous old cup.

On the back of these results, the bookmakers seem less agreeable to Everton’s chances of denting City’s title charge and place them at a very generous 10/3 to claim the win with bet365 amongst others. The visitors, on the other hand, are priced as short as 4/5 with the same bookmaker to escape Merseyside with all three points.

Goals fest on the cards?

Everton has notched 15 goals in their 10 home league matches so far this season, while City has scored an impressive 22 goals in just 10 matches away from home thus far. With City’s defence looking far from comfortable protecting Claudio Bravo’s goal, however, the odds of both teams scoring is a modest 8/13 with Ladbrokes which suggests the bookies are anticipating goals.

Big money returns could be yielded from a punt on who gets that all important first goal. Everton’s main man Romelu Lukaku and City’s forward sensation Sergio Aguero have both helped themselves to 11 goals in the league so far, which makes odds from Skybet of 11/2 for the Belgian and 3/1 for the Argentine to open the scoring on Sunday extremely tempting.

Burnley vs. Southampton – Saints in a Turf War

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This weekend sees Southampton travel to the North to bounce back against a Burnley side who are as strong at home as they are so desperately poor away.

Coming back from the dead

December started and ended brutally for Claude Puel’s Southampton; the beginning of the month saw them crash out of their Europa league group, the end saw 3 consecutive league defeats in 7 days. Some are pointing to Southampton as an example of a victim of the packed Premier League Christmas scheduling, and it’s easy to sympathise with those claims. Fortune favours the bold, however, and Southampton will have to return to form immediately if they want to keep pace with their rivals for the Europa league spots.

The Saints won the corresponding fixture 3:1 in October, and the only other previous meeting between these two in the top flight was in the 2014/15 season, which saw both teams winning at home.

Puel has a few injuries to add to the general squad fatigue. The long-term absences of Austin, Pied and Targett are compounded by the doubt around McCarthy and Boufal, with Martina and Soares who potentially lack match fitness. They also have a midweek EFL Semi Final against Liverpool which could easily exacerbate their existing fitness problems.

A tale of two seasons

It is hard to think of another team in the Prem whose season can be so starkly divided as Burnley; their home form would put them sixth, having only dropped points in 4 games and have 7 home wins at Turf Moor, while their away form would put them bottom of the table, with 1 solitary point from 9 games. Currently 12th, Burnley are only one point behind Southampton, and a win on Saturday would see them leapfrog them by two points. Considering their poor away record, it’s a bit of a push to start thinking about Burnley competing for 7th place, but a victory here against an immediate rival could galvanise them into something truly surprising. A continuation of their great home form will be vital to consolidating or improving on their current position come May. They will go into this game looking for strategic points against a demoralised rival, confident of their ability to win.

In contrast to their opponents, Burnley’s festive fixtures proved fruitful, giving them 6 points from 9, including a 4:1 thumping of Sunderland and a spirited 2:1 defeat to Man City. Sean Dyche will certainly be thankful for a more forgiving schedule than Southampton, but his squad isn’t without injury concerns: Gudmundsson, Bamford and Arnfield are all definitely out, and there is concern for Flanagan and Boyd.

The value

Bookies are favouring Southampton for the win here, with Bet 365 having Southampton at 11/10, Burnley and Draw are both at 12/5. These odds seem pretty tasty, and with Burnley Double Chance at 3/4, going with the home side could be profitable, if a bit risky. Southampton is a very capable on their day, but considering Burnley’s home form, and the fact they have had a 7-day break (compared with Southampton’s 3 days) suggest that it might be worth going with the outsider.

Looking at the goals market, Under 2.5 goal is backed by the bookies, at 8/13 with Bet Victor. Southampton does statistically favour Under, and Burnley goes either way. However, Southampton’s last 5 games in all competitions have gone Over 2.5. I would definitely consider putting a small stake on Burnley to Win & Over 2.5.

Can Tottenham Maintain their Great Title Form?

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Tottenham fans simply cannot forget how they let the title slip last season. What made matters even worse was in how they were eventually overtaken by close neighbours Arsenal and finished third. Those wounds still run deep around White Hart Lane. Tottenham struggled to come to terms with playing at Wembley and were subsequently dumped out of the Champions League a few weeks ago.

Their form in the Premier League has been excellent. They currently have 42pts from 20 games and should that form continue until the end of the season, they will surely make the top four. Tottenham is currently 7pts behind leaders Chelsea. Their impressive 2-0 win against The Blues last week took some momentum out of the Chelsea title charge. It also dragged Spurs back into the race.

Tottenham Simply Must Win

If Tottenham really is going to contest the title race then they must surely beat West Brom at home. With a seven-point deficit to overcome, securing three points at home to middle of the table teams is a necessity. Tottenham has started 2017 with a bang. They thumped Watford 4-1 away and then recorded back-to-back 2-0 home victories against Chelsea and Aston Villa in the FA Cup.

West Brom on the other hand, is a very resilient team under Tony Pulis. They have also had an impressive first half to the season. With an impressive 29pts recorded so far, West Brom currently sits eighth in the table. They may have lost at home to Derby County in the FA Cup last weekend, but that won’t have bothered Tony Pulis too much.

Where are the Best Bets?

Despite Tottenham arguably having one of the best squads in the league, their odds in this match are prohibitive. William Hill offers the stand out odds of 4-11 for a Spurs home win. You can also get an attractive 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away win for West Brom. While Tottenham may be in decent form, they have drawn a lot of games this season and especially during the opening twelve matches.

This means that the 9-2 offered by BetFred may tempt a few people should you predict a Tottenham slip up. The chances are that Tottenham will win but the value is thin at best with odds of 4-11. While the 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away victory does seem tempting, you will lose your money a significant number of times placing bets like these given how well Tottenham are playing at the moment. The recommended bet here would be to back Tottenham while placing a quarter of your stake on the draw as a safeguard.

Watford vs. Tottenham: New Year, New Spurs

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While half of the UK will be waking up on January 1 feeling as though they’ve just taken a wayward Harry Kane penalty to the side of the head, Tottenham’s finest will be heading to Watford’s Vicarage Road.

Forming part of a New Year’s Day double-header, Watford vs. Tottenham looks as though it will gift the latter with a positive start to 2017. With the post-Christmas festivities being kind to Spurs, the bookies are all in agreement that an away win is where the odds will lay heading into this one.

Tottenham Finding their Form

Thanks to a 4-1 drubbing of Southampton, Mauricio Pochettino’s men will be on a high and the odds makers at Sun Bets have responded in kind by setting their win line at 4/6. Although Watford is far from sitting ducks at 4/1, the fact you can get a better price on a draw (14/5) than a home win would suggest The Hornets have it all to do on Sunday.

In fact, to make matters worse for Walter Mazzarri and the Hertfordshire side, Boxing Day’s 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace was a disappointing result. Despite Watford’s relative success so far this season (10th after 18 games), the performance against Palace left a lot to be desired. Maybe Palace was buoyed by the appointment of new manager Sam Allardyce, maybe they were full of cheer, but after 30 minutes they certainly didn’t look like a side that has only managed four wins this season.

Although Palace began to fade as the match wore on, Watford wasn’t able to assert much dominance and it was only by the grace of a penalty that they managed to sneak a draw. Now, to completely discount the performance by Palace would be harsh, but the reality is that Watford made them look good and if that happens when Tottenham come calling it could be a long 90 minutes.

Spurs’ Strike Rate on the Up

Spurs haven’t been a goal machine this season, but they proved they’ve got the firepower to score by putting four past Southampton. Has something clicked up front? Quite possibly, and if it has then the league leaders should be worried. As it stands, the London club has only conceded 13 this season and if they can combine this with more goals, they’ll become a very tough side to beat.

Unfortunately for Watford, they may be taking on Tottenham at the worst time possible. With a glut of goals distinctly possible, William Hill’s “Tottenham to win by 2 or more goals” bet at 9/4 could be good value. Although punters have been reluctant to speculate on goal bets when it comes to Tottenham this season, the Southampton win has certainly changed the tide and opened up the market.

There Will be Goals, But Don’t Go Crazy

Indeed, if you really fancy the likes of Kane and Dele Alli to hit the target on January 1, you can currently get 28/1 with Coral that Tottenham will clinch another 4-1 away win. Now, the chances of a repeat score line are probably quite low, so the smart money in this instance would probably be over 2.5 goals. Coral will give you 19/20 on this while Sun Bets’ team has pitched it at 10/11.

Although it would be unwise to completely write off Watford in this game, a draw would seem to be the only likely alternative outcome. If we accept that as a reality, it then becomes a matter of how many goals will Spurs win by? Given their current strike rate (just under two goals per game) and goals conceded, 2-0 (7/1 at William Hill) would be a strong bet for this New Year’s Day showdown.

Goals Expected At Anfield

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2016 ends with what looks a Premier League classic on Saturday evening when Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield.

This clash between two of the best entertainers in England’s top flight promises to be one of the best games of the year as a defeat for either side is unthinkable.

Chelsea will lead the table going into 2017 and these two sides are the nearest pursuers to the Blues’ in the title race and both Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp will be well aware that a defeat for their side could see them out of the title race in January.

The bookies make Liverpool their 11/8 favourites with pretty much every layer and with three successive wins after a mini blip at the start of the month they are proving a popular selection.

City arrives in Merseyside in form as well, with three wins on the spin also; they are priced up at 13/5 across the board, and with a draw no good for either side, they will be going all out for the victory.

Where Do We Profit From This Match-up?

This is as tough as it gets to find a winner, and for me, the value plays lie far away from the match outcome, and the areas we have to concentrate instead for the winners are on the goals markets.

In eight of Liverpool’s last 12 matches, both teams have scored and that is exactly the same record at City; the 8/15 on both teams scoring again with William Hills is a banker for the NY Eve BTTS coupon, or for any big staking clients in a single.

Over 2.5 goals has also come in as a winner in four of the last five Liverpool matches and in four of the last six over at City, and again that looks another banker at the general 8/13 that is with all the bookies.

This match sees two of the best attacking sides in the Premier League, with equally poor defenses having to go all out for the win and with goals looking a certainty for smaller punters the over 3.5 goals in the match and the over 4.5 goals at 7/4 and 4/1 again with William Hills should be played.

Sergio Aguero returns for City after missing four games through suspension, which strengthens the goals claim and the Argentinian is 5.00 to score the opening goal on his return in a game where goals are expected the 2.10 on him to score at any time looks a nice play.

Tottenham Looking to End Poor Away Form Against Southampton

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Southampton and Tottenham return to Premier League business on Wednesday evening when they clash at St. Mary’s following a welcome 10-day break from action for both clubs.

The match does, however, signal the start of a busy festive period in the top division as Saints prepare for three matches in just six days while Spurs contemplate three fixtures in a slightly more favourable eight days.

Claude Puel’s team will be looking to extend their impressive home form which has seen them lose just once in eight matches on home soil in the league this season to Premier League pacesetters Chelsea.

Tottenham, lying fifth in the table meanwhile, will be seeking to end a poor run of away form which has seen them collect just three points on the road from their last five league matches.

Mauricio Pochettino returns to the south coast for only the second time since his acrimonious departure from Southampton for White Hart Lane in the summer of 2014. And the Argentine will be hoping his team can close the gap on the teams above them in the table with all three points, just as he did on his maiden return to his former employers last December.

Southampton boss Puel will be without top goalscorer Charlie Austin who has gone under the knife for surgery on a shoulder injury which is likely to keep him sidelined for anything up to four months. Austin’s absence could give Jay Rodriguez another opportunity to start after his brace of goals last time out inspired Southampton to a 3-1 win over local rivals Bournemouth.

Spurs, on the other hand, go into the match boasting an almost full strength squad with former Saints defender Toby Alderweireld and Dutch forward Vincent Janssen back to fitness, leaving just Erik Lamela still unavailable as he nurses a long-term hip injury.

Despite their iffy away form, Spurs will go into the match boasting a strong recent record at St. Mary’s. Three wins and a draw from their last four trips to the south coast should give Pochettino confidence that his team can finally turn around their dismal recent away form. Southampton though has to go all the way back to 2005 for their last home victory over Spurs.

Southampton with eight goals in eight home matches this season, and Spurs, who despite their poor recent record have still notched 10 goals on their travels, gives great value to the both teams to score market at Yes 1.80 on Betway.

Elsewhere, with Harry Kane starting to find the net with increasing regularity for the North London outfit recently, the England international is tempting at 9/2 with bet365 to net first on Wednesday evening.