Tag: football odds

Liverpool vs. Stoke: Can PMA Upset Liverpool?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With an extra day to sleep off the Christmas turkey, Liverpool’s finest will be looking to move a few steps closer to Chelsea in the Premier League race when they welcome Stoke on December 27.

With a hard-fought win over Everton in their last outing, Jurgen Klopp’s men will be hoping for more of the same against Stoke and the stats suggest that could be the case. If we look back through time, Liverpool has dominated Stoke at home. Although away trips haven’t been quite as bountiful, Liverpool has managed to win 48 of their last 65 ties against The Potters.

That sort of home form, combined with Liverpool’s recent run in the Premier League has naturally led Sun Bets’ odds makers to price the Merseyside as the heavy favourites ahead of the match. Currently priced at 2/7, the odds would suggest this will be one of the most one-sided festive matches this season.

It’s About More than Numbers for Hughes

However, do the numbers really tell the whole story? Well, according to manager Mark Hughes, last January’s League Cup exploits could be just the confidence boost his players need. Although Stoke ultimately lost on penalties in the semi-final, they did “win” the match 1-0 during normal time. Had it not been for aggregate goals from the previous leg, Hughes’ men might have made it to the final.

Unfortunately, fate would have it that they fell just short, but Hughes believes that his players can replicate that performance on the 27th. Speaking to the local press, Hughes claimed it was “belief” that helped clinch that match and that his team will be heading to Anfield without any pressure.

“We went there with a real determination and a key element to our performance was belief. We will go there with a positive mindset, not apprehension, and give it a go. There’s no pressure on us and we never go there with the intention of protecting what we’ve got,” Hughes told the Stoke Sentinel.

If PMA (positive mental attitude) can overcome the skill gap, then a tenner on Stoke at 9/1 with bet365 would make a nice late Christmas present. But, with news that referee Michael Oliver will be taking charge of the game, that positive mindset could be in danger of fading fast by the time the two teams kickoff.

When PMA Isn’t Enough

Oliver became something of a pantomime villain at Stoke after a dodgy penalty decision allowed Everton to score from the spot and earn a narrow victory. Although that incident took place on the other side of Liverpool, it’s something many travelling Stoke fans will remember and that could easily create the sort of negative vibes manager Hughes wants to avoid.

Of course, the players will have slightly more pressing issues on their minds when the game starts, but there’s always a chance Oliver’s presence could leave a lingering doubt in their minds. If that’s the case and Hughes’ only saving grace is a positive mindset, then Stoke could really be in trouble on the 27th.

Taking the outright odds out of the equation as they’re simply too short to offer much value, the bets of the day looks to be Liverpool win by one of the following score lines:

2-0 = 6/1 at Ladbrokes

3-0 = 7/1 at Ladbrokes

3-1 = 9/1 at Ladbrokes

Liverpool has already scored 41 this season and conceded just 20 which suggests they’ve got plenty of firepower in the tank. Although Stoke has only conceded 24, their strike rate is just 19 Premier League goals. Taking this into account, it looks unlikely the Potters will get a sniff of the net at Anfield. Yes, Liverpool might not have it all their own way, but once the floodgates open this one could turn into a riot.

For the most value, 2-0 looks to be a wise investment, but if you’re looking for something a little juicier and believe we might get a Christmas cracker, 3-1 at the price is a great shout.

Liverpool Simply Cannot Afford to Lose

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Merseyside Derby is one of the most eagerly awaited matches in the English Premier League calendar. This fixture has a long history with many famous matches being played down the years. Merseyside Derbies have even been played out in cup finals too. There were two famous all-Merseyside FA Cup finals within the space of three years in 1986 and 1989. On Monday evening they will be battling for points at Goodison Park. Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp has made a great start to the season. Everton has been solid as well.

Title D-Day for Liverpool

It is only a couple of weeks ago that Liverpool was being spoken of as title challengers. They then had a crushing 4-3 loss at Bournemouth and dropped further points at home to West Ham. Couple this with Chelsea’s brilliant unbeaten run and the Reds are now nine points behind the men from Stamford Bridge. Should they lose this derby on Monday night then it will look increasingly likely that the title could be slipping away before the end of the calendar year.

Liverpool has put in numerous stunning attacking displays this season. Jurgen Klopp has certainly brought exciting times to Anfield. The question is, do Liverpool really have the personnel to challenge for the title? There is a world of difference between challenging in November and being in contention in April. Liverpool is similar to Manchester City in that they are prone to leaking goals. Their capitulation away to Bournemouth was proof of that.

Koeman has steadied the Ship

Everton, on the other hand, has been solid if unspectacular this season. After several recent managerial changes, they clearly needed stability. David Moyes left to go to Old Trafford and Roberto Martinez did well for a while before he was replaced. It is tough to see Everton reaching the top six this season. This match is a tough one to call because it all depends on whether Liverpool can “park the bus” well enough to prevent defensive mistakes.

This has been their Achilles heel this season. Even their goalkeepers have been causing Jurgen Klopp problems. It is clear that Liverpool needs to strengthen their defence. If they cannot do so in time during the January transfer window then the title is surely out of reach this season. William Hill quotes odds of 19-20 for a Liverpool win. Meanwhile, Everton can be backed at 3-1 with PaddyPower and Stan James with the draw at 11-4 with Bet365.

If you are looking for value in these prices then it doesn’t appear to be with Liverpool. Everton will be up for this game. Their loyal fans will not let them put in anything other than a solid display. Jurgen Klopp will be acutely aware that staying nine points behind Chelsea in the table could prove to be terminal for their title chances. The value does seem to be either in the draw at 11-4 or the 3-1 for a home win.

Bore Draw On The South Coast

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TWO Premier League matches on Sunday and we start with a south coast derby between Bournemouth and Southampton at the Goldsands Stadium.

There is just goal difference separating these two arch-rivals in the Premier League table and of all the matches on the weekend coupon this one looks by far the toughest puzzle to solve.

The bookies can hardly split the two teams, and rightly so in my opinion, but those who can have made the visitors marginal favourites at 2.62, which does seem to me a surprise as they are really struggling for goals at the moment.

The Saints’ suffered a huge blow with the loss of top goalscorer Charlie Austin through injury against Hapoel Beer Sheeva, and since the former QPR striker has been injured they’ve only scored just the one goal.

The positives for Claude Puel is his side’s defence, as they are one of the strongest sides in the top flight with clean sheets in their last two matches and five in their last seven.

Bournemouth arrives in their biggest match of the season in a confident mood after a 1-0 home win against champions Leicester and a 4-3 famous win over Liverpool, so I am surprised that they are the outsiders of the two at the general 3.00.

One of my golden rules in football betting is whenever the bookies can’t split two sides and there is just a cigarette paper between these two, then the draw which is the biggest price of all three match outcomes cries out to be backed; and it certainly does on this occasion in what looks a massive 3.40 with Paddy Power.

Will we see goals?

This looks certain to be tight and under 2.5 goals backers have been cleaning up all season in Southampton matches, and in a local derby, this looks likely to be close again. Both under 2.5 goals and both teams to score as a no at 1.66 with BetVictor and both teams to score “no” at the general 1.91 are well worth support.

The two matches last season both ended in 2-0 home wins, which saw both of those markets as winners and if you are a big staking punter they are worth lumping on but for small stakes players, put them in the weekend accumulators.

This is going to be very, very tight and it wouldn’t at all surprise me to see after a fiery 25 minutes this develop into a bit of a damp squib, and at 9.00 no goalscorer in the match has caught my attention with William Hills.

Patriots and Broncos to resume rivalry in crunch game

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The last two Super Bowl champions face each other on Sunday in a crunch game that both teams will be desperate to win. The Denver Broncos, who won the Super Bowl last season after beating the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, are in danger of failing to make the playoffs this season. They are third in their division but neck and neck with Miami for the final wildcard spot, so it is imperative they win this. But a win for the Patriots would clinch their division for a record eighth straight season and see them secure home advantage for the playoffs, so this really is the biggest and most exciting game of week 15.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

The Pats went into last season’s AFC Championship Game as reigning NFL champions, having won the Deflategate Super Bowl the previous year, but were stunned by the Broncos, who went on to win the Super Bowl themselves. The Broncos are a real bogey team for the Patriots. They are the only team star Pats quarterback Tom Brady has a losing record against as he is 6-9 against them in his career, and they have regularly been a thorn in the all-conquering Patriots’ side.

However, New England comes into this game on a four-game winning streak and the best record in the league, vying with the Cowboys for top spot in the NFL power rankings. Brady is in sensational form, as usual, and made a mockery of the Ravens’s status as the NFL’s best defence by leading his team to a 30-23 victory over them last weekend. The Pats will be keen to avenge last season’s defeat here with a win that will leave the Broncos’ chances of reaching the playoffs hanging by a thread. The Broncos lost last time out to the Titans, and their chances of securing a wildcard spot are really in jeopardy. The Broncos’ defence is also very strong, but Brady is on a roll right now and can lead the Pats to victory here, with Sky Bet offering 8/13 on this.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins

The Panthers, defeated by the Broncos in last season’s Super Bowl, are struggling badly this season and already out of contention. Teams usually suffer a Super Bowl hangover, as shown by Denver, but the Panthers have taken this to new heights as they are bottom of their division at 5-8. None of the five victories has come against a winning team, and they face an in-form Washington team that is still battling for the playoffs.

The Redskins are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot as only the Giants and the Buccaneers currently have a better record than them out of all the second placed teams in the NFC. They got the better of the Eagles in their last game and can continue the winning run against another team with nothing left to play for. They are just half a game behind the Buccaneers and need a win here to boost their chances, and Kirk Cousins will be leading the charge as he has enjoyed a fantastic season so far. The 10/11 Betfred has on the Redskins to cover a -5 spread looks a great bet.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

Another massive game as the Lions are top of their division, on a five-game winning streak and can qualify for the playoffs with a win here, while the Giants are trying to keep pressure on the Pats and cling onto their wildcard spot. It should be a tight game and the 20/21 on offer at Paddy Power on the Lions +4 against the spread looks interesting.

Seattle Seahawks Set for Crunch Game Against the Rams

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The Seattle Seahawks will lock down their division and qualify for the playoffs if they beat the Rams in the first NFL game of week 15. The Seahawks are second favourites for the NFC, behind the Dallas Cowboys, who missed the chance to clinch the NFC East when they lost to the Cowboys last weekend. The Cowboys have already made the playoffs but need to rack up a couple more wins to secure home advantage, and can take a great stride towards that goal by beating Tampa Bay.

LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were crushed by the Packers as a snowstorm engulfed Green Bay last weekend, leaving them 8-4-1 at the top of the NFC West. But if they beat the Rams in front of their home fans in the early game they will wrap up the division, and they are overwhelming favourites to do so. The best odds you can get are just 1/10 with Sky Bet, but all the action is still going on them. The Rams are on a four-game losing streak and, unlike the Packers, cannot hope to qualify for the playoffs. You get the impression they will now try to keep their record down to secure a better draft pick and the Seahawks, who have everything to play for and are 6-0 at home, will destroy them. Different bookmakers are offering a range of spreads, and the 4/6 Bet365 has on the Seahawks -13 looks good.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas’ remarkable 11-game winning run came to an end as they fell to a 10-7 defeat against the Giants. They are already in the playoffs so perhaps they took a foot off the pedal, but that opens the door for the Giants to usurp them in the division. Dallas are now at 11-2 and the Giants are 9-4, so with three games to go, the Cowboys still need more wins on the board if they are to win the division and secure a better deal for themselves heading into the playoffs. Tampa Bay are neck and neck with the Falcons in the NFC South and have it all to play for, so it should make for a cracking game. But the Cowboys are still the best team in the NFC and are second favourites to win the Super Bowl, and they should be able to end Tampa Bay’s five-game winning streak. A lot depends on rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who has Tony Romo breathing down his neck, and he will be determined to put a quiet game against the Giants – where he threw two interceptions and just 165 yards from 37 attempts – behind him and respond emphatically. The Cowboys are 20/23 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Bet365 to cover a -7 spread and that also looks good.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Another early game sees Miami travel to New York for a clash between AFC East rivals. The Patriots are running away with the division, but the Dolphins are very much still in the wildcard hunt. At 8-5 they are currently level with the Denver Broncos for the final AFC wildcard playoff spot, so they need a win badly. The Broncos lost their last game, while Miami won, so they will want to keep the momentum going. The Jets are dead and buried and already thinking of next season, so back the Dolphins at 4/5 with Coral to win this.

Man United To Ease To A Win At The Palace

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PREMIER League strugglers Crystal Palace host in-form Manchester United at Selhurst Park on Wednesday in what will be a repeat of last years Wembley FA Cup final.

On that occasion, United edged a close one 2-1 on a summer’s day last May, and this time around, I really can’t see Palace manager Alan Pardew celebrating with any more infamous dance moves. The visitors look decent value for another win at 1.72 with Betfred.

Palace are struggling big time and they produced yet another awful defensive performance in the 3-3 draw at Hull at the weekend and there really is very little to like about their chances in this one even at the general price of 4/1 on offer with most.

In their last match at Selhurst Park they did produce their best performance of what has been a bitterly disappointing season after a 3-0 win against Southampton, but that was The Eagles only victory in their last NINE and they really could struggle against their more illustrious opponents in this one.

United played very well at the weekend to edge past a good Tottenham side. In recent weeks their performances haven’t been getting the results that they should’ve, and they are set to really give a side a could beating very, very soon and it could be Palace in this one.

Jose Mourinho’s side are now unbeaten in their last eight matches, and despite the loss through injury of recent star man Henrikh Mkhitaryan, they should be far too strong for the home side.

Will Wayne Rooney Return?

With Armenian international Mkhitaryan missing, this could see Mourinho turn to England captain Wayne Rooney who is 6.50 with Bet365 to open the goalscoring, and whoever the “special one” decides to start in South London they are a very confident selection to win and win well.

United will be encouraged that they’ve now kept successive clean sheets for the first time since October, and against a Palace side that is struggling for goals, a United win to nil at 3.00 with BetVictor looks another attractive wager.

Palace is in a middle of a defensive crisis with 21 goals conceded in their last seven matches and a side that can let in FIVE against Swansea and THREE against both Hull and Burnley look certain to really struggle against an in-form United.

I genuinely believe that this could get very, very messy for the home side and I like United to ease to a 3-0 win and really put them in great spirits going into the New Year of making a Champions League push which is available at 15.0 with Bet365.

It looks just a matter of time before Pardew is handed his P45 at Selhurst Park, and when he is relieved of his duties the rumours that I am hearing is that former England manager Roy Hodgson is the number one target; he could be in the hot-seat by the weekend.