Tag: football odds

Manchester City vs. Celtic: Why Pressure Could Upset the Odds

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Manchester City’s season could be on the brink of an implosion unless they can find their form in the Champions League this week. Following an explosive loss to Chelsea in the Premier League, during which Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho were sent off for City, Pep Guardiola’s side looks to be in trouble.

Fourth in the Premier League after 14 games thanks to two losses and three draws, the Sly Blues are starting to look like long shots for domestic success. With that reality starting to set in, the pressure will now be on in the Champions League. Up until this point in the season, City’s fans were able to forgive a lacklustre European campaign because Premier League glory was a distinct possibility.

However, with the tide turning against the Manchester side, expectations in the Champions League will now be heightened. Under normal circumstances, a showdown with Scottish outfit Celtic would be the perfect way for Manchester City to rally and get back on track. But, through a combination of current pressure and previous performances, things might not be so simple when the two sides meet on December 6.

Previous Pressure Could Work Well this Time Around

Last time out it was the Scottish champions who pressed the action inside Celtic Park. Within three minutes the home site went ahead through Moussa Dembele and by halftime the match was poised at 2-2. Although City was able to re-find their form in the second half, the game finished 3-3. Naturally, a point in Group C means different things to different teams, and while Celtic fans went home smiling, the same couldn’t be said for City’s faithful.

Although Guardiola has managed to fire a rocket up his team’s proverbial in subsequent Champions League matches, the fact remains that City are second in the group and in danger of being overtaken by Borussia Mönchengladbach. Whichever way you slice it, City are under pressure and that could tell when the two teams meet this week. Although the latest betting line at Sun Bets would suggest otherwise, this game could actually be closer than many expect.

Indeed, a £10 bet on Man City with Sun Bets would currently return you a relatively meagre profit of £3.33 (1/3 odds). In contrast, £10 the opposite way would net you an infinitely more impressive £85 return (15/2). In fact, when you look out across the rest of the betting world, you’ll see a similar story. Ladbrokes also have Manchester City as the 1/3 and Celtic at 8/1, while Sky Bet will give you identical odds on the Sky Blues but 7/1 on Scotland’s finest.

Don’t Count on the Odds

Of course, as we all know, the odds only tell half the story. We already know that City is a team on the back foot. The recent 3-1 defeat to Chelsea could obviously generate one of two reactions. Either City will come out against Celtic with their heads down, or they’ll be hungry to bounce back and fight for some success this season.

In contrast, Celtic recently came through a similarly explosive match at Motherwell with a 4-3 victory. Although it wasn’t the prettiest of performances, Brendan Rogers’ side did manage to clinch all three points and that could be extremely important on December 6. If we compare City’s and Celtic’s Champions League stats this season, the former’s are far superior. City’s five games, two wins, two draws and one loss is backed up by 11 scored and nine conceded. For Celtic, no wins and 15 goals against are signs of a side struggling to match the firepower of Europe’s top clubs.

Unsurprisingly, it’s these stats which have helped to make Man City the heavy betting favourites. But, if we look beyond the numbers, there could be a glint of optimism for Celtic fans. Unlike City who seemed to falter under the pressure, Celtic came through a heated game with a win. Being able to handle the pressure of a tempestuous game is a sign of a team that knows how to grind out a win in a dogfight.

Some Rough and Tumble Could Suit Celtic

If Celtic can travel to Manchester and drag their opponents into the trenches, they could easily cause an upset. A few crunching tackles, a goal against the run of play or even a refusal to roll over and play dead would really put the pressure on City. In short, any chinks in City’s armour could easily be exposed if things get heated. Now, that’s not to say Celtic will romp home if the home side lose the plot, but it does mean they have a chance.

9/2 on a draw with Sun Bets looks to be a solid bet, but if you really fancy Celtic to rattle an increasingly frail-looking City, 2-1 at 20/1 could be a great shout. Yes, it’s a long shot and no you shouldn’t wager too much on it. However, if you’re looking to add some extra spice to what could be an extremely entertaining game, this could be the way to go.

When all is said and done, Manchester City should come away with a comfortable win on December 6. But, if Celtic can stick the boot in and expose the obvious pressure Guardiola’s men are feeling at the moment, we might well see an upset in the Champions League.

Will Everton vs. Man United Go Down to the Wire?

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Everton and Manchester United may not have been a “crunch” tie in years gone by, but this season’s clash could have major implications for both sides’ Champions League ambitions. When United was riding high under the guidance of Alex Ferguson, a journey to Goodison Park would have been a taxing yet comfortable one.

On December 4, however, United certainly won’t have things all their own way. In fact, if current form holds true, then this could prove to be a game of very fine margins. With United sitting one point ahead of Everton in sixth, Jose Mourinho will be hoping his side can maintain this advantage on Sunday. Unfortunately, if visitors are to start and finish ahead, they’ll have to do it without Wayne Rooney.

Injuries In and Out

Although he’s been far from a talisman for the club this season, Rooney did look like the player of old in United’s recent 4-1 League Cup quarter-final win. After receiving a bashing from the press and the cold shoulder from England, Rooney played like a man possessed. Asserting a determined physicality that we haven’t seen since his teenage years, Rooney could yet add some firepower to United’s lacklustre streak.

However, if he is going to ignite a fire under his teammates, it won’t be against his former club. A fifth yellow card of the season during the West Ham match means Rooney will have to watch from the sidelines. To compound Mourinho’s attacking dilemma, the Red Devils will also have some defensive frailties. Chris Smalling and Eric Bailly are both out with foot injuries.

On the other side of the pitch, Everton will be a man up thanks to the return of James McCarthy. The midfielder could be just the tonic for what’s proven to be a rollercoaster ride for Everton fans this season. Impressive results against Stoke, Middlesbrough and Manchester City have allowed Everton to collect 19 points from 13 games. But, with thumping losses to Chelsea (5-0) and missed opportunities at Crystal Palace and Southampton (twice), the side have looked decidedly shaky at times.

The Stats Can’t Separate Them

McCarthy could add some much-needed stability in the middle of the park, but that might not be enough to stop the advances of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Juan Mata and Paul Pogba. One thing Everton fans can take solace in ahead of the match is that United haven’t been prolific in front of goal. In fact, when you look at goals for and against, Everton and United are almost identical. United’s 18 scored is only marginally better than Everton’s 16, while both are currently poised on 15 conceded.

If we’re to conclude anything from that, it’s that this will be a tight game. Regardless of previous form and results, there is very little to choose between both teams in the stats department. From games won (five apiece), goals and points, the two opposing teams have posted very similar numbers this season.

Taking this into account, it’s easy to see why bet365 is currently hedging its odds between Everton winning and a draw. With 13/5 on the former and 5/2 on the latter, a £10 bet on either would result in a modest return with a fairly low degree of risk. Naturally, United will start the game as the betting favourites and Sun Bets is offering one of the most enticing prices at 11/10.

War of Attrition or a Bore Draw?

Whichever way you look at it, this game will go down to the wire. Injury worries for United are countered with players returning at Everton, while almost identical Premier League stats make it tough to separate the two sides. If that wasn’t enough, the betting odds don’t appear to offer much in the way of a clear favourite.

To really get some value from this game from a betting perspective (based on what we already know), 0-0 at 9/1 with Sun Bets looks to be a strong option. Both sides have shown they’re fairly solid at the back (15 conceded isn’t awful), yet neither have proved to be deadly in front of goal. This would suggest both teams could cancel each other out which, if this proves to be the case, would make a draw (specifically a goalless one) an intriguing proposition.

West Brom vs. Watford – Mid Season, Mid Table Battle

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This Saturday Watford travels to the Hawthorns to take on rival high-flyers West Brom. Both teams are sitting pretty in the top half of the Premier League table, Watford with 18 points and West Brom with 17. Each will be looking to take vital points against a team they will likely be vying against in May, possibly for a place in Europe.

A look at each team’s recent record shows remarkably similar form in the season so far, with both having a fairly even spread of wins, draws and losses. Ahead of a tight game at 15:00 on Saturday, we are taking an in-depth look at the two squads to try and unpick the football betting value.

A Solid Start

West Brom has made an impressive start to the season. Tony Pulis is well regarded a safe pair of hands, having helped steer the course for Stoke and Crystal Palace in becoming established Premier League clubs. His cautious, consistent approach to management has worked well for the Baggies, who are clearly flourishing under his leadership.

West Brom’s form is solid; they perform strongly against mid and lower table teams and have scored in all but three games this season. With four 1:1 draws so far, they have an ability to scrap for points when it counts. A 2:1 home win against Champions Leicester is a high point for the team.

With few injuries, Albion will be able to field a strong squad on Saturday. Saido Berahino hasn’t played a key part in the season this far, so his absence won’t be too keenly felt. Pulis will hope to draw on goals from Salomon Rondon and Nacer Chadli.

Watford has been a surprise package since rejoining the Prem last season. A promising 2015-16 season ended with a mid table finish, an FA cup semi final and the somewhat bemusing sacking of Quique Flores. Gino Pozzo, their Italian owner, appointed his compatriot Walter Mazzarri as manager in the summer. Untested in the jungle of the Premier League, Mazzarri is a manager with some pedigree in his home nation looking to prove himself on this new stage.

Watford is quickly proving themselves to be an exciting team capable of playing open, high scoring football on their day. A surprise 3:1 home victory against Man United, and, like West Brom, a 2:1 win against Leicester has shown that Watford is a team capable and willing to try to outplay more established clubs. This approach has come back to bite them; a 6:1 thrashing by the increasingly terrifying Liverpool has taught a lesson to any club thinking they can play open, progressive football at Anfield.

A match day squad could quite likely be missing two regular defensive starters in Younes Kaboul and Jose Holebas. Aside from them, Mazzarri will be able to pick from his regular starters. Captain Troy Deeney should start, a player who is a challenge for any defence to cope with.

Finding the value in a close game

It would be wise to expect a fairly even game, with both teams probing each other to find weakness in the first half. The fixtures from last season saw only one goal, resulting in a 0:1 away win for Watford, so we shouldn’t expect a high scoring game. While picking a winner between the two is tough, West Brom could edge it due to the home advantage. Paddy Power is offering 6/5 on West Brom win, and 23/10 on a draw.

However, with West Brom having recording four 1:1 draws so far this season, and both teams with an exactly 61.54% BTTS rate, a score draw seems like it could come through. Bet 365 have 1:1 at 11/2 and BTTS and draw at 7/2.

Manchester City vs Chelsea: The Title Decider?

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It’s certainly too early to call this weekends’ showdown between Manchester City and Chelsea a “title decider”. Despite this, we will still be able to gain some important indicators from this match as to who the likely champions will be. We have a lot more data to go on when it comes to predicting the champions than we had back in August. For example, Manchester United will clearly not be champions this season, and we don’t need to wait until it is mathematically certain to see why.

When Statistics Reveal the Answers

Quite often, statistics get to the very heart of the matter and reveal the truth. The league champions usually finish with a total of around 85pts. The points’ totals of City, Chelsea and Liverpool so far clearly indicate that this figure will be reached this season. United have 20pts from 13 games. Clearly, given their current level of performance, they will not amass 65pts from their remaining 25 matches. So what do the statistics reveal for the Manchester City vs Chelsea encounter?

Chelsea made a solid start to the season in August. They won all three of their league games. Looking back on these three games and how they played out revealed that all wasn’t well with the Chelsea system. All three of Chelsea’s opponents were relatively weak and this papered over the cracks. This led to a poor September where Chelsea only took one point from a possible nine. A home defeat to Liverpool and a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal highlighted the shortcomings in the Chelsea team.

The Trend is up

Analysing form in football betting usually means looking at trends. Chelsea had a total of 10pts from six matches after September. Since then they have taken maximum points from seven matches. This includes wins over Manchester United, Everton and Tottenham. Antonio Conte has turned things around very rapidly. They are becoming very difficult to score against and should they win at the Etihad this weekend, they will become serious title challengers and favourites.

The current trend is favouring Chelsea, and Manchester City’s recent form has been patchy. If we take away the great start to the season by City and the mediocre one by Chelsea then the difference in their recent form clearly gives the Blues a significant edge. Manchester City can be backed at 11/10 with Bet365.

Their recent home draws to Southampton, Everton and Middlesbrough seem to indicate that 11/10 is too short. Far too short when you consider that the visitors are possible champions elect. Stan James offers 13/5 on the draw with Betfred quoting 5/2 for a Chelsea win. Both teams may be happy with a point and so the value bet seems to indicate the draw at 13/5.

Manchester United vs West Ham: Two Bosses under Pressure

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Manchester United take on West Ham on Sunday in the Premier League. Both managers are under pressure and need a win. After the successes of last season, Slaven Bilic and the West Ham fans would not have expected to be just one place above the drop zone in November.

In fact, a defeat at Old Trafford on Sunday could see them in the bottom three. A large part of their current situation can be blamed on the move to the new stadium. Their results in the impressive Olympic Stadium have been patchy, to say the least.

Any team in the Premier League is going to struggle if they are continually getting mediocre results at home. West Ham played with such energy and passion last season that you tend to wonder where it has all gone wrong. Injuries to key players haven’t helped. Andy Carroll is still some way off being fully fit, and he has only played once all season. West Ham certainly misses his potent threat up front.

Misfiring Reds

The question needs to be asked if Manchester United’s title chances have already vanished this season. Some people argue that it’s too early to say that. Consider the facts. They trail Chelsea by 9pts, and they are behind three teams that are playing much better than them in Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. All of their big name acquisitions have been misfiring this season. Wayne Rooney has been well below his best.

These are four big reasons why the 9pt gap will likely grow larger rather than contract. You simply cannot underperform for half a season and expect to win the league. The big test for United is to finish in the top four. Jose Mourinho is certainly under pressure, but then again why shouldn’t he be?

United are Still No Better

We can argue about the merits of style but the league position and the stats don’t lie. United are no better off under Mourinho than they were under Moyes and Van Gaal. The bookies now have United at 25/1 for the title. Those odds are not too far short of bookmaker spiel for “no chance”.

As for their game with the Hammers on Sunday, they will start as favourites and rightly so. One negative point for United could be their Europa League tie against Feyenoord on Thursday. What will their energy levels be like against West Ham? Mourinho has openly stated that he is taking the Europa League very seriously this season.

He may need to if they miss out on the top four in the league. Winning the Europa League would then be United’s only chance of playing in the Champions League next season. You can get odds of 1-2 with Stan James for a Man United win. You can also get 7-2 with SkyBet for the draw and a tasty 15-2 with BetFred for a West Ham upset.

Arsenal vs. Bournemouth: Will Wilshere Make the Difference?

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Could Jack Wilshere be the missing link on November 27 when Bournemouth travel to Arsenal? The Arsenal midfielder is currently on loan at Bournemouth following a spell of injuries and poor form, but he’ll have to sit this game out under the rules governing players on a temporary contract.

Since moving to Bournemouth, Wilshere has played nine games and looks to be returning to the sort of form that saw him hailed as one of Arsenal’s next great hopes. In fact, with injuries now a distant memory and his link-up plays starting to find their mark, Wilshere recently received an England call-up from Gareth Southgate.

Wilshere In Form but Out of Action

While it might be a little early to hail the “return” of the 24-year-old talent, he’s certainly looked comfortable in a Bournemouth shirt. Unfortunately, with the FA’s rules preventing him from playing, it looks as though Bournemouth will be up against it at the Emirates.

To date, Arsenal has faced Bournemouth three times and haven’t lost on any occasion. To heap more pressure on Eddie Howe, Arsenal has lost just once this season and currently sit fourth in the Premier League, while Bournemouth has lost five. In any other match, Howe would be looking to Wilshere for some inspiration in the middle of the park, but this Sunday he won’t have the luxury.

Fortunately, however, he does have Harry Arter. The feisty midfielder has been a powerhouse in the centre this season and often comes in with a crunch challenge when it really matters. According to the stats, Arter has won 25 tackles this season, which is the fifth-best total in the league so far this season.

Midfield Strength is Bournemouth’s Best Hope

With Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez often dropping deep from the frontline, a crunch battle between these two could define much of the match. If Arter can slow down Sanchez and prevent him from feeding into the likes of Olivier Giroud and Mesut Ozil, then it could stifle Arsenal’s attacks and give Bournemouth a chance to sneak a win.

However, even if Bournemouth can contain Sanchez, Arsenal are still a threat, and more importantly, the Cherries haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders this season. With more conceded (16) than scored (14), Bournemouth is struggling for goals and that could be the deciding factor on Sunday.

The current betting line at Sun Bets has Arsenal as the 2/5 favourites and the visitors way out at 13/2. Although Ladbrokes and Paddy Power are both offering 4/1 on a draw, the market is clearly split between the two opposites of wins and losses. Of course, for a bit more value, Sun Bets will give you 8/1 on the familiar one nil to the Arsenal, but this game looks to have more goals in it.

If There Are Goals, They’ll Probably be Arsenal’s

Bournemouth is vulnerable at the back and Arsenal has netted 25 in 12. That would suggest we’re in for two or more goals from the Gunners, which makes 2-0 at 7/1 and 3-0 at 15/2 look highly attractive. For those that want to take advantage of a timely betting offer, Paddy Power is currently offering an instant payout if your team goes two goals up at any stage in the game.

Valid for all pre-match singles in the Win-Draw-Win market, this offer will see you paid out in full as a winner if your selection nets a two-goal lead. Given Arsenal’s current form and goals-per-game average just over the 2.0 mark, this looks like an offer that’s worth taking advantage of.

That deal aside, Arsenal certainly look like the clear favourites heading into this game and it could well be Wilshere’s absence that’s helped this fact. The Arsenal player might not be contributing to his team’s current run, but he may still end up earning three points when Bournemouth travel to London on Sunday.