Tag: football odds

Honours To Be Shared On Koeman’s Return

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

SOUTHAMPTON have got to improve massively on their midweek Europa League performance if they are to have any chance of a win when former manager Ronald Koeman returns to St Mary’s on Sunday with Everton.

The Saints were woeful in Prague on Thursday night in their 1-0 Europa League defeat against Sparta and if they perform anywhere like that again, it will be a long afternoon for the home side.

The bookies make Southampton a very short 2.20 favourite for the win which is available with most firms and although they are expected to make wholesale changes from the European defeat, that is still a price that does nothing for me.

After a decent little run of form Claude Puel’s side have now failed to win in their last four Premier League fixtures, and with them up against their former manager, I can’t see them winning this one either.

Acrimony surrounded Koeman’s departure in June and he did a magnificent job for Southampton – but could face a very hostile reception at the weekend.

After a bright start to life on Merseyside, the Dutchman has seen his team also struggle for consistency in recent weeks, and the Toffees’ have come unstuck recently after just one win in their last eight matches. That puts me off having a bet on them even at the tempting 3.75, despite them winning this fixture comfortably last season.

In three of their last six matches, Everton has been held to a draw, and draws have been popular on the south coast as with stalemates in four of their last 11.

We saw last week in the dire 0-0 with Liverpool when a lot of Saints’ old boys returned to St Mary’s, it’s very hard to raise your game at a former club, and the draw looks a decent bet in this one again at 3.50 with BoyleSports and Betfred.

All of those Everton draws have ended 1-1 at the final whistle. With both sides featuring strikers that are bang in form in Charlie Austin and Romelu Lukaku, I like both teams to score “yes” at 1.95 with Betfair Sportsbook in what looks likely to be another 1-1 draw, at 7.00 with William Hills, which was the scoreline when the two teams met last at Goodison Park in April.

Leicester City v Middlesbrough: A Day For Defences

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

While Leicester City continued to buck the odds by topping Group G of the UEFA Champions League after a relatively comfortable 2-1 victory over Club Brugge on Tuesday, it’s fair to say that the Foxes have had to face something of a reality check in the Premier League this season.

Claudio Ranieri’s men have struggled to replicate their phenomenal title-winning form from the 2015/2016 campaign and currently sit just two points above the relegation zone in 14th place. A 2-1 defeat to Watford last time out did little to improve morale as Leicester became only the third reigning champions after Leeds United in 1992 and Blackburn Rovers in 1995 to start a season without a win in their first six away games.

Fortunately, the Foxes will be able to fall back on home comforts on Saturday as they face a Middlesbrough side who are one point and one place behind them in the Premier League table, but their erratic domestic form means a straightforward afternoon is far from guaranteed. In truth, there is little to separate the two sides in terms of results, with Boro edging it with five points from their last four games to Leicester’s four.

Foxes Failing To Fire

The worry for Leicester will be that while the two teams’ recent returns are comparable, the way in which those points have been accrued most certainly isn’t. Aitor Karanka’s men have shown incredible defensive resilience to secure hard-earned points at Arsenal and Manchester City while also derailing an in-form AFC Bournemouth at the Riverside, whereas Leicester lost their last Premier League home clash to West Brom.

Despite this fact, the bookmakers still have the reigning champions as favourites for the win against newly-promoted Middlesbrough, with Betfred and Betway both offering a best price of 10/11 on a home victory. The visitors, meanwhile, are out at 15/4 with Bet Victor and the draw is also available at 13/5 with Bet365; with both of these outcomes undoubtedly offering better value than the odds-on price on a Leicester win.

The main problem for the home side here is that while Boro has been busy making a name for themselves thanks to their dogged defending in recent weeks, Leicester is badly struggling for goals. Having been one of the driving forces behind their title push last season with 24 goals, Jamie Vardy has found the net twice so far and has now fallen behind slight injury doubt Islam Slimani in Coral’s first goalscorer market at 5/1.

Chances At A Premium

The Algerian, meanwhile, is rated at 9/2 with the same bookie and arguably represents more of a threat if he is passed fit; as does Leicester’s top scorer in all competitions this season, Riyad Mahrez, who comes in at 6/1 with Bet365 and also has penalty duties in his locker. Picking a marksman for the visitors is similarly problematic, with Middlesbrough being the league’s joint-lowest scorers alongside Hull City with 10 goals.

All this adds up to a game where defences are likely to be on top, and you can get a tasty-looking 7/2 on Boro keeping their fourth clean sheet of the season with Sky Bet. Similarly, Betfred is offering 12/5 on the match featuring fewer than 1.5 goals and – despite being odds-on at 4/5 – under 2.5 goals looks about as close to a certainty as you’re ever likely to find in the Premier League with the same online bookmaker.

Those wishing to take this defensive mindset a step further can find a generous 9/1 on the game finishing 0-0 with Sky Bet, while if you do fancy Leicester to snap their recent losing streak in the Premier League, your best bet is certainly to back the Foxes to win to nil with Bet Victor at vastly improved odds of 21/10.

Burnley vs Manchester City: Tough Turf for City

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Turf Moor has long been considered to be a graveyard for the top teams that play there. This tight little stadium with a small capacity almost looks out of place in the Premier League. Burnley have been defying the critics for some time. The fact of the matter is this. Everton and Liverpool have both lost at Turf Moor this season while Arsenal were lucky to scrape a 1-0 win.

Despite their recent away win at Crystal Palace, City still look like a team that is capable of conceding goals. They are still many peoples’ bet for the title. It is difficult to ponder the variables when it comes to predicting whether Guardiola will lift the title in his first season. City has the potential and they certainly have the manager with the right philosophy. The question is will that philosophy work in the Premier League? Then we might ask if it will work in time for City to be Champions this season?

Bookies Buy into the Guardiola Effect

The betting firms have certainly bought into the famous “Guardiola effect”. Manchester City are favourites again for the title but should they be? Chelsea have been champions more recently than City and they don’t have to worry about European football this season. Guardiola freely admits that he is still “learning” the nuances of the Premier League.

This means that the bookies will certainly have them too short when they face Burnley in the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday. William Hill has City at 2/7 to win. You can get odds of 5/1 with Stan James for the draw and 10/1 with BoyleSports for a Burnley win. The recent wins over Barcelona and the 4-0 win away to West Brom still haven’t convinced a lot of people that City have what it takes.

Buoyed by the Return of Toure

City have never really recovered since the loss of club captain Vincent Kompany. A succession of injuries is now looking to threaten his entire career. He went off injured again last weekend in the 2-1 win away to Crystal Palace. The plus side is the return of Yaya Toure. Guardiola claims he is back to full fitness and that is going to be a big boost for City. This is providing that Toure delivers and doesn’t drift in and out of games like he has done in recent seasons.

It is clear that City must start as favourites against Burnley but 2/7 favourites? Burnley have recorded consistent results this season. Their recent goalless draw at Old Trafford and the home win against Everton has left them with a respectable 14pts so far. The value bet seems to be the 5/1 for the draw. City are frail at the back and Turf Moor is a tough ground to visit….just ask Liverpool and Everton fans.

Arsenal v PSG: Can The Gunners Top Group A?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Having already secured their progress to the knock-out stages of the UEFA Champions League for the 14th consecutive season, Wednesday’s clash between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain represents something of a straight shoot-out for top spot in Group A and – potentially – a more favourable draw in the Round of 16.

The Gunners punched their ticket to next phase of the competition with a thrilling 3-2 comeback against Bulgarian champions Ludogorets Razgrad, with Mesut Ozil’s sublime winner ensuring the North London side maintained their unbeaten start to the group despite being 2-0 down within the opening 15 minutes.

The jubilant scenes among the away supporters were, however, tempered by news of Thomas Meunier’s 90th-minute strike handing PSG all three points away to Basel, with this late victory ensuring that the two teams go into this week’s fixture deadlocked on 10 points apiece, with Arsenal ahead on goal difference.

The French Connection

The last time the two teams met in Group A, Arsenal managed to salvage a point through Alexis Sanchez’s second-half goal, but the visitors were behind within a minute when Edinson Cavani’s glancing header sent the Paris faithful into raptures. The Gunners were run ragged in the opening exchanges and were indebted to the Uruguayan’s wayward finishing as they held on before striking late in the final quarter of the game.

With Arsene Wenger’s men benefiting from home advantage this time out, the bookies are predicting a far smoother ride at the Emirates, with Arsenal priced as 13/10 favourites with Betfair ahead of PSG at 12/5 with Sky Bet. The draw, meanwhile, is available at a best price of 9/4 from Unibet, indicating that despite their slightly more favourable odds, Wednesday night’s game should largely be an evenly-matched affair.

One statistic that does stand out, however, is the fact that Arsenal has conceded in each of their last three games in all competitions, with this making 138.com’s price of 10/13 on both teams finding the back of the net seem an easy way to make money. Should these odds not appeal, you can double both teams scoring with the result, with Betfair offering 7/5 on Arsenal emerging victorious and 9/2 on PSG doing the same.

Attack! Attack! Attack!

With both sides able to field a glittering array of attacking talent, it seems fairly safe to assume that the game is unlikely to finish goalless – and the current trends in this year’s competition indicate that there may be some value to be had when betting on the time that the first goal will be scored at the Emirates.

In the two games in which they’ve conceded in Group A, Arsenal has gone behind in both the 1st and 12th minutes, while in their remaining two games they’ve opened the scoring in the 7th and 12th minute against Basel and Ludogorets respectively. It is therefore somewhat surprising to see William Hill decide that a goal in the opening 1-15 minutes is an odds-against proposition at 21/10, with this offering some potential value.

Arsenal’s current run of three games without a clean sheet also makes it strange to see 1-0 to the home side being touted as the most likely scoreline by Coral and Boyle Sports at 15/2. Given what we already know about the Gunners’ defensive frailty in the competition this year, a 2-1 victory therefore, looks more appealing at 33/4 with 138.com, and you can also get 39/4 on the visitors winning by the same scoreline.

 

 

Goals Look Certain at Parkhead

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

CELTIC face one of the toughest challenges in world football on Wednesday night when they host the mighty Barcelona at Parkhead in Champions League Group C.

The Scottish champions will need every one of the 61,000 passionate sell-out crowd to play their part in this one and become “The Bhoys” 12th man; it has worked before with them beating the five-times European champions in 2012, but this time around it’s very difficult to make any case for a shock win.

The two sides met at the Camp Nou in September and Celtic was very lucky to come away with just a 7-0 hammering. There is simply too much of a gulf between these two sides, something which is highlighted by the bookies’ odds for the game.

Barca are just 1.30 to bounce back to winning ways after their 3-1 defeat in their last Champions League match at Man City, and it’s impossible to look past them, but I personally couldn’t back them at those very short prices.

The Catalan giants were held to a goalless draw against Malaga on Sunday to let odds-on backers down, and with key players returning in Glasgow they should win this, but the weekend disappointments might still be fresh in some punters minds.

Celtic are a massive 12.00 with Bet365 for the win and even though they are running away with their domestic title again and held City to a 3-3 draw at Parkhead, they won’t be getting anything from this one.

The match prices look spot on offering very little value, and the best way to profit is to get with goals.

In Celtic’s four group C matches 17 goals have been scored, and it’s a similar story over in Barcelona with 18 goals featured in their four matches; over 2.5 goals looks the banker bet, but again it’s a very short price at the 1.50 with Coral. Over 3.5 goals in the game looks a better play for smaller punters at a more generous 2.25.

Despite Barcelona offering an incredible goal threat from all over the pitch but mainly from their front three of Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi, they are always vulnerable to concede, and both teams to score “yes” looks another nice bet at 1.91 with William Hills.

With goals expected and obviously an away win more than likely, instead of playing the 1.30 on a Barcelona win, it might pay to look at some nice correct-score bets. I like 3-1 and 4-1 for the visitors at 11.0 and 17.0 which pays 6.60 coupled.

Leicester City v Club Brugge: Foxes To Finish The Job?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If you’ll forgive us for being a little smug for a moment, in our last preview of Leicester City’s maiden UEFA Champions League campaign we successfully called the 0-0 draw with FC Copenhagen that would propel the Foxes into the knockout round – and now we’re going for two from two as they entertain Club Brugge.

Essentially, much of what was written over a fortnight ago still stands going into Tuesday night’s game, as Claudio Ranieri’s men remain one of only two sides yet to concede a goal in this season’s competition and sit proudly atop Group G with an unbelievable haul of 10 points from their opening four European fixtures.

This remarkable run of form in what is Leicester’s first foray into Champions League football couldn’t be in starker contrast to their opponent’s own efforts in the group, with Michel Preud’Homme’s team failing to secure a single point thus far, and scoring just one solitary strike during their 2-1 home defeat to FC Porto.

Having meanwhile conceded 10 goals in this season’s Champions League, the only real surprise is that Club Brugge aren’t the worst team in this year’s competition – that dishonour goes to Dinamo Zagreb, who have not only failed to put any points on the board but are also yet to find the net in any of their four CL games.

Foxes In The Hen House

Having already thrashed the Belgians 3-0 in the reverse fixture, a home assignment against the second-worst team in the tournament should present no significant problems for Leicester, with the bookmakers seemingly inclined to agree as they label the home team heavy favourites. Indeed, no matter where you look, you’ll be hard-pushed to find odds longer than the 4/9 available at Sky Bet on a Leicester City win.

With the visitors meanwhile coming in at a prohibitive 8/1 with Betfair, it really does look to be something of a sporting mismatch; and any fears that Ranieri may opt to rest some of his star players now that Group G qualification is secured are easily allayed by the fact that a win will guarantee they finish top of the table.

That being said, given the odds-on quotes available on a comfortable home victory are unlikely to get any pulses racing, we will therefore, have to look elsewhere to find our value. One of the most obvious ways to do this is by backing the Half Time/Full Time betting markets, where you can get a much more attractive 6/5 with Coral on Leicester/Leicester or an even better 10/3 on Draw/Leicester courtesy of William Hill.

They Score When They Want

Given Leicester’s tag as favourites and their opposition’s obvious shortcomings in front of goal, it doesn’t seem a huge stretch to imagine that the home side will win the game to nil; an outcome that has bizarrely been priced at an odds-against quote of 13/10 by Coral. No, the question instead seems to be exactly how many goals the Foxes can rack up against a woeful Brugge side – with plenty of big scores providing value.

Naturally, having won by a single strike in two of their three victories so far, 1-0 to Leicester remains the bookies’ favourite winning margin at prices of 6/1 with Betfair and many others. Nevertheless, given the only time Leicester have scored more than one goal in a Champions League game was in their opening fixture against Club Brugge, punters might well be tempted by a repeat 3-0 scoreline at 9/1 with Betfair.

If they fancy the Foxes to go one better and run out 4-0 winners on the night, the odds jump to 18/1 with the same site, but that would merely be the icing on the cake in what should be an easy win for Leicester.