Leicester Face Mané Troubles Ahead

Just over a year ago, Jamie Vardy terrorised Liverpool and scored a true contender for goal of the season, in a 2-0 win for Leicester at the King Power Stadium. The incredible volleyed shot which flew past Simon Mignolet was just one of many manifestations of the miracle that was Leicester’s title-winning 2015/16 campaign.

Today, the situation could not be more different. Only a miracle of similar magnitude can now stop Leicester from becoming the first relegated champions since 1938. The odds of that particular event unfolding grow ever shorter, with 15/8 ( Paddy Power) now the best price.

Meanwhile, Liverpool Football Club is far from the meek outfit that finished eighth last term. For all their inexplicable inconsistencies, Jürgen Klopp’s men remain well on course for a top-four finish. They also boast what may be the most hell-raising attacking skills in the entire league – when in form.

A Foxic Mess

Eliminated from the F.A Cup by Millwall – and on current form, soon to be eliminated from the Champions League – the party has not only died but transmogrified into a wake. Even back in August, nobody expected much of Leicester, but the statistics are nothing short of appalling for Claudio Ranieri’s flailing Foxes.

In the last six league games, his Leicester charges have conceded no less than 12 goals. Worse yet, they have done so without once finding the back of the net in response. Where a standard 1X2 bet is concerned, the only worthwhile option for bettors is to delve into the handicap markets.

Given Leicester’s plight, all bookmakers have slashed the typical odds for a Liverpool handicap over bottom half opposition. Subsequently, Paddy Power is offering a market-best 9/2 on a Liverpool win, with a handicap of –2 against.

Sadio the Superstar to Enjoy Glut

Overall, this year has begun disastrously for the Reds by their own lofty standards. However, much of the recently-arrested winless run can be attributed to Sadio Mané’s international duties at AFCON 2017.

Liverpool’s most recent game, against fellow Champions League chasers Tottenham, is a case in hand. In his first Anfield start since returning from Gabon, Mané was in inspired form. Within the first eighteen minutes, he netted a double blast which demonstrated his lethal combination of pace and shooting prowess.

If Ranieri has conjured the courage to watch footage from that game, then many sleepless nights will have followed. On Monday, a red-hot Mané’s personal opponents are likely to be Marc Albrighton and Wilifred Ndidi. Bluntly put, the latter has proven to be a sorry excuse of a replacement for N’Golo Kante. However, Albrighton also bears much responsibility and remains badly out of form.

If backing Mané to be the first goalscorer on Monday night, bettors can enjoy odds of 5/1 across at most respected bookmakers. For those of a braver disposition, William Hill is also offering 8/1 on Mané to score two or more goals against a hapless Leicester side.

Riot running reds to begin strongly

Above all else, it was Liverpool’s transformed attitude from the first whistle, against Tottenham, which resonated most deeply in the last round of the Premier League.

If a usually well-drilled side like Tottenham can fold in such an alarming manner, then logic dictates that Leicester will do likewise. As such, Sky Bet’s specialist first-half market is currently offering tempting odds of 10/3 on Liverpool to score two or more goals in the opening 45 minutes.

Ultimately, it is only a question of how many the Reds will win by. The official Betcirca prediction for this match is Leicester 0-3 Liverpool, which is available at 12/1 with Bet 365.

Can Porto Savage the “Old Lady?

Porto has long since been considered to be one of the sleeping giants of European football. They went through a golden period in 2003 and 2004. Under Jose Mourinho, they won the Europa League followed by the Champions League. In fact, that win by Porto in the 2004 Champions League season can be considered to be the last time that any club won the competition that wasn’t on the “rich list” of European clubs.

Porto has twice won Europe’s premier club competition having also won in 1987. As top European clubs became richer, the leading teams left clubs like Porto behind. Juventus are also on the list of teams that were considered to be great once upon a time. They have to go back to 1996 for their last Champions League win.

Can Juve Roll Back the Years?

Juventus are definitely a side to be respected. They reached the 2015 Champions League final and gave the mighty Barcelona a scare before eventually losing 3-1. They travel to Portugal for the first leg of their last 16 tie with Porto. Porto crushed Leicester City 5-0 in their final group game.

Once again this highlights just how strong Porto are when at home. Juventus are clearly the favourites to progress over two legs. They have the advantage of being able to play the second leg at home in Turin.

Many people feel this could be their year. Barcelona appears to be out of the competition after losing 4-0 to Paris St Germain. Some experts remain far from convinced about Bayern Munich even though they demolished Arsenal 5-1. Juventus are one of those teams that could lift the trophy should the big three of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich slip up.

Where is the Value in Portugal?

Juventus, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla are a list of four very dangerous dark horses that could go all the way. Despite this, Juventus seem poor value to travel to Porto with Bet365 offering just 6/5. Considering a draw will be a great result for Juventus or even a 2-1 defeat, this seems like poor value.

Benfica defeated Borussia Dortmund at home 1-0 in what appeared to be a similarly matched Champions League game to this one. Meanwhile, Porto can be backed at 13/5 with BetVictor and this seems like much better value. Porto has always been traditionally strong at home. It has always been their away form that has let them down.

Benfica vs. Dortmund – Goal Fest on the Cards?

The Champions League returns this Tuesday with a raft of exciting match-ups. While we have seen teams like Bayern and Arsenal play each other almost too frequently in recent years, this is the first time we have seen these two titans of European football coming together in a UEFA Champions League game. An intense, high-scoring game seems likely.

Dortmund

Despite a challenging ongoing domestic campaign, fourth in the Bundesliga, Dortmund were successful in powering through a group seemingly dominated by champions Real Madrid. A brace of 2:2 draws against the Spanish Giants, 14 goals in two games against Legia Warsaw and a double over Sporting Lisbon saw them top their group by away goal differential. Unlike some, Dortmund was actually rewarded for finishing top of their group with a draw against an opposition who they will feel they have every chance of progressing against.

Dortmund will again be looking to frontman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to provide the impetus for a win against the Portuguese champions. With 15 goals 13 matches, Aubameyang is one of the form strikers currently playing in Europe; his combination of speed, strength and skill is proving to be all but unstoppable. Any chance of a result for Benfica will rely on their ability to frustrate him.

While Aubameyang will almost certainly start next Tuesday, Borussia will potentially have to deal with a number of key absences: Sven Bender, Lukasz Piszczek, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer and Mario Gotze are all in doubt, while Nuri Sahin may be fit to make a return.

Benfica

Currently sitting top of Primeira Liga and looking to defend their title, Benfica has been enjoying some quality form this season. Unlucky to be pipped to top of Group B by Napoli in a group that could have gone any number of different ways, they will likely be thankful to not be facing Real Madrid, a prospect the Italians are no doubt relishing.

In squad with a number of established goal scorers and playmakers, Benfica will be looking to Konstantinos Mitroglou and Pizzi to provide the spark and ability needed to put their team past Dortmund’s quality. Benfica’s injury list is small, compared to Borussia, with Lisandro Lopez and Eduardo Salvio the only players in doubt for Tuesday.

The value

Picking apart the value here was always going to be a challenge, with no head to head data to speak of, and with erratic Dortmund so capable of both scoring and conceding with gusto. The Germans did, however, play Sporting twice in the group phase, winning both games 2:1. This gives us a slight idea how Dortmund fair against Portuguese opponents, although Benfica is a different animal to their bitter rivals.

While the instinct would be to predict goals here, the first leg of CL knockouts so often involves both teams playing conservatively, seeking each other out and trying to minimise the scoreline. Despite this, I think Dortmund will prioritise getting an away goal, potentially at the risk of conceding: BTTS is at 7/10 with Bet 365, Dortmund Win & BTTS/Yes at 10/3, and 5/1 for Benfica all seem like good value, depending on your view. Considering the injuries Dortmund may be facing, it could well be worth backing the slight underdogs at home.

 

Swansea v Leicester: Basement Battle of the Two Cities

It is widely lauded by all and sundry as being the greatest league in the world. But while at the top end of the table Chelsea Football Club looks to be cantering towards a sixth title, it is at the foot of the Premier League table where all the real drama and excitement seems to be currently being generated.

And at 1600 hours GMT on Sunday afternoon, the drama doesn’t get much more tense as reigning Premier League champions Leicester City travel to South Wales to face fellow relegation-threatened Swansea City in a hugely significant match for both teams. It promises to be a real nail-biter for both sets of supporters with the clubs equal on 21 points and sitting uncomfortably just a single point clear of the dreaded drop zone.

Swans searching for home comforts

New Swansea boss Paul Clement, who has spent much of his coaching career to date looking down on the rest of the league table as Carlo Ancelotti’s assistant at Chelsea, PSG, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, has taken to management at the wrong end of the table like a duck to water.

Three wins from four league matches in January including a thrilling first ever away victory over Liverpool at Anfield has breathed new life into a Swansea team who had looked doomed to relegation under Clement’s predecessors Francesco Guidolin and Bob Bradley. And the Swans were desperately unlucky not to emerge from last Sunday’s visit to Manchester City with a potentially precious point, Gabriel Jesus’ injury time winner cruelly denying them at the last.

Before Clement’s arrival, Swansea’s home form had made for uneasy reading with just eight points taken at the Liberty Stadium, a poor return given their record of just five home defeats the previous season. The in-form club is now 6/4 with Coral for the drop while Sunday’s opponents Leicester are slightly longer odds at 2/1 with William Hill to complete a rapid fall from grace and finish in the bottom three just 12 months after topping the pile so thrillingly.

Foxes in desperate need of first away win

The last time Leicester won a Premier League match away from home, against Sunderland last April, the club was motoring towards a first ever top division title win. Now just 10 months on, the deposed champions have yet to register a league win on their travels all season, after boasting a record of just two losses on the road in 2015-16.

To say it has been a disappointing defence of their trophy would be bordering on the understatement of the millennium. And despite Foxes boss Claudio Ranieri getting the dreaded vote of confidence earlier this week, he remains the favourite ahead of Middlesbrough’s Aitor Karanka to be the next top-flight manager to lose his job, registering as short as 6/4 with BetVictor.

On current form, Swansea should go into his match as overwhelming favourites for victory given their recent promising results and Leicester’s continuing awful form. Yet, Bet365 are still offering tasty odds of 6/4 for a home win while Leicester is 21/10 with BetVictor to finally register a first away win of the campaign.

And talking of decent odds, how about this for a potential money maker? With Leicester having lost four matches in succession on the road with no goals scored and 10 conceded, serious consideration should be given to having a small flutter on Swansea keeping a clean sheet on Sunday, with odds of 9/4 on offer from Bet365.

With some difficult matches lying in wait for both clubs, a defeat for either would significantly deepen relegation worries. It promises to be a close but nervy encounter.

Blue Army to Breach Claret Fortress: Betting Preview

Hopeless (and winless) away from home, Burnley have already won at Turf Moor on nine occasions in this league campaign. As a result, the Clarets occupy a respectable mid-table spot as the 2016/17 season approaches its final third.

Home comforts will be an important asset for Burnley this weekend, with league leaders Chelsea imminently coming to town.

One step closer for Conte

Antonio Conte has forged a Chelsea side that looks unstoppable at present. Already, most pundits agree that Chelsea will be runaway champions, with the West London club boasting an at-times unplayable front three. Chelsea also possesses a fantastic Premier League record against Burnley, conceding just one point to the Lancashire side since 2009/10.

With momentum firmly in favour of the visitors, most respected bookmakers are offering nothing better than 2/5 for a Chelsea win. Meanwhile, a braver bettor can back a not unthinkable draw at 15/4 with Bet Victor.

A trip down Memory Lane?

With Burnley fired up, Sunday’s match could easily see a repeat of 2014/15’s opening weekend emerge.

On the evening of 18 August 2014, Burnley made a blazing start against Chelsea. Scottish-Canadian midfielder Scott Arfield opened the scoring on just 14 minutes and Turf Moor erupted. Sadly for the Clarets, the good times were short-lived.

The visitors roared back to win 3-1 that night. However, this Burnley side is eminently stronger than the relegated rabble of two seasons ago. With that in mind, the smart money is on Burnley’s top goalscorer Andre Gray to be the man who lets Chelsea know they have a real game on their hands. Gray is currently 11/1 with Betfred in the First Goalscorer market.

Burnout for the Burnley boys

Odds of up to 17/5 (Bet Victor) are available for a level half time score, followed by a Chelsea win. Chelsea’s superior fitness will be the telling factor where stamina is concerned. That noted, bettors should respect the fact that this Burnley squad has a sufficient team ethic to remain level with Chelsea until half time.

Such a bet could also combine potently with the 2+ Goalscorer market, as the league’s most improved player prepares to take centre stage once again.

Healthy Hazard

Eden Hazard is flourishing in his new role. Under Conte’s system, he has used his athleticism and ball control to more efficiently turn midfield play into all-out attack. This should work extremely well against a Burnley defence which rode its luck in the last home game against Leicester.

On paper at least, it is a farce of a matchup between Hazard and his likeliest personal opponents – Michael Keane and Matt Lowton. This is reflected in unusually short (yet tempting) odds of 17/2 with Bet 365 for Hazard to enjoy a two-goal Sunday salvo.

Predicting the unpredictable

Sky-subscribing Chelsea acolytes, from Quito to Queenstown, should enjoy a fascinating encounter on the big screen. It will be a sign of true championship credentials if Chelsea can break down a resolute Burnley side on hostile turf.

Burnley will surely put up a fight, so the official Betcirca prediction for this encounter is Burnley 2-3 Chelsea (available at 33/1 with Stan James).

Picture Source: Wikipedia Commons / Credit: Aleksandr Osipov

Tottenham vs Middlesbrough – Spurs looking to bounce back

High flying Spurs have taken 2 points from the last two games, including a disappointing 0-0 draw away against lowly Sunderland last Tuesday. They are looking to bounce back at home against a Boro side hovering above the relegation zone.

Playing catch up

Spurs’ form over the Christmas period was truly breathtaking, winning 7/8, including against bitter rivals Chelsea, a game that gave oxygen to the title race. But recent draws against Man City and Sunderland in the league, and their chaotic last minute win against Wycombe in the FA cup, have left the Tottenham faithful slightly on edge. Pochettino will be eager to prove that his squad isn’t stalling in its attempt to bring home their first top flight trophy since 1961, even as Chelsea edge even further in front. The slip up against Sunderland was a missed opportunity to capitalise on Chelsea dropping points against Liverpool and Arsenal’s utterly woeful home defeat against a Watford team who had lost to League 1 Millwall only 3 days before.

A classic Moyes rearguard action left Pochettino deeply frustrated on Tuesday, claiming that “We should have won. It was a massive opportunity to close the gap on Chelsea.” He wouldn’t be wrong to expect a similar approach from Aitor Karanka, whose Boro team’s only saving grace seems to be their ability to shut opponents out. Spurs will have to rekindle some of their flair of recent performances. But all things considered, they should expect to take 3 points at home.

Pochettino could well be without goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, and Kieran Trippier is in doubt as well. Danny Rose, Jan Vertonghen and Erik Lamela are all out with more long term injuries.

Treading water

Karanka’s perennial concern has been his team’s lack of goals; they have managed only 2 in the league in 2017, and 19 for the season overall. At first, it seemed their lack of goals might not be so compounding as to see them threatened by relegation, they were grinding out results at home and even picking up some away points at the beginning of the season. But in the cold, hard light of 2017, Boro are looking very capable of backsliding into a relegation dog fight. Sitting in 15th, with 21 points, a defeat to Spurs could potentially see them slip into the relegation zone for the first time this season, although there is only a slim chance of that happening.

Despite Spurs’ missing goalkeeper, it seems doubtful they will free scoring this Saturday. More likely, they will try and replicate their low scoring away draws with Man City and Arsenal earlier in the season. Head to head, there isn’t much to go on: Spurs won 2:1 in the corresponding fixture at the Riverside in September, but they haven’t otherwise played since 2009 when Boro was last in the Prem.

Boro have George Friend, Calum Chambers and Gaston Ramirez all unavailable.

The value

There is no value betting on a straight win for Spurs at 1/4 on Bet365, but Spurs to Win & BTTS No at 5/6 is tastier, considering Boro’s impotence up front, and could be worth including in an accumulator.

Bet Victor has Delle Alli to score anytime at 19/20 and Son Heung-Min at 5/4, which seems good value considering their form.