Tag: Football Tips

Goals Expected At Anfield

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

2016 ends with what looks a Premier League classic on Saturday evening when Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield.

This clash between two of the best entertainers in England’s top flight promises to be one of the best games of the year as a defeat for either side is unthinkable.

Chelsea will lead the table going into 2017 and these two sides are the nearest pursuers to the Blues’ in the title race and both Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp will be well aware that a defeat for their side could see them out of the title race in January.

The bookies make Liverpool their 11/8 favourites with pretty much every layer and with three successive wins after a mini blip at the start of the month they are proving a popular selection.

City arrives in Merseyside in form as well, with three wins on the spin also; they are priced up at 13/5 across the board, and with a draw no good for either side, they will be going all out for the victory.

Where Do We Profit From This Match-up?

This is as tough as it gets to find a winner, and for me, the value plays lie far away from the match outcome, and the areas we have to concentrate instead for the winners are on the goals markets.

In eight of Liverpool’s last 12 matches, both teams have scored and that is exactly the same record at City; the 8/15 on both teams scoring again with William Hills is a banker for the NY Eve BTTS coupon, or for any big staking clients in a single.

Over 2.5 goals has also come in as a winner in four of the last five Liverpool matches and in four of the last six over at City, and again that looks another banker at the general 8/13 that is with all the bookies.

This match sees two of the best attacking sides in the Premier League, with equally poor defenses having to go all out for the win and with goals looking a certainty for smaller punters the over 3.5 goals in the match and the over 4.5 goals at 7/4 and 4/1 again with William Hills should be played.

Sergio Aguero returns for City after missing four games through suspension, which strengthens the goals claim and the Argentinian is 5.00 to score the opening goal on his return in a game where goals are expected the 2.10 on him to score at any time looks a nice play.

Can the Tigers tame the Toffees?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Hull City vs Everton may not be a fixture to arouse the passion except if you come from Hull or Liverpool. However, there are a few interesting bets on offer and is the reason why we are previewing this game. Hull have had a tough season so far. They are clearly going to be one of the teams that will either get relegated or escape by the skin of their teeth. Losing Steve Bruce was a blow and they no longer look the same team without his guidance. Mike Phelan came in to steady the boat but his lack of managerial experience as a number one is proving to be costly.

Time to Make a Move

Hull dare not risk a gap developing at the bottom of the table. History tells us that teams that sit bottom of the league on New Years’ Day rarely survive. Hull City host Everton in what will be a vital festive programme for the Tigers. Everton has been inconsistent of late and the injury time loss to close rivals Liverpool didn’t help.

There are several interesting bets on offer that represent value. Firstly we can see odds of 19-5 from BetVictor for a Hull City victory. Everton has certainly been stronger than Hull this season. The key question is does that really convert to such poor odds for the home team in this fixture? To find odds of almost 4-1 for a home team to win a Premier League fixture is a rarity.

Everton is certainly well below the level of the top clubs and odds of 19-5 do seem like value. The problem with taking such a bet is that Hull is not playing well enough to win many games. You can also get odds of 13-5 on the draw with BetVictor which is another great value bet in our opinion.

Can Everton be backed for Value?

If there is value in backing Hull and the draw then you clearly cannot have it all ways. Something has to give. By sheer definition, backing Everton cannot be value. You can get odds of 4-5 for an Everton victory with Ladbrokes. Those odds are too short given the inconsistency of Everton’s season and the fact that they are the away team.

Even if Everton should prevail and take all three points, those odds are still too short. Betting is about finding the best value bets and not just identifying which team is likely to win. Mike Phelan must realise that his team clearly needs to push on after Christmas and start picking up regular points.

Hull will need to reach at least 35pts to have a realistic chance of surviving. Their current points per game total leave them short of that figure. If Mike Phelan cannot get an increased effort from his players then he could well be the next Premier League manager to get the sack.

Key Boxing Day Match for Arsenal

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This Boxing Day we see West Brom travel to the Emirates to take on an Arsenal side reeling for 2 consecutive league defeats. Having taken the lead in both games, Wenger will be furious that he has allowed a 9 point gap to open between his team and Chelsea. West Brom comes into this game on the back of decent form, and having lost to both Chelsea and Man United in recent games, they will be looking to Arsenal to take a scalp against one of the top teams in the league.

Getting back on track

The game against City was a real chance to keep up with the leaders while doing damage to an immediate rival, but it wasn’t to be; as against Everton in their previous game, Arsenal fell to another disappointing defeat. Their second half capitulation at the Etihad has led to some serious soul-searching, with Mesut Ozil coming under focus for a lacklustre display, and Wenger deflecting that criticism onto others in his team. Arsenal fans are looking for results rather than excuses, and a home game against West Brom seems to be the opportunity to regroup.

Looking at the head to head records we can see Arsenal have a strong pedigree of beating Albion: 14 victories, 3 draws and 3 losses for Wenger’s team, and West Brom haven’t beaten them away since 2010.

Arsenal can add Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Shkodan Mustafi to a growing list of first team players out with injuries. In-form Alexis Sanchez and Theo Walcott will be available, and the focus will be on Ozil, Granit Xhaka and Francis Coquelin to make big improvements on their performances in Manchester.

Tony Pulis looking for one up against an old rival

The bitter feud between these two managers has cooled in recent years, but no doubt will Pulis be hoping to take some valuable points away against a man of whom he once said “I’ve got nothing against foreign managers, they are very nice people. Apart from Arsene Wenger.”

West Brom have been in solid form this far, sitting pretty in 8th place, they have had a tough run of games leading up to Christmas, and while there is no shame in their losses to Chelsea and United, Pulis will be looking to improve on those performances to take at least a point in North London.

West Brom has a mostly fit squad, with only Jonny Evans and James Morrison of their regular starters in doubt.

Where is the value?

It’s likely that we will see another rearguard display from Pulis’ boys. While West Brom has been fairly free-scoring against teams they are more confident of a result against, we have seen a much more cautious, organised approach against the bigger club. It’s likely that they will allow Arsenal the majority of possession while hoping to do some damage in the air from set pieces.

Arsenal to win is at 1/3 with Bet365, so it might be worth enhancing these odds, and seeing as West Brom failed to score against either Chelsea or United it could be worth taking Arsenal to Win BTTS/No at 6/5. I think this game will really depend on how Arsenal turn out on the day; if they can fire themselves up to get a result they desperately need, then they should be able to take all the points with minimal fuss. But should the flaky, unreliable Arsenal we have seen all too much of in recent times turn up, then there could be value in backing West Brom on a double chance at 2/1 with William Hill, but this is definitely an outside chance.

 

Will Leicester City Make History Again?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Leicester City overcame pre-season odds of 5000-1 to win the Premier League last season. This is surely a feat that will never be repeated in our lifetime. They made history several times with regards to the records that they set but they are in danger of doing so again.

Only one team in the history of the English top flight have been relegated the season after being champions. The Foxes are in danger of repeating that. They only have 17pts from 17 games and that point per game ratio if continued will leave them fighting relegation come the end of the season.

The Big Problems

They host Everton in what is a crucial game for the Foxes. While it isn’t a “must-win” game by any means, defeat would be a big blow for Leicester. So just what has gone wrong? It’s an accumulation of problems. The main one has been their level of intensity. This has dropped alarmingly since last season and the stats back that up. There is a reason why top players and top teams keep on performing season after season. The big advantage that they have is in their mentality.

The top players are “top players” because they produce top performances season after season. If the Leicester players were in that category then they would surely have been snapped up by other clubs before they joined Leicester City. So a big problem has been in being able to rise to the same heights again and to retain the motivation levels. Clearly, Leicester has struggled in this area. Secondly, they lost N’Golo Kante to Chelsea.

Losing the Midfield Dynamo

Allowing Chelsea to snatch N’Golo Kante has proved to be a big loss for Leicester. So much of their play went through him and he was certainly pivotal in most of their attacking play. The new rules on holding and grappling in the penalty area have also handicapped Leicester City. Players like Wes Morgan and Robert Huth were masters of the “dark arts” of defending.

Leicester will continue to struggle this season because they have simply lost their intensity. They host Everton who will be eager to bounce back from their stoppage time home derby defeat to Liverpool. Despite all of Leicester’s problems, they can be backed at an outstanding 9-4 with Coral. That is surely too high and represents great value. Leicester swept aside Manchester City recently which is another indication that 9-4 is a good bet.

The draw can be backed at 12-5 with Ladbrokes while Everton seems poor value at 2-1 with BetVictor. The demands of playing Champions League football have also taken their toll on Leicester. In the Premier League, opponents have become very familiar with Leicester’s style and this is another factor as to why they have struggled this season.

Liverpool Simply Cannot Afford to Lose

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The Merseyside Derby is one of the most eagerly awaited matches in the English Premier League calendar. This fixture has a long history with many famous matches being played down the years. Merseyside Derbies have even been played out in cup finals too. There were two famous all-Merseyside FA Cup finals within the space of three years in 1986 and 1989. On Monday evening they will be battling for points at Goodison Park. Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp has made a great start to the season. Everton has been solid as well.

Title D-Day for Liverpool

It is only a couple of weeks ago that Liverpool was being spoken of as title challengers. They then had a crushing 4-3 loss at Bournemouth and dropped further points at home to West Ham. Couple this with Chelsea’s brilliant unbeaten run and the Reds are now nine points behind the men from Stamford Bridge. Should they lose this derby on Monday night then it will look increasingly likely that the title could be slipping away before the end of the calendar year.

Liverpool has put in numerous stunning attacking displays this season. Jurgen Klopp has certainly brought exciting times to Anfield. The question is, do Liverpool really have the personnel to challenge for the title? There is a world of difference between challenging in November and being in contention in April. Liverpool is similar to Manchester City in that they are prone to leaking goals. Their capitulation away to Bournemouth was proof of that.

Koeman has steadied the Ship

Everton, on the other hand, has been solid if unspectacular this season. After several recent managerial changes, they clearly needed stability. David Moyes left to go to Old Trafford and Roberto Martinez did well for a while before he was replaced. It is tough to see Everton reaching the top six this season. This match is a tough one to call because it all depends on whether Liverpool can “park the bus” well enough to prevent defensive mistakes.

This has been their Achilles heel this season. Even their goalkeepers have been causing Jurgen Klopp problems. It is clear that Liverpool needs to strengthen their defence. If they cannot do so in time during the January transfer window then the title is surely out of reach this season. William Hill quotes odds of 19-20 for a Liverpool win. Meanwhile, Everton can be backed at 3-1 with PaddyPower and Stan James with the draw at 11-4 with Bet365.

If you are looking for value in these prices then it doesn’t appear to be with Liverpool. Everton will be up for this game. Their loyal fans will not let them put in anything other than a solid display. Jurgen Klopp will be acutely aware that staying nine points behind Chelsea in the table could prove to be terminal for their title chances. The value does seem to be either in the draw at 11-4 or the 3-1 for a home win.

West Brom vs. Man United – Can Pulis frustrate Mourinho?

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Week 17 sees Man United head to the Hawthorns to take on West Brom for Saturday’s 17:30 fixture. United will be looking to build on improving form as they try to salvage something from their worst start to a Premier League campaign since 1989. After putting together a decent run of results they are just about keeping pace with battle for European places in 6th. In contrast, Pulis’ West Brom are having a fantastic start to the season, only 4 points and 1 place behind United in 7th, having scored 1 more goal than Jose’s £718 million squad have managed.

The Devils comes to Albion

December has been good to United so far, they go into this game on the back of two consecutive wins against Tottenham at home and Palace away, and having qualified for the next round of the Europa League. One serious problem they have exhibited in the season so far is an inability to kill games off, leading to throwing away leads in the last 10 minutes. We saw this with Everton, Stoke and, most bitterly, against Arsenal at Old Trafford. The last two results seem to buck this trend and show a United with strength of character and mental resilience more resembling that of years gone past. This was especially clear in the Palace game, where they were able to turn a draw into 3 points in the 88th minute. It seems like United are finally pulling together some good form.

Bailly going off on Wednesday, and almost certainly missing the game on Saturday, contributes to a small injury crisis at United, especially in defence. They will be without him, Smalling and Shaw at the back, and emerging attacking prospect Henrik Mkhitaryan is out until late December.

Bagging a result

West Brom is looking like they could be this season’s surprise package. The steady leadership of Tony Pulis has seen them rise to the dizzying heights of 7th place after a string of solid performances. Last Sunday saw them take Chelsea on in an impressive organised, defensive display; only conceding and losing the match through a superb piece of play by star striker Diego Costa. Wednesday night’s game saw them take apart Swansea in all of 13 minutes, with Salomón Rondon scoring one of the few all-headed hat-tricks in Premier League history. The quality of deliveries leading to the goals is worth noting.

Their form in the last month and a half has been particularly good, with 4 wins in 6 and the only loss to Chelsea. A large part of Albion’s success so far this season has come from beating teams equal or below them in the table; against supposedly higher quality teams they have mostly come up short.
However, playing at the Hawthorns against a United team still taking Bambi-esque steps towards having any kind of form, and buoyed by their positive performance against Chelsea, Pulis may just fancy his chances for a good result. He will have an almost entirely fit squad, missing only Evans and Berahino.

Finding the value in a tight game

Expect another organised performance from West Brom, and a laboured, possession-heavy United performance. Bet 365 have Under 2.5 goals at 3/4, which seems to be good value. Coral have 1:1 at 8/1, also worth a punt. Salomón Rondon anytime goalscorer is at 11/5 on Bet Victor if you think he will be able to carry on with his goal scoring run.