If Tottenham is going to pull off an upset and leapfrog Chelsea to win the Premier League this season, they’ll have to start by winning what’s certain to be a tough test at Anfield on February 11. Despite a gap of four points and three league places, Spurs aren’t necessarily the favourites heading into what will be a crunch match.
Now, before we run through the odds and see exactly where the bookmakers’ sympathies lay, there are two important facts to point out. The first is that Tottenham hasn’t won at Anfield since 2011. In the last eight games between Liverpool and Tottenham at Anfield, the former have won five and drawn three. To make things worse for the visitors, Anfield is the place they’ve lost the most frequently in the Premier League (15 losses from 24 games).
History Doesn’t Favour Spurs
For all intents and purposes, Spurs don’t seem to like travelling north to play Liverpool. In fact, manager Mauricio Pochettino doesn’t seem to like playing against Liverpool anywhere as he’s never beaten them with a Tottenham team. However, as bad as history has been to the London club, those that like to live in the moment will be buoyed by our second significant fact: Liverpool hasn’t won in the Premier League in 2017.
If we discount an FA win at Plymouth Argyle, Liverpool seems to have perfected the art of losing to “lesser teams” and drawing with top opposition. For example, the Reds went from a well-earned draw against Chelsea to losing 2-0 to Hull City. Aside from being a surprising turn of events, this run of results seems to suggest that Liverpool is inconsistent.
Naturally, if you’re going to win the Premier League, you have to be consistent; especially after Christmas. However, we’re not talking about the title race; we’re looking at Liverpool vs. Tottenham in isolation. Based on this recent run, the data would suggest that Liverpool will enter the game as favourites (from a historical standpoint), but the end result will be a draw. If you’re inclined to follow this logic, 23/10 on a draw with Sun Bets isn’t a bad price. However, for our money, Liverpool half-time and a draw full-time at 14/1 with Sky Bet is hard to ignore.
Confidence Will Help Liverpool, but Tottenham Remain a Threat
There’s no doubt Liverpool will start the match full of confidence. Even if we ignore history, Anfield is always a fortress and with the side desperate to give the home fans a win in 2017, they’ll no doubt come out all guns blazing. A single goal before half-time is more than possible, but with Tottenham showing a propensity to score, there’s every chance they’ll come back in the second half.
In fact, as goal hungry as Tottenham have been in recent weeks, Liverpool have also shown they’re no strangers to the back of the net. 52 goals in 24 Premier League matches is better than anyone (except Arsenal who also has 52 goals) and if the Reds can continue this form, we could be in for a high-scoring draw. 2-2 is currently 12/1 at Coral which, when you consider 3-3 is 50/1, doesn’t look to be a bad bet.
It Could be Too Close to Call
Why haven’t we mentioned the odds on a win?
Well, it should come as no secret that we’re pushing our chips towards a draw on this one. However, if you’re looking to back the historical stats, 6/5 is the price on a Liverpool win at Sun Bets. In contrast, if current form is more important, then 11/5 is the going rate at Coral. Either way, the odds makers have it close, which is why we’re hedging our bets on a stalemate.
Does that mean there won’t be goals and drama? Certainly not. However, if both teams play to their potential, then there should be very little to choose between them on this occasion.
