Tag: four nations betting

Kiwis in Driving Seat to Reach Four Nations Final

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

New Zealand’s final round robin match of the Four Nations provides coach David Kidwell with a bit of a headache. On one hand, it would be tempting to give his players a rest ahead of an expected final against Australia. But on the other hand, the match may be the perfect opportunity to play some of his players into form and allow combinations to develop.

The players desperately seeking form include Isaac Luke, Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Thomas Leuluai. These three are critical in helping Shaun Johnson shoulder some of the creative workload, as the Kiwis simply look too predictable relying on Johnson to break the line, create overlaps or generally add a spark.

Luke needs to run the ball more, he ran just once against the Kangaroos. Kenny-Dowall’s been poor in the tournament, but at club level consistently breaks the line (9 line breaks, 112 tackle busts in 2016). And, Leuluai just needs to gel with Johnson in the way Kieran Foran does. Kidwell’s taken the opposite approach to Kenny-Dowall and instead of giving him the opportunity to find some form, he has dropped him altogether.

Historically, NZ struggle when they play without Simon Mannering and Kieran Foran, so they should use this match against Scotland as an opportunity to find a way to get it done without them. That means strong defence in the middle of the park, controlling the speed of the play, the ball, and a kicking game that is on both sides of the park.

Mind you, the talk of playing players into form and finding synergy are premature. They must win well to ensure an easy passage into the final.

Let’s take a look at the key talking points ahead of the Round 3 clash:

Teams

New Zealand: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Jason Nightingale, Solomone Kata, Gerard Beale, David Fusitu’a, Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson, Jesse Bromwich (c), Issac Luke, Adam Blair, Manu Ma’u, Tohu Harris, Greg Eastwood, Te Maire Martin, Martin Taupau, James Fisher-Harris, Joseph Tapine, Lewis Brown, Jordan Rapana (two to be omitted).

Scotland: (From) Danny Addy, Euan Aitken, Sam Brooks, Danny Brough (c), Tyler Cassel, Lachlan Coote, Luke Douglas, Dale Ferguson, Ben Hellewell, Liam Hood, Ben Kavanagh, Kane Linnett, Frankie Mariano, Brett Phillips, Callum Phillips, Matty Russell, David Scott, Lewis Tierney, Adam Walker (two to be omitted).

Team Selection Talking Points

New Zealand:The Kiwis are likely to give four new players a taste of international football with David Fusitu’a, Te Maire Martin, James Fisher-Harris and Joseph Tapine all included in the game day squad.

In changes to the team that lost to Australia, one-test Kiwi Dallin Watene-Zelezniak will start at fullback, instead of Jordan Kahu. Jason Nightingale returns to the wing, pushing Gerard Beale to the centres and Shaun Kenny-Dowall out of the team.

Manu Ma’u and Greg Eastwood will start in the forwards instead of the rested Kevin Proctor and Jason Taumalolo.

Scotland:Senior leader Luke Douglas noted that a number of players were tending to injuries, so expect one or two changes to the team that pushed England close last week. No matter which players turn out we’re sure another dose of international football for the players will pay long-term dividends.

Tournament Form

New Zealand: The Kiwis started by beating England by one point before losing to Australia 14-8 last weekend. The Kiwis have been slow out of the starting blocks on both occasions, giving up early leads and momentum. They’ll be looking to rectify that in a game they’ll probably view as an opportunity to fine-tune ahead of an expected final next week. Although, that’s not a done deal. New Zealand will need to beat Scotland convincingly and hope England don’t beat Australia by a large margin.

Scotland: The plucky underdogs have shown glimpses of form in their first two losses. However, they’ve struggled to keep it up for the full eighty minutes. After losses by 42 points and 26 points respectively, Scotland hasn’t travelled badly, but they face an almost impossible task against a New Zealand team who have resisted the urge to rest players in their final game of the tournament.

Odds

New Zealand: $1.01 from all major bookmakers.

Scotland: $65 from Betfair.

Prediction and Tips

Points haven’t come that easily for the Kiwis in the Four Nations thus far, registering just 25 across the two games. However, against a relatively immature international team, Scotland expect there to be a few more opportunities to exploit. We like New Zealand by 41-45 – $11 at Sportsbet.

Scotland Facing Massive Task in Four Nations Debut

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The term David and Goliath has taken on new meaning in modern times. It’s now a familiar description of an underdog facing off against an unbackable favourite, and in the case of the Four Nations openers between Australia and Scotland, it is particularly apt.

The teams have never met before in international rugby league, however, the world rankings tell a pretty significant story. Top-ranked Australia, the current world champions, and two-time winners of the competition, are pitted against the 9th best team in the World; a team that hasn’t played in the competition before.

It looks to be an almighty task for little David.

Scotland qualified for the tournament for the first time thanks to their victory in the 2014 European Cup. They qualified by beating France, Ireland, and Wales who are all ranked above them in the world rankings. However, their task is considerably tougher this time around against even better opponents.

Let’s take a look at the key talking points ahead of the Round 1 clash:

Teams

Australia: Matt Moylan, Josh Mansour, Justin O’Neill, Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson, James Maloney, Cooper Cronk, Aaron Woods, Cameron Smith (c), David Klemmer, Sam Thaiday, Tyson Frizell, Jake Trobojevic. Interchange: Jake Friend, Shannon Boyd, Trent Merrin, Michael Morgan, Valentine Holmes. (one to be omitted).

Scotland: Danny Addy, Dale Ferguson, Ben Kavanagh; Frankie Mariano; Luke Douglas, Ryan Brierley, Danny Brough (c); Adam Walker; Billy McConnachie; Liam Hood; Ben Hellewell; Sheldon Powe-Hobbs; Lachlan Coote, Kane Linnett; Euan Aitken; Matthew Russell; Sam Brooks; Lewis Tierney; Callum Phillips.

Team Selection Talking Points

Australia: As expected, Mal Meninga has handed a swathe of players representative debuts. Moylan, Maloney, O’Neill, Trobojevic and Friend will all suit up for Australia for the first time in a move that ensures that the entire Kangaroos squad sees some action in the tournament. The team is in no way demonstrative of a complacent attitude towards the Scots, rather it sets out the significant strength of the Australian 24-man squad.

Scotland: Crafty Matty Russell misses out to Coote at fullback, but has shifted to the wing to complete an impressive back three when premiership winner Lewis Tierney is added to the mix as well. The centre pairing of Aitken and Linnet is strong. And keep an eye out for Tyler Cassel who has been in and around the West Tigers set up for some time.

It’s a shame that Peter Wallace and Keith Galloway aren’t available.

Form

Australia: W, W, L, L, W, W

Scotland: L, L, L, L, W, W

Odds

Australia: $1.01 across the board.

Scotland: $41 at bet365

Prediction and Tips

There’s little chance of an upset in this one. In the four previous editions of the Four Nations tournament, no team out of PNG, Samoa, Wales or France has been able to get the better of one of the big three. Therefore, you might need to get creative if you’re going to take any money from your bookmaker in Four Nations betting. Consider the $1.90 on offer at bet365 if there is under 64.5 points scored in the game – as a comparison, in their last match against anyone other than NZ, Australia beat Samoa 44-18 (62 points). Or you can have a read through our preview of the New Zealand / England matchup and put together a higher paying multi bet.

Four Nations Defending Champions May Struggle to Keep Pace

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

New Zealand’s chances of defending their Four Nations rugby league title are looking seriously slim after the exit of long-term coach Stephen Kearney and a heavy warm-up loss to Australia. Here’s a look at all the teams involved and their chances:

Australia

Strengths: As far as spines go, the Australian set up is incredible. Smith, Cronk, Thurston and Boyd are all NRL premiership winners, and when they play together they are nigh on impossible to get the better of.

All are consummate professionals who pride themselves on error free play, quality decision-making and high involvement. Add Greg Inglis to the mix, and it’s hard to fathom how any side will beat them.

Weaknesses: It’s very hard to find weaknesses in a squad that features the likes of the above. But in Blake Ferguson and Josh Dugan, together making up the right-hand edge of the Australian backline, they have two hot or cold players that have struggled to make an impact at test level. The duo was dreadful against the Kiwis considering the amount of ball they had, and completely failed to exploit Solomone Kata on his NZ debut.

Star Turn: At just 21 yeas of age, Cronulla Sharks flyer Valentine Holmes is only just beginning his NRL and Test career. However, the influence the fleet-footed winger can have on the tournament stretches far beyond his relative inexperience. After making a promising debut, including a try, in the warm-up match against the Kiwis, Holmes is poised to set the tournament alight with his skill and speed.

The only possible saving grace for opposition teams is if Mal Meninga can’t find room for Holmes once Josh Mansour returns to the squad after missing the warm-up match because of his wedding.

Odds: $1.60 at Palmerbet.

Predicted Finish: Australia to win it. There is just too little chance that all of them have an off game on the same day.

New Zealand

Strengths: Big and mobile forward packs have always been part of the Kiwis game. 2016 is no different. The Kiwis pack boasts the likes of Dally M Medal winner Jason Taumalolo, NRL Prop of the Year Jesse Bromwich, and the reliable Melbourne Storm backrowers Tohu Harris and Kevin Procter. As a result, the Kiwis should get plenty of metres and go-forward out of their big men.

Weaknesses: The warm-up loss to Australia revealed a number of chinks in the New Zealand armour.

Johnson’s fifth tackle plays have been criticised heavily. Rightfully so too; the flamboyant number 7 struggled to kick in general play, and often tried to force the issue with last tackle attacking raids that his outside men weren’t on board with.

Opposition teams will be wise to exploit the weak defence of Kenny-Dowall’s right edge (made worse with Simon Mannering’s withdrawal from the tournament), while the Kiwis back three might also struggle to gain yards deep in their own half.

Look out for Kidwell opting for young gun Te Maire Martin rather than the ineffective Lewis Brown in the utility role.

Discipline is probably worth a mention here too.

Star Turn: One of the standouts in the Kiwis warm up game was Martin Taupau. Coming off the bench, the Manly powerhouse had 129 metres for 10 carries to go with five tackle busts, to easily be New Zealand’s best on the night. Coming off the bench gives Taupau an opportunity to make a seriously meaningful impact.

Odds: $4 is the best offer on NZ, from Ladbrokes.

Predicted Finish: The Kiwis haven’t always travelled to the UK well. Most recently they lost a bilateral series in 2015. They’re also still familiarising themselves with a new coaching structure, as well as missing key players (Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Mannering). They might struggle to make the final this year. 3rd.

England

Strengths: New coach Wayne Bennet has a tricky task ensuring his team are equipped to compete with the Kangaroos and Kiwis. It’s made manageable playing on home soil. It’s made believable thanks to the powerful forward pack he has at his disposal. Josh Hodgson, Sam and George Burgess, James Graham and Elliot Whitehead all NRL-experienced, and all (save for George maybe) are coming off excellent seasons.

Weaknesses: Gareth Widdop’s poor year in the NRL this season could worry the hosts, however, a bigger worry is probably the lack of big game experience. They haven’t made many tournament finals of late and gave up a late last minute try to the Kiwis in the most recent World Cup. The lack of experience and big game mettle could hurt them in the key stages.

Star Turn: Take away injury and suspension, and Canberra rake Hodgson may have been the first English winner of the NRL’s prestigious Dally M Medal this season. As it was, Hodgson finished eight points behind the winners but was arguably more influential for his team’s run to the finals.

Odds: $5.50 looks great money from Bet365. LuxBet also has an option on an Australia / England final at an attractive $2.30.

Predicted Finish: 2nd.

Scotland

Strengths: The ultimate underdogs will struggle to win a game in their first ever Four Nations. The squad looks too light on paper to scare any of the three heavyweights. If they are to get anywhere near, they’ll need the kicking game of former Man of Steel, Danny Brough, or the NRL expertise of Aitken, Coote, Douglas and Linnet.

Weaknesses: Not so much of a weakness as a simple reality – they are playing the three best nations in world rugby league.

Star Turn: Lachlan Coote isn’t in the powerful mould of Inglis, nor does he have the speed of a James Tedesco, but he is very clever. Essentially, he’s another half. With a tremendous short kicking game and an unparalleled rugby league brain, the Cowboys number is a tremendous boost to the tournament rookies.

Odds: Not really worth mentioning, but you’ll get 500/1 at most bookies.

Predicted Finish: Can’t see them winning a game. Last.

Four Nations kicks off this Friday, October 28th.