Major sporting tournaments aren’t usually hyped up with words like, “consistency”, “structure” and “control”, but in the case of the Four Nations rugby league final featuring New Zealand and Australia this weekend, they’re the words that accurately describe the qualities of the final’s favourites.
The Kangaroos are the overwhelming favourites to win Sunday’s final at Anfield because of their mastery in sucking the life out of opposition teams and forcing them into capitulating errors. It’s a formula that has served them well in all three of their round-robin games in the tournament thus far, and a structure that fellow finalists, New Zealand, have struggled to adjust to in their previous four meetings.
With the best completion rate of the tournament, the fewest errors made and the most experience playmaking spine imaginable, the Kangaroos should get the better of the undermanned Kiwis. Let’s look at the key talking points that reinforce their favouritism:
Teams
Australia: Darius Boyd, Blake Ferguson, Greg Inglis, Josh Dugan, Valentine Holmes, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Matt Scott, Cameron Smith (c), Aaron Woods, Boyd Cordner, Matt Gillett, Trent Merrin, Michael Morgan, David Klemmer, Tyson Frizell, Shannon Boyd, Jake Trbojevic, Justin O’Neill.
New Zealand: Adam Blair, Jesse Bromwich (c), Lewis Brown, Greg Eastwood, James Fisher-Harris, David Fusitu’a, Tohu Harris, Shaun Johnson, Jordan Kahu, Solomone Kata, Shaun Kenny-Dowall, Issac Luke, Te Maire Martin, Manu Ma’u, Kevin Proctor, Jordan Rapana, Joseph Tapine, Jason Taumalolo, Martin Taupau.
Team Selection Talking Points
Australia: Sam Thaiday’s absence will be felt by the Australia forward pack. On a playing field that’s been reduced by 9 metres – a move that is expected to create a game dominated by forwards – Australia have opted for Jake Trobojevic and Boyd Cordner to replace the big man. Although there could be changes once the teams actually run out.
New Zealand: David Kidwell is keeping people guessing, but Tohu Harris is expected to race to replace Thomas Leuluai at standoff. The thinking must be that the defensive edge and big game experience that he brings to the team is more favourable than the flair but inexperience of six game NRL Penrith player Te Maire Martin.
Form
Australia: The pre-tournament favourites have looked imperious in the tournament thus far. After rolling Scotland, resting some of their stars and still holding out the Kiwis and turning in a dominant second half to dispel the English, the Kangaroos are rightly at short odds to take out a second global title on the bounce. Mal Meninga has shown his success at Queensland wasn’t just about the players, as he’s instilled a belief and a culture amongst his team that has resulted in them playing sensational footy.
New Zealand: Even before the Kiwis loss to Scotland their form had been scrappy. Illustrated by the narrow win against England in round 1, and an inaccurate display against Australia the week after. But the real worry was the attitude and desire shown against the Scots last week. In a game they were expected to dominate, the Kiwis only just managed a draw. Andrew Johns was super critical of their arrogance ahead of the game and the control exerted by Shaun Johnson. While not entirely fair, the message is clear. The Kiwis must show passion right from the kickoff, start well and eliminate mistakes if they’re to be any chance in the final.
That said, history shows us they do get lucky in one-off finals from time to time.
Odds
Australia: $1.25 from Sportsbet.
England: $4.33 is the best for the Kiwis at Bet365.
Prediction and Tips
Who are we to bet against Kangaroos playmaker, Jonathan Thurston who is set to play his final game on English soil having never lost a game. Interestingly, Wikipedia already has Australia as the winners and New Zealand as the runner-up. Australia by 14.
