Tag: Gabrial’s Kaka

Doncaster Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The going looks likely to be good for Saturday’s Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster, the traditional curtain-raiser to the new turf flat season.

Our ante-post selections Zarwaan (12-1) and Gabrial’s Kaka (14-1) have both received favourable draws in 18 and 22 respectively. If you backed Buckstay, he missed the cut and runs in the Spring Mile instead but stakes will be returned.

Bookmakers are finding it hard to split Mange All, Zarwaan and Gm Hopkins and will be delighted if anything outside of these three passes the post in front. The Spring Mile may show whether or not the favoured high draw theory is correct and I am passing over Buckstay from stall 1 in that contest. The money has all been for Certificate here but this is a stiff test for such an inexperienced horse and it may be worth taking a chance with Donny Rover.

He ended last season with victories at Newmarket and Nottingham, both over ten furlongs. That may not seem the best preparation for a straight mile but he did win first time out over this trip. He is also racing off the same mark as his last start in October and will be staying on at the finish.

Tullius looks difficult to oppose in the Doncaster Mile but could still represent value if you can get close to even money. He was runner-up in the Lincoln last year but ended the season holding his own in Group 1 company. He was a fine second to Olympic Glory and fourth to Charm Spirit, both at Ascot. He probably prefers a bit of cut in the ground but there certainly won’t be any danger of fast ground at Town Moor.

Glory Awaits is something of an enigma having chased home Dawn Approach at 150-1 in the 2000 Guineas a couple of years ago. He hasn’t produced anything like that since and Baltic Knight will probably pose the biggest threat for Richard Hannon.

The Cammidge Trophy looks wide open and I’m siding with Naadirr who was tough and consistent last season for Marco Botti. He looks the type of horse to improve from three to four and can kick of the new campaign with a victory.

Aetna, Astaire and Heaven’s Guest are all capable of winning this on their best form but Naadirr looks good each-way value.

Tullius 2.00 @4-6 888Sport

Naadirr 2.35 @7-1 Boylesports

Donny Rover 3.10 @16-1 Stan James

Zarwaan @12-1 Ante-post

Gabrial’s Kaka @14-1 Ante-post

Lincoln Handicap – Ante-post Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In last week’s Lincoln preview we recommended Zarwaan at 12-1 and he is now a top-priced 10-1 with Bet Victor.

Mange All and Gm Hopkins continue to dominate the market for William Haggas and John Gosden. Both stables have a fine record in the race so they should certainly give their supporters a run for their money. I don’t think that there can be much value left at odds of 11-2 and 7-1 respectively so I’ve been looking further down the weights in the hope of unearthing an each-way alternative.

With recent winners returned at 16-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 20-1, we know from experience that the market can get this race badly wrong. The draw is another factor to take into account, although that too is something of a mystery. Most pundits had satisfied themselves that a middle to high draw is ideal. Lo and behold, the winner Ocean Tempest emerged from stall 3 last season.

One horse that does catch my eye is Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Buckstay. I tipped him for last season’s Cambridgeshire and he ran a fine race to be fourth behind Bronze Angel. He is now a staggering 16lbs better off with the winner.

Maxime Guyon rode him that day and hit the front over a furlong from home before being swamped in the closing stages. He again clashed with Bronze Angel at Ascot in heavy ground in the Balmoral Handicap but the draw gave him no chance that day. He finished third on his side but was only ninth overall and that run can be safely ignored.

Buckstay has some form with cut in the ground but does not look as though he appreciates extremes of going. Cam Hardie has been booked for the ride and he takes off a handy 3lbs. With a massive 93 horses left in, Buckstay may not get a run from 33 in the handicap but we can take a bit of the 25-1 and get a refund if he is balloted out.

It looks as though Bronze Angel will carry top weight for Marcus Tregoning with Ocean Tempest just below him, attempting to repeat last year’s triumph. The three market leaders are safely in the top of the handicap and Richard Fahey hopes to run three including both Gabrial’s Kaka and Gabrial. It’s anybody’s guess how Gabrial will cope with this large field but Gabrial’s Kaka should go well. Fahey is optimistic about his chances and 14-1 represents fair value.

Zarwaan @12-1*

Buckstay @25-1 BetVictor (non-runner – no bet)

Gabrial’s Kaka @14-1 William Hill

*Ante-post

Lincoln Ante-Post Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

With Cheltenham now behind us, Flat racing fans will be getting excited about the new turf season. Apparently Gleneagles has been catching pigeons at Ballydoyle and has been backed off the boards for the 2000 Guineas while the powers-that-be have been tinkering with the jockeys’ championship dates. Of more immediate interest is the Lincoln Handicap, the traditional cavalry charge at Town Moor.

There will be all of the usual debate about the draw and the going and the last four results makes you wonder whether or not it is wise to get involved. They have been 16-1, 25-1, 20-1 and 20-1. Prior to that there were two well-backed favourites in Expresso Star and Penitent. They were trained by John Gosden and William Haggas respectively so that is a good place to start.

At present, the Haggas-trained Mange All is 6-1 favourite with the Gosden-trained Gm Hopkins at 8-1. Mange All won a decent prize at Ascot in July when just getting up to beat American Hope by a neck. He ran a good race under a penalty next time when beaten by The Corsican and rounded off his three-year-old season by finishing fourth to Gm Hopkins in the Silver Cambridgeshire. He is 3lbs better off for three and three-quarter lengths with the winner.

Gm Hopkins was put up 9lbs for that win and was only fourth at York before finishing third at Nottingham off the same mark. Both trainers obviously know what they are doing but neither really appeals at single figure prices.

Ed Dunlop has an interesting contender in Zarwaan, a winner over six furlongs at Haydock in July and runner-up to Chatez in the Silver Bowl at the same course. He then ran a fine fifth of 30 in the Britannia at Royal Ascot before finishing fourth at Newmarket in a Listed race.

Last season we tipped Gabrial’s Kaka with trainer Richard Fahey quite bullish about his chances in the build-up to the race. He was there with every chance three furlongs out but faded back into sixth place. He won the Newbury Spring Cup next time out and had a crack at most of the big mile handicaps after that. He was badly drawn on his final start and now races off a 6lbs higher mark than last season.

Before rushing in on him, it is worth noting that he is also entered in the Irish Lincoln and is a possible for the Doncaster Mile. Just to confuse matters further, stable companion Gabrial also holds an entry her. He would be a blot on the handicap on his best form but he has been tried in everything except the boat race in recent seasons. He showed that he still retains his ability when winning at Leicester in October but he is still 11lbs lower than his previous best.

Mindurownbusiness and Belgian Bill are others worthy of note. The former did this column a favour when winning at Wolverhampton recently in the trial race and gets in here on a 2lbs lower mark. Belgian Bill has been running with great credit in Dubai but neither is proven on soft ground. Zarwaan gets a tentative vote at this stage.

Zarwaan @12-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Ascot Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If the forecasts of doom prove correct, the runners at Ascot on Saturday will be strung out like three-mile chasers. The going was officially described as heavy by midweek and more rain is forecast across the UK.

After Friday’s supposed “Future Champions’ Day” at Newmarket where a sharp pin would have had more chance of yielding a profit than a form book, can we expect more of the same on Saturday? There is certainly something wrong with the race planning in trying to promote these racecards as the cream of racing when they are invariably run on soft ground. The decision to move the Champion Stakes from Newmarket was a bad one and the attempt to build a supporting card around it is looking very dubious.

We have previewed the big race separately and expect Cirrus des Aigles to fly the flag for France with Noble Mission most likely to follow him home. If the feature race is struggling to live up to its title, the QE II does at least provide an interesting clash between 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder and his Longchamp conqueror Charm Spirit. It is a measure of the strength of Richard Hannon’s mile division that he has been forced to take out Toronado and Olympic Glory but still saddles the favourite.

Charm Spirit got first run on Night Of Thunder last time but looks the sort to keep pulling out more. I wouldn’t be confident of Hannon’s colt gaining his revenge and will side with Olivier Peslier’s mount. The Fillies & Mares provides Albasharah with the chance to follow up her Newmarket win from last weekend. She has an extra two furlongs to travel here and it may just pay to side with Silk Sari who has bottomless stamina.

The sprint race looks like a good opportunity for G Force to land yet another major prize for David O’Meara. He was unlucky in the Nunthorpe and gained handsome compensation in the Haydock Sprint Trophy. Soft ground should not be a worry and he may have most to fear from Viztoria who was third here last year.

In the opening stayers race I am going to take a chance on Pallasator, if only because he is built like a chaser and should handle the ground. In the closing Balmoral Handicap I have gone through the form and Gabrial’s Kaka looks a cracking bet at a big price. He won the Spring Mile at Newbury and was also a good third at Sandown. He now finds himself more than a stone better off with Velox. He was badly hampered in the Cambridgeshire and the form could easily be turned on its head. It wouldn’t be the first time this week!

Pallasator 1.45 @8-1 Paddy Power

G Force 2.20 @9-2 888Sport

Silk Sari 2.55 @5-1 Bet Victor

Charm Spirit 3.30 @7-2 Skybet

Cirrus des Aigles 4.05 @13-8 Coral

Gabrial’s Kaka 4.45 @33-1 Coral