Tag: Godolphin

Ihtimal value at 16-1 for 1000 Guineas

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Early February may seem an odd time to be talking about the first classics of the new turf season but Ihtimal has already laid down her marker for the 1000 Guineas. The Godolphin filly was a smart two-year-old who improved with every race and she has clearly trained on.

On Thursday, she reappeared in the UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan and produced a devastating turn of foot to leave her rivals floundering. Her victims included a couple of decent four-year-olds and the smart Wedding Ring, also in the blue of Godolphin.

I first started following Ihtimal after she finished fourth to Berkshire at Royal Ascot in the summer. As soon as she stepped up to seven furlongs she began to fulfil her potential, winning the Sweet Solera at Newmarket and then following up in brilliant fashion at Doncaster in the May Hill. That race is nearly always a good guide to the classics and she certainly looked the part that day.

She was beaten on her final start of the season but I’m convinced that it was down to over-confidence on the part of her rider. Silvestre De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics a little and she quickened without ever getting to grips with Chriselliam or Rizeena. That was the best fillies’ race of the season in my book and I’m surprised to see the likes of Miss France, Lucky Kristale and Tapestry ahead of Ihtimal in the betting.

Tragically, Chriselliam has had to put down this week following a foot infection. She put up a brilliant performance to win the Breeders Cup in scintillating style and would have been a leading contender at Newmarket. I would imagine Clive Brittain go straight to the Guineas with Rizeena unless he decides to run in the Nell Gwynn but Ihtimal has the UAE Oaks next on her agenda.

Godolphin’s trial winners do not always go on to run well in the Guineas but it is telling that Saeed bin Suroor has already described Ihtimal as the best of his fillies. Coral are still offering a very tempting 16-1 about her for the 1000 Guineas. She could well stay the Oaks trip as well and I don’t think the 20-1 will last long if she puts in a similar display next time.

1000 Guineas Ihtimal at 16-1 Coral, Boylesports

Oaks Ihtimal 20-1 Bet365, Totesport

UAE 1000 Guineas Preview

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A couple of weeks ago we enjoyed a welcome distraction in Dubai with Wedding Ring winning impressively for Charlie Appleby. The filly earned a quote of 25-1 for the Newmarket Guineas but she may not be the best of the Godolphin team.

Last season I was a big fan of Ihtimal and she returns to action tomorrow in the UAE 1000 Guineas and a clash with Wedding Ring. The two met at Newmarket in July with the latter coming out on top by a quarter of a length but it was Ihtimal that went on to Group 2 success.

She is a daughter of Shamardal out of a Dubai Destination mare and went on to finish third to Berkshire at Royal Ascot before losing her maiden tag in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes. That was her first run at seven furlongs and she was even more impressive in taking the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster in September.

Silvestre De Sousa held her up before swooping late and quickly putting two lengths between herself and Majeyda.  She was given one more run in the Fillies Mile back at Newmarket later that month but De Sousa may have overdone the waiting tactics. He was up against some smart fillies and gave Ihtimal a lot do, running on strongly to finish three lengths behind Chriselliam and Rizeena. Chriselliam went on to win at the Breeders’ Cup and that is the best form among the fillies last year.

On official figures, Ihtimal has around 8lbs in hand of Wedding Ring and it would be no surprise to see them finish 1, 2. Mick De Kock saddles three in the race with Christophe Soumillon preferring Mensoora. The daughter of Jet Master was disappointing behind Certify last week and will need to step up considerably to trouble the Godolphin pair.

Illuminating Dream is an interesting runner for David Brown in the colours of Qatar Racing. She won well at Beverley in August but was beaten by Bremner at Ayr on her final start. She is by High Chaparral so is bred to get a trip and the same could be said of Feedyah, a game winner over a mile at Ascot on her final start at two years.

Oxsana has finished behind Wedding Ring on all three occasions that the pair have met. Her best effort was when getting to within a quarter of a length over six furlongs at Newmarket. She is well held on her last run at Meydan.

Ihtimal 15-8 Bet365

Meydan Thursday Preview

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The Guineas meeting at Newmarket may seem a long way off to those of us sheltering in storm-lashed Britain but Sheikh Mohammed and Godolphin are already sifting through their classic contenders. The meeting at Meydan stages trials for both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas and there are plenty of familiar names on show tomorrow.

Wedding Ring was as genuine a two-year-old as you could wish to see last season, ending her season by picking up two valuable sales races at Newmarket. I am not a fan of those races but Sheikh Mohammed won’t have been complaining as Wedding Ring picked up a cool £400,000 for her efforts.

She raced six times, beating Ihtimal on her debut before finishing fifth at Royal Ascot. Ihtimal went on to prove the better filly and is on my short list for classic success in 2014 but Wedding Ring improved as the season went on. She only held Oxsana by a neck over six furlongs but extended that to almost two and a half lengths over seven.

Autumn Lily was a bit unpredictable with three wins and two duck eggs in her first season. She is undoubtedly useful and it is interesting that she is rated 3lbs higher than Wedding Ring. I’ll side with the latter and hope that she continues where she left off at Newmarket.

Emirates Flyer is the form horse in the 2000 Guineas trial but this is an altogether tougher assignment with 18 runners. The son of Acclamation showed that he is not fazed by big fields when just failing in the Redcar two-year-old trophy on his final start. He had previously chased home 2000 Guineas ante-post favourite Kingman at Sandown. He did look a little outclassed that day but time may show that to be no disgrace.

There are lots of unknown quantities here including the two trained by South African Mick de Kock. Safety Check was also useful as a two-year-old whilst Figure Of Speech lost his form after some early promise. I haven’t given up on Nezar who can be forgiven his closing effort at Newmarket but may want further than this seven furlongs now.

Cambridgeshire runner-up Code Of Honor has joined the ranks of Godolphin after a promising season with Henry Candy. He ran a blinder when just failing in the Cambridgeshire and looks capable of stepping up into Listed class this year. This looks an ideal starting point and Kieren Fallon will be doing the pushing and shoving.

Wedding Ring @5-2 Bet365

Emirates Flyer @4-1 Bet365

Code Of Honor @9-2 Bet365

Kempton Wednesday Preview

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The weather has been having a big impact on fields this week with reams of non-runners due to the change in the going. This has re-opened the debate on 48 hour declarations but I am of the belief that it is a seasonal problem.

Many trainers are desperate to get a run into their horses before the end of the turf season but are not prepared to risk two-year-olds on very soft ground. The late defections are simply the price we have to pay for having the information to hand 48 hours in advance. I certainly wouldn’t want to go back to the 24 hour declaration system which greatly reduces the time for studying the form. Bookmakers would probably revert to pricing the races up on the morning of the race and I’m sure this would not be helpful as far as the online betting revenue is concerned.

For Wednesday’s selection I’m heading to Kempton and the all-weather. Godolphin’s Murasil really caught my eye when running a fine race on his debut to finish second to the useful Diamond Mine. The chestnut is a gelding by Elusive Quality and started at 8-1 that day under Mickael Barzalona. He was slowly away that day but travelled comfortably throughout and cut through the field turning into the straight.

He looked sure to win until Kieren Fallon galvanised Diamond Mine and snatched the spoils by a head on the line. Murasil lost nothing in defeat and will be even better with that experience under his belt. Godolphin also run Aalim who was behind that day and the disappointing Saddaqa who has surely had enough chances with four seconds.

A bigger danger is likely to be James Fanshawe’s Okavango (not to be confused with Ocovango who ran in the Derby and Arc this year). This Nayef filly was second to Fersah at Leicester in May but has not been seen since. If she is fit after 142 days off the track, she could give Murasil something to think about.

Sharareh showed something at Windsor earlier in the season and could reach the frame but it will be disappointing if Murasil cannot take this on the way to better things.

Murasil (Kempton 8.40)

Doncaster Day 3 Preview

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So far so good at Doncaster this week with The Lark (15-8) confirming herself to be a top class filly in the Park Hill. The girls have been kind to us this week with Lightning Thunder (5-2) giving us a great start on Wednesday and we are sticking with the fairer sex for Friday’s card.

The filly I like in the May Hill Stakes is Godolphin’s Ihtimal. “Progressive” is possibly over-used when referring to two-year-olds but there is no doubt that this filly has got better with every race. She started off at Goodwood and had the misfortune to come up against none other than Kiyoshi. She actually gave her a run for her money and it was no disgrace to finish only a length and a half down on the subsequent Royal Ascot winner.

She was made favourite for her next outing at Newmarket but was run out of it by stable companion Wedding Ring, eventually going down by a neck. She was then upped in class and distance at Royal Ascot and took on the boys in the Chesham Stakes over seven furlongs. In finishing third to Berkshire, she split some decent colts in Bunker and Somewhat, both of whom have gone on to subsequent victories.

Ihtimal’s most recent performance was her best, storming clear to win the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. Interestingly she had Wedding Ring over three lengths behind in third and she was drawing away at the finish. The mile should prove no problem to the daughter of Sharmardal and I won’t be opposing her until she is beaten.

Godolphin also run Majeyda who was undone by the draw on her second start at Newmarket before bouncing back with a win at Sandown. She readily held a useful filly in Qawaasem by a neck and that form looks solid. I’m confident that Ihtimal will prove the best of the Godolphin duo but I am slightly wary of Richard Hannon’s Lustrous who won nicely at Salisbury on her debut. There is no telling how good she might be but this looks a tough assignment on only her second start.

Eleven horses have been declared for the St Leger on Saturday but I was a bit miffed to find that Feel Like Dancing was not among them. I’d tipped him at 40-1 a couple of weeks ago and earlier this week connections were said to be pleased by the ease in the ground and expecting a big run with William Buick in the saddle. Our hopes now rest on our 7-1 about Excess Knowledge. In the meantime, let’s hope that Ihtimal can provide us with a profit for the third consecutive day of the Leger meeting.

Ihtimal 7-4 Ladbrokes

Sandown 5th July Preview

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The Eclipse card is fast approaching but there is a decent appetiser on Friday with some good quality racing. Prior to Royal Ascot I had not taken much notice of the two-year-olds but some fine performances by Rizeena and War Command have re-ignited my interest and there is an intriguing little race at the Esher course tomorrow.

Royal Ascot form cannot always be taken at face value but the Queen Mary is starting to look particularly hot. Fig Roll (4th) and Ventura Mist (8th) came out and filled the first two places in a decent race at Newmarket whilst Bye Bye Birdie (12th) picked up a good contest in Ireland.

That suggests that William Haggas has every chance with Survived who battled on well to be a close sixth. I prefer her to the colt, Mick Channon’s Ambiance. He was fourth to No Nay Never but Coach House hasn’t done much for the form since and I just feel that may have been a weaker race.

However, I feel that Tom Dascombe’s eight-length Chester winner Fine ‘n Dandy could beat them both. He had his field beaten at half-way on the Roodeye and his trainer things highly enough of him to enter him for the Nunthorpe. He looks generously priced at 9-2.

The Listed Ambant Gala Stakes has attracted a really good field and I’m hoping that there will be just enough give in the ground for Mandour to take this. He is clearly still improving judged by his latest effort when a closing third to Maxios in a Group 1.

Afsare’s antics have been well documented and he has been singled out by Mr Fallon as the reason behind his recent sacking from riding for the owner. James Doyle may no longer be on the magic carpet that swept him to a treble at the Royal meeting but it will be fascinating to see if he can galvanise this talented gelding.

Van Der Neer is an interesting rival having run a fine race at the Royal meeting behind Remote. He had run well in the Guineas before flopping in Ireland but this looks more his trip and he rates as the main danger.

Al Saham completes my treble for the meeting in a tricky little handicap. He had been entered for the Old Newton Cup but Godolphin send him here instead. He looked a big long-striding sort when he won at Haydock, overcoming interference in the process. Hopefully Silvestre De Sousa can get him out in plenty of time to gallop his rivals into the ground.

Sandown Friday
2.50 Fine ‘n Dandy 9-2 Coral
4.00 Mandour 5-2 Coral
4.35 Al Saham 4-1 William Hill