Tag: godsmejudge

BetBright Chase Preview

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The BetBright Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) is the highlight of Saturday’s Kempton card. The race has certainly lost much of its significance as a Cheltenham/Aintree trial in recent seasons with Rough Quest (1996) the last winner to go on to big race success.

Back in the 1980’s and early 90’s the roll of honour includes Combs Ditch, Rhyme ‘N’ Reason, Bonanza Boy and Desert Orchid. I don’t think we will see anything of that calibre this weekend but there are a number of horses on the comeback trail for Aintree.

Rocky Creek finished fifth in last year’s Grand National and has been aimed at Aintree again this season. He made a pleasing start when second in Ireland but pulled up in the Hennessy at Newbury. Godsmejudge won the Scottish National in 2013 and ran a fine race last year when finishing runner-up to Al Co. That race will almost certainly be on his agenda again this spring but he is also coming off the back of a disappointing run at Doncaster.

Nicky Henderson has entered Rajdhani Express for the National but I suspect more in hope than expectation. He has yet to win over three miles and is being tried in a hood for the first time on Saturday. Staying the three miles is also a concern for Emma Lavelle’s Fox Appeal, although he has done so over hurdles.

Paul Nicholls also saddles Easter Day and this one has a lot more going for it than Rocky Creek. He was smart enough to beat RSA Chase winner O’Faolains Boy as a novice and was having only his second race back from injury when falling at Cheltenham last time out. He was still going well just behind the leaders and it was an unlucky fall at the tricky third last fence. He should go well for Nick Scholfield and looks fairly treated with 10st 13lb on his back.

My other fancy for the race is Le Reve who beat Theatrical Star by five lengths over this trip at Sandown last month. That was his third win at the Esher course but he did win at Kempton over hurdles and there are similarities. The handicapper has put him up 7lbs but jockey Leighton Aspell was able to take a pull with three to jump and he looks good each-way value at around 10-1.

Le Reve 3.45 Kempton Saturday @10-1 Paddy Power

Easter Day 3.45 Kempton Saturday @5-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Bet365 Gold Cup Preview

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Without wishing to sound like an old fuddy-duddy, the Bet365 Gold Cup still needs translating to the Whitbread Gold Cup to understand its significance. Sponsors come and go but certain races like the Hennessy have a fixed place in the National Hunt calendar and the Whitbread is the traditional end-of-season staying chase.

It’s been a while since it has captured the imagination like it used to with the likes of Diamond Edge, Special Cargo and Mr Frisk, but it can still produce a thrilling climax to the National Hunt season. We are now paying for the fine bank holiday with a return to miserably wet weather and the going is currently good to soft at the Esher track. It shouldn’t change too drastically so there won’t be any excuses on account of the ground.

Godsmejudge missed his appointment at Aintree this season after a couple of disappointing displays but bounced right back to his best in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr. He couldn’t quite provide us with a winner there but ran right to the line to finish second and must have sound claims tomorrow. Wayne Hutchinson is back on board and my only reservation is that the race is quite soon after his last effort.

Bury Parade is worthy of consideration but he has been raised again by the handicapper for a defeat last time. He ran on strongly to finish second and hasn’t shown any signs of his refusal to race earlier in the season. I’m just going to pass him over on account of his big weight.

Many of the others are on a retrieval mission after failing at Aintree or Cheltenham including Burton Port and Hadrian’s Approach. Burton Port was backed for the Grand National but got no further than the second fence. It is interesting to see AP McCoy back on him here but I’m not convinced that his second in the veterans’ chase showed him to be back to his best.

Spring Heeled foiled our selection, Cause Of Causes, at the festival and has a 9lbs penalty for that victory. I’m not sure that it will be soft enough for Rigadin De Beauchene but it may be worth having a saver on Same Difference. He was second here a year ago, although that did follow a win at Cheltenham. He has been a long way short of his best this season but his fifth last time suggested he could be on the way back.

Godsmejudge at 12-1 BetVictor

Same Difference at 10-1 Bet365

Scottish National Preview

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The Scottish National is always a tricky race to call. It comes so soon after the Aintree Grand National that it is rare for a horse from that event to be able to perform at its best. It also leaves us in the dark as far as running plans are concerned but it seems as though Paul Nicholls intends to run top weight Tidal Bay.

He was unlucky to exit the National last week but went on to make his presence felt when steering Across The Bay out of the race. Nicholls reasons that he has not had a hard race but he still has to concede a lot of weight. Perhaps more significantly, he keeps the weights compressed for everything else in the race including stable companion Sam Winner.

Sam Winner suffered a very severe injury a couple of seasons ago and looked unlikely to race again. It is to his credit that he has come back well enough to rank highly in the novice chase division this season. I gave him an each-way chance in the RSA Chase and he travelled well for a long way before weakening. Back in handicap company, he could be interesting. The RSA Chase form was not covered in glory at Aintree last week but I blame the different track for O’Faolains Boy’s poor effort and expect to see him back to his best next season.

One horse that did not make the Aintree line up was Alan King’s Godsmejudge. The trainer felt that he was just not quite ready for it and he has decided to come back here to attempt to repeat last year’s victory. In terms of the handicap, he is only 6lbs higher than when winning so impressively last season. It is difficult to be too confident about a horse that has not managed to complete in his last two races but there were mitigating circumstances.

The stable were well below par when he pulled up at Sandown and perhaps he just took a long time to get over the virus. We will soon know our fate as he usually travels quite nicely in his races and struck for home a long way out last year. He is certainly worth an each-way interest at 20-1 for a course and distance winner.

The race could be turned on its head if Tidal Bay comes out so we will watch the final declarations with interest.

Sam Winner at 11-1 Sportingbet

Godsmejudge at 20-1 Bet365

Grand National ante-post update

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The Grand National may seem a long way off with the excitement still building towards the Cheltenham festival but the entries were announced today. 115 horses have been entered for the £1million race including Tidal Bay and Long Run as expected.

This is good news for our earlier selections Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude as it means they will get in with 11st or less to carry. There are no real surprises in the list other than perhaps the number of older horses that are still being entered. One who won’t be there is last year’s 66-1 winner Aurora’s Encore after he suffered a nasty injury last weekend.

He’s been operated on for a fracture to his off-fore and all racing fans will be hoping that he makes a good recovery and gets the retirement that he deserves. I was a little surprised that he was kept in training this year. Neptune Collonges was promptly retired after his gallant success and it would have been nice to see Aurora’s Encore given the same courtesy.

Triolo D’Alene

Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene was installed as favourite after winning the Hennessy in November but hasn’t reappeared since. He was due to run at Ascot and Cheltenham but Henderson decided not to risk him on the heavy ground. He was not that happy with the 11lbs rise in the handicap after Newbury but he seems to be making sure that it doesn’t go any higher. I’d be surprised if we see him before the weights come out on February 11th.

The Hennessy form was not exactly franked by Rocky Creek’s defeat last weekend but I don’t believe  he was at his best. Paul Nicholls believes that a setback after Newbury took the edge off him and  he probably just blew up in the closing stages.

Monbeg Dude

At the start of the season I thought that Monbeg Dude would need heavy ground to win a National and that he may be on the small side for the big fences. I changed my mind after his impressive win at Cheltenham last time out where he jumped well and won a shade cosily on good to soft ground. He is still available at 25-1 in places and that seems a fair price for a Welsh National winner.

Godsmejudge

I’d like to put up Godsmejudge as my third early fancy for the race at 33-1 with Coral. He was pulled up last time at Sandown but the stable has been laid low with a virus and it seems safe to ignore that run. He had previously run very well at Cheltenham and he could provide Alan King with his first National success.

He really attacked his fences at Ayr when winning the Scottish National and he looks a proper Aintree sort if King can get him there in one piece.

*ante-post Triolo D’Alene 20-1

*ante-post Monbeg Dude 25-1

Godsmejudge at 33-1 Coral

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

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Balthazar King (2-1) kept our noses in front on Friday with a game display in the cross country race at Cheltenham. I was a bit concerned after an early mistake but he’s as tough as old boots and just refused to be beaten.

Our ambitious ante-post wagers on the Paddy Power Gold Cup still stand with Kumbeshwar (40-1) and Astracad (33-1) hoping to sneak some place money in a wide open race. The more I look at this race, the more confused I become! Confidence seems to have evaporated in Johns Spirit who is back out to 8-1 and I’m just wondering if he’s up to this class.

With so many good horses available at big odds, I’m going to add Battle Group to my team of long shots at a very generous 25-1 with Stan James. He has a reputation as a bit of a rogue but you cannot argue with back-to-back wins at Aintree and a win in a valuable race at Haydock. He was heavily backed in all three races and I can see him running a lot better than his odds suggest tomorrow.

Scottish National winner Godsmejudge makes his return to action on the same card and looks fair value at 15-2. Wayne Hutchinson rides him superbly and trainer Alan King reports the horse to be in fine form at home.

African Gold did well to win over hurdles, let alone chase home At Fishers Cross at the festival meeting. He’s a big strapping sort with a future over fences and he makes his chasing bow tomorrow in the 1.15. He has a certain AP McCoy to beat on Shutthefrontdoor but I can see African Gold making up into an RSA Chase candidate this season.

Timesremembered looked an above average hurdler when winning at Chepstow last time out and he can extend his winning sequence to three in the 3.35 race. This is a much tougher race but I think that he will start shorter than 11-4.

African Gold 2-1 BetVictor, Sportingbet

Godsmejudge 15-2 Stan James

Battle Group (each-way) 25-1 Stan James

Timesremembered 11-4  Stan James