Are Golden State and Cleveland Headed for third Championship Battle?

The Golden State Warriors just beat Houston to extend their winning run to 10 games and they are now all but guaranteed the top seed berth in the Western Conference. A couple of weeks ago the Warriors were in real danger following Kevin Durrant’s injury sparked a bad slump in form. They have bounced back in style and are now 4/5 favourites with Betway to win the NBA Championship.

There are just six or seven games to go before the end of the regular season now, and the playoff picture is becoming a lot clearer, with several teams having already punched their postseason tickets. Yet a few teams’ chances of making the playoffs are teetering on a knife edge, so there are lots of big games still to bet on.

Futures Update

There are no longer any lines on the division winners as they have been pretty much sewn up by Golden State, San Antonio, Utah, Cleveland, Boston and Washington. Futures betting now hinges on who will win each conference and the Championship. In the west, Golden State has hit form at just the right time. When Durrant returns they will be even stronger and look destined for a third consecutive Finals appearance, despite the threat of San Antonio and Houston. Paddy Power has 4/9 on Golden State. Whether it will meet Cleveland for a third year running is another matter entirely.

The Cavs have led the way in the east for most of the season, but have ceded the lead to the Celtics in the past week. If Boston can hold on and claim the top seed spot, they can really be a threat in the playoffs and look a good option in the east at 6/1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes, while Washington is an interesting outsider at 10/1 with Bet Victor.

There is also the small matter of who will be named regular season MVP. James Harden is leading the way but it is still very close between him and Russell Westbrook, who have been the best two offensive players in the league by some distance this season. One thing worth noting is that while most bookmakers will only go to 1/2 on Harden, William Hill is offering 4/5, so that is a generous set of odds as he is expected to just about pip Westbrook to the honour, as his Rockets have been better than Westbrook’s Thunder this season and he has been breaking all sorts of records.

Upcoming Games

In the east three teams – the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers – have an identical record but only two can go to the playoffs. Their games should prove interesting in the week ahead. Chicago is on a three-game winning streak and should beat the Knicks ( who are 3-7 in their last 10) on Wednesday and cover a reasonable spread, but the Pacers are likely to lose to the Raptors. On Thursday, Miami faces a tough game against the Hornets and Charlotte looks a good bet.

NBA Update: Golden State Warriors in Imperious Form

We are now a quarter of the way through the NBA regular season and the Golden State Warriors’ imperious form has left them heavy favourites in NBA betting markets to regain the Championship title they won in 2015. They have by far and away the best record in the league and are already odds-on to make up for the heartbreak of losing the NBA Finals to the Cavaliers back in June.

Western Conference

The Warriors, led by the most fearsome attacking triumvirate in basketball, have stormed to the top of their division and built up a considerable lead over the impressive LA Clippers, despite having played fewer games. Devin Durrant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are on fire this year, and that is more than making up for a defence that has tailed off slightly after losing Andrew Bogut. At Sun Bets, which offers some of the most competitive NBA prices, they are just 1/25 to win the Pacific Division, with the Clippers out at 8/1. The Warriors are also ahead in the race to win the Western Conference, but the San Antonio Spurs look like giving them a good run for their money. The Spurs are just 1/50 with Sun Bets to win their division and are 5/1 second-favourites for the Western Conference. But the Warriors look all conquering at present and look good for the 4/11 on them winning the Western Conference.

Eastern Conference

Things are a bit more open in the Eastern Conference after a losing streak for leaders the Cavaliers. Last season’s champions are 1/20 to win the Central Division and the bookmakers expect them to win the Eastern Conference, where they too are 4/11 with Sun Bets, thanks largely to the influence of LeBron James. But the Toronto Raptors have embarked on a sensational winning run and look a good outside bet at 10/1 to win it, while the odds of them winning their division – 13/20 with Sun Bets – look fantastic.

Outright

Right now the Warriors are looking untouchable thanks to their superb offence. You can never count the Cavaliers out thanks to James, but the 3/4 Sun Bets has on the Warriors looks the best option right now. If you are looking for more value, the Raptors are an interesting option at 28/1. Their offence is the second highest rated in the league, as is their field goal percentage, and they could well go all the way. The Utah Jazz has maintained a strong record despite injuries to key players Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward and George Hill, and could be a threat at 66/1 once they get their starters back.

Upcoming games

A mouth-watering clash between divisional rivals the Warriors and Clippers takes place on Thursday. The Warriors have won both times when these two have met this season and should make it three on the bounce, but it should prove a tight game after the last meeting was only decided by a four-point margin. Back the Warriors outright but be wary of the spread. On the same day, the Cavs and the New York Knicks face one another. The Knicks have been average this season but have enjoyed a recent upsurge in form, while the Cavs have struggled. But this could be the perfect game for the Cavs to get their season back on track after they destroyed the Knicks 117-88 in the season opener. They should beat them with ease and cover a high spread.

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: A Final Look at the Western Conference NBA Championship Race

The NBA Playoffs are upon us and we present a final analysis of Western contenders and pretenders. Who will you bank on to win?

April 10, 2015

 

One of the most unpredictable NBA regular seasons on record is about to conclude with an unprecedented number of real contenders, all with a genuine chance of NBA glory.

This never happens in the NBA, where the annual champion almost always comes from an elite class of two, maybe three teams. This year, there is no such elite class and instead, we have at least eight contenders that we have to take seriously.

For those looking to lay a bet, this is a huge opportunity. Your best payouts come from teams ranked at the 4-10 range, only those teams almost never win. This season, those teams have as good a chance as they have ever had in the history of NBA basketball.

Today, in our final look at NBA Futures betting for the NBA Championship, we take a look at this year’s Western Conference contenders.

 

The Golden State Warriors:

They were the undisputed best team this regular season and by a distance. They burst out the gates by winning 22 of their first 25 games and somehow, they never let up that pace. The Golden State Warriors will finish the regular season with a franchise record for wins and will also have submitted one of the ten best individual seasons in NBA history.

They have it all. A historically deadly shooting backcourt with a pair of All-Stars that play imperious, beautiful basketball. A team-first identity where no player, not even MVP-to-be Stephen Curry, is bigger than the team. They have a ludicrously dominant +10 average point differential (their average margin of victory), more than twice as large as the next team.

And they are about to finish their second straight season as the NBA’s top defense, which, strangely, people seem not to want to acknowledge about these Warriors.

So, after submitting a historic NBA season, why are we not stating outright that these Warriors will win it all? Teams that play this well over the course of two-plus seasons usually skate into the NBA Finals and are often favoured heavily by bookies. But the odds favourite is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have won 13 less games in a far weaker conference. What gives?

As good as these Warriors are, we are reluctant to afford them quite the same elite status as other teams who have been as dominant as they have been this season. There are two reasons for this: first, this NBA season is a freak show of depth, especially in the brutal West. Golden State is really, really good, but when the #7 and #8 seed is potentially a real contender (this never happens), then their path to the Finals could also be historically difficult.

The second reason is mental toughness. Golden State are known for being a highly cerebral, soft-spoken and classy team, quietly confident in their qualities. So, what happens when opponents push their buttons or adopt a highly physical approach in the Playoffs? With the exception of Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut, the rest of these Warriors are perceived as a little “soft.” Can they take the mental anguish of championship basketball?

Playoff basketball exposes little flaws in profound ways. Now, this is not to say the Warriors are soft and they’ll be exposed in the postseason. After all, it’s not their first playoff rodeo, and they have some experience at the top level.

Rather, it means we don’t know how tough they can become. This is the first time in the history of the Golden State Warriors that they are the NBA’s top dog. This is the first time Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have ever carried a massive target on their backs.

Simply stated, we don’t know their ceiling for mental toughness quite yet. That’s the only thing that makes me pause before laying a bet on these Warriors winning it all.

Odds Picture: At 3-1 odds, they rank second right behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. At first glance, this looks like a travesty as the Warriors have been a far more consistent and dominant team. But then, we picture Cleveland’s pleasant stroll through the terrible Eastern Conference and there is no doubt they’ll be in the Finals. With the Warriors, every single team they meet in the playoffs will be a contender, and that’s a bloodbath in the making.

Final Verdict: Look, teams with a +10 point differential almost always win the title, so laying a bet on the Warriors is as good as betting on anybody. They have the MVP-to-be in Steph Curry, a great defense and unbelievable shooting and flexibility.

We just have to decide how mentally tough the Warriors CAN BECOME. It’s their last obstacle. If they can grow into the role and responsibility of being the league’s best team, the Warriors will be champions. If they stray, show growing pains, or fail to elevate their mental toughness when tested, then they’ll be back next year for another shot.

 

The San Antonio Spurs:

Our defending champions. These old war dogs have been doing it at the top level for so long. Tim Duncan won his first championship in his second year in the league, way back in 1999 with Gregg Popovich as his coach.

Last June, the Spurs destroyed the favoured Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. It was the fifth championship for Duncan and Popovich in the last 14 seasons. That is without question, an NBA dynasty.

And yet, not once in all that time have the San Antonio Spurs managed to defend their title. They have never won two championships back-to-back.

Normally, this wouldn’t be much of a criticism. But when we compare and examine all the other historically great champions of the past thirty years, we find that they all have one thing the Spurs do not have: consecutive championships.

Let’s take a look at all the repeat champions dating back to 1987:

LA Lakers: champions in ’87, ‘88

Detroit Pistons: champions in ’89, ‘90

Chicago Bulls: champions in ’91, ’92, ‘93

Houston Rockets: champions in ’94, ‘95

Chicago Bulls: champions in ’96, ’97, ‘98

LA Lakers: champions in ’00, ’01, ‘02

LA Lakers: champions in ’09, ‘10

Miami Heat: champions in ’12, ‘13

That is a whopping number of great teams who won consecutive titles. In fact, the Spurs are the only team in the last 30 years that have won more than one NBA championship without ever having successfully defended their title.

They say that the only thing harder than winning an NBA championship is keeping it. As great and as consistently excellent the Spurs have been in the last 15 years, they never managed to win two in a row, despite the tremendous number of repeat champions we’ve seen in the modern NBA era.

Odds Picture: True to form, the Spurs start slow and play better and better as the playoffs approach. This is reflected in their 4-1 odds (it was 7-1 last week), which is a decent bet but not exactly a juicy prospect, given their historical aversion to defending their titles.

Final Verdict: They’re one year older and for the Spurs, that means they’re EVEN older now. Father time is undefeated and the Spurs will be no different, but at least they gave the old goat all he could handle. However, if they couldn’t repeat when Tim Duncan was in his prime despite having four chances to do so, how are they supposed to do that now?

But make no mistake: they’ve done nothing but prove doubters wrong for a long time, and no other team has half the playoff experience that they have. History is against them repeating, but you dismiss the San Antonio Spurs at your own peril.

 

The Memphis Grizzlies:

We just don’t know quite what to expect from the Grizzlies in this upcoming postseason. They are the NBA’s last link to a past age of NBA basketball that relies on traditional size and slow-down, methodical post up play. Teams simply do not play basketball like the Grizzlies do, employing two traditional big men in an age where many teams trot out three guards and no centers in their daily lineups.

The game has changed, but somehow the Grizzlies just submitted their finest season in franchise history despite playing a brand of basketball that is close to becoming extinct.

The Grizzlies are a complete package and they fear no one. Their greatest vulnerability is not being able to defend smaller, mobile lineups. But on the flip side, who exactly is going to defend Memphis’s beastly big man duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol?

It’s a delicate balancing act for the Grizzlies. Their style goes against the established grain of modern basketball, which means mismatches are going to be the story in their playoff run. Everything depends on whether they get the better deal in those mismatches.

Odds Picture: At around 15-1 odds, Memphis is a properly good punt with a very decent potential payout. They are far from the favourites, but they are absolutely a leading contender in the West and built for postseason play.

Final Verdict: We like the Grizzlies precisely because of their old fashioned ways, and for good reason: playoff basketball is about a slower pace. It’s about executing in the half court, and making the best of your advantages as teams lock down on the defensive end. That’s when having two All-Star big men who both demand a double team really begins to show its worth. The Grizzlies are going to be difficult to beat in the playoffs.

 

The Houston Rockets:

Yes, they are a real contender. But nope, they’re not winning the NBA Championship and that is taking into account the unbelievable season superstar James Harden has had. If it wasn’t for Stephen Curry, Harden would certainly be this year’s MVP. No other star player has done more with less around him.

That’s well and good for the regular season, but we cannot expect James Harden to carry his team through the postseason in the same manner. It doesn’t work that way in the playoffs. James Harden is going to need all the help he can get.

Which brings us to Dwight Howard, one of the more overrated big men in the NBA now that his legs have deserted him. His numbers have dipped at a dramatic level season after season, and he is miles away from being the athletic freak and one-man defense that he was in 2011.

Dominant Dwight Howard is dead and gone. What’s left is a shadow of his former self, and that’s a problem because no player has blindly relied on his athleticism alone like Howard has. When his legs left him, all of his fundamental flaws and lack of offensive game became even more glaring.

Dwight Howard never bothered to learn how to play the game without solely relying on his world-class athleticism. Now that he is old (and looks it), it leaves us with the current version of Dwight Howard: merely a good NBA center, no more, no less.

The Houston Rockets are not winning the NBA Championship with half of Dwight Howard. Harden is a great, great player, but he can’t win an NBA title on his own.

Odds Picture: The Rockets sit at around 16-1 odds and they are only getting juicier by the minute. You can find 24-1 odds for a Rockets championship at several sportsbooks, which is nothing more than bait from handicappers. Other bets have a better chance than Houston.

Final Verdict: Save your money for one of the other Western Conference dark horses because the Rockets are not winning anything this year.

 

The LA Clippers:

By far the most hated team in the league, the Clippers are nonetheless, a fine squad and a dark horse contender. They whine, they act entitled, they seem too cool for school on certain days and their desire can be questioned. But they have a good team, a championship coach, and they have Chris Paul.

In Paul, the Clippers arguably have the NBA’s best pure point guard and a fearless superstar in his own right. However, Paul is also known as a shouter, a relentless taskmaster that demands perfection from his team. He’s old school in this respect, and had Paul played 30 years ago in a tougher era of NBA basketball, he would have received a far more favourable response from his teammates back then.

In today’s NBA, star players like Blake Griffin resent Paul’s tough approach instead of using it to fuel a personal excellence. Blake Griffin has always had an uneasy relationship to Paul, and his numbers rise and dip inconsistently from season to season. Griffin is good, but he absolutely lacks mental toughness and a true desire to win. This is reflected in his wavering statistics and his rapidly declining rebound numbers, a statistic that reflects desire more than any other.

Their center, Deandre Jordan, is a fearsome rebounder and shot blocker. However, he has ZERO offensive game and is one of the worst free throw shooters in the history of professional basketball. This means he will not be on the floor in key late possessions in the playoffs for fear of being fouled and forced to shoot free throws. With Deandre Jordan, there ain’t nothing free about them.

Combine this with Griffin’s Jekyll and Hyde approach to basketball and we see that there is not much about the Clippers that you can consistently count on. If they play at peak form for three weeks, they have as good a chance as any to make the Finals.

If they are their usual inconsistent selves? They could just as easily be out in round one. Watch the finger pointing begin then.

Odds Picture: At 15-1 odds, the Clippers are worth a bet simply because they are really good when everything is running smoothly. They are a real dark horse, and their odds reflect that fairly.

Final Verdict: The unpredictability of the Clippers is part of their charm. It also means that if they get on the same page and play for each other, they have a real chance to win. Coach Doc Rivers is known for uniting a team and getting them ready for the playoffs, so we expect them to do well. But Doc also knows that he has never had to work harder to get his team hungry, united and ready to rumble. The Clippers are a coin flip.

 

Honourable Mentions:

 

The Dallas Mavericks:

Before they traded for the mercurial Rajon Rondo, they were one the NBA’s elite offensive teams. Rondo was supposed to take that product and make it truly great. Instead, Rondo has played terribly and Dallas has lost more games after the trade than before it.

They have incredible talent, an incredible coach, and in Dirk Nowitzki, one of the all-time greats. But I do not see a team that is still struggling for an identity on the eve of the playoffs as a credible bet to win it all. That doesn’t happen, and the Rajon Rondo gamble may well define this season in the worst possible way. Dallas is out.

 

The OKC Thunder:

They should have been the West’s top dog, being hugely experienced, having two of the NBA’s five best players, and a hunger for greatness.

Instead, they might not even make the playoffs after injuries and an inept head coach have combined to sink their season. Even if OKC makes the playoffs, it will be without reigning MVP Kevin Durant and their defensive All-Star, Serge Ibaka. That’s like bringing a pillow to a knife fight.

Russell Westbrook has been breath-taking in their absence. But even Westbrook who is part man, part pure will, cannot carry them to a title by himself. This has been, without question, the saddest storyline this season.

 

 

 

 

NBA Futures Betting: Which of the Two Consensus Favourites Will Win the NBA Title?

NBA futures betting for the Championship has never been more open. Today, we break down the chances of the consensus favourites from each conference: the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

 

February 27, 2015

 

Both the pundits and the media at large have settled on the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers as consensus favourites to meet in the Finals. It’s the type of matchup that makes people forget their families for a week.

In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors started the season as a dangerous young team with a bright rookie head coach in Steve Kerr. We expected them to build on their 51 wins last season, and perhaps advance another round in the playoffs.

Nobody expected them to erupt with a 23-3 record, matching an all-time mark set by the 1996 Chicago Bulls (in fairness, those Bulls extended that streak to a ludicrous 41-3). The Warriors have also been a top 5 defensive team consistently. In a Conference with an unprecedented eight contenders, Golden State has played most like the top dog. Their consistency, incredible outside shooting and their balanced, unselfish play means no team has yet to challenge that status.

In the Eastern Conference, the star studded Cleveland Cavaliers are Jekyll and Hyde. The consensus preseason favourites, the Cavaliers were disappointing at first with a terrible 5-7 record. Then, they won eight in a row and all was well. Next, they lost nine of ten games and the world was ending.

Now, they’ve won 18 of their past 20 games including a massive win in Golden State last night. LeBron James remains the league’s undisputed best player. He’s in his prime and flanked by two bona fide All-Stars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who are finally figuring out how to play with James. They’ve made trades that addressed their primary weaknesses (lack of post defense and rim protection) and are now primed for a championship run.

Without question, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the most dangerous team in the NBA.

However, while both Cleveland and Golden State have been the best of their respective conferences, they are not a lock to meet in the Finals. The field of contenders is so abnormally deep this year that one could see either the Cavs or Warriors losing in a seven game series.

Welcome to the 2014-2015 NBA season, where everything is up in the air. Let’s break down the case for Golden State’s and Cleveland’s championship hopes.

 

Golden State’s Case:

Stephen Curry is like a walking, talking video game. His game is completely unique in NBA history. A guy who takes shots with such a high degree of difficulty simply should not be this efficient at making them. He makes over 40% of his three point attempts, shoots 49% from the field and is the deadliest shooter at the point guard position in a league that’s overflowing with them.

Next to him, we find young shooting guard Klay Thompson who has just exploded in a rainbow of ridiculous outside shooting. Remember Curry’s shooting stats? Here’s Thompson’s: 44% from three point range, 47% from the field overall, and almost every shot is outside of 18 feet.

He broke Twitter and the basketball media last month with 37 points in a single quarter against Sacramento. In a QUARTER! Twelve minutes of an NBA game and he hit 13 straight shots and NINE of them were threes! Needless to say, it’s an NBA record.

A year ago, the Warriors head coach at the time claimed “The Splash Brothers” were the greatest shooting backcourt in NBA history. We scoffed at him then. After all, don’t these two have a lot more to prove first?

Now, it doesn’t look like misguided hyperbole from a protective coach. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are absolutely on their way to becoming the finest pure shooting backcourt in NBA history. They’re not there yet, but their list of competitors grows thin.

Combined with a truly team-first dynamic, an excellent cast of versatile role players, a highly promising young coach with five Championship rings as a player, and the best home crowd in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are the real deal.

However: they live and die with Andrew Bogut’s injuries. Their only real rim protector, the Aussie center is disproportionally important to Golden State’s title hopes. But the problem is Bogut is highly injury-prone. If he’s out come playoff time, it represents a significant problem for the Warriors. Power forward David Lee is a gifted low post scorer and rebounder, but he is one of the most atrocious defenders in the entire NBA.

There is no depth in the Warriors frontcourt if Bogut is unavailable. Let’s not forget: the Western Conference path to the Finals is like a gauntlet of pain. Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge and some guy named Tim Duncan are just a few centers that Golden State can count on meeting come playoff time.

If Bogut isn’t 100%, that’s big trouble in a Conference that is overflowing with the NBA’s finest big men.

 

Cleveland’s Case:

LeBron James. Isn’t that enough? In a league dominated by superstars, LeBron is the undisputed best player. Let’s put it this way: last year’s Miami Heat team, with LeBron James, finished with a 54-28 regular season record.

LeBron jumped ship over the summer and returned to Cleveland. This season, Miami are sitting on a terrible 25-31 record with basically the exact same team minus LeBron. They’re barely in the playoffs in a historically bad Conference. With James, the Miami Heat played in four straight NBA Finals.

The best players matter more in the NBA than any other sport. It’s just that simple, and in LeBron James Cleveland has the unanimous best player.

They have depth and scoring chops in spades with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. They addressed their big man void with shrewd signings in Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins. They have perimeter defending and shooting sorted. And their early season growing pains with an unhappy Kevin Love seem to be in the past.

However, let’s address the 800-pound elephant in the room: inexperience.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are incredibly talented All-Stars. But together, they have played in exactly ZERO NBA playoff games in a combined ten NBA seasons. For a pair of stars as celebrated as these two, that is utterly unacceptable.

They may have the game, but do they have the brains? Are they mentally ready for a level of basketball that they have never experienced before?

But at least they’ve got NBA experience. The same cannot be said for their head coach. A daisy fresh rookie, David Blatt has never coached or even played in a single NBA game.

There have been numerous reports this season of LeBron defying his play calls and basically coaching the team himself out on the floor. James says he respects Blatt, but it is hard to believe that one of the NBA’s ten greatest ever players, a two-time champion and four-time MVP, would take an NBA rookie head coach seriously all the time.

Players look to LeBron for guidance. If he doesn’t buy in to coach’s game plan then they won’t either. The truth is that in one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in recent memory, Cleveland are still only third in the standings and a full ten games behind the Atlanta Hawks.

Much of that is down to the fact that Cleveland has been a work in progress throughout the season. A lot of their bickering comes from egos and not being on the same page while negotiating the growing pains suffered by any newly formed team.

Which brings us to this point: teams simply do not form and win a championship in their first year playing together. The 2008 Boston Celtics are an exception that proves the rule, but they never had to deal with coaching inexperience or team identity. They knew who they were on day one and were utterly unified. Cleveland took nearly 60 games to figure it out.

That being said, nobody in the East can stop Cleveland. It’s not even going to be close. Even Atlanta is going to struggle mightily against such a scoring juggernaut in Cleveland. The Cavs are a lock to make the Finals.

That’s where their championship hopes will be severely tested, because all eight playoff teams from the West have a better chance to beat Cleveland than the entire East combined.

Will raw talent, fiery scoring and the game’s best player be enough for the Cavaliers to win their first ever NBA Championship?

My brain says no. The West is too deep, and Cleveland just isn’t as unified as I would like to see in a truly elite contender.

But this is the NBA, where the game’s best player commands an abnormal amount of influence.

My heart says Cleveland absolutely can win the NBA title this season.

Both Golden State and Cleveland’s odds for winning the title is around 4-1, representing the joint-favourites. Should they meet in the Finals, that matchup would be incredibly difficult to call. But when push comes to shove, only one player from either team has won NBA titles: LeBron James.

I don’t feel good about it, but I might have to pick Cleveland to win this season’s NBA Championship.