Tag: Golf odds

World’s Best Golfers Switch to Match Play in Texas

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

We’re lucky to get one of the most exciting events on tour this week as the format switches to match play. Match play brings out the best (and worst) of some players and the unpredictability will make it a fascinating watch.

The Course

Overlooking Lake Austin, the Austin Country Club in Texas is a 7,073 yard, par 71 challenge founded in 1899 (though the course has moved a couple of times since then). The course mixes lowlands and highlands, making it relatively unique for the state and a challenge for players. Aggressive play here can be rewarded (see Rory McIlroy’s highlights from last year), but can also be severely penalised with the closely mown catchment areas around the greens and multiple hazards.

The Defending Champion

Jason Day backed up a win a week earlier at the Arnold Palmer by winning the 2016 matchplay edition and climb to the top of the world golf rankings. Jason Day got through his group that included Graeme McDowell, Thongchai Jade and Paul Casey, before defeating Brandt Snedeker, Brooks Koepka, and McIlroy in the knockout stages. His match against McIlroy was an instant classic which Day took out with a 12-foot par putt on the final hole.

In the final, he beat South Africa’s Louis Oosthuizen by 5&4, capping off an incredible effort against the toughest field in golf. We don’t think Day is good value this year. He’s at $17 but has too little competitive golf under his belt to go all the way this week.

The Contenders*

Dustin Johnson $9

After winning his last two starts at the Genesis Open and the WGC Mexico Championship, he’s trying to become first to win three consecutive starts since Rory McIlroy in 2014. Huge chance to win back to back WGCs.

Rory McIlroy $8

A beaten semi-finalist last year and a massive matchplay threat. Thrives in the format and his Ryder Cup singles match against Patrick Reed will go down as one of the greatest matches in the history of the format. Fourth last week.

Louis Oosthuizen $56

Match play specialist Oosthuizen has warmed up for the event with 3rd at the Waste Management Open. A top five in the ISPS Handa World Super 6 and a top ten at the Nedbank in South Africa round off a well-travelled, high performing last few months.

Patrick Reed $41

In horrible form this year, with just one top ten and lying a lowly 75th in the FedEx Cup, but is a true competitor in the match play format and it could bring out the best in him. Round of 16 last year before losing to DJ.

An Byeong-Hun $111

A slightly left-field tip is the South Korean 25-year old An Byeong-Hun who made the last 16 before succumbing to injury and conceding to Cabrera-Bello. Not enjoying the best season on TOUR this year, but could get through a group that features, like he did last year.

*Odds from Bet365.

The Winner

Hard to choose between McIlroy and Dustin Johnson, the huge hitters that intimidate others with their length. But we’ll go McIlroy again this week – just a little better in facets of the game that don’t involve the driver.

World’s Best Take on Tricky Tree-Lined Track in WGC

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Regular readers of our weekly golf preview will have noticed we achieved our second win of the season last week after correctly tipping Rickie Fowler to win the Honda Classic. While the prediction didn’t exactly involve us sticking our neck outs, it did feature three other players that finished in the top 25. Further reinforcing that the players highlighted below are not only great tips for the win, but also other bets on top 10s and top 25s when available.

With that in mind, here’s who we’re looking at this week:

The Course

For once, a course hosting a WGC has some truly unique characteristics. Club de Golf Chapultepec, in the mountains of Mexico City, offers challenges in altitude, unfamiliar greens and plenty of trees. The trees are probably the most talked about feature of the course ahead of this week’s World Golf Championship event.

The retro tree-lined layout isn’t long, but most of the pros are going to have to leave the driver in the bag as they navigate their way through the trees. The course is officially listed at 7,330 yards, however, when considering the appreciable distance a course at altitude can add to distances achieved, it is likely to play closer to 6000-6500 yards.

The course, which has been used in the past to host the Mexico Open (only one player in the field, Robert Diaz, played in the last edition of that event in 2014), will provide plenty of birdie opportunities if the players can keep it away from the impenetrably thick trees and out of the rough (despite the rough only being at 2inches). Expect to see lots of 2-irons and other safety players from the World’s best.

The Defending Champion

Adam Scott won the event, then hosted at Doral, by beating third-round leader Rory McIlroy in a rollercoaster final round. Scott had won the week before in the Honda Classic, surviving a quadruple bogey on Saturday to remind the Tour he’s good no matter what sort of putter he uses (this was shortly after the anchored putter ban).

At Doral, Scott started the day three shots back of Rory, hit two balls in the water, made two double bogeys, and still won. Another great escape effort that saw him become only the second player to win back to back titles on the Florida Swing (the other, Tiger Woods). Those early bogeys put him six behind after six holes, but the Australian played his final 13 holes in six under par to outclass the field.

He’s at $26 to defend this week, but we think he’s better suited to a top 10 bet.

The Contenders*

Dustin Johnson $7.50

This is the first time Johnson tees up as the World number one. Johnson’s imperious driver won’t get much of a workout but it might not matter. He ranks third on Tour for greens-in-regulation (GIR) and while some of that is down to hitting wedge into every green, it also points to a deadly accurate iron game no matter what the club. Reports suggest he’s hit the 2-iron well here during the practice rounds. Won three WGCs.

Jordan Spieth $9

Leading the Tour in GIR and posting top 10s all over the place. His worldwide streak of five in a row ended with a tie for 22nd at Riviera, however, he still looks ominous on a course that won’t see his lack of length disadvantage him.

Rickie Fowler $21

Coming off a win at the Honda Classic, Rickie is in hot form. Leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, which isn’t a stat that comes into play on a course that will give up a lot of birdies, but outlines his how pure ball striking ability and impressive short game. An okay record at altitude, with a tie for 4th at the 2014 BMW Championship.

Henrik Stenson $13

A beautiful iron manipulator, Stenson’s struggled with injury woes but is still stringing together performances wherever he plays, including finishing second in his last tournament in Dubai. Four WGC top 5s, no wins.

Jon Rahm $29

A debutante this week in WGC events who won’t be phased by the calibre of the field. Coming off a win at Torrey Pines and a T16 at the Waste Management and T5 at Pebble Beach. Priced attractively.

Tyrell Hatton $51

Hatton continues to post top-10s like they’re going out of fashion. After contending at nearly every event on the European Tour, Hatton ventured over to the Honda Classic at PGA National and finished 4th. Featured in the final group with Fowler, but let his best golf get away from him. Would’ve taken lots away from it, including a huge injection of belief.

Francesco Molinari $67

Our outsider for the week is the Italian maestro, Francesco Molinari. Often out-powered by the bigger hitters, he thrives on smaller setups where straight is required and could surprise this week. Won the 2010 WGC in Shanghai and finished 3rd at the 2011 WGC-Cadillac event.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

This is tricky when the World’s top 50 are all available and the odds are accordingly low. We’ll take a punt on Hatton in a bid to go back to back on correct predictions.

Strong Field for AT & T at Pebble Beach

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The field for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, this week’s PGA Tour stop will be thanking their lucky stars that Hideke Matsuyama isn’t lining up alongside them. The red-hot Japanese pro won again in Phoenix last week to underline his credentials as the form player on Tour. His absence gives the host of big names a chance to claim some silverware and valuable FedEx Cup points, but it won’t be easy given the quality of golfers on display.

Take a look at the players in the field to watch and our tip for the winner in this week’s PGA Tour preview of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am:

The Course

The Pro Am features a slightly unusual format with a third round cut line. Each player plays Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course, before those who progress enjoy the splendid Pebble beach for a second time.

The course is one of immaculate beauty. It’s ranked the number one public course in the US because of its spectacular views of the coastline, cliffs and ocean. Pebble Beach has hosted the US Open on multiple occasions and is best known for its tiny greens.

While none of the courses play long, they will provide an ample challenge in conditions where the ball won’t carry as far. Keep in mind, that with less carry, longer hitters might prevail, doubly so for those with great short games too as it will be impossible to maintain a high GIR percentage this week.

The Defending Champion

Vaughn Taylor shocked everyone last year by recording his first win in 11 years; defeating third-round leader Phil Mickelson, a guy that plays unbelievably well at Pebble Beach. Taylor posted a final round 65 before watching Phil miss a very makable five-footer for birdie on the last. At one stage Taylor was six shots off Mickelson’s lead.

Two Swedes’, Jones Blixt and Freddie Jacobson finished 3rd and 4th respectively to close out last year’s top four.

The Contenders*

Phil Mickelson $23

Four-time winner of the tournament and one that has featured (rightly so) in a number of our contender lists over the last month. Runner-up last year (as above) and in decent form – definitely worth considering.

Jason Day $13

A little bit of doubt surrounds his body as he looks to bounce back from a missed cut at Torrey Pines in his last start. Hopefully, his poor last outing can be put down to Tiger’s presence/funk and he brings the game that has seen him record three top 10s here in the past.

Justin Rose $15

Rose was tied 6th here last year and has been hanging around the leaderboard in his two starts this year (2nd in Hawaii and 4th in the Farmers Insurance Open. A great look if his back is healthy.

Dustin Johnson $9

Also looking to bounce back after playing with Tiger a fortnight ago. Johnson has a curious record in the AT&T; two wins and another four top 10s scattered amongst 3 missed cuts. A course that will certainly suit his length.

Jordan Spieth $10

Quietly putting together a nice start to the season ahead of April’s trip to Augusta. Spieth has had four top tens in his last four events and has never missed a cut here.

Jon Rahm $23

The young Spaniard continues to play a full calendar despite enjoying a breakthrough win only a couple of weeks ago. Rahm hasn’t played in the tournament before, but if he can close out a tournament with a 60ft eagle putt he can pretty much do anything.

If nothing takes your fancy above, consider Patrick Reed ($29), J.B. Holmes ($41) or J.J Spaun ($67) as the next best options.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

Phil’s form and history will likely lead to the left-hander being the favourite in most circles. For that reason, we’ll include him here with a strong feeling that Spaun could do something great too.

2016 PGA Tour Winners Meet To Find Champion of Champions

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Golf in 2017 is an exciting prospect. With the likes of Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy all beginning to embrace the rivalry amongst each other, and the return of Tiger Woods to a full season of play, golf fans have lots to look forward to.

The first taste of golf in 2017 is the Tournament of Champions, open to winners from last year’s PGA Tour season. The elitist nature of the tournament means we’re in for a highly competitive field and top-notch golf. Let’s take a look at the course and the players that are likely to be there or thereabouts on Sunday.

The Course

The Plantation course at Kapalua is the number one ranked course in Hawaii. Designed by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore it plays 7,411 yards and is a par 73 layout. Big fairways and big greens make for easy tee to green statistics, but undulating greens may make up for it. The course features massive changes in elevation offering plenty of downhill tee shots; tailor made for the big hitting pros.

The Defending Champion

Jordan Spieth was a comfortable winner last year over Patrick Reed (2nd), Brandt Snedeker and Brooks Koepka (T3). It was, at a time when Spieth was winning everything though (Majors, Hero World Challenge) so it came as no surprise. Spieth’s 30-under total showed just how manageable the Kapalua course is if the wind doesn’t blow. Spieth’s at $6.50 to go back-to-back.

The Contenders*

Bubba Watson $17

The two-time Masters champion has now won on the PGA Tour at least once in six of the last seven seasons after winning the Northern Trust Open. Desperately hard to predict but on his day an absolute showman that is tough to beat. Though, can his day last for four.

Dustin Johnson $6.50

2016 was the year of the DJ. He took out his first major, the U.S. Open at Oakmont and had two other high-profile wins, the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational and the BMW Championship during the FedExCup Playoffs. Those three victories and 15 top 10s in 22 starts earned him Player of the Year honours for the first time. He should hit the ground running like he never left. Massive chance.

Jason Day $7.50

Australian Jason Day will make his 2016-17 PGA TOUR season debut at the SBS Tournament of Champions after being sidelined in the fall while rehabilitating a back injury. He’s never finished outside the top 10 here, but the injury is a major worry.

Hideki Matsuyama $6

Matsuyama leads the FedExCup standings on the strength of a second place finish at the CIMB Classic and a win at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions in Shanghai. He also won the HERO World Challenge just to further underpin his potential to win here. Seriously consider for the win or each way.

Patrick Reed $12

Reed won this event in 2015 and finished second here last year so if you use course form as your guide, he’s as good a tip as you’ll find. Caution though could be exercised on his recent form – a pretty poor showing at the HERO World Challenge.

Brandt Snedeker $21

2012 FedExCup champion Brandt Snedeker qualified to play in his fifth SBS Tournament of Champions with a brilliant final round at the Farmers Insurance Open, which saw some of the worst weather – and worst scoring – of the year. Performed well here last year – as he does in almost every single tournament he plays in.

*Odds from Bet365

The Winner

A strong field is always tricky to predict, so we’ll bank on course history and recent form to suggest Reed or Matsuyama will prevail in Hawaii.

Scott the Overwhelming PGA Favourite Despite Being “Just Average”

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Tournament number two in Australia’s prestigious Triple Crown is upon us this week and hosted on the Gold Coast again for the fourth straight year.

Let’s take a look at the course, the contenders and the odds for the Australian PGA Championship starting Thursday:

The Course

RACV Royal Pines Resort on the Gold Coast is home to tight fairways, undulating greens and immaculately manicured swales. 27 holes mean the course can be played in three different ways, with all of them having its own distinctive challenges. It will play longish at 6,690 metres, with six par 4s that measure more than 400 metres, four par 5s that are over 500 metres long, and a 201-metre par 3. And will be covered in bunkers (which won’t be new to those that played on the Melbourne sandbelt).

The Defending Champion

Nathan Holman defied the odds to win last year. In doing so, he secured a European Tour card but really struggled to find his footing in the competitive tour. His recent form doesn’t bode that well for a successful defence. In fact, he withdrew from the recent Nedbank Golf Challenge with a bad back. Holman’s at $51 to go back to back.

The Contenders*

Adam Scott $4.50 – The World number 7 is the obvious drawcard for the second premier event of the Australian season, and the clear favourite with the bookies to take out the lion’s share of the $1.5 million purse. Scott’s in okay form; he described himself as “just average” recently. A T14th at the Australian Open was followed up with some decent golf with Marc Leishman in the World Cup of Gold teams format tournament.

Ian Poulter $34 – The Englishman is probably better known for his Twitter exploits than his golf game these days, but could still surprise in a relatively lean field. Once the European’s team clutch man on the greens during Ryder Cups, Poulter has been without a win since 2012.

Marc Leishman $15 – The other half of Australia’s World Cup team, Leishman hits the ball long and could really light up the Royal Ones lay out if at his best. However, he’s probably not near it at the moment and probably has one eye on a break. The PGA will be his last tournament before a long break.

Cameron Smith $15 – The young Australian lost the Australian Open in a playoff to Jordan Spieth. He rocketed into contention with a final round 66. At the same time illustrating the type of form that’s seen him compete regularly in the States in 2016. He’ll contend again here this week and looks at nice odds.

Harold Varner III $34 – Varner’s a little powerhouse. Relatively small but hits it a mile. The Ohio-born 26-year-old hasn’t enjoyed the best of starts in 2016/17 but enjoyed three top tens last season on the PGA Tour. One thing is a certainty, though; he’ll thrive with the boisterous Aussie crowds.

Danny Lee $23 – New Zealand’s number one golfer is making his Australian PGA Championship debut this week. The PGA Tour winner and current world number 58 is backing up after combining with Ryan Fox to finish T11 in the IPSA Hands World Cup of Golf last week. He looks a good prospect because of a previous win in Australia in the 2009 Johnnie Walker Classic, achieved as an amateur.

Ryan Fox $23 – The Kiwi’s built more like a rugby player than a golfer – it’s likely due to his genes (his dad Grant played for the All Blacks for a long time). But, he’s still got an incredible touch around the greens and could really challenge here after a good few weeks in Australia. He’ll be better for his experience in the final groups challenging for the Stonehaven and by being surrounded by the quality golfers at the World Cup.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

Although I labelled the group above, “contenders” I don’t actually think many of them will challenge for the title. Some of them are just famous names in the field, who are likely to struggle. I like Lee and Smith.

Noren Leads After Day 1 in Alfred Dunhill Links Golf Championship

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The Alfred Dunhill Links Golf Championship is not only one of the richest events on the European Tour but also one of the most demanding and unique. In competitive golf, it is normal for a tournament to be played on the same course but not this one.

Despite its high prize money, this is a pro-am event. That means that amateurs, as well as professionals, can take part. Down the years some of the biggest names in sport and entertainment have featured here. Despite the event being played over several different courses, they all centre around St Andrews.

Underdogs Shine

It also happens to be an event where the underdog tends to do rather well. A quick look at the recent past winners shows this. For example, Thorbjorn Olesen of Denmark triumphed last year. Prior to that, we had players like Branden Grace, David Howell, Oliver Wilson and Michael Hoey winning the title.

So, if you are searching for a winner in this year’s event, then it may pay to stay clear of the favourites. Despite the recent Ryder Cup schedule being a hectic one, that hasn’t stopped half of the European team making it to St Andrews.

Players like Danny Willett, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer will be taking part. If the wind blows then these courses can be a real test, and local knowledge will pay big dividends. Sometimes it isn’t about the big named players but who can get here early and do the most preparation.

Seek out Local Experts

There are always local professionals around that know any course like the back of their hand. Club pros and local amateurs are always good to work with, and picking their brains can often lead to a pot of gold. The nuances of links golf mean that courses can change dramatically. This is especially the case in the autumn.

So where is the value this year? Where should your money be? Can we even predict a winner given recent results? It is certainly a tricky tournament to analyse for sure. Seeing that we now have part of the puzzle solved with play into day two then life should get easier.

Can Noren be Stopped?

Alex Noren from Sweden currently leads after shooting a stunning opening round of 64. He goes into Friday’s second round one shot clear and is 2/1 with Stan James and Ladbrokes to be the overall winner. However, there has to be better value than that around! You can get a much better 10/1 on current second placed player Ross Fisher coming up trumps come Sunday. You can get those odds with Coral and Betfred.

If you want to go further down the field, then a possible long shot or two begin to stand out. Like Raphael Jacquelin at 66/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes. He was only three shots off the lead after an opening round of 67. As a rule, it is tough to make golf betting pay unless you land the big priced winners.

The world of golf is a highly competitive one. There is nothing much to choose between the top 50 in any event, including the Alfred Dunhill Links Golf Championship. If you can swing one big priced winner per year then this could be all it takes to be a profitable golf bettor.