Tag: Goodwood betting

Goodwood 25th September Preview

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Two out of two yesterday with Alex Vino (9-4) and Squire Osbaldeston (tipped at 5-2) keeping the profits rolling in. There are two stand-out bets on Goodwood’s card on Wednesday. On form, both should win comfortably but there are factors that could hinder the chances of either.

The first is Grandeur in the Foundation Stakes at 3.40. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old won the Hollywood Turf Cup last season and was again on his travels in August when attempting to land the Arlington Million. His chances were dealt a blow when he was given a poor draw and he subsequently suffered an injury during the race.

It was to his credit that he was able to run on as well as he did to finish a little over four lengths back in fourth behind the promoted Real Solution. On his previous start he had closed to within three-quarters of a length of the odds-on Mukhadram at York and he will be hard to beat on that form. The concern has to be whether he can bounce back from his exertions. He was accompanied to Arlington by Yeager and that horse ran as if his legs were tied together at Newmarket on Saturday.

Opposition includes Goodwood Cup winner Brown Panther, racing over a trip well short of his best in order to finalise plans for a possible Melbourne Cup tilt. Sugar Boy is a more potent threat over this trip having beaten Eye Of The Storm, Galileo Rock and Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial in April. He is on the comeback trail after running a dismal race in the Irish Derby.

The second wager is the rapidly improving Battalion*, trained by William Haggas. The three-year-old has been a revelation since getting some give in the ground and handed out a thrashing to hat-trick seeking Thomas Hobson at Yarmouth last week. He made the running under Silvestre de Sousa and the jockey could scarcely believe his eyes when glancing over at his toiling rivals. The race was over long before the final furlong and he was eased to a five-length victory.

He is running again quickly because he incurs only a 6lbs penalty whereas the handicapper will undoubtedly clobber him with at least twice that. He still has 9st 13lb to carry but the main worry is whether the ground will be soft enough for him. It is officially good to soft, soft in places, but drying out rapidly on the Sussex Downs. Providing there is enough juice left in the ground, he should provide Ryan Moore with another winner.

Grandeur 3.40 5-2 Paddy Power

Battalion 4.15 6-4 Coral (*non-runner)

 

Goodwood Saturday Preview

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Moviesta (tipped at 9-1) and Montiridge (13-8) did us proud on day 4 of Glorious Goodwood but it could have been even better with three second place finishes. I always thought Moviesta could take the step up in class after being unlucky twice in big three-year-old handicaps and the furious gallop was right up his street.

The fact that he was pipped by Heaven’s Guest at Newmarket last time hasn’t gone unnoticed and the bookies have already trimmed his price for the Stewards’ Cup. 12-1 is now the best price for Richard Fahey’s runner but I think that still represents a bit of value. I think Moviesta would be less than half of those odds if he were running here off nine stone. Stall 22 may not be that great as the far side seem to have had the edge all week and I have similar concerns for my other selection, Shropshire.

He actually starts from the adjacent stall to Heaven’s Guest (21) but has the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle. He has been running well all season and is probably handicapped to sneak into the frame again at a top price of 14-1. I’m not tempted by the price for Tropics because it wasn’t the greatest race that he won last weekend whilst Ninjago may find them going a bit too quick early on.

The focus of attention in the Nassau Stakes will inevitably be on Sky Lantern after her unlucky defeat in the Falmouth Stakes. I think quite enough has been written about that race but it didn’t really give us any clues as to whether or not she will stay ten furlongs. It is difficult to see any of her Ascot victims reversing the form here but I think there may be some value in the older horses.

The one that stands out at the price is Godolphin’s Sajjhaa. She won four on the bounce in Meydan before finishing fourth in a Group 1 at Sha Tin. It’s anybody’s guess how fit she will be for this but you’d like to think they would have given her plenty of work. Hannon and Hughes can do no wrong this week (in stark contrast to Royal Ascot) and it would be no surprise to see Sky Lantern cruising up at the furlong marker but she’s no great value at the price.

Heaven’s Guest 12-1 (NAP) Bet365
Shropshire 14-1 Coral
Sajjhaa 11-1 Bet365

Goodwood Friday Preview

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Brown Panther got us back on the winning trail in the Goodwood Cup which sets us up nicely for a tilt at Friday’s action-packed card. Some days are not very inspiring but just about every race looks tempting with the Betfair Mile (formerly Schweppes Golden Mile) being the big betting race.

Looking back at past winners I have to say that this race owes me a few quid! My trials and tribulations go back to a horse called Desert Dirham who was then trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He was an ante-post gamble from 10-1 down to 2-1 but was drawn wide and just about brought down trying to get a run in the straight. It is not a race that you can approach with confidence, particularly if you fancy a hold up horse that is drawn high.

Stirring Ballad’s disastrous run at Royal Ascot has been well documented but, just in case you missed it, here’s a quick recap. Richard Hughes decides that he is drawn on the wrong side so takes her diagonally across the track to the stands side. He gets no room at any stage and the side he was originally on turns out to be well ahead at the finish. Less publicised was the same manoeuvre taken by Prince Of Johanne (our ante-post selection) in the same race. He came out and won the Coral Challenge next time out.

Stirring Ballad is drawn four in the Mile and should be able to tuck in behind the pace from there and deliver her challenge late. Other fancied hold up horses are Wentworth (13), Dance And Dance (1) and Cape Peron (5). I like Henry Candy’s colt a lot but I’m just a little concerned as to whether he can handle the hustle and bustle. The ground should be ideal for both horses provided it doesn’t dry out too much. With 8-1 available about both I think we should support both and hope that their jockeys sit close and don’t mess it up at the start.

The card opens with my old friend Lost In The Moment and I can’t possibly desert him after his brave victory at Newmarket. He survived getting sandwiched and whacked over the head with a whip to get up and win. On form he should not beat his stable companion Masterstroke (3rd in the Arc) but I’m staying loyal in the hope that fitness makes the difference.

Montiridge has looked a really classy performer at times and loomed up in the Jersey Stakes as if he was certain to win. His stable companion Baltic Knight is a tough customer and should make a race of it but 13-8 about reflects Montiridge’s prospects here.

The King George Stakes at 3.40 is packed full with the usual suspects over five furlongs. However, the one that I like here is Moviesta who takes a step up in grade after being pipped in two big handicaps. They just never go quick enough for him in his races and this mad downhill dash should at last give him the chance to settle. I’m also going to have a saver on Duke Of Firenze at long odds. Ryan Moore has decided that the way to ride him is not to bully him and hope that he keeps pace with the others so that he can deliver a short burst at the finish. This worked well in the Epsom Dash but went horribly wrong at Sandown last time.

Grecian looks a decent bet at 8-1 in the nursery after losing narrowly at Ascot. Paul Cole may not be in the major league these days (apart from Ascot winner Berkshire) but he can still produce a good one from time to time.

Pavlosk did us a favour when forming part of a Stoute treble at York earlier in the season. She was supplemented for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but struggled in that company. She will be much more at home here and hopefully the ground won’t be too firm for her either.

Finally, I like Goodwood Mirage in the last. He ran well enough in a competitive race at the Newmarket July meeting but gets a bit further to travel here and the assistance of Frankie Dettori. His name gives away the fact that his owners would dearly love to win at this meeting and 9-2 makes plenty of appeal.

Lost In The Moment 6-1 Totesport
Montiridge 13-8 Bet365
Stirring Ballad 8-1 Totesport
Cape Peron 8-1 William Hill
Moviesta 9-1 Paddy Power
Duke Of Firenze 18-1 William Hill
Grecian 8-1 Ladbrokes
Pavlosk 5-1 Coral
Goodwood Mirage 9-2 Bet365

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

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The weather put paid to my Goodwood selections on day 1. As soon as I tuned in to see the mist and rain I knew my fate! Fortunately Aljamaaheer was withdrawn in the hope of finding faster ground elsewhere.

I was hoping that Sir Graham Wade might also be taken out but he took his chance. I must admit that I find jockeys a law unto themselves at times. First time blinkers on and Franny Norton chased him out of the stalls as if it was a five furlong dash! Not surprisingly he took off and Norton spent the next mile trying to pull him back. Then, when the grey was well and truly shattered, he started giving him reminders! I can only imagine that the horse what the horse may have been thinking “Go, Stop, Go, Will you make up your ******* mind!”

Anyway, clearly we have to take the softened ground into consideration if we are to survive five days so here is a look at day 2. The feature race is being rather foolishly termed as the duel on the Downs. Sound familiar? Yes, Frankel versus Canford Cliffs (a bit one-sided as far as duels go). I cannot see it as a two horse race with Declaration Of War in the field.

Followers of this column will know that he swept past my two ante-post bets in the Queen Anne to deny me a 33-1 win payout on the afore-mentioned Aljamaaheer. I’d also suggested that Gregorian was overpriced at 50-1 and he ran a stormer in third. I think he may be overpriced again here at 33-1 but it is hard to see him reversing form with O’Brien’s colt.

Declaration Of War has since run a fine second behind Al Kazeem in the Eclipse with Mars in behind. That was over a mile and a quarter but this is his best trip and there is no evidence that the three-year-old mile division is any better than the middle-distance horses. I think 11-2 is generous, especially given the softer ground, so I shall take him with a saver on Gregorian.

Whatever the fate of Gregorian, Gosden should still be among the winners. Excess Knowledge has an excellent chance in the Gordon Stakes. He took on older horses at Sandown on his belated first appearance as a three-year-old and stayed on well behind Mandour. They don’t look a great bunch lined up against him and 9-4 seems fair.

Much Promise lived up to her name on her debut when chasing home Sir Michael Stoute’s Along Again without being hard ridden. The winner ran well at Ascot on Saturday so the form may be better than first appeared.

JG can finish off a good day with the well handicapped Close At Hand in the 5.25. The daughter of Exceed And Excel won a poor maiden at Windsor easily enough but could have got in here with a lenient handicap mark.

Excess Knowledge (NAP) 9-4 Coral
Declaration Of War 11-2 Stan James
Gregorian (each-way) 33-1 Bet Victor
Much Promise
Close At Hand 8-1 Paddy Power

Glorious Goodwood Tuesday Preview

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Yeager (20-1) gave us a timely boost on Saturday ahead of Glorious Goodwood. It was nice to get one on the board on a very tricky card. Trading Leather never looked like beating Novellist in the King George but he clung on to second place and that’s probably about as good as he is. It’s going to take a good horse to lower Novellist’s colours in the Arc.

Goodwood kicks off with a cracking good handicap over a mile and a quarter. I am a fan of Nabucco but I’m put off by his wide draw here. Fast Or Free has been taken out of several big handicaps at the last minute, presumably to wait for a bit of give in the ground. Haggas produced a nice horse to win first time out at York on Saturday so fitness shouldn’t be a problem. The trip is a bit further than he’s been before but he could be a group horse disguised as a handicapper and makes some appeal at 7-1.

The Molecomb Stakes looks a bit like the Windsor Palace Stakes revisited with four of that field renewing rivalry. Kevin Ryan’s Sleeper King was in front of his group for a long way at Ascot and I can see him hurtling down the hill here. Supplicant and Anticipated have obvious claims but it’s worth taking a punt at 12-1 that Sleeper King can hold on.

My old friend Aljamaaheer simply has to be my first day banker in the Lennox Stakes. He deservedly got his head in front here in the Summer Mile but this step back to seven furlongs won’t trouble him. He always travels well but doesn’t quite find as much as you would expect so Hanagan will be delivering his challenge as late as possible. If you can get the 11-4 I think that is a rattling good price for a class horse.

The mile and three quarter handicap that closes the TV coverage on day 1 features a host of familiar names. At the start of the season I thought Sir Graham Wade would make a Cup horse but he’s been very disappointing. He gets the blinkers fitted tomorrow for the first time and they should help Franny Norton to get a bit more out of him.

The Johnston horses are a law unto themselves and I have just about given up trying to figure them out. They run every week and vary between brilliant and average, Galician being a case in point at Ascot on Saturday. Oriental Fox looked set to win the slowly run Northumberland Plate but you could tell that his jockey was praying for the line and he got pipped by Tominator. I’m probably going to regret this but I’ll give the grey one more chance as he is twice the price of his stable companion.

Fast Or Free 7-1 Boylesports
Sleeper King 12-1 Ladbrokes
Aljamaaheer (NAP) 11-4 Coral
Sir Graham Wade 9-1 Betfair