Tag: Goodwood tips

Goodwood 25th September Preview

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Two out of two yesterday with Alex Vino (9-4) and Squire Osbaldeston (tipped at 5-2) keeping the profits rolling in. There are two stand-out bets on Goodwood’s card on Wednesday. On form, both should win comfortably but there are factors that could hinder the chances of either.

The first is Grandeur in the Foundation Stakes at 3.40. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old won the Hollywood Turf Cup last season and was again on his travels in August when attempting to land the Arlington Million. His chances were dealt a blow when he was given a poor draw and he subsequently suffered an injury during the race.

It was to his credit that he was able to run on as well as he did to finish a little over four lengths back in fourth behind the promoted Real Solution. On his previous start he had closed to within three-quarters of a length of the odds-on Mukhadram at York and he will be hard to beat on that form. The concern has to be whether he can bounce back from his exertions. He was accompanied to Arlington by Yeager and that horse ran as if his legs were tied together at Newmarket on Saturday.

Opposition includes Goodwood Cup winner Brown Panther, racing over a trip well short of his best in order to finalise plans for a possible Melbourne Cup tilt. Sugar Boy is a more potent threat over this trip having beaten Eye Of The Storm, Galileo Rock and Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial in April. He is on the comeback trail after running a dismal race in the Irish Derby.

The second wager is the rapidly improving Battalion*, trained by William Haggas. The three-year-old has been a revelation since getting some give in the ground and handed out a thrashing to hat-trick seeking Thomas Hobson at Yarmouth last week. He made the running under Silvestre de Sousa and the jockey could scarcely believe his eyes when glancing over at his toiling rivals. The race was over long before the final furlong and he was eased to a five-length victory.

He is running again quickly because he incurs only a 6lbs penalty whereas the handicapper will undoubtedly clobber him with at least twice that. He still has 9st 13lb to carry but the main worry is whether the ground will be soft enough for him. It is officially good to soft, soft in places, but drying out rapidly on the Sussex Downs. Providing there is enough juice left in the ground, he should provide Ryan Moore with another winner.

Grandeur 3.40 5-2 Paddy Power

Battalion 4.15 6-4 Coral (*non-runner)

 

Goodwood and Newmarket 24th August Preview

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Although most of the attention will be on the final day of the Ebor meeting at York, there are plenty of decent betting opportunities at Goodwood and Newmarket.

Anyone who saw Glen Moss cruise to success at Newbury to land a gamble last weekend will be happy to support him under a 6lb penalty in the Heritage Handicap tomorrow. I tipped him last week at 11-2 and was surprised as much by his SP of 5-2 as the ease of his victory. The confidence behind him was fully justified and I cannot let him go unbacked at around 6-1 this week.

Frankie Dettori gets the ride with the jockeys spread far and wide and he should be able to follow the pace from his draw in midfield. I am always wary of the Johnston horses in these handicap races and Galician gave Glen Moss a beating at Ascot and meets him on identical terms. The grey filly has run twice since and I’m hoping she doesn’t turn up to spoil the party.

Equally as impressive as Glen Moss was the performance of Afsare at Salisbury last time. Everyone knows that Afsare is a character having refused to enter the stalls previously and also finished second in the Arlington Million 12 months ago. If he’s on song tomorrow they won’t know which way he’s gone.

My old friends John Gosden and William Buick have a busy day lined up at Newmarket tomorrow. Fledged has already been backed off the boards before I could get my copy “to press” so there won’t be any 6-1 left by the time you read this. He looks progressive and is obviously expected to complete his hat-trick on Saturday.

Willow Beck has a similar profile and won at the course easily recently. Taayel is probably facing the toughest task of the three but is open to improvement and holds Valbchek on his last outing. The trio are worth doing in a nice patent.

Glen Moss 7-1 Bet Victor

Afsare 11-4 Bet365

Fledged 4-1 Coral

Willow Beck 2-1 Paddy Power

Taayel 4-1 Paddy Power

Goodwood Saturday Preview

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Moviesta (tipped at 9-1) and Montiridge (13-8) did us proud on day 4 of Glorious Goodwood but it could have been even better with three second place finishes. I always thought Moviesta could take the step up in class after being unlucky twice in big three-year-old handicaps and the furious gallop was right up his street.

The fact that he was pipped by Heaven’s Guest at Newmarket last time hasn’t gone unnoticed and the bookies have already trimmed his price for the Stewards’ Cup. 12-1 is now the best price for Richard Fahey’s runner but I think that still represents a bit of value. I think Moviesta would be less than half of those odds if he were running here off nine stone. Stall 22 may not be that great as the far side seem to have had the edge all week and I have similar concerns for my other selection, Shropshire.

He actually starts from the adjacent stall to Heaven’s Guest (21) but has the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle. He has been running well all season and is probably handicapped to sneak into the frame again at a top price of 14-1. I’m not tempted by the price for Tropics because it wasn’t the greatest race that he won last weekend whilst Ninjago may find them going a bit too quick early on.

The focus of attention in the Nassau Stakes will inevitably be on Sky Lantern after her unlucky defeat in the Falmouth Stakes. I think quite enough has been written about that race but it didn’t really give us any clues as to whether or not she will stay ten furlongs. It is difficult to see any of her Ascot victims reversing the form here but I think there may be some value in the older horses.

The one that stands out at the price is Godolphin’s Sajjhaa. She won four on the bounce in Meydan before finishing fourth in a Group 1 at Sha Tin. It’s anybody’s guess how fit she will be for this but you’d like to think they would have given her plenty of work. Hannon and Hughes can do no wrong this week (in stark contrast to Royal Ascot) and it would be no surprise to see Sky Lantern cruising up at the furlong marker but she’s no great value at the price.

Heaven’s Guest 12-1 (NAP) Bet365
Shropshire 14-1 Coral
Sajjhaa 11-1 Bet365

Goodwood Thursday Preview

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I’m always a bit worried when I tip the same horse as the Tipsy Tipster. Not that I question his judgement of course! It just feels like the poor horse is carrying a 10lb penalty!

That was certainly the case for Excess Knowledge in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday. Having looked as though he needed every yard when staying on into third at Sandown last time I was sure he would be sitting third or fourth but Master Buick decided otherwise and held him up at the back.

As we saw at Sandown, he doesn’t do anything very quickly so being messed about when trying to get a run was far from ideal. The Channel 4 commentary team was quite kind to Buick but basically he rode a poor race and should definitely have won. Whether or not it was St Leger form I’m not sure but there will be another day for Excess Knowledge.

My winnings from Yeager are slowly but surely making their way back to the beloved bookies thanks to Goodwood so let’s hope for better luck on Cup day. At first glance it looks a bit of a weak renewal with neither Estimate or Simenon in attendance. John Oxx has expressed the view that it is a better race than last year when Saddler’s Rock won and he is most concerned by Brown Panther and Mount Athos.

Of the two I much prefer Brown Panther who has never quite fulfilled his potential. Perhaps this step up in trip will be the making of him and he’s a fair price at around 8-1. I’m also going to support the German raider Altano who was sat out of his ground at Ascot and got going all too late in fifth. I’m hoping that the penny will have dropped for jockey Mr Pedroza and he will be closer to the pace this time (famous last words!).

There are some promising types in the opener but none more so than Code Of Honor. There was a lot to like about his Sandown victory and he looks the sort of horse that could wind up in the Cambridgeshire.

Ben Hall must be better than he showed at Ascot as he was well supported that day. The form wasn’t exactly franked earlier in the week and I should probably do Gosden and Buick a favour and leave them alone! Unfortunately the fact that he’s about 10-1 and the form horse Figure Of Speech is 6-4 leaves me no choice but to support Ben Hall each-way.

My last bet of the day is on Muharrib in the 4.50. I felt confident that he was coming to win his race at Newmarket before hanging right to the rail and finishing second to Law Enforcement. These three-year-old handicaps take some figuring out but I think he’s still got improvement in him and will be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

Code Of Honor 4-1 Coral
Ben Hall 10-1 Totesport
Brown Panther 8-1 Skybet
Altano 13-2 William Hill
Muharrib 8-1 Coral

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

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The weather put paid to my Goodwood selections on day 1. As soon as I tuned in to see the mist and rain I knew my fate! Fortunately Aljamaaheer was withdrawn in the hope of finding faster ground elsewhere.

I was hoping that Sir Graham Wade might also be taken out but he took his chance. I must admit that I find jockeys a law unto themselves at times. First time blinkers on and Franny Norton chased him out of the stalls as if it was a five furlong dash! Not surprisingly he took off and Norton spent the next mile trying to pull him back. Then, when the grey was well and truly shattered, he started giving him reminders! I can only imagine that the horse what the horse may have been thinking “Go, Stop, Go, Will you make up your ******* mind!”

Anyway, clearly we have to take the softened ground into consideration if we are to survive five days so here is a look at day 2. The feature race is being rather foolishly termed as the duel on the Downs. Sound familiar? Yes, Frankel versus Canford Cliffs (a bit one-sided as far as duels go). I cannot see it as a two horse race with Declaration Of War in the field.

Followers of this column will know that he swept past my two ante-post bets in the Queen Anne to deny me a 33-1 win payout on the afore-mentioned Aljamaaheer. I’d also suggested that Gregorian was overpriced at 50-1 and he ran a stormer in third. I think he may be overpriced again here at 33-1 but it is hard to see him reversing form with O’Brien’s colt.

Declaration Of War has since run a fine second behind Al Kazeem in the Eclipse with Mars in behind. That was over a mile and a quarter but this is his best trip and there is no evidence that the three-year-old mile division is any better than the middle-distance horses. I think 11-2 is generous, especially given the softer ground, so I shall take him with a saver on Gregorian.

Whatever the fate of Gregorian, Gosden should still be among the winners. Excess Knowledge has an excellent chance in the Gordon Stakes. He took on older horses at Sandown on his belated first appearance as a three-year-old and stayed on well behind Mandour. They don’t look a great bunch lined up against him and 9-4 seems fair.

Much Promise lived up to her name on her debut when chasing home Sir Michael Stoute’s Along Again without being hard ridden. The winner ran well at Ascot on Saturday so the form may be better than first appeared.

JG can finish off a good day with the well handicapped Close At Hand in the 5.25. The daughter of Exceed And Excel won a poor maiden at Windsor easily enough but could have got in here with a lenient handicap mark.

Excess Knowledge (NAP) 9-4 Coral
Declaration Of War 11-2 Stan James
Gregorian (each-way) 33-1 Bet Victor
Much Promise
Close At Hand 8-1 Paddy Power

Glorious Goodwood Tuesday Preview

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Yeager (20-1) gave us a timely boost on Saturday ahead of Glorious Goodwood. It was nice to get one on the board on a very tricky card. Trading Leather never looked like beating Novellist in the King George but he clung on to second place and that’s probably about as good as he is. It’s going to take a good horse to lower Novellist’s colours in the Arc.

Goodwood kicks off with a cracking good handicap over a mile and a quarter. I am a fan of Nabucco but I’m put off by his wide draw here. Fast Or Free has been taken out of several big handicaps at the last minute, presumably to wait for a bit of give in the ground. Haggas produced a nice horse to win first time out at York on Saturday so fitness shouldn’t be a problem. The trip is a bit further than he’s been before but he could be a group horse disguised as a handicapper and makes some appeal at 7-1.

The Molecomb Stakes looks a bit like the Windsor Palace Stakes revisited with four of that field renewing rivalry. Kevin Ryan’s Sleeper King was in front of his group for a long way at Ascot and I can see him hurtling down the hill here. Supplicant and Anticipated have obvious claims but it’s worth taking a punt at 12-1 that Sleeper King can hold on.

My old friend Aljamaaheer simply has to be my first day banker in the Lennox Stakes. He deservedly got his head in front here in the Summer Mile but this step back to seven furlongs won’t trouble him. He always travels well but doesn’t quite find as much as you would expect so Hanagan will be delivering his challenge as late as possible. If you can get the 11-4 I think that is a rattling good price for a class horse.

The mile and three quarter handicap that closes the TV coverage on day 1 features a host of familiar names. At the start of the season I thought Sir Graham Wade would make a Cup horse but he’s been very disappointing. He gets the blinkers fitted tomorrow for the first time and they should help Franny Norton to get a bit more out of him.

The Johnston horses are a law unto themselves and I have just about given up trying to figure them out. They run every week and vary between brilliant and average, Galician being a case in point at Ascot on Saturday. Oriental Fox looked set to win the slowly run Northumberland Plate but you could tell that his jockey was praying for the line and he got pipped by Tominator. I’m probably going to regret this but I’ll give the grey one more chance as he is twice the price of his stable companion.

Fast Or Free 7-1 Boylesports
Sleeper King 12-1 Ladbrokes
Aljamaaheer (NAP) 11-4 Coral
Sir Graham Wade 9-1 Betfair