Tag: Goodwood

Goodwood Friday Preview

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The colts take centre stage at Goodwood on Friday with The Cocked Hat Stakes attracting some promising types. It is a long time since this race had any merit as a Derby trial but a couple of these still hold entries at Epsom.

The one that stands out is Roger Charlton’s Observational. He is yet to win a race after finishing second in both starts but has shown plenty of promise. He was second at Newbury in soft ground on his debut in October, staying on well without threatening to catch Chatez.

He did not reappear until April and ran a cracker in a valuable sales race at Newmarket over ten furlongs. He launched his run on the wide outside and looked likely to win with a furlong to travel but found Sudden Wonder just too strong. Charlton’s horses are usually better for their first run and the son of Galileo can get off the mark tomorrow.

Postponed is the obvious threat after finishing third in the Craven Stakes and fourth behind Barley Mow. That latest effort was slightly disappointing and Derby entries for both he and Observational look a shade optimistic.

Tioga Pass is my selection for the staying handicap in receipt of two stone from Lady Cecil’s Phaenomena. The latter beat Sir Michael Stoute’s Astonishing last season and that filly romped home next time out. Phaenomena let down her supporters next time and she looks vulnerable with ten stone first time out. Tioga Pass was stepping up in trip for the first time when winning at Kempton for Paul Cole and looks capable of improving further.

Our third and final selection is Red Refraction in the sprint for Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes. The colt by Red Clubs has a poor win to run ratio but it was difficult not to see him as a desperately unlucky loser last time at Ascot. Held up in rear, he was guided inside by Sean Levey while the winner Blessington took the opposite course.

Levey ended up having to cut through runners late on to take second but the winner had flown. That was over six furlongs but he has raced over tomorrow’s distance of seven before and this looks a soft race. If you back him, don’t expect to see Hughes appear until late on.

Red Refraction 2.50 Goodwood at 2-1 Bet365, William Hill

Tioga Pass 3.25 Goodwood at 5-1 BetVictor

Observational 4.00 Goodwood at 5-2 Bet365

Goodwood Thursday Preview

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The Oaks form of Taghrooda comes under the microscope at Goodwood tomorrow in the Height Of Fashion Stakes.

John Gosden’s filly romped to a six-length victory in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket and has been favourite for the Epsom Oaks ever since. The trainer suffered frustration in the 2000 Guineas with Kingman being beaten narrowly and will be hoping to have better luck on Oaks day.

His nearest pursuer was Luca Cumani’s Jordan Princess but at a respectful distance with Uchenna further back in fourth. It will be fascinating to see how they perform in a race that also tests the value of the Cheshire Oaks form.

Feedyah is another interesting runner having been thrashed twice by Ihtimal in Dubai. That filly is my ante-post wager for the classic and I notice that Kieren Fallon has taken over from De Sousa. There are some strange goings on with Godolphin and their jockey plans at the moment.

I watched the performance of Psychometry that day with interest and she shaped well enough. As with most of Sir Michael Stoute’s horses, she needed the run to put her straight and I will side with her to improve enough to take this. Strictly on the book, she should not beat Secret Pursuit but that filly will be having her fifth start of the season tomorrow.

There are plenty of betting opportunities on a good card and I like the chances of Emef Diamond in the 2.40. Mick Channon’s horse ran well enough at Nottingham to suggest he can feature here. There are several dark horses to worry about including Fast Delivery who won easily on the all-weather but Emef Diamond is attractively priced.

Presto Volante can land the stayers handicap for Amanda Perrett despite the money being for stable companion Lion Beacon. You have to think that Ryan Moore’s booking is significant on the latter but Presto Volante could be picked out travelling best a long way from home at Kempton and he is only up 6lbs.

The Stoute bandwagon can roll on in the 3.50 with Russian Realm, a colt out of classic winner Russian Rhythm. He may not have her class but he ought to be up to taking this. The Rectifier may be a threat after a fine run at Haydock along with Roger Charlton’s So Beloved.

Emef Diamond 2.40 Goodwood at 14-1 BetVictor

Presto Volante 3.15 Goodwood at 15-2 BetVictor

Russian Realm 3.50 Goodwood at 9-4 William Hill

Psychometry 4.25 Goodwood at 5-1 Paddy Power

Goodwood 25th September Preview

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Two out of two yesterday with Alex Vino (9-4) and Squire Osbaldeston (tipped at 5-2) keeping the profits rolling in. There are two stand-out bets on Goodwood’s card on Wednesday. On form, both should win comfortably but there are factors that could hinder the chances of either.

The first is Grandeur in the Foundation Stakes at 3.40. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old won the Hollywood Turf Cup last season and was again on his travels in August when attempting to land the Arlington Million. His chances were dealt a blow when he was given a poor draw and he subsequently suffered an injury during the race.

It was to his credit that he was able to run on as well as he did to finish a little over four lengths back in fourth behind the promoted Real Solution. On his previous start he had closed to within three-quarters of a length of the odds-on Mukhadram at York and he will be hard to beat on that form. The concern has to be whether he can bounce back from his exertions. He was accompanied to Arlington by Yeager and that horse ran as if his legs were tied together at Newmarket on Saturday.

Opposition includes Goodwood Cup winner Brown Panther, racing over a trip well short of his best in order to finalise plans for a possible Melbourne Cup tilt. Sugar Boy is a more potent threat over this trip having beaten Eye Of The Storm, Galileo Rock and Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial in April. He is on the comeback trail after running a dismal race in the Irish Derby.

The second wager is the rapidly improving Battalion*, trained by William Haggas. The three-year-old has been a revelation since getting some give in the ground and handed out a thrashing to hat-trick seeking Thomas Hobson at Yarmouth last week. He made the running under Silvestre de Sousa and the jockey could scarcely believe his eyes when glancing over at his toiling rivals. The race was over long before the final furlong and he was eased to a five-length victory.

He is running again quickly because he incurs only a 6lbs penalty whereas the handicapper will undoubtedly clobber him with at least twice that. He still has 9st 13lb to carry but the main worry is whether the ground will be soft enough for him. It is officially good to soft, soft in places, but drying out rapidly on the Sussex Downs. Providing there is enough juice left in the ground, he should provide Ryan Moore with another winner.

Grandeur 3.40 5-2 Paddy Power

Battalion 4.15 6-4 Coral (*non-runner)

 

Goodwood and Newmarket 24th August Preview

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Although most of the attention will be on the final day of the Ebor meeting at York, there are plenty of decent betting opportunities at Goodwood and Newmarket.

Anyone who saw Glen Moss cruise to success at Newbury to land a gamble last weekend will be happy to support him under a 6lb penalty in the Heritage Handicap tomorrow. I tipped him last week at 11-2 and was surprised as much by his SP of 5-2 as the ease of his victory. The confidence behind him was fully justified and I cannot let him go unbacked at around 6-1 this week.

Frankie Dettori gets the ride with the jockeys spread far and wide and he should be able to follow the pace from his draw in midfield. I am always wary of the Johnston horses in these handicap races and Galician gave Glen Moss a beating at Ascot and meets him on identical terms. The grey filly has run twice since and I’m hoping she doesn’t turn up to spoil the party.

Equally as impressive as Glen Moss was the performance of Afsare at Salisbury last time. Everyone knows that Afsare is a character having refused to enter the stalls previously and also finished second in the Arlington Million 12 months ago. If he’s on song tomorrow they won’t know which way he’s gone.

My old friends John Gosden and William Buick have a busy day lined up at Newmarket tomorrow. Fledged has already been backed off the boards before I could get my copy “to press” so there won’t be any 6-1 left by the time you read this. He looks progressive and is obviously expected to complete his hat-trick on Saturday.

Willow Beck has a similar profile and won at the course easily recently. Taayel is probably facing the toughest task of the three but is open to improvement and holds Valbchek on his last outing. The trio are worth doing in a nice patent.

Glen Moss 7-1 Bet Victor

Afsare 11-4 Bet365

Fledged 4-1 Coral

Willow Beck 2-1 Paddy Power

Taayel 4-1 Paddy Power

Goodwood Saturday Preview

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Moviesta (tipped at 9-1) and Montiridge (13-8) did us proud on day 4 of Glorious Goodwood but it could have been even better with three second place finishes. I always thought Moviesta could take the step up in class after being unlucky twice in big three-year-old handicaps and the furious gallop was right up his street.

The fact that he was pipped by Heaven’s Guest at Newmarket last time hasn’t gone unnoticed and the bookies have already trimmed his price for the Stewards’ Cup. 12-1 is now the best price for Richard Fahey’s runner but I think that still represents a bit of value. I think Moviesta would be less than half of those odds if he were running here off nine stone. Stall 22 may not be that great as the far side seem to have had the edge all week and I have similar concerns for my other selection, Shropshire.

He actually starts from the adjacent stall to Heaven’s Guest (21) but has the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle. He has been running well all season and is probably handicapped to sneak into the frame again at a top price of 14-1. I’m not tempted by the price for Tropics because it wasn’t the greatest race that he won last weekend whilst Ninjago may find them going a bit too quick early on.

The focus of attention in the Nassau Stakes will inevitably be on Sky Lantern after her unlucky defeat in the Falmouth Stakes. I think quite enough has been written about that race but it didn’t really give us any clues as to whether or not she will stay ten furlongs. It is difficult to see any of her Ascot victims reversing the form here but I think there may be some value in the older horses.

The one that stands out at the price is Godolphin’s Sajjhaa. She won four on the bounce in Meydan before finishing fourth in a Group 1 at Sha Tin. It’s anybody’s guess how fit she will be for this but you’d like to think they would have given her plenty of work. Hannon and Hughes can do no wrong this week (in stark contrast to Royal Ascot) and it would be no surprise to see Sky Lantern cruising up at the furlong marker but she’s no great value at the price.

Heaven’s Guest 12-1 (NAP) Bet365
Shropshire 14-1 Coral
Sajjhaa 11-1 Bet365

Goodwood Friday Preview

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Brown Panther got us back on the winning trail in the Goodwood Cup which sets us up nicely for a tilt at Friday’s action-packed card. Some days are not very inspiring but just about every race looks tempting with the Betfair Mile (formerly Schweppes Golden Mile) being the big betting race.

Looking back at past winners I have to say that this race owes me a few quid! My trials and tribulations go back to a horse called Desert Dirham who was then trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He was an ante-post gamble from 10-1 down to 2-1 but was drawn wide and just about brought down trying to get a run in the straight. It is not a race that you can approach with confidence, particularly if you fancy a hold up horse that is drawn high.

Stirring Ballad’s disastrous run at Royal Ascot has been well documented but, just in case you missed it, here’s a quick recap. Richard Hughes decides that he is drawn on the wrong side so takes her diagonally across the track to the stands side. He gets no room at any stage and the side he was originally on turns out to be well ahead at the finish. Less publicised was the same manoeuvre taken by Prince Of Johanne (our ante-post selection) in the same race. He came out and won the Coral Challenge next time out.

Stirring Ballad is drawn four in the Mile and should be able to tuck in behind the pace from there and deliver her challenge late. Other fancied hold up horses are Wentworth (13), Dance And Dance (1) and Cape Peron (5). I like Henry Candy’s colt a lot but I’m just a little concerned as to whether he can handle the hustle and bustle. The ground should be ideal for both horses provided it doesn’t dry out too much. With 8-1 available about both I think we should support both and hope that their jockeys sit close and don’t mess it up at the start.

The card opens with my old friend Lost In The Moment and I can’t possibly desert him after his brave victory at Newmarket. He survived getting sandwiched and whacked over the head with a whip to get up and win. On form he should not beat his stable companion Masterstroke (3rd in the Arc) but I’m staying loyal in the hope that fitness makes the difference.

Montiridge has looked a really classy performer at times and loomed up in the Jersey Stakes as if he was certain to win. His stable companion Baltic Knight is a tough customer and should make a race of it but 13-8 about reflects Montiridge’s prospects here.

The King George Stakes at 3.40 is packed full with the usual suspects over five furlongs. However, the one that I like here is Moviesta who takes a step up in grade after being pipped in two big handicaps. They just never go quick enough for him in his races and this mad downhill dash should at last give him the chance to settle. I’m also going to have a saver on Duke Of Firenze at long odds. Ryan Moore has decided that the way to ride him is not to bully him and hope that he keeps pace with the others so that he can deliver a short burst at the finish. This worked well in the Epsom Dash but went horribly wrong at Sandown last time.

Grecian looks a decent bet at 8-1 in the nursery after losing narrowly at Ascot. Paul Cole may not be in the major league these days (apart from Ascot winner Berkshire) but he can still produce a good one from time to time.

Pavlosk did us a favour when forming part of a Stoute treble at York earlier in the season. She was supplemented for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but struggled in that company. She will be much more at home here and hopefully the ground won’t be too firm for her either.

Finally, I like Goodwood Mirage in the last. He ran well enough in a competitive race at the Newmarket July meeting but gets a bit further to travel here and the assistance of Frankie Dettori. His name gives away the fact that his owners would dearly love to win at this meeting and 9-2 makes plenty of appeal.

Lost In The Moment 6-1 Totesport
Montiridge 13-8 Bet365
Stirring Ballad 8-1 Totesport
Cape Peron 8-1 William Hill
Moviesta 9-1 Paddy Power
Duke Of Firenze 18-1 William Hill
Grecian 8-1 Ladbrokes
Pavlosk 5-1 Coral
Goodwood Mirage 9-2 Bet365