Tag: Grand National

Grand National 2015 – Aintree News Update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Aintree Grand National is less than two weeks away now and the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a massive gamble on Tony McCoy’s expected mount, Shutthefrontdoor. We forecast this over a month ago and recommended taking the 20-1 about last year’s Irish National winner. He is now as short as 6-1 in places, generally 7-1.

Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been sending out mixed signals, understandably starting to feel the pressure of supplying McCoy’s final ride in the race. There have been heavy hints that the champion jockey will call time immediately on his riding career if he passes the post in front on April 11th.

All three of our other recommended each-way bets remain in contention. Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes are both now 20-1 from 33-1 while Monbeg Dude remains 33-1 after a poor prep run. Soft ground may improve the chances of Monbeg Dude, otherwise we may see him drift further in the betting.

Rocky Creek spearheads the Paul Nicholls runners and he could be joined by Unioniste, Rebel Rebellion and Mon Parrain. Last year’s runner-up Balthazar King is certain to be popular having by-passed Cheltenham this year in an attempt to go one better.

Aidan Coleman has been booked to ride the well-fancied The Druids Nephew after both Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell were ruled out through injury. It would be poetic justice for Coleman were he to pick up a spare ride and win the race, having chosen the wrong horse when Mon Mome won at 100-1 in 2009 under Liam Treadwell.

Alvarado will be bidding to continue the extraordinary run of the Rucker family who have been placed in the last six Grand Nationals, all ridden by Paul Moloney. He has had only one race since finishing fourth last year and is currently a top price of 25-1 with Coral.

I am surprised that both Lord Windermere and Many Clouds are heading to Aintree after running poorly in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Leighton Aspell has been claimed to ride Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood, leaving Daryl Jacob to take the ride on last year’s winner Pineau De Re. Lord Windermere ran a lifeless race at the festival and is burdened with top weight here with Robbie McNamara taking the ride.

Nina Carberry will ride First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris in a bid to become the first lady jockey to win the race. Katie Walsh has come closest so far, finishing third on Seabass in 2012.

Several firms are already offering five places in the National for each-way betting. They are: Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, BetVictor, Paddy Power, 888Sport, Betfair and 32Red.

Grand National – 74 remain after latest declaration stage

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There are 74 horses remaining in the £1million Aintree Grand National on April 11th after thirteen were taken out on Tuesday.

As expected, Carlingford Lough was withdrawn after a disappointing run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Also out are: Rolling Aces, Alderwood, Boston Bob, Shotgun Paddy, Theatrical Star, Roi Du Mee, Katenko, Living Next Door, Make A Track, Prince De Beauchene, Cedre Bleu and Buddy Bolero.

The good news for followers of our ante-post advice is that Monbeg Dude has been given the all-clear despite a poor run at Cheltenham. Connections could find nothing wrong with the horse physically and have decided that he resented the tongue-strap which will not be used at Aintree.

Our other selections also remain in contention with Shutthefrontdoor, Spring Heeled and Cause Of Causes all prominent in the betting. We highlighted the chance of Shutthefrontdoor prior to Cheltenham and his price has collapsed from 20-1 to 8-1. Champion jockey Tony McCoy will almost certainly be on board the favourite and has said that victory in the race may well be the perfect time to retire.

Spring Heeled (tipped at 33-1) is now a top priced 20-1 for Jim Culloty who still has top weight Lord Windermere entered in the race. Jockey Davy Russell has joined Barry Geraghty on the side lines through injury while Bryan Cooper is suspended. Russell revealed earlier this week that Culloty had removed him from the ride on Lord Windermere after his poor run in the Gold Cup. He became detached soon after the start and was eventually pulled up. The ground had gone against him on the day but Culloty clearly was not satisfied with Russell’s performance.

Paul Nicholls intends to run all six of his remaining entries headed by Rocky Creek and Unioniste. Rocky Creek looks the obvious pick after finishing fifth last year and putting up a lifetime best to win at Kempton last time out. Unioniste could yet emerge as one of the gambles of the race if the going becomes soft.

Last week we added Cause Of Causes to our portfolio at 33-1 and he is now a top price 20-1. He also races in the JP McManus colours carried by Shutthefrontdoor.

If you have not yet had a bet on the race, look out for non-runner – no bet terms. Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James and Betfair are already offering this provision.

Grand National Ante-post update

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With the excitement of Cheltenham over for another year, we can start looking forward to Aintree and the Grand National on April 11th.

There were a number of National contenders in action at the festival last week but they did not include current Aintree favourite Shutthefrontdoor. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill decided against running his Irish National winner, presumably on account of the quicker ground. He will almost certainly be the mount of Tony McCoy, his last in the race before retirement. If the champion jockey was humbled by the adulation he received at Cheltenham, what will it be like should he ride the National winner? He has said that he has no specific date/race in mind for his final ride but going out on a National winner would be hard to top.

We put up the horse at 20-1 a few weeks ago and he is now as short as 8-1 favourite. We also singled out Spring Heeled at 33-1 and the Irish raider has been clipped to a top price of 20-1 after a satisfactory comeback. Jim Culloty’s Lord Windermere was scuppered by the going change on Gold Cup day so I would not be too concerned if you snapped up some 33’s about his stable companion for Aintree.

Our third ante-post pick was Monbeg Dude and he was disappointing at Cheltenham, finishing well behind The Druids Nephew. He is apparently being tested to see if they can find a problem but it may be that the ground was just too fast for him. He does tend to get detached, even in soft ground, so he could yet be a factor at Aintree if we get a wet April.

The Druids Nephew was cut to 14-1 for the National but it was another race which caught my attention with regards to the big race. Cause Of Causes finally gained a first win over the larger obstacles when winning the National Hunt Chase under Jamie Codd. His rider had him tucked away behind the leaders all the way and produced him late on to hold Broadway Buffalo.

He races in the same colours as Shutthefrontdoor so it will be interesting to see who gets the ride. Codd did pick up a suspension for marking the horse but went on to land a second winner at the meeting and would seem the logical choice for Aintree. Cause Of Causes has 10st 9lb to carry in the National and the 33-1 on offer with William Hill looks worth snapping up. He is as short as 20-1 elsewhere.

Cause Of Causes @33-1 William Hill

Grand National 2015 ante-post update

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The weights were announced on Tuesday for the Aintree Grand National and there were no real surprises. As expected, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere (11st 12lb) is at the top of the handicap alongside recent Irish Hennessy winner Carlingford Lough. Both horses are on target for the festival and I don’t expect either of them to line up at Liverpool.

Many Clouds is next on 11st 9lb and his participation will also depend on what happens at next month’s festival. Paul Nicholls is quite keen on the chances of Unioniste (11st 6lb) but he could end up shouldering top weight and really needs soft ground to show his best.

After Tony McCoy announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season, I highlighted the prospect of Shutthefrontdoor being the gamble of the race. Jonjo O’Neill’s Irish National winner was 20-1 at the time and has now been slashed to half those odds. If you did not get on early, I would not rush out to take the current odds.

Our other ante-post selections were Spring Heeled and Monbeg Dude (both tipped at 33-1). The former is likely to return to action this weekend at either Fairyhouse or Kempton. Connections have been avoiding running him so as to protect his handicap mark and he has been allocated 10st 12lb at Aintree. That looks a perfect racing weight and Jim Culloty will be happy to see him jump round safely in third or fourth this weekend.

I was not at all dismayed to see Monbeg Dude well beaten in the Haydock Grand National Trial on Saturday. He ran in the same race two years ago and came from another county to sneak into the frame. He is 2lbs better off than last year when finishing seventh in the big race and will know more about those big fences this time. Although his best form is on soft, it is not essential and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking any 33-1 that remains about him.

Pineau De Re and Balthazar King are back again after filling the first two places last year. The winner is up 8lbs but you’d have to expect that. I think that everything fell into place for him last season after that eye-catching run over hurdles at the festival. He will need to show something at the meeting again this year to warrant support.

Our Ante-post Portfolio;

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1 William Hill

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power

Bookies braced for McCoy factor

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A busy racing weekend was completely overshadowed when Champion jockey Tony McCoy announced that he would be retiring at the end of the season.

Although there had been rumours of McCoy hanging up his riding boots for some time, the media seemed to be taken completely off guard following the victory of Mr Mole in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Most eyes had been on former two-mile champion chaser Sire de Grugy who had blotted his copybook when unseating Jamie Moore. Even the day’s feature race, the Betfair Hurdle, was run in a strangely subdued atmosphere as racing tried to absorb the news.

McCoy, or “AP” as he is widely known, will be crowned champion jockey for the 20th consecutive time at the end of the season. Considering the high risk nature of his job, that is nothing short of remarkable. He has had his share of injuries over the years but has kept coming back for more. He has been part and parcel of the National Hunt scene for so long that he is bound to be sorely missed.

In the meantime, the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a surge of support for McCoy’s mounts for the rest of the campaign. His win on Carlingford Lough on Sunday gave us a taste of what to expect if, and when, he boots home a winner at the Cheltenham festival and Aintree. His Hennessy win was a vintage McCoy ride, recovering from a mistake to drive back up to his rivals and grind out an unlikely victory.

Carlingford Lough has already been cut to as short at 8-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup while he remains a more realistic 12-1 with William Hill. Shuttthefrontdoor is currently joint-favourite for the Grand National at 20-1. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill is planning on running him in the Gold Cup as well but Aintree is his number one target.

When McCoy ended his 15-year wait for a Grand National winner on Don’t Push It in 2010, bookmakers estimated that the champ had cost them around £50million. If Shutthefrontdoor gets to the National with McCoy in the saddle, he will almost certainly start favourite. Were he to end his career on such a high note, it would rate alongside the greatest racing memories like Dawn Run, Desert Orchid and Red Rum. It couldn’t possibly happen could it?

Carlingford Lough – Cheltenham Gold Cup @12-1 William Hill

Shutthefrontdoor – Grand National @20-1 William Hill

Spring Heeled value at 33-1 for Grand National

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The all-weather racing may help to keep business ticking over in the betting shops but it’s no substitute for action on the turf. The recent cold snap has been eating into the fixture list but it does free up some time to look further ahead.

The entries for the 2015 Grand National were announced today with 98 horses taking the first step towards adding their names to the Aintree Hall of Fame. Pineau De Re already has his name etched into the history books after his great victory last season. Unfortunately I was not among his supporters as I was not entirely convinced that finishing third in a hurdle race at Cheltenham was an ideal prep race.

Dr Richard Newland knew better and he is adopting a similar policy this year. The horse has failed to sparkle in his first two outings but may bid to get on the comeback trail at Devon this weekend. Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor has been among the market leaders since winning the Irish National but is now being challenged for favouritism by Unioniste.

I have a lot of time for the Paul Nicholls-trained grey but I just wonder if he has ruined his handicap mark with that win at Sandown last month. He has gone up 11lbs for that victory to 159 and he could even end up with top weight. Many Clouds (165) has been given an entry but I would imagine he would only run here if he was an early faller in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I fancy Monbeg Dude to run a big race this year after finishing seventh on his first attempt. I regarded him as something of a mud lark after his Welsh National success but he proved he is better than that by winning a decent prize at Cheltenham on good ground. He has run two super trials at Newbury and Chepstow and is unlikely to do too much between now and Aintree.

The other one that catches my eye is the Irish hope Spring Heeled. Apart from being very appropriately named, he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in March when holding of Cause Of Causes. He was a fair fifth in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and his only run since was when fourth in the Galway Plate in the summer. Jim Culloty is no mug and he will have been protecting Spring Heeled’s handicap mark before the weights come out. I cannot see his mark going much above 150 which will give him a good racing weight.

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4