Tag: Grand National

Grand National Update

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Trainers are still formulating plans for next week’s Aintree Grand National but some of the leading bookmakers are now offering NR – no bet. This development in recent years, particularly ahead of the Cheltenham festival, has transformed the ante-post betting market.

We can now bet ahead of the major events without the fear of waking up the next morning to find that your horse has been withdrawn. Naturally, the bookies do tend to trim the odds a little to off-set the risk but there is still some great value to be had.

Our long term bets on the Grand National are all still in contention. Teaforthree has more than halved in price since the weights came out while Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude are still on course for the race. Godsmejudge has pulled up twice but has contracted in price to a general 20-1 from 33-1. Trainer Alan King is a master of his trade and if anyone can get him back to his Ayr form it is he.

I would also like to add Big Shu to my ante-post portfolio with the NR-no bet proviso. I have not heard any news about his likely participation, although I do know that his trainer is reluctant to risk him unless the going is soft. He failed in his bid to win the Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham festival for the second successive year. However, he lost little in defeat when a close third to the tough Balthazar King.

I like Paul Carberry as a jockey but he may have slightly overdone the waiting tactics that day. Big Shu made ground rapidly to join the leaders with three to jump but his effort fizzled out behind Balthazar King and the enigmatic Any Currency. He was only beaten a short head and three lengths on ground that was probably a bit too quick for him.

Balthazar King ran well for a long way in the National last year but he was absolutely legless at the finish and I just don’t see it as a suitable race for him. Philip Hobbs may yet be tempted to give him another try, especially if the going is fast. Maher has already indicated that he was delighted with the 10st 8lb allocated to his horse who defied a massive 12st 3lb in the La Touche Cup last season.

Big Shu at 33-1 Totesport, Boylesports (NR – No Bet)

Haydock Grand National Trial Preview

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The weights were announced today for the Aintree Grand National on April 5th. This means that trainers can now stop attempting to pull the wool over the handicapper’s eyes as the die is cast!

The handicapper has decided to be lenient to the 13-year-old Tidal Bay and has reduced his rating to keep him closer to his rivals, albeit with top weight of 11st 10lb. It is not only the weight but also the fact that no horse of his age has won the National for over 90 years.

You cannot criticise his performances this season with a gallant third in the Welsh National under 11st 12lb and a good second to Last Instalment in the Irish Hennessy on Sunday. You could see him finishing third or fourth in the Gold Cup but Paul Nicholls has decided to go for the National and good luck to them.

Saturday’s Grand National Trial at Haydock has attracted several leading National hopes, none more so than Michael Scudamore’s Monbeg Dude. He was beaten a country mile in this last year by Well Refreshed and is 7lbs better off Gary Moore’s gelding. In terms of subsequent form, they have gone in opposite directions. Monbeg Dude won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last time whereas Well Refreshed was pulled up in the Welsh National.

Moore has reported that Well Refreshed returned a sick horse from Chepstow and that his work and tests will decide his participation this week. I really fancied him in the Welsh National but it is difficult to be confident after such a poor run. You would have to side with Monbeg Dude who has 10st 9lb in the National and could be the clear favourite if he wins this.

Venetia Williams could run last year’s runner-up Rigadin De Beauchene and Ffos Las winner Emperor’s Choice. The former has not run for a long time and will surely be found out on this ground while Emperor’s Choice landed a nice gamble last time but this looks a much tougher task.

The big danger to Monbeg Dude looks to be Hawkes Point who ran a great race at Chepstow, just failing to catch Mountainous. The form of the race is difficult to assess but Tidal Bay was just behind him and ran well in Ireland. Nicholls has not enjoyed the best of luck in recent weeks with several of his stable stars beaten but you’d have to consider Hawkes Point a major contender here.

He, along with Merry King and Godsmejudge, are also entered at Ascot but you would imagine Nicholls will go for the stronger trial. Three miles at Ascot may not be sufficient a stamina test for this out-and-out stayer.

Monbeg Dude at 7-1 William Hill

Hawkes Point at 8-1 Boylesports, Unibet, 888Sport

Grand National ante-post update

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The Grand National may seem a long way off with the excitement still building towards the Cheltenham festival but the entries were announced today. 115 horses have been entered for the £1million race including Tidal Bay and Long Run as expected.

This is good news for our earlier selections Triolo D’Alene and Monbeg Dude as it means they will get in with 11st or less to carry. There are no real surprises in the list other than perhaps the number of older horses that are still being entered. One who won’t be there is last year’s 66-1 winner Aurora’s Encore after he suffered a nasty injury last weekend.

He’s been operated on for a fracture to his off-fore and all racing fans will be hoping that he makes a good recovery and gets the retirement that he deserves. I was a little surprised that he was kept in training this year. Neptune Collonges was promptly retired after his gallant success and it would have been nice to see Aurora’s Encore given the same courtesy.

Triolo D’Alene

Nicky Henderson’s Triolo D’Alene was installed as favourite after winning the Hennessy in November but hasn’t reappeared since. He was due to run at Ascot and Cheltenham but Henderson decided not to risk him on the heavy ground. He was not that happy with the 11lbs rise in the handicap after Newbury but he seems to be making sure that it doesn’t go any higher. I’d be surprised if we see him before the weights come out on February 11th.

The Hennessy form was not exactly franked by Rocky Creek’s defeat last weekend but I don’t believe  he was at his best. Paul Nicholls believes that a setback after Newbury took the edge off him and  he probably just blew up in the closing stages.

Monbeg Dude

At the start of the season I thought that Monbeg Dude would need heavy ground to win a National and that he may be on the small side for the big fences. I changed my mind after his impressive win at Cheltenham last time out where he jumped well and won a shade cosily on good to soft ground. He is still available at 25-1 in places and that seems a fair price for a Welsh National winner.

Godsmejudge

I’d like to put up Godsmejudge as my third early fancy for the race at 33-1 with Coral. He was pulled up last time at Sandown but the stable has been laid low with a virus and it seems safe to ignore that run. He had previously run very well at Cheltenham and he could provide Alan King with his first National success.

He really attacked his fences at Ayr when winning the Scottish National and he looks a proper Aintree sort if King can get him there in one piece.

*ante-post Triolo D’Alene 20-1

*ante-post Monbeg Dude 25-1

Godsmejudge at 33-1 Coral

Racing Preview – Saturday 14th December

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All of our selections ran well on Friday but only Oscar Whisky emerged as a winner. Full credit to Wonderful Charm for putting up a game effort trying to concede 8lbs. Both horses look to have a bright future over fences.

I must admit to being surprised by Monbeg Dude coming to beat Theatre Guide. I had mistakenly believed that he really needed soft ground to be at his best but clearly he can cope with anything in this grade. I don’t think that I will be rushing to back him at 20-1 for the Grand National though as he is a bit on the small side and could find it difficult to lay up on the first circuit.

Not that size is everything at Aintree as old Sunnyhillboy reminded us when winning the staying hurdle under AP McCoy. He was so unlucky to be pipped by Neptune Collonges a couple of years ago but was well beaten when departing at the last this time around.

There is a disappointing turnout for the supporting card at Cheltenham on Saturday with The New One having only Zarkandar as a realistic opponent in the International Hurdle and a miserable turnout of just four for the Relkeel Hurdle. I’d have to question the race planners on having Grade 2 two-mile and two and a half-mile hurdle races on the same card. You could easily merge the fields to make one decent race!

Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron were my choices for the December Gold Cup earlier in the week and I still cannot split them. I can’t help feeling that Easter Meteor is over-priced at 16-1 so am going to have a little each-way on him too.

There are more interesting betting races over at Doncaster and I’m going to have a flutter on Ted Spread at 12-1. He won the Chester Vase in 2010 before beating only one home in the Epsom Derby. Clearly he showed Paul Nicholls something at home as he was heavily backed for races like the County Hurdle and Imperial Cup but failed to deliver the goods.

He is now with Suzy Smith and this might be the time to catch him. It wouldn’t be the first time a horse has been transformed by a change of stables.

I also like the look of Bear’s Affair in the handicap chase for Nicky Henderson. The Lambourn maestro is sending a strong team up north including Triumph hope Royal Irish Hussar and I wouldn’t be surprised if he bagged a few winners. Bear’s Affair has come up against Le Bec and Wonderful Charm, arguably two of the best staying novices seen so far this season. He won at Kempton last time and is only up 4lbs for this.

*Ante-post Colour Squadron 6-1

*Ante-post Johns Spirit 13-2

(each-way) Easter Meteor at 16-1 BetBright

Ted Spread 12-1 Bet365

Bear’s Affair 4-1 William Hill

Welsh National Ante-Post Preview

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The Hennessy Gold Cup provided us with a 25-1 winner in Triolo D’Alene on Saturday and I believe that it may also have given us a clue to the outcome of the Welsh National.

Trying to second guess the running plans of the leading National Hunt stables is a gamble in itself but we got it right with Nicky Henderson’s runner. Apparently jockey Barry Geraghty had been pleading with the Lambourn trainer to keep Triolo D’Alene for the Grand National but he’s likely to be faced with a steep rise in the weights now. Geraghty tried to convince a group of journalists that a 3-4lb rise would be sufficient for Saturday’s victory but the general consensus is that he will go up by 10lbs.

There is one potential loophole for Henderson and that is the possibility of running Long Run. As a former Gold Cup winner he would automatically get top weight and Triolo D’Alene might get in off around 11 stone. As a previous winner of the Becher Chase, he has got a proper Aintree pedigree so I’m going to invest a little of Saturday’s winnings at 20-1 for Aintree.

Moving on to the prospect of a slog around Chepstow over Christmas and my eye-catcher from Newbury was Merry King. Jonjo O’Neill is a great supporter of the Welsh National and won it with Mini Sensation and Synchronised. In Merry King I believe that he as another ideal candidate.

I first noted him last season when he produced a gutsy display to finish second in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock. He refused to give in and just kept battling away right to the line, losing out on the nod to Cannington Brook. On his seasonal debut he ran on from midfield to finish second to Houblon Des Obeaux with Triolo D’Alene behind in third.

I always wondered if he would quite have the pace for the Hennessy and he was outpaced when they turned for home, plugging on at the one pace to finish fifth. The only horse that put up a more promising run with regards to the Welsh National was Rocky Creek but connections have stated their intention to run him in the Lexus Chase instead.

Another stable with multiple options is the in-form yard of Lucinda Russell. She has Silver By Nature and Nuts N Bolts entered and both ran well at Haydock recently. It appears that she is leaning towards running the former in Ireland but Nuts N Bolts would also be a leading contender here. Sydney Paget is the early favourite after winning easily at Haydock but he has gone up in the weights and is another with alternative engagements.

Grand National – Triolo D’Alene 20-1 Bet365, Coral

Welsh National – Merry King 14-1 Bet365, Coral

Grand National Day Betting Tips

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This is our day at the bookies on the Grand National Day. It starts with an egg and bacon roll and a nice cup of tea. Then we head to the sofa and crack on researching our bets for the day. So we are going to share our Chicken Dinners today and give you our insight into what we are putting our cash on.

Aintree EW bet.

1 Utopie Des Bordes – 1.45 Aintree
2 Alderwood 2.15 – Aintree
3 Celestial Halo – 2.50 Aintree
4 Storm Survivor – 3.25 Aintree
5 Lost Glory – 4.15 Aintree
6 Local Hero – 5.10 Aintree

Aintree Double

Up & Go 1:45 Aintree & Solwhit 2:50 Aintree

Aintree Grand National singles

TeaForThree, Treacle, Imperial Commander, Quel Espirt, Always Waining, Seabass

Daily Double

Greenhead High 1:35 Newcastle & Up & Go 1:45 Aintree

Football Bets – Both Teams to Score.

1 Reading v Southhampton
2 Norwich City v Swansea City
3 West Brom v Arsenal
4 Watford v Cardiff
5 Coventry City v Brentford
6 Ayr United v Alloa
7 Stranraer v Brechin City

1 Reading v Southampton
2 Norwich v Swansea
3 Milton Keynes Dons v Crawley Town
4 York v Accrington Stanley
5 Bolton v Wolverhampton
6 Stoke v Aston Villa
7 Coventry v Brentford

Scoop6 Betting

1 Utopie Des Bordes (7) 1.45 Aintree 3 Places To Run
2 Alderwood (1) 2.15 Aintree 2 Places
3 Wildomar (8) 2.25 Lingfield 3 Places
4 Solwhit (12) 2.50 Aintree 3 Places
5 Cantlow (4) 3.25 Aintree 4 Places
6 Seabass (6) 4.15 Aintree 4 Places
Ballabriggs (9)
Teaforthree (10)
Cappa Bleu (18)