Tag: Grand National

Grand National – Saturday 6th April 2013 Tips

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Well ladies and gents, today is Grand National day, and i for one, couldn’t a flying expletive.

Don’t get me wrong, as a spectacle, it’s great. As a betting proposition, it’s horrible. I’m going to stick to horses i have more of a read on, as opposed to trying to find the winner of the yearly equine lottery.

Greenhead High – 1:35 Newcastle – NAP 2-1 Bet365

Pass the fire extinguisher, this horse is on fucking fire. After a successful AW campaign Greenhead High came out on turf last time (Previous best placing was 3rd) and won in decisive fashion. The draw is a concern, and the extra weight is a concern, but i have got a soft spot for a horse that can dominate all weather, then head to turf and continue the trend. He obviously likes the ground and although he has an extra 6lbs to carry, he firmly put two of todays rivals (Roy’s Legacy & Pull The Pin) in their places last time. Roy’s legacy who finished 2nd that day has an extra 5lbs to carry, a weight he’s only managed to win off once.

Greenhead High won off 10-6 three runs ago, 10-2 two starts ago..

Decent Fella – 17:25 Lingfield – NB – 9/2 Bet365

Now, i feel dirty next besting this. But i was alerted on Twitter earlier as to a potential dirty plot being setup by Violet Jordan, the dodgiest, and Rakebackmypoker who own the horse. This horse has run over a wide range of different trips to what it’s used to, and is now back to a distance he’s won at, and at a weight he’s won off.. This could go horribly wrong, but if we know Violet Jordan like we do, we feel this was obviously one big plan to win here today. Two years ago it won a class 3 event at Newmarket, and came 5th in the Buckingham Palace stakes at Royal Ascot, but has done very little since, hmmmm…

UPDATE Oh look, what a surprise, Decent Fella has been withdrawn..

Time for a quick replacement:

Up & Go – 13:45 Aintree – NB – 2/1 Paddy Power

I’ve won some decent money on this beast so he owes me nothing, but as a replacement for Decent Fella he’ll be my NB. In Feburary this horse demolished a decent class 2 field that included the ceaserwitch winner Aim To Prosper. Today he takes on a proven class 1 winner in Dodging Bullets who will find this lineup easier to beat than before, but he hasnt really shown his class over his last few runs, so hes a live danger. Uptoie Des Bordes was one of my Cheltenham Antepost selections and she ultimatly disappointed despite finishing 5th behind At Fishers Cross. She’s a group 1 winner in france, so rates as a real danger if she puts her best foot forward, but I’m more than happy to stick by Up & Go.

Grand National Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

I’m pleased to be back in profit after a successful day 2 at Aintree. I hope that a few of you took a chance on the four-timer! Both of Alan King’s hurdlers rewarded each-way support at nice prices and only Tartak let the side down when tipping up in the Topham. Now for the big one!

I’ve long been a fan of On His Own for the Grand National and I see no reason to desert him at this stage. The 10-1 on offer with William Hill still looks like a fair bet to me. He probably would have liked a bit more rain as he did seem to be slowly away last year. Having said that, he could hardly have a better pilot than Ruby Walsh and he should be able to keep him in touch. I’ve also advised a little of the 40-1 each-way on Always Waining. Trainer Peter Bowen seems a little pessimistic about his chances of staying the trip but he is well used to the hurly burly of the National course and those odds are too good to pass up.

After Nicky Henderson fired off another four winners on Friday, you have to take him seriously when he suggests that Roberto Goldback is not without a chance. Henderson is too good a trainer to run horses in the National just for the sake of it and the horse definitely has the ground in his favour. He ran sweetly for Barry Geraghty at Ascot first time out and if he is that sort of mood the 33-1 with Coral might be worth a punt.

Friday’s card was all about favourites but Saturday looks far more testing. The Maghull Novices’ Chase at 2.15 will show whether Baily Green is as good as his Arkle second to Simonsig suggests. Overturn was on a hiding to nothing that day but will find this easier track much more to his liking and Alderwood steps out of handicap company after winning the Grand Annual. Whilst all three have obvious chances, the better value bet may be to take a chance on Sire De Grugy at 8-1. He was a decent hurdler but has always had the scope to make a chaser and, unlike his rivals, does not come here after a hard race at the festival.

The Grade 1 John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle over three miles puts the World Hurdle form under the spotlight with Solwhit, Celestial Halo and Smad Place meeting again. I expect the placings to be confirmed but I am more interested in Alan King’s Medinas, winner of the Coral Cup at the festival. He may be built like a pony but he has the heart of a lion and defied 11st 10lb at the festival under a great ride from Wayne Hutchinson. With Smad Place being the stable number one, Richard Johnson steps in for the ride and I’m hopeful that he can make it into the first three. Odds of 14-1 seems terrific each-way value. I also have a healthy respect for African Gold but he looks like a chaser in the making and may find this course a bit sharp.

On His Own 10-1 William Hill
Always Waining 40-1 Paddy Power
Roberto Goldback 33-1 Coral
Sire De Grugy 8-1 Bet365
Medinas 14-1 Paddy Power

Aintree Festival Tips – Friday 5th April 2013

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Great day for us on Thursday! Cheeky double landed again. Lets see if we can continue the winning trend.

Broadway Buffalo– 16:50 Aintree – NAP 8-1 Skybet

This horse has been a bit of a revelation over the last 6 months. He started life out in a Worcester maiden and has since gone on to win 5 races on the bounce. Undefeated. He won last time as top weight in a class 4 race at Plumpton at 39 lengths. He’s been around Aintree before at 2m 1f, so is familiar with the course. This race is wide open to be honest, with the likes of Cheltenham Festival winner Salubrious and County Hurdle flop Cotton Mill.

He could progress further and is an unknown quantity in terms of racing in Listed company, but you just never know.. will be interesting.

Rathvawn Belle – 17:25 Aintree – NP 20-1 Bet365

Bit of a stab in the dark here, we’ve only got 1 race to go on. Rathvawn Belle won a Punchestown maiden quite easily on debut at an un-fancied 33-1. It then changed hands and joined the Lucinda Russell yard for 45,000£. The 2nd from that maiden (25-1 shot) won next time out beating the supported Aerlite Supreme at limerick, nothing else from the race has won however(front two well enough clear, so not surprising). I’d advise small stakes here, based on Thursdays results, it wouldn’t suprise me if some big prices win today.

Grand National meeting Day 2 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Two races into the opening day and I was already putting a line through it and looking ahead to Friday’s card! In my opening day preview I had forgotten to mention that sometimes horses go backwards after running at Cheltenham. It is on days like these that you take comfort from the fact that the flat season will be getting into top gear shortly.

Friday’s card features the reappearance of Sprinter Sacre, the horse that has been the subject of more hype than any jumper in recent memory. He has coped with it admirably so far, winning the Arkle Trophy easily last year and then sauntering to victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last month. The problem is that there doesn’t appear to be anything around that can give him a race. Lining up against him on Friday are Ryanair Chase winner Cue Card and the Irish challenger Flemenstar. Cue Card was put in his place by Sprinter Sacre last season and Flemenstar is dropping back in trip after failing to stay three miles. The field also contains last year’s Champion two-miler in Finian’s Rainbow, finally getting the chance to race on a decent surface after floundering in the heavy going on his most recent outings.

The two and a half mile trip has been put up as a possible reason for Sprinter Sacre to be beaten but I don’t see it. Aintree is a flat turning track and the better ground is not going to make this a stamina test. The race does not offer much in the way of a betting contest but I’m sure that the hype will go into overdrive once again tomorrow.

Nicky Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours is odds-on to atone for his Cheltenham defeat in the opener and Dynaste (2.30) is also on a recovery mission after finishing second in the Jewson. Both horses cruised into the home straight at the festival but found one too good in the closing stages. At Fishers Cross is aiming for a sixth consecutive victory later in the 4.15, although trainer Rebecca Curtis will be anxious to make sure that there is sufficient give in the ground. With so many short-priced favourites on the card it could be a difficult day to eke out a profit. Perhaps one of those generous bookies will be offering enhanced terms on all four hot pots?

If you fancy a better price for your money, The Topham Trophy (3.40) and The John Smith’s Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap (4.50) might be more to your liking. The Topham won’t quite be the same without Always Waining. He has won it for the last three years but will be going for the Grand National on Saturday. Races over the National fences are so few and far between that it’s difficult to be confident but I may have an each-way interest in Tartak here. He ran a good race at Cheltenham when finishing third behind Carrick Boy and he did win at this meeting in 2009. Alan King has his horses in fine form and poses a problem by saddling both Meister Eckhart and Manyrivertocross in the 4.50. Both ran well at the festival and look worthy of each-way support.

Accumulator: My Tent Or Yours, Dynaste, Sprinter Sacre, At Fishers Cross

Tartak 14-1 Skybet, William Hill
Meister Eckhart 10-1 Bet365
Manyrivertocross 14-1 Bet365

Grand National Meeting Day 1 Preview

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In theory, picking winners at Aintree is a lot easier than picking winners at Cheltenham. The fields tend to be smaller and the Cheltenham festival form ought to stand up. Of course it is not always that simple but it is a reasonable place to start.

The opening race of the meeting Liverpool’s version of the Triumph Hurdle. There is no Our Conor on show here but disappointing favourite Rolling Star bids to redeem his reputation. Nicky Henderson’s French import was sent off 5-2 favourite for the Triumph but never really looked like justifying the plunge. Even allowing for the exceptional winner, it was surprising that he could do no better than sixth place. On his previous outing he had beaten the Paul Nicholls-trained Irish Saint by two and a quarter lengths and that horse has been saved for this meeting. Nicholls had been considering going for a 2 ½ mile novice event with him and I just wonder whether he will have enough pace for Aintree’s flat two miles. although there is a question mark about whether he will be fast enough over 2 miles here. Flaxen Flare won the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle decisively but had been well beaten on his two previous starts.

Silviniaco Conti looks like nap material in the Betfred Bowl (2.30). He looked certain to be involved in the finish of the Gold Cup before he fell at the third last and he also has winning form at Aintree. Nicholls had been quite bullish about his prospects before the race and had always emphasised that he would come on a great deal for his victory at Newbury. Had he stood up, I’m sure he would have finished ahead of The Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation at the festival. Mouse Morris wanted to run First Lieutenant in the Gold Cup and the horse was left flat footed by Cue Card in the Ryanair. He may again have to settle for second place.

The Aintree Hurdle (3.05) looks like being a classic but I’m staying loyal to Champion Hurdle form with Countrywide Flame. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner ran a fine third at the festival and holds Zarkandar on that form. Nicholls is applying blinkers to the latter whilst Grandouet is difficult to weigh up after an early fall in the Champion. I am surprised that The New One is the ante-post favourite and am yet to be convinced that he is a Champion hurdler. I still think that anything over 4-1 is a steal for Countrywide Flame.

I don’t usually bet on Hunter Chase races and I’ll be giving The Foxhunters Chase (3.40) a swerve. Nicky Henderson has chances in the last three races with Kid Cassidy (4.15), Captain Conan (4.50) and Ericht (5.25). Kid Cassidy finished second to Alderwood in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham but has to carry top weight here. I haven’t previously been a fan of Captain Conan but I thought he ran a good race behind Benefficient whilst Ericht finished fifth in a huge field in the Coral Hurdle. It could be worth putting them together with Rolling Star in the hope that the Henderson team has a field day. Stranger things have happened!

Silviniaco Conti (Nap) Even money with Totesport
Countrywide Flame (n.b.) 9-2 with Paddy Power

Henderson Super Yankee:
Rolling Star 5-2 with Bet Victor
Kid Cassidy 13-2 with Totesport
Captain Conan 15-8 with William Hill
Ericht 14-1 with Bet365

Grand National Week 2013 – A Few Early Pointers

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Having spent much of the last week shovelling snow just north of the border, it is hard to believe that they are actually watering the course at Aintree ahead of this week’s Grand National meeting! The entire jumping season to date seems to have been run on soft or heavy ground and it is slightly worrying that we could even have good ground by Thursday. That can sometimes turn the form on its head but you cannot ignore Cheltenham form at this meeting.

The Grand National is obviously the highlight of the week but there is a cracking supporting cast. The Aintree Hurdle is shaping up to be an exceptional race. Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars have battled out the finish for the past two seasons but they are up against stiff opposition this week. Countrywide Flame finished third in the Champion Hurdle with Zarkandar fourth and Grandouet falling when still going well under Barry Geraghty. The final ingredient is supplied by impressive Neptune Novices’ Hurdle winner The New One. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is convinced that his horse will be a leading Champion Hurdle contender next year and he has been made favourite to win here.

I have been a fan of Countrywide Flame for some time and I thought he put in a great effort behind Hurricane Fly last time. As much as I respect the opposition, I think odds of around 5-1 are an insult to John Quinn’s gelding and I fancy him to gain a well deserved success.

Sprinter Sacre is due to run over 2 1/2 miles in the Melling Chase and is up against two smart performers in Cue Card and Flemenstar. I don’t have any doubts about Sprinter Sacre proving equally effective over this distance but his odds reflect his superiority over his rivals. Unless the bookies offer some generous odds on winning distances later in the week, I think this will be a race to watch rather than bet on.

One of the banker bets of the meeting must surely be Silviniaco Conti after his desperately unlucky fall in the Gold Cup. Ruby Walsh found the seven-year-old travelling almost too well throughout the race and he must surely have given Bobs Worth something to think about if he had stood up. He flew around the Mildmay Course last season and The Betfred Bowl looks his for the taking.

Big priced winners of The Lincoln and The Irish National are timely reminders of what we could be up against when betting on the big race on Saturday. On His Own looks likely to go off favourite having won over hurdles on his only start since falling last year. Having watched the re-run of last year’s race, there is no denying that he appeared to be going as well as anything when he crashed out at Bechers second time around. My only slight worry was that he seemed to get some way behind early on. He probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much but is a worthy favourite and I’m taking him to give the punters something to cheer about.

I have plenty of respect for Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu (2nd, 3rd and 4th) but they all seem to be high enough in the weights. I was most impressed with Imperial Commander’s comeback run in the Argento Chase and it must have been incredibly frustrating for connections to miss out on his run in the Gold Cup. He adds a touch of class to the race whilst Always Waining looks overpriced at 40-1 for a horse that runs a stone better at Liverpool than anywhere else. Trainer Peter Bowen is keeping an eye on the weather and could yet send him for the Topham but most bookmakers are now offering NR/no bet on the National.

Countrywide Flame 5-1 with Paddy Power
Silviniaco Conti Evens with Paddy Power
On His Own 7-1 with Bet365
Always Waining 40-1 with Paddy Power