Tag: gridiron

NFL Super Bowl: Early Lines Make Patriots Favourites

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Bowl LI is looming and bookmakers have released early lines on the biggest sporting event in the American calendar. The New England Patriots are early favourites to win it for a fifth time, but face stern competition from the Atlanta Falcons and there is plenty of value to be had for NFL fans ahead of what promises to be a ferocious battle.

Early Lines

Leading bookmakers have made the New England Patriots the favourites and understandably so as they have been the most impressive team in the league this season. They breezed through the regular season with the league’s best record, despite missing QB Tom Brady for the first four games through suspension over the Deflategate fiasco, and have been untroubled in reaching the Super Bowl. They are expected to win it and the prices being touted are pretty good: Bet365, Ladbrokes and Boyle Sports are offering 20/31, Sky Bet, Coral and Betfred have 8/13 and William Hill has 5/8. You can make a healthy margin by jumping on the Patriots if you think they have what it takes. Atlanta is serious underdogs here and William Hill is offering the best price: 7/5 on a win for the Falcons.

Las Vegas has set the point spread at +3 for the Pats (-3 for the Falcons) and many bookmakers, including Bet365, have 10/11 on both outcomes. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill are all offering 5/6 on the Falcons +3 and even money on New England -3. Vegas expects it to be an exceptionally high-scoring game and has set one of the highest points totals lines in recent memory at 58 points. Sky Bet has the best odds on over 58.5 (evens), while Betfred and William Hill have the best price for under 58.5 (10/11).

Projections

If you take the season averages of the Pats and Falcons, they are on 61 points combined per game. But while the Falcons have the league’s highest scoring offence (and the Pats are not far behind on 27.6 points per game), the Patriots have the best defensive record, having given away just 15.6 points per game in the regular season. The Falcons’ defence has also hit form at just the right time, conceding far fewer points in recent weeks than they did earlier in the season. For that reason, the under 58.5 points looks good with Betfred and William Hill.

It promises to be a fantastic game, with two great offences going up against one another, and solid defences making life difficult for them. In Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, it pits two genuine superstars up against one another. They have been two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season and both deserve a Super Bowl berth. It is likely to be a close game. But when push comes to shove, the Patriots should have just a bit too much offensively for the Falcons and can outscore them.

Brady and co took apart a very strong Steelers defence in such a clinical fashion in the Conference Championship game, and it augurs well going into the Super Bowl for them. Atlanta’s defence has improved in recent weeks but has still been allowing some high points scores (21 against the Packers, 20 against the Seahawks, 32 against the Saints) and New England are better offensively than those teams. The Pats have been superb defensively, giving away just three points against the Broncos and then against the Jets towards the close of the regular season. They will concede more points against a formidable Falcons offence – containing Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman and Devont Freeman – but the team with the better defence usually wins the Super Bowl and this year that is New England. Either way, it should prove to be a tight game decided by a slender margin, so it looks better to play New England outright rather than on the spread right now as 20/31 still offers good value.

NFL playoffs: Giants threatening to cause upset against Packers

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Playoff fever has gripped America as the regular season has ended and we are just a few weeks away from the Super Bowl. First up is the Wildcard Round and tensions are running high as just three games stand between these teams and a shot at the ultimate glory. In the NFC the wildcards are the New York Giants and the Detroit Lions, who travel to Green Bay and Seattle respectively with everything to play for.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

The Giants finished the regular season 11-5, a record that would have been good enough to win every other division but theirs. It is their misfortune that they play in the same NFC division as the Dallas Cowboys, who earned the best record in the conference this season by finishing 13-3. The Packers could only manage 10-6 despite their status as fifth favourites for the Super Bowl (9/1 with William Hill), but they are in sensational form. They looked down and out in the autumn when they were 4-6, but they have embarked on a remarkable six-game winning streak that has left their fans daring to dream, mainly thanks to the near-perfect form of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

The Giants go into this game as 4-point underdogs on the spread and serious underdogs with all bookmakers, with William Hill and Coral offering 9/4 on them causing an upset in Green Bay. The Giants lost 23-16 to the Packers in week 4, which will give Green Bay fans further hope, but they should be nervous about their badly injured defence. They were already banged up going into week 17 when they lost Quinten Rollins, Damarious Randall and Makinton Dorleant. They already rank a lowly 31st against the pass this season, and injuries will compound the problem, making the Giants – led by Odell Beckham Jr – the worst team they could have faced in this round. The Giants have a great chance of winning this one and the odds are fantastic at 9/4. A more cautious option would be to back the Giants +4.5 on the Spread at 19/20 with Coral, which looks a great bet.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks

Nobody is giving the Lions much of a chance of pulling off a similar upset in Seattle. Detroit sneaked into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth after finishing 9-7, the same record as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but progressed by sheer virtue of having a slightly better record against common opponents with the Bucs. The Lions are on a three-game losing streak – all against playoff teams – and they make the long trip to Seattle to face a team that won their division comfortably, with a record of 10-5-1.

The Seattle offence is hardly firing on all cylinders, but they should have enough about them to get the job done here. Of the 12 teams in the playoffs, bookmakers are offering the longest odds on the Lions, who are 80/1 to win it, compared to 12/1 for Seattle. The Seahawks have won their last nine playoff games at home, and quarterback Russell Wilson has never lost a home playoff game. The Lions, meanwhile, have not won a playoff game on the road since 1957, so history is very much against them. The bookmakers have them as serious underdogs here, with Paddy Power offering a huge 31/10 on them, while Seattle is massively odds-on.

Most bookmakers are offering 1/4 on the Seahawks winning this and that looks a good one to add to an accumulator, but not great value as an outright bet. The point spread is huge, with the Lions eight-point underdogs, but the Detroit defence has given up 73 points in the last two games, so they can cover it. A safer option, however, might be to go down to the 6.5 point alternative Bet365 is offering and take 4/6 on Seattle -6.5.

Raiders v Chiefs set to be a nailbiter

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

We are entering the business end of the NFL season and a handful of teams have already ensured qualification for the playoffs, but it is crunch time for many teams battling for the final berths. There are some crucial games scheduled in the week ahead, and none more so than the Friday game between Oakland and Kansas City. Here we preview that game and round up a few other important fixtures:

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

There are 64 regular season games left in the AFC and this is arguably the most important. The Raiders and the New England Patriots are both 10-2 and battling it out to earn home advantage should they reach the AFC Championship Game. It could go right to the wire between the Raiders and the Patriots, but Oakland also faces a gruelling battle to win their division, as the Chiefs are close to toppling them. It’s a nightmare for the Raiders to have to travel 1,500 miles on a short week for such a crucial game, but they will have known about this all season and should be suitably prepared.

The AFC West is surely the best division in the NFL by a long stretch, with the Raiders 10-2, the Chiefs 9-3 and the Denver Broncos, last season’s Super Bowl winners, 8-4. No other division in either conference has three teams that are so good, or have such good records. It is unfortunate for them that they are all lumped together. In the division tiebreakers, Kansas City is king, having beaten the Raiders, the Broncos and the Chargers already. They won 26-10 in Oakland earlier this season, and if they can beat the Raiders again in front of their home fans they will go 4-0 in the tiebreakers and move up to 10-3, putting them ahead of the Raiders.

They come into the match having won their last two games and will be full of confidence, but the Raiders are on a six-game winning streak, the best in the conference, so it will be a fascinating battle. As they have home advantage and have already beaten the Raiders this year, the Chiefs are odds-on favourites, best priced at 4/7 with Sky Bet, while the Raiders are 6/4 with Sun Bets and Coral. It is tempting to go for the Chiefs given their dominance in the division head-to-heads, and if you fancy that, you would be advised to take the 15/8 currently available at Betfair on the Chiefs winning the division as that would send them top with three games to go. To get more value, you could go for the Chiefs to cover the -3 spread at 4/5 with Sun Bets, putting an end to the Raiders’ winning run in style.

Other highlights

Over in the NFC the Seahawks travel to the Packers knowing they need a win to keep their hopes of qualifying as the second-best division winner behind the Cowboys. They are 8-3-1 and have the Giants and the Lions, both 8-4 breathing down their necks, so they need to put an end to the Packers’ two-game winning streak. They should get the job done, and the 8/11 available looks a good bet, as does the 5/6 William Hill is offering on them covering the -2.5 spread. The Lions host the Bears and should win it, but the Bears look good to cover the +8 spread at 19/20 with Coral. A fierce battle is taking place between the Falcons and the Buccaneers in their division, and the Falcons should cover a -6 spread at Los Angeles (10/11 with William Hill), while the Buccaneers can also cover a -2.5 spread when they host the Saints, keeping the battle alive for another week.