Tag: Happy Trails

Protectionist returns on Blue Diamond Stakes day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Melbourne Autumn Carnival includes three top level feature races at Caulfield on Saturday and the reappearance of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist.

The Peter Young Stakes sees the return of last season’s Flemington hero as he makes his first start for Kris Lees. He stormed to a four-length success in November under Ryan Moore when trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and this race is well short of his best trip.

Fiorente managed to win this race before going on to take the Group 1 Australian Cup and that is the route sketched out for Protectionist. Lees has also drawn up a Plan B if the five-year-old proves ineffective at middle-distances with the $1millon Sydney Cup in April as an alternative target. The horse most likely to beat him for speed on Saturday is Paul Beshara’s Happy Trails, three times a Group 1 winner at or around Saturday’s distance.

He won the Mackinnon Stakes and will be sharper for his run earlier this month when staying on into sixth in the CF Orr Stakes.  He has reportedly been working brilliantly since and carries maximum stable confidence this weekend.

Atmospherical could provide Craig Williams with a victory in the Oakleigh Plate after being drawn in barrier 4. The well-fancied Vain Queen and Earthquake are feared most and should be competitive from barriers ten and eleven respectively. Earthquake is unbeaten in three starts at Caulfield and usually runs well fresh.

Atmospherical is a daughter of Northern Meteor and was last seen finishing third to Chautauqua in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes. That was her first at this distance in five starts and she can reverse the form with runner-up Flamerge who has a nightmare draw in barrier 17.

Fontiton is all the rage for the $1million Blue Diamond Stakes after being drawn in barrier one. Robert Smerdon’s filly will be trying to become the fourth consecutive filly to win this race on Saturday and will be difficult to peg back.

The one that could give her a run for her money is Pride Of Dubai, supplemented at the cost of $55,000 after finishing second in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Colts & Geldings Prelude. He was beaten by Of The Brave (drawn 9) with Sampeah in behind in third place. The son of Street Cry looks to have every chance from barrier five.

Caulfield Saturday

Happy Trails (race 6) @6.0 Bet365

Atmospherical (race 7) @10.0 Bet365*

Pride Of Dubai (race 8) @5.50 Sportsbet

*Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Mackinnon Stakes Preview

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There are four Group 1 races on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday including the $1million Mackinnon Stakes.

A year ago Andrew Balding’s Side Glance claimed the prize with a gutsy run, holding off Dear Demi by three-quarters of a length. The seven-year-old is rapidly becoming as well-known in Australia as he is in the UK after finishing third in the Caulfield Stakes and fourth in last week’s Cox Plate.

His run in the Cox Plate was typical in that he kept battling on when looking certain to be swamped by those finishing in behind. At the line he was barely half a length behind Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide on the wide outside. Included in a group of eight that crossed the line within a length were Foreteller, Happy Trails and Criterion.

You could make a case for each of them but the draw has favoured Side Glance (barrier 7) while Foreteller (10) and Happy Trails (13) must come from his outside. Criterion finished second in the Caulfield Stakes but I’m not sure that barrier one will suit him. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races before running on again and he may find himself trapped on the inner. Foreteller kept responding to pressure and has to be a contender if he can get a good position from the starting gate.

He’s Your Man is bidding for a hat-trick after winning the  Kingston Town Stakes and the Epsom Handicap. The six-year-old will break from barrier five and is an obvious threat while Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance will also be popular with punters.

Jamie Spencer is at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup this weekend so the ride on Side Glance goes to Craig Williams. He won the Mackinnon Stakes on Alcopop in 2012 and there is no better judge of pace around Flemington.

I would have fancied Roger Varian’s Farraaj to run a big race with a low draw but he is on the wide outside in barrier 15. Adelaide managed to overcome a similar handicap last week but Farraaj is much more of a free-running type and won’t be ideally suited by dropping in behind.

Mick Channon did well with Amralah to win nice races at Newbury and Haydock and he now makes his Australian debut for Robert Hickmott. His Haydock win over Hillstar reads well after the runner-up won the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine. The Melbourne Cup was his intended target but he is yet to prove that he stays that distance.

Foreteller @11.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

*Side Glance was withdrawn through injury

Memsie Stakes Preview

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The Memsie Stakes at Caulfield is the first Group 1 of the new season in Australia. A top quality field of eleven horses have been declared for the $400,000 prize.

This race is regarded as the first serious trial for races like the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate later in the season. Puissance De Lune was favourite for the Melbourne Cup this time last year but he has not won in any of his last six races.

He was beaten a head by Happy Trails in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington in October. Silent Achiever stayed on into sixth place that day and all three are set to start on Saturday. Happy Trails went on to be beaten a short head by Shamus Award in the Cox Plate and made his first appearance of the season in the Group 3 Spring Stakes. The seven-year-old was beaten nearly five lengths into fifth but should be fitter for the race.

The race that probably holds the key to the outcome here is the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Royal Randwick. Gai Waterhouse won the race with Sweet Idea who held Messene by a head with Boban finishing strongly in fourth.

Both the runner-up and the fourth are back for another crack at the winner having side-stepped last week’s Warwick Stakes. Glyn Schofield missed the break on Boban at Randwick and he is my idea of the winner here. A nine draw is not ideal but Sweet Idea is drawn wider still in ten. Craig Newitt will probably chase her out early to get a position and Boban should be able to track her through.

Boban won four consecutive races last season including two Group 1’s. He added a third win in the highest grade when winning the Chipping Norton Stakes in March. He lost his way afterwards but looked to be on the way back in the Missile Stakes.

Team Hawkes are optimistic of a big run from Messene who is handily drawn in barrier four. Peter Moody’s Moment Of Change was a close second to Hard Stride in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield last time out. He has three course and distance victories to his credit with the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, Orr Stakes and Futurity Stakes. He is another who likes to be up with the pace early on and will probably be vying for the early lead with Sweet Idea.

Silent Achiever has not run since finishing fourth in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick in April. She had a recent barrier trial over 1100 metres and should not be far away while

Super Cool finished third behind Atlantic Jewel in this race a year ago. He has not raced since finishing ninth in the Melbourne Cup and will probably need the race.

Boban SP @Paddy Power