The weights were announced today for the Aintree Grand National on April 5th. This means that trainers can now stop attempting to pull the wool over the handicapper’s eyes as the die is cast!
The handicapper has decided to be lenient to the 13-year-old Tidal Bay and has reduced his rating to keep him closer to his rivals, albeit with top weight of 11st 10lb. It is not only the weight but also the fact that no horse of his age has won the National for over 90 years.
You cannot criticise his performances this season with a gallant third in the Welsh National under 11st 12lb and a good second to Last Instalment in the Irish Hennessy on Sunday. You could see him finishing third or fourth in the Gold Cup but Paul Nicholls has decided to go for the National and good luck to them.
Saturday’s Grand National Trial at Haydock has attracted several leading National hopes, none more so than Michael Scudamore’s Monbeg Dude. He was beaten a country mile in this last year by Well Refreshed and is 7lbs better off Gary Moore’s gelding. In terms of subsequent form, they have gone in opposite directions. Monbeg Dude won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last time whereas Well Refreshed was pulled up in the Welsh National.
Moore has reported that Well Refreshed returned a sick horse from Chepstow and that his work and tests will decide his participation this week. I really fancied him in the Welsh National but it is difficult to be confident after such a poor run. You would have to side with Monbeg Dude who has 10st 9lb in the National and could be the clear favourite if he wins this.
Venetia Williams could run last year’s runner-up Rigadin De Beauchene and Ffos Las winner Emperor’s Choice. The former has not run for a long time and will surely be found out on this ground while Emperor’s Choice landed a nice gamble last time but this looks a much tougher task.
The big danger to Monbeg Dude looks to be Hawkes Point who ran a great race at Chepstow, just failing to catch Mountainous. The form of the race is difficult to assess but Tidal Bay was just behind him and ran well in Ireland. Nicholls has not enjoyed the best of luck in recent weeks with several of his stable stars beaten but you’d have to consider Hawkes Point a major contender here.
He, along with Merry King and Godsmejudge, are also entered at Ascot but you would imagine Nicholls will go for the stronger trial. Three miles at Ascot may not be sufficient a stamina test for this out-and-out stayer.
Monbeg Dude at 7-1 William Hill
Hawkes Point at 8-1 Boylesports, Unibet, 888Sport
