Tag: Horse Racing

BetVictor Gold Cup Opens Cheltenham Jumps Season

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We’re heading to Gloucestershire and the iconic Cheltenham course for the weekend’s highlight and the first meeting of the new jumps season – the Grade 3 BetVictor Gold Cup. To be run on the Old Course over a distance of 2m 4½f (4124 metres), it dates back to 1960 and was known as the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase until last year. It’s appropriate that in the week of Remembrance Day that there’s racing at Cheltenham as the venue served as a busy Great War hospital a century ago.

Graveyard for favourites

This is a race where, history shows, it’s best to steer clear of the market leaders. Irish trainer Jonjo O’Neill has high hopes for More Of That for next year’s Cheltenham festival, and the 4-1 pick will need to live up to that billing to end a seven-year drought for favourites. The last to triumph was Tranquil Sea (2009), and he is the only favourite to win in the past decade. Long Run (2010) and Present View (2014) placed in third.

Seven is the lucky number

Experience also counts in this early season chase. Six of the past 10 winners have been seven-year-olds with Caid Du Berlais (2014) the most recent to buck that trend as a five-year-old. No four-year-old has ever won this race so last week’s Wincanton winner Frodon has a tough task ahead. Not surprisingly, horses that are stepping up through the ratings are likely to impress this early in their prep. The key ratings numbers are 139-148, into which just seven of this year’s 19 runners qualify. Al Ferof (2012) was the last to fall outside this range (159).

Star power behind our pick

Although not ticking the age requirement, the value surrounding French gelding As De Mee is hard to ignore. Part-owned by actress Dame Judi Dench, the Paul Nicholls-trained six-year-old is into 8-1 joint second favourite behind stablemate Frodon and More Of That (both at 5-1). As De Mee was placed in Grade 1 novice chases last season and opened his winning account over fences in a Beginners’ Chase at Fontwell last month. The handicapper has generously left him alone on a very attractive mark of 139. Based on his second to More Of That here this time last year, he’s entitled to have a major say.

It’s All About The Fillies On Crown Oaks Day

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A huge Melbourne Cup Day crowd is almost a given due to the city’s public holiday on the first Tuesday of November. But there’s no gazetted day off on the Thursday of the Melbourne Cup Carnival week. In 2004, that didn’t stop a staggering number of 110,677 racegoers turning out to watch the VRC Oaks.

Over the past dozen years, the crowd numbers have almost halved for Ladies Day, but more than 60,000 will still head out to Flemington this year – many of who will still be sending an SMS to the boss lamenting the misfortune at being struck down so suddenly by illness! As a race day, it pales somewhat compared to the other three days of Australia’s ultimate racing festival. The AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) for the three-year-old fillies is the main event, supported by a pair of Group 3 races and a handful of Listed events.

Star power rules in day’s feature

The oldest fillies’ classic in Australia, the VRC Oaks was first contested in 1861. The presence of the names of some of the winners from those early days is slightly dubious as the 1864, 1868, 1870 and 1877 editions featured only two runners. Initially run over 12 furlongs, the distance was changed to 2400m with the introduction of metrics in racing in 1972, before becoming a 2500m race the following year to provide a longer run out of the straight before the first turn.

With the fillies untried at this distance, history shows that star quality is often enough to carry winners over the line as shown by the presence of Light Fingers, Surround, Rose Of Kingston, Research and Miss Finland on the honour roll. Short-price favourites are common in the Oaks, and that’s the case this year with Yankee Rose almost prohibitively priced at $1.65 (with Ladbrokes).

Yankee Rose dominates the market

That’s not to say she won’t be a worthy winner after a roller coaster ride alongside her trainer David Vandyke. The All-American filly was terrible in trackwork heading into this prep, and after finishing sixth in the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill in September, connections feared she would never deliver on her immense promise. But she bounced back to be just pipped in the G1 Flight Stakes before winning the G1 Champion Stakes (200m) at Randwick.

Yankee Rose then turned in a stunning run to place third behind Winx and Hartnell in the Cox Plate to smash her rating through the 110-barrier. Vandyke, who recently shifted his base from Sydney to Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, has overcome drug and alcohol demons of his own, so they make a resilient pair deserving of more G1 success. Gate 13 isn’t ideal, but she simply wins.

It’s the day for the greys

There may not be much value in the Crown Oaks, but a couple of others on the card appeal at more generous prices. The third of the day is one of the most unique races on the Australian turf calendar. The Subzero Handicap (1400m) is a benchmark 90 affair reserved exclusively for greys! The superbly-named #4 Murt The Flirt ($4.60 with William Hill) won last time out at Caulfield and is drawn/weighted better than his main challengers, Sydney pair Rock Forthe Ladies and Onerous.

The Listed Mumm Stakes (1000m) also looks an intriguing affair with the return of injury-prone Terravista as he takes on the low-flying Hellbent from the all-conquering Darren Weir stable. The sprint fields have been heading for the outside fence this week, so the wide draw (12) is ideal for Hellbent. Take any price in the black for him to make it three in a row.

Melbourne Cup Carnival an Event for Everyone

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For the hardcore punters, Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival is a three-month long festival of black-type racing and a celebration of the champions of the Australasian turf. But for the majority of those with just a passing interest in the sport of kings, the four days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington are about as long as their attention span (and funds) will stretch.

It’s not hard to see where the Victoria Racing Club (VRC) focusses its energies either, with nary a mention or image of a thoroughbred racehorse on their homepage. But despite interest waning over the past decade (attendances have dropped about 25 per cent in that period, down from a staggering 418,069 in 2006), this four-day festival is, for the bulk of the Australian population, the only time they’ll pick up a form guide each year.

WFA feature highlights carnival finale

The structure of the Melbourne Cup Carnival has changed little in recent history – AAMI Victoria Derby on the first Saturday (October 29 this year), Emirates Melbourne Cup Day on the first Tuesday in November, Crown Oaks Day on Thursday (November 3) and Emirates Stakes Day on the final Saturday (November 5).

But in a significant change this year, the Emirates Stakes has been shifted to Derby Day and renamed the Cantala Stakes (it remains a Group 1 race over 1600m). Confusingly, the VRC have shifted the L.K.S. MacKinnon Stakes from Derby Day to the final day, and have renamed it the Emirates Stakes! It remains a weight-for-age race over 2000 metres although prizemoney has been boosted to AUD $2 million. It was hoped that dual Cox Plate winner Winx would run, but she’s been sent to the paddock after last Saturday’s remarkable win.

An appropriate arena for racing royalty

In stark contrast to the tight and tricky Moonee Valley layout around which Winx again smashed her rivals, Flemington is all about space. The course proper is just over 2300m and features one tight corner just after the winning post, and a sweeping turn from the 1300m mark until the start of the home straight around 500m from home.

Uniquely, all races up to 1200m are run down Flemington’s famous ‘Straight Six’, culminating in the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Darley Classic on the final day of the carnival. It’s quite a sight (and a racecaller’s nightmare) to see runners spread right across the track in search of the best ground. The Melbourne Cup combines both courses, starting at the 1000m mark before runners complete a full circuit of the main track to complete the most famous 3200 metres in the sport.

155 years on, it’s still that race that stops a nation

The highlight of the week is, of course, the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup. One of the world’s great handicap contests, the Melbourne Cup is also much more than a horse race – it’s a revered sporting, social and cultural event, that continues to play a significant role in defining Australia’s national identity.

Scores of TAB and picnic race meetings across the nation (almost 50 this year), along with thousands of office parties and BBQs on Melbourne Cup Day help define the event as the race that truly stops the nation. At second acceptances on Monday, 32 horses remain in contention for one of the 24 starting positions. Hartnell, which finished eight lengths second to Winx in Saturday’s Cox Plate, is the $4.60 favourite with William Hill ahead of Caulfield Cup winner Jameka ($6.50). Saturday’s Lexus Stakes is the last chance to earn a guaranteed start.

Dream Clash Highlights Stellar Cox Plate Weekend

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All three of Melbourne’s metropolitan racing clubs are vastly different but the quirkiest of the lot is the one tucked away in the memorably named north-western suburb of Moonee Ponds. Despite several threats to its existence over the years (mostly due to the vast value of its land), the Moonee Valley Racing Club remains a vibrant part of the nation’s thoroughbred landscape for two major reasons – its annual summer night racing program, and its most famous race, the W.S. Cox Plate. For the purists, this is the most anticipated event of Melbourne’s spring carnival – 2040 metres around the tricky Valley layout at weight-for-age conditions. And after a few lean years in terms of quality, the 2016 edition is shaping up as one of the greatest ever.

Tight and tricky

But to join the likes of Kingston Town, Bonecrusher, Better Loosen Up, Might And Power, Sunline, Northerly and So You Think, Cox Plate contenders must first conquer one of the most idiosyncratic racecourses on the planet. From above, it looks pretty standard with four turns but there are almost no straight runs so runners race on an almost-continuous curve until they reach a home straight that comprises just 173 metres. However, there’s a stack on camber on the turns, so horses that can maintain a high cruising speed perform well here. It’s like a NASCAR super speedway for thoroughbreds. On-pace runners are generally favoured, but a horse with a short, sharp sprint can win from six- or seven-wide!

“That’s the way it’s gonna be, little darling”

The Valley’s eccentric features don’t end there. The main grandstand is very close to the track, giving the venue a stadium feel similar to that of Happy Valley in Hong Kong. The meeting is run over two days, with the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Manikato Stakes highlighting Friday night’s card ahead of the Cox Plate meeting on Saturday. That’s 18 races in a 24-hour period. Another unique tradition that has become a fixture prior to the Cox Plate is a stirring rendition of The Horses by former Aussie 70s heartthrob Daryl Braithwaite. It’s quite an experience to hear 25,000 well-refreshed racegoers screaming along Karaoke-style, but the sing-a-long has also spooked more than a few Cox Plate runners through the years.

Galloping grey looks special

Named in honour of the superstar sprinter which won this race (then known as the Freeway Stakes) twice and the William Reid Stakes on an unprecedented five successive occasions (1979-1983), the 2016 edition of the Manikato Stakes has attracted a field of 11, including triple winner Buffering, the world’s highest rated sprinter Chautauqua (a $2.20 favourite with William Hill) and 2015 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist (a clear second pick at $6.00). An inside draw is valuable from the 1200m start at the Valley, and the Hawkes team came up trumps with barrier 1 for their eye-catching grey/bay 6yo gelding. The 1000m of the Moir was a bit sharp for him first-up, but seven of his 12 wins have come at this distance, and he’s going to be mighty hard to toss.

Winx v Hartnell, or can another surprise?

Speaking of gun runs, 2015 Cox Plate winner Winx has landed in barrier 3 for the $3,000,000 William Hill Cox Plate. She should find a terrific spot in transit with French contender Vadamos and lightweight hope Yankee Rose drawn on her inside. Punters have become accustomed to Winx starting deep in the red, but the 5yo mare is a surprisingly generous $1.95 with William Hill to secure her 13th successive win. That’s due to the presence of Hartnell ($3.00), with the Godolphin gelding drawing barrier 7 of 10 for the WFA championship of Australasia. He smashed the field in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington two weeks ago, defeating Jameka by 3.25 lengths. That same mare cruised to victory by a similar margin in last week’s Caulfield Cup!

Doncaster Racing: Will Idaho Deliver in the 2016 St Leger?

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Doncaster Racing’s St Leger has long since been considered by horse racing aficionados and betting enthusiasts as one of the “Jewels in the Crown” of the flat season. This Group 1 encounter at Doncaster will be watched by thousands trackside, millions more around the UK and indeed around the globe. It is one of the most popular races with punters in September and this years’ race will be no different. Some of the finest three-year-old fillies and colts will be on show and the key word for all punters will be “value”.

In the past few seasons it has been tough to find Derby winners in contention when it came to the St Leger, with the one notable exception being Camelot in 2012 that finished runner-up to Encke. So just where is the value in this race, and where should you be putting your money?

Where is the Value?

Well value is subjective with punters, but if you are looking for a strong short priced contender then the 2016 St Leger at Doncaster will not disappoint you. Idaho looks set to not only start as favourite this Saturday but looks likely to be at least Evens and possibly odds on currently standing at around 4/5 with most firms, with Skybet and Betfair currently being a standout 5/6.

As it stands the fifteen runner field looks really competitive should Idaho start to struggle, but seeing as the horse looked so impressive last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur stakes then that is hard to see happening. What was so impressive about that performance was how the race was run. Idaho was held up early on and entered the final 2 furlongs with plenty to do.

However, if there is one thing an Aidan O’Brien horse is noted for when it comes to major races, it’s being well prepared! Idaho travelled well throughout that race and won by a length and a half. The market for the St Leger reacted accordingly, and the odds for Idaho to land the “double” were immediately cut to 6/4, and they have steadily fallen since as more and more punters view this horse as being the one to beat.

The Muntahaa Threat

This years’ race is not just about one horse though, and there are a few other contenders that will attract attention as the race grows near. It will be interesting to see what happens to horses like Muntahaa, for example, who currently stands second favourite and is a best priced 11/2 with several firms including 888sport, Betfred and William Hill.

So what of Muntahaa’s chances and can he repeat his recent good performance at Chester where he won from a handicap of 108? Many people seem to think that he has a great chance and the market seems to think so too. The American horse Red Verdon and Housesofparliament are two other contenders with the latter coming a close second to Idaho in the Betway Great Voltigeur last month.

Once again trained by Aidan O’Brien, this is a mount that could well come up trumps on Saturday at Doncaster. So what of Red Verdon? Recent handicap wins at Chester and Haydock and a creditable performance in the Derby seem to give the horse a decent shot here. On the minus side though is the fact that the St Leger is 1 mile 6 furlongs and 132 yards (2,937 metres), and that could prove to be a stiff test for Red Verdon, plus trainer Ed Dunlop has been cautious about the horses’ chances.

He stated that the horse had been suffering with health issues of late and that it has been difficult to get the horse ready for the Doncaster race. How much do we read into that? Well one thing is for sure come Saturday, when they come under orders he will certainly be in it to win it!

Sha Tin 16th May Tips!

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HONG KONG RACING SATURDAY 16 MAY 2015

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Back to back meets on a Saturday but we will be back to Sunday next week with some great racing leading into some very high class Group racing the following week so stick with it and enjoy what is heading our way. Not an easy card today but the last four races certainly look full of some excellent talent and we should be getting collects in those races. Singapore is the main focus this weekend in this part of the world and we have some great Hong Kong raiders who should make their mark once again in this International Group Meet and I really do like their chances.

In the 4th Leg of the Global Sprint Challenge we have Lucky Nine-Aerovelocity and Rich Tapestry and I believe we will go very close to trifecting this race if not the exacta. You can throw in No 5 Zac Spirit for the added exotic selection.

In race 10 we have Military Attack and Dan Excel. Dan Excel won this race last year and has been working up very well leading into this and does look primed for today but you cannot leave out Military Attack who has looked a bit under his normal self recently but on his best form will certainly go close here.

Both races look exciting and the Hong Kong raiders should prove to be very hard to hold out here.

Enjoy the form this weekend at Sha Tin and Singapore and above all good luck.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf C Course with the exception of races 1 and 10 which are on the All Weather Dirt Track.

 

Expected Weather: Mainly cloudy with a few showers and a top temperature of 31 degrees. The wind will be from the south at about the 30 Km/h mark but occasionally gusting up to 40Km/h which will aid closers with a tailwind down the straight but more so on the turf than the AWT.

 

 Best Bet: Race 6 No 1 Athena Baby

Best Value: Race 8 No 7 Sergeant Titanium

Best Exotic Races: 7-8-9-10

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 7-10-9-1 Race 8: 6-7 Race 9: 5-2-8-7 Race 10: 7-5-1-2-12

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 5-     AWT

Top Pick: No 3 Dragon Energy

Value Selection: No 6 Joy Together

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Super King Star and No 1 Palepale

 

Race Overview

 

This is the most difficult race that I have had to look at all season so for me it is not the type of race you want to get involved in at all but having said that we may get lucky. Dragon Energy drops back in class today and his last run at this class produced a nice win on this surface over this distance with a similar weight to what he carries today. Comes up with a nice draw in gate three and should be given every chance with Zac Purton in the saddle. Joy Together dropped back in class last start and should have improved as he was not too far away at his previous starts at class four. However he gave ground entering the straight and may very well have had a few issues but was unable to be scoped as he was fractious. May prove to overlook that run and give him a bit of a chance here at decent odds.

 

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 14 Horse Supremo

Selection: No 9 Golden Bauhinia

Exotic Inclusions: No 6 Panang Hall and No 2 Sugar / No 4 Mr Wright

 

Race Overview

 

Horse Supremo does appear to go best on the All Weather Track however he does possess good gate speed and has came up with a nice draw in gate 12 which should see him in a nice position throughout the running down the grandstand rail and can sneak into the finish with a bit of a chance if he can hold on over the concluding stages. Golden Bauhinia it’s been a fair while since he carried a weight as light as this and it has to put him in a decent position down the Sha Tin straight which is his main course and distance. His form has been reasonable this season without winning and not too far away recently considering he has not had much of a draw but comes up with gate 10 today which will help him get down the grandstand rail and should be well positioned in the running.

 

 

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 2200m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 4 Win Chance

Value Selection: No 10 High Speed Metro

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Sweet Bean and No 9 Smart Guy

 

Race Overview

 

Win Chance looks to have found a bit of form since dropping back to this class and his last two runs have been quite solid with a 2nd followed up with a nice win last start over the 2000m at Sha Tin. Has placed on two occasions this season over this distance all be it at Happy Valley. If he holds form he should run well today. High Speed Metro has put together a few nice runs recently and won over this distance three starts back all be it at Happy Valley at this class but appears to be holding form with two good 2nd’s since. He has trained on well and still looks well weighted and has to be a consideration once again today at current nice each way odds.

 

 

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 2 Run Forrest

Value Selection: No 3 Ah Bo

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Beauty Ahead and No 10 Chevalier Star

 

. Race Overview

 

Run Forrest showed good improvement to win at his third start in Hong Kong over this distance last start. As a result he goes up in the weights but would not have to improve too much to give this a good shake as well. Suited by the draw in gate 6 and has Zac Purton in the saddle. Ah Bo looks very close to breaking his Hong Kong duck as he has been placed on five occasions this season and has gone very close at the last two occasions. Drawn wide but he retains his last start hoop and he can close and should be getting home hard once again today.

 

Race Overview

 

   Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 1 Sun Jewellery

Value Selection: No 6 Lucky Bubbles

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Spice Sure and No 4 Star Of Bond

 

Race Overview

 

Sun Jewellery having his first start in Hong Kong and looks to have the ability to go well first up as his trails have been good and all have been with race day hoop in Joao Moreira in the saddle. Comes to Hong Kong with decent Victorian form and put together a couple of wins there. Drawn wide but does possess decent gate speed and is expected to cross and be in a decent position in the running. Lucky Bubbles just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a nice closing 3rd over the 1000m from an outside draw which was not really suitable over the straight course. Comes up with a nice draw today in gate 4 and retains Brett Prebble in the saddle and does look a touch of value as he has trained on nicely as well.

 

 

Race 6: — Time: 07.35am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 1 Athena Baby

Value Selection: No 5 Winnam

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Glorious Ryder and No 3 Fighting Boy

 

Race Overview

 

Athena Baby has certainly improved leaps and bounds at his last two starts which he won well with Joao Moreira in the saddle. He retains the mount today and should get a nice trail in the running from gate 2. Only has to carry the weight here to be another very solid chance looking at this field. Winnam won over this distance five starts back and has had to shoulder extra weight since then. Stuck on well last start for a good third and does look a bit of an each way chance today with Zac Purton back in the saddle.

 

 

Race 7: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 2

Top Pick: No 7 Celestial Smile

Value Selection: No 10 Club Life

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Selkirk Star and No 1 Apollo’s Choice

 

Race Overview

 

Celestial Smile is far too consistent to leave out here. He has had 14 starts in Hong and has not been out of a place which is most amazing and Joao Moreira has been on him more times than not. Carried a light weight last start and ran a nice 2nd. Up a touch in the weights as a result of his consistency but still looks in ok. Comes up with a nice draw and should get a good trail in the running. Looks a very good chance if you can get each way odds but he may very well be a bit unders with Joao in the saddle. Club Life rarely runs a bad race, a consistent type and more times than not he is at each way odds and looks fairly well placed once again today. Up a touch in the weights but still looks ok for his 3rd start at class 2.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1280m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 6 Holmes Legend

Value Selection: No Sergeant Titanium

Exotic Inclusions: No 11 Cash Courier and No 13 Monsieur Mogok

 

Race Overview

 

Holmes Legend does not stay in form for too long but he did run a nice 3rd over this distance last start and Joao Moreira has jumped straight on board today which gives you the impression that he should run well once again today as he still looks in well at the weights. Sergeant Titanium has shown to be an improving type and went up to this class two starts back. Went well on the first occasion for a nice 3rd but looked to have issues last start when he was found to be lame in the right front leg. He certainly was not happy and refused to be scoped. Has worked well since and should be back on track today. Looks value on his previous form. Interesting to see that Joao Moreira has gone off him and jumped straight onto Holmes Legend. However he has a very good replacement in Brett Prebble “The Master of the Weave ” 🙂 in the saddle.

 

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10pm GMT—Distance: 1400m— Class 3

Top Pick: No 5 Amazing Kids

Value Selection: No 2 Why Why

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Super Talent and No 7 Laugh Out Loud

 

Race Overview

 

Amazing Kids just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a very nice closing win over the 1200m. Was to step up to the 1400m which does look right up his ally last start but was found to be sweating up a bit and as a result was withdrawn as he did look to have a fever. All good since then and track work has been spot on. Drawn well to suite and Joao Moreira jumps straight into the saddle. Why Why has only been out of a place on one occasion since arriving in Hong Kong and that was for a 4th. Up in distance today but has been closing off very hard recently over the 1200m and this just may suite. He is certainly weighted at his best but does come across as a decent chance here.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.45pm GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 1

Top Pick: No: 7 Dehere’s The Love

Value Selection: No 5 Master Kochanwong

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Domineer and No 2 Access Years / No 12 Pablosky

 

                                                         Race Overview

 

A fair few chances here once again but Dehere’s The Love has been lightly races this season but is in cracking form and really does appreciate this surface. Comes up with a nice draw in gate 4 and retains Joao Moreira in the saddle. Only has to stay in form to give this a real shake once again and his track work does indicate that. Master Kochanwong has been going through the classes well and had a crack at group racing last start, found it a bit rich but still ran a very nice race. Up in the weights but still looks in well against this field and has to come under consideration today as he has came up with a nice draw in gate 5 and Douglas Whyte is back in the saddle.