Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Lingfield Winter Derby Trial day preview

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It is Winter Derby Trial day at Lingfield on Saturday with a fine supporting card. The action starts at 1.15 with eight races including the valuable Ladbrokes Handicap and the Listed Cleves Stakes.

Ryan Moore is in attendance, mainly to ride Grandeur in the big race but he is also certain to have his supporters on Nigel’s Destiny in the opening race at 1.15. The lightly-raced four-year-old will be having only the seventh race of his career and could be one to follow this season. He is up against some in-form opponents here including Presumido and Until Midnight. They won last time out at Kempton and Chelmsford respectively but I am going to go for Franco’s Secret.

Peter Hedger’s gelding has improved steadily in recent months and showed an electric turn of foot to win here last time. Charles Bishop has ridden him in each of his starts to date and will be planning to arrive fast and late again here.

I am a big fan of Andrew Balding’s Intransigent who went from strength to strength last season. He seems equally effective at six and seven furlongs and starts his new campaign in the Listed race at 1.45. My only concern is that he seems a better horse in the autumn and winter and may not quite be at his peak at present. Foxtrot Romeo was runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas in 2012 and recorded his first win since at Wolverhampton in November. Marco Botti may have finally unlocked the key to the son of Danehill Dancer and he just gets the vote.

The Ladbrokes Handicap looks like a minefield for punters with various lines of form. The key to the race could be the form of Shyron’s recent victory when he beat Grey Mirage, Brave Echo, Brigliadoro, Related and Firmdecisions here. Having watched the re-run several times, I see no real reason to think that the placings should be any different here. I would expect Related to finish closer but Shyron can confirm the form.

Godolphin are mopping up the maiden races on the all-weather tracks and Chorus Of Lies could be another winner for them at 2.50. He showed plenty of potential on turf last winter and has only Balding’s Opera Lad to fear, a promising third on his racecourse debut.

In the Winter Derby Trial, I am reluctant to oppose Grandeur who has done us a few good turns in the past. He won this race last season but was beaten by the draw in the Winter Derby. He faces some useful opponents including course specialist Maverick Wave and the promising Cloudscape. The latter could be one to follow this season but I am siding with another Botti runner in Grendisar. He does not always find as much off the bridle as appears likely but he is ultra-consistent and could just take this if Grandeur is a little rusty.

Franco’s Secret 1.15 Lingfield @4-1 Betfair

Foxtrot Romeo 1.45 Lingfield @6-1 Bet365

Shyron 2.15 Lingfield @7-2 William Hill

Chorus Of Lies 2.50 Lingfield @11-4 Bet365

Grendisar 3.25 Lingfield @5-1 Betfair

Horse Racing Preview February 14th

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Plenty of top quality horse racing action in the UK this weekend from Haydock and Ascot including several Cheltenham and Aintree contenders.

Ptit Zig has been one of the best novice chasers of the season so far and Paul Nicholls is pitching him in against more experienced rivals in the Betfair Ascot Chase. As we suggested in midweek, 11-4 did not last long but 9-4 still looks a decent price for a horse that has hardly put a foot wrong all season. He has won at Ascot before and there is no reason to desert him at this stage.

The pressure will be on Lizzie Kelly in the opening novice event where she rides impressive Lanzarote Hurdle winner Tea For Two. He won that so easily that his trainer is thinking in terms of taking on the best novices at Cheltenham next month and a victory on Saturday would secure his place. I was disappointed with Arpege D’Alene last time out and expect Miss Kelly to complete the hat-trick.

I’m also keen on the chances of Otago Trail later in the card for Venetia Williams. He destroyed his rivals last time out and is clearly well above average. He could take his chance in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if he comes through tomorrow’s test with flying colours.

Over at Haydock, I expect to see Top Notch win comfortably in a bitterly disappointing renewal of the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at 1.45. Top Notch races in the same colours as Triumph favourite Peace And Co so it would be no surprise if Nicky Henderson elected to save him for Aintree instead. We put up Benbens earlier in the week at 10-1 and he is still available at 9-1 for the Grand National Trial. I was tempted to support Monbeg Dude but I’m put off by how far he got behind here in 2013. I’m sure he will run a good trial for Aintree nonetheless.

The three-mile hurdle looks wide open but it may be worth taking a chance on Bygones Sovereign at 10-1. He won by 28 lengths at Newbury last time when he stole a march on his rivals. I’d be surprised if the other jockeys allow him so much rope this time but he still races off 10st despite a 13lbs rise in the handicap.

The most popular double of the day has to be Tea For Two and Teaforthree. I was surprised how easily the 2013 National runner-up won over two and a half miles last time and he looked full of himself. I’d expect him to follow up in the last at Haydock.

Tea For Two 1.30 Ascot @4-7 Bet365

Benbens 2.55 Haydock @10-1*

Bygones Sovereign 3.25 Haydock @10-1 Bet365

Ptit Zig 3.50 Ascot @11-4*

Otago Trail 4.20 Ascot @5-4 William Hill

Teaforthree 5.05 Haydock @4-6 Betfair

*Ante-post

Haydock Grand National Trial Preview

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The Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock is the big betting race this weekend. It has not always lived up to its billing with trainers reluctant to give their National horses a hard race in testing ground ahead of the Aintree marathon.

One horse that definitely has Aintree as his main objective is Monbeg Dude, seventh behind Pineau de Re in April. He ran in this race two years ago when coming from a different county to finish third behind Well Refreshed. The going was heavy that day and he carried 10st 12lb. On Saturday he is set to race off 11st 11lb and the conditions may well be similar if the forecast rain arrives.

On the plus side, he has run two excellent National trials this season when fourth in the Hennessy at Newbury and fourth in the Welsh National at Chepstow. The latter race often holds the key here and four of the first five are entered this weekend. Benvolio carried our each-way support and was unlucky to be beaten on the nod by Emperor’s Choice after a real battle over the final few fences.

Glenquest has looked set to spring a 33-1 shock when leading between the last two but the Irish challenger just got weary on the run-in and hung away to his left. He has not raced since but cannot be discounted off only a 4lbs higher mark. The stable landed a nice gamble with Yes Tom at Ayr in midweek and Glenquest won’t mind how deep the ground gets.

Benbens is another who is at his best when the mud is flying and he ran a super race at the last meeting here when just failing to catch Samstown. He looks a hard ride and Ryan Hatch will have to earn his fee. More importantly, Hatch claims 5lbs which means Benbens is 10lbs better off with Samstown for a neck and has an extra half mile to travel. Providing that race did not take too much out of him, he is going to be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Lucinda Russell won this race in consecutive seasons with Silver By Nature and could run Lie Forrit. He was a good hurdler a few years ago and has gradually improved over fences. Rigadin de Beauchene won this last year but has pulled up on all three subsequent starts.

Benbens @10-1 Betfair

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

UAE 2000 Guineas Preview

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Most of us are pre-occupied with the run up to the Cheltenham festival at the moment but Sheikh Mohammed is already assessing his classic hopes for the new flat season. The brilliant success of Local Time in the UAE 1000 Guineas is going to be hard to top in the colt’s equivalent on Thursday but a decent field has been assembled.

South African trainer Mike de Kock has dominated this race in previous seasons and is double-handed as he goes for a sixth victory. His colts finished first and second in the trial race last month with Mubtaahij storming five lengths clear of Ajwad.

De Kock has revealed that jockey Christophe Soumillon has chosen to ride Ajwad in preference here with Pat Dobbs aboard Mubtaahij. I have watched the race closely and, try as I might, cannot find any reason why Mubtaahij won’t beat Ajwad again on Thursday. Both colts broke well and travelled nicely at the head of the field before Mubtaahij stretched clear in the straight.

If there was an unlucky horse it was Godolphin’s Maftool who was slowly away and ran on steadily to finish third. The betting suggests that he will make a race of it this time but he still needs to improve. He did win a Group 3 at Newmarket in September but it wasn’t a particularly strong race and he appeared to have his limitations exposed in the Dewhurst. He was no match for Belardo that day, finishing fifth of the six runner field. I also felt that Maftool tended to hang fire a little in the closing stages, although that may have been due to his exertions in trying to make up the lost ground.

The Godolphin colt finished second to Richard Hannon’s Burnt Sugar over six furlongs at Kempton prior to his Newmarket win. The winner is yet to win beyond that distance and Maftool should have his measure. Godolphin are also represented by Zephuros who finished fourth in the trial without ever really threatening. He ran well enough when fifth to Mastermind at the last meeting here but it would be a surprise if he were to prove good enough.

Padlock was even further back in sixth place in the trial with Unorthodox finishing eighth. Mubtaahij can show himself to be a smart colt and land a sixth UAE 2000 Guineas for his trainer.

Tip

Mubtaahij 3.55 Meydan @7-4 Betfair

Ptit Zig fancied for Betfair Ascot Chase

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One of the most exciting prospects for the Cheltenham festival in March is the Paul Nicholls-trained Ptit Zig who is unbeaten in four starts over fences. He is set to line up in Saturday’s Betfair Ascot Chase after stable companion Al Ferof was ruled out through injury.

The sponsors put up Balder Succes as the 9-4 favourite on Tuesday with Ptit Zig at 11-4 but I don’t think that price will last long. Ptit Zig was long odds-on at Exeter and Warwick in November and won both races without any fuss. He was then upped in class to a Grade 2 at Ascot and dished out a nine-lengths beating to the odds-on Josses Hill.

The runner-up was surprisingly beaten last week in his Cheltenham prep but remains a serious chasing prospect. It was the superior speed on the flat which was particularly impressive about the winner, quickening clear after the last. Traffic Flude finished almost 30 lengths behind Ptit Zig but won readily at Plumpton on Monday.

Nicholls sent the son of Great Pretender to Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and he put Champagne West by six lengths. As at Ascot, Ptit Zig showed a good turn of foot from the last and his most likely target is the JLT Novices’ Chase at the festival.

Alan King’s Balder Succes was thought to be a likely contender for the Champion Chase at the start of the season but he suffered defeats on his first three starts. He was slightly disappointing when only fourth to Dodging Bullets in the Tingle Creek Chase in December. He was then beaten by Special Tiara at Kempton but bounced back to win on the same course in January.

Champagne Fever was a high class hurdler but has proved a little erratic over fences. He came close to winning the Arkle last season when just beaten on the nod by Western Warhorse. His only victory since was at Clonmel in November. He did not seem to get home when fourth to Silviniaco Conti at Kempton in the King George VI Chase and fell at Thurles last time. He looked beaten at the time with Don Cossack going on to win well.

Ma Filleule looked a very exciting prospect when winning at Aintree in April and shaped well when only a length and a half behind Sam Winner at the same course in December. The grey still holds a Gold Cup entry and may find one or two of these too quick here.

Ptit Zig 3.50 Ascot @11-4 Betfair

Horse Racing Preview February 7th

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It’s all systems go for a cracking Newbury card on Saturday with the Betfair Hurdle supported by the reappearance of champion chaser Sire de Grugy.

We previewed the Betfair Hurdle last month and our ante-post selections have both made the final line-up. Activial (tipped at 10-1) has been trained for the race and I see no reason to desert him at this late stage. It could be argued that he is badly weighted with Calipto on novice form but I think the favourite has a few quirks and I’m prepared to oppose him.

Vasco Du Ronceray (tipped at 33-1) is currently showing at 75-1 on Betfair and seems virtually friendless in the market. Whether that is because Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Sign Of A Victory I am not sure but Peter Carberry claims 3lbs and it wouldn’t be impossible for him to make the frame. There don’t seem to be any natural front-runners in the field so I can see the field packed up turning for home and there could be some hard-luck stories.

As expected, Vibrato Valtat has headed to Warwick for the Kingmaker Chase rather than take on Sire de Grugy in the Game Spirit. That leaves the improving Mr Mole as his most likely danger and even still looks a good price about the popular chestnut. Gary Moore obviously won’t have him at 100% for this but I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t fit enough to win. Hopefully he can take this and set up the three-way clash with Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets in the Champion Chase next month.

The Denman Chase is a tricky one with question marks against several of the runners. Houblon Des Obeaux ran a cracker in the Hennessy in November but has been beaten since while Taquin Du Seuil, Harry Topper and Double Ross have all been out of sorts. Unioniste is not quick by any stretch of the imagination while Coneygree has done nothing wrong since returning from injury. It may be between the pair with the Nicholls runner narrowly preferred.

Over at Warwick, Vibrato Valtat takes on the game front-runner Top Gamble in the Kingmaker Chase. The race is perfectly set up for the grey to get a nice lead through the race and challenge at the last. Glens Melody should be able to win the Mares’ Hurdle for a second consecutive year without Mischievous Miss in attendance. The Irish mare produced a great run at the Cheltenham festival behind Quevega and nothing else in the field can boast form at that level.

Vibrato Valtat 2.05 Warwick @6-5 Bet Victor

Unioniste 2.25 Newbury @4-1 Coral

Glens Melody 2.40 Warwick @Evens Bet365

Sire de Grugy 3.0 Newbury @10-11 Sky Bet

Activial 3.35 Newbury @10-1 ante-post

Vasco Du Ronceray @33-1 ante-post, 75-1 Betfair