Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Preview January 10th

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A nice double on the all-weather at Lingfield on Friday (Don’t Be and Sabre Rock, both tipped at 9-4) paid over 10-1 to set us up nicely for the weekend.

Channel 4 cameras are at Kempton and Warwick for some good quality National Hunt racing, although winners may be hard to find. Nicky Henderson made fools of ante-post punters by pulling Dawalan out of the Lanzarote Hurdle with Barry Geraghty now switching to Hammersly Lake. I have not seen any explanation in the media but I’ve gone back to the race for a second look and believe Saffron Wells could give us a run for our money.

He has got in here on a light weight after running a cracker at Newbury when trying to concede almost a stone to Polamco. That horse is an improving stayer and the pair were separated by the Paul Nicholls-trained Morito Du Berlais, a good yard stick in staying handicaps this season. Saffron Wells like to get his toe in and will have perfect conditions on Saturday.

I had considered supporting Heath Hunter but I see that Tom Scudamore has elected to ride Dell’ Arca instead. Heath Hunter showed up well for a long way at Haydock last time but the application of first time blinkers suggests that David Pipe thinks he has his own ideas about the game.

Kilcooley has been hammered by the handicapper for his 23-length win at Haydock and I have more regard for Tea For Two, the mount of Lizzie Kelly. The gelding won with plenty in hand at Towcester and does not look harshly treated for his handicap debut.

Shotgun Paddy was our midweek selection for the Warwick Classic Chase as he bids to repeat last year’s victory. He has to carry top weight of 11st 12lb so it is difficult to be confident in such a testing race.

This is a big year for Godolphin after a poor season in 2014. Charlie Appleby already has a number of his string in action on the all-weather and it could be worth noting his runners at Lingfield on Saturday. Magical Effect looks a ready-made winner in the 12.20 after finishing second at Wolverhampton in October.

The son of New Approach can get off the mark here while Turning Times should make it a double in the handicap at 3.10. The daughter of Pivotal is a bit of a rarity in that she is a roan racing in the Godolphin blue. She won her maiden here in August after a couple of decent efforts at Kempton.

Saffron Wells 2.40 Kempton @12-1 Paddy Power

Shotgun Paddy 3.35 Warwick @9-1

Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3

Magical Effect 12.10 Lingfield

Turning Times 3.10 Lingfield @15-8 Paddy Power

Lingfield Friday Preview

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There are decent flat and jumps meetings in the UK on Friday including the reappearance of the smart Josses Hill at Doncaster. Nicky Henderson’s gelding was runner-up to Ptit Zig on his chasing bow at Ascot and meets nothing of that calibre at Town Moor. Anything other than a comfortable victory would be a surprise but he is likely to start a strong odds-on favourite.

Henderson has runners at Doncaster and Huntingdon with winning chances and will be looking to improve his strike rate after a slow start to the season. He should be among the winners but I am looking to the all-weather at Lingfield for my two bets of the day.

It will be interesting to see how Mick Channon’s Sgt Reckless gets on in the mile and a half maiden at 1.10. It isn’t that often that you see an eight-year-old start favourite first time out on the flat but the son of Imperial Dancer was a smart novice hurdler last season. He may find Ralph Beckett’s Belrog the main threat here, a lightly-raced son of New Approach.

My first wager is on Sir Mark Prescott’s Don’t Be who is trying to complete a four-timer in the 2.15 race. Prescott is a master at setting up a sequence with his handicappers and Don’t Be has worked her way up from a mark of 66 to 82. Much of the credit for her improvement must go to jockey Luke Morris who has ridden her to all three victories.

Morris would not win any medals for style but he knows how to get the best out of his mounts. She scored at Wolverhampton in November and followed up at Lingfield in December. She then completed her hat-trick by beating Brigliadoro by a short-head just before Christmas. The runner-up has won since so a 6lbs rise may not necessarily be enough to stop her on Friday. The weights give Zman Awal a good chance of reversing recent form with Bint Dandy and James Fanshawe’s four-year-old looks the main danger.

In the 3.25 I am siding with Shelley Birkett and Sabre Rock to complete a hat-trick for the Newmarket yard of Julia Feilden. Sabre Rock seems to have settled down since being taken down the start early and has won his last two starts over course and distance. After beating Turnbury by half a length he followed up in some style to beat Catching Zeds by two and three-quarter lengths. He could be called the winner a long way out that day and connections are keen to strike again before he is re-assessed.

The danger looks to be Top Set who is still a maiden after 13 attempts. He ran on from a long way back to finish second to Moulin Rouge last time under Hayley Turner. Seb Sanders has ridden the gelding before and takes over on Friday. I am just put off by the fact that he is yet to win and it is difficult to deliver a horse fast and late here in a big field.

Don’t Be 2.15 @9-4 Bet365

Sabre Rock 3.25 @9-4 Paddy Power

Warwick Classic Chase Preview

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The big steeplechase this weekend is the Warwick Classic Chase, due off at 3.35 on Saturday. The race is over three miles and five furlongs and the going is expected to be very testing.

Shotgun Paddy did this column a good turn last year and bids for a repeat win under top weight of 11st 12lb. On the face of it, he has a stiff task but he is actually racing off only a 2lbs higher mark than last season.

Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old can get very low at some of his fences but he was able to get away with ploughing through the last fence before beating Carruthers by six lengths. The runner-up ran a cracker that day but is surely getting a little long in the tooth for a competitive race such as this.

Shotgun Paddy came within a quarter of a length of winning at the Cheltenham Festival last March when just failing to catch Midnight Prayer.  Lavelle had no hesitation in nominating the Welsh National as his early season target but everything went wrong at Chepstow. He lost his position early on and then slithered on landing over the second fence. Jockey Leighton Aspell pulled him up before the seventh fence when it was clear that he was not going to get involved.

Daryl Jacob takes over in the saddle on Saturday and he remains a very promising young chaser. The fences do not take a great deal of jumping around here and he looks good each-way value at 8-1.

The early favourite is the novice chaser Return Spring, trained by Philip Hobbs. He was useful over hurdles last season, winning at Cheltenham in November. This will be only the fourth chase of his career after finishing third to Kings Palace last time. His jumping was a bit sketchy that day, although he does have a similar profile to Shotgun Paddy from a year ago.

West End Rocker is now thirteen years of age but won at Lingfield in December. He is up 4lbs and Cheltenham winner Benbane Head carries an 8lbs penalty. Hawkes Point was fancied for the Welsh National after finishing second in the race in 2013 but was under pressure a long way from home and was eventually pulled up. He is difficult to fancy on that evidence and I shall stick with Shotgun Paddy in the hope that he can defy top weight.

Shotgun Paddy @8-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Lanzarote Hurdle Ante-Post Preview

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After a very quiet week, National Hunt action picks up again this weekend with good quality cards at Kempton and Warwick. The feature race on Saturday’s Kempton card is the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs.

Trainer Nicky Henderson has three entries with Aintree winner Dawalan along with Hammersly Lake and Royal Irish Hussar. Barry Geraghty has already been pencilled in for the ride on Dawalan which suggests he is the stable’s first choice.

The grey was considered a possible for the Triumph Hurdle last season but Henderson diverted him to the Fred Winter Hurdle when it was clear that he was not going to be good enough. He was never in with a chance in that hotly-contested handicap and time has shown that he is really more of a stayer. Stable companion Sign Of A Victory walked all over him at Ascot but he improved when stepped up to two and a half miles at Haydock behind On Tour.

He looked to be going nowhere with two to jump but finished best of all. He was made favourite for Aintree next time and rallied from the last to beat Bear’s Affair by three-quarters of a length. He is up 9lbs here but will be staying on when most of these have cried enough. He looks a good each-way bet at 9-1 in the ante-post lists.

Hammersly Lake was never really travelling like a winner last time but stayed on from the last behind Silsol. He looks more of a chaser in the making whereas Royal Irish Hussar has not recaptured his early juvenile form.

The bookmakers’ favourite is Tea For Two who won easily at Towcester last month. He is a course and distance winner and Lizzie Killy takes a useful 7lbs off his back. Hello George was sixth in the Ladbroke over two miles at Ascot and goes up in trip for Philip Hobbs while Warrantor steps out of novice company for Warren Greatrex. He was impressive at Market Rasen, as was runaway Haydock winner Kilcooley.

He chased home last week’s Tolworth Hurdle winner L’Ami Serge before winning by 23 lengths in heavy ground last time. Dawalan had him well behind at Ascot and is 8lbs better off here so I am sticking with the Henderson horse.

Dawalan @9-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Taunton Wednesday Preview

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The pick of the National Hunt action comes from Taunton on Wednesday with a six-race card starting at 1.40.

The first race is a three-mile maiden hurdle restricted to five-year-olds and upwards so it is no surprise to see some real chasing types set to line up. The Chuckmeister won a point-to-point in Ireland and has now joined the Paul Nicholls stable. He is related to an old favourite of mine in Moorcroft Boy, a gallant winner of the Scottish National. He may not reach those heights but he jumps and stays and can get the better of Local Show who has shown decent form in similar events.

Vago Collonges will be a popular fancy to score for the same stable in the following novices’ hurdle at 2.10. He would be a certainty if able to reproduce his 2013 Champion Bumper form at Aintree but he has proved to be very frustrating since. Nicholls is applying the hood for the first time on Wednesday but I am sticking with the hat-trick seeking Rock The Kasbah.

He represents the Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson team and looks a very straight-forward ride. He tracked the leaders last time before picking them up in the home straight and winning nicely.

The handicap chase at 2.40 brings together a couple of horses that arguably should have won last time out but for their jumping. Pinkneys Pride loomed up on the outside full of running at Wincanton and looked unfortunate to knuckle on landing. He had raced very keenly and got close to a couple of fences but he was entitled to after a lengthy lay-off.

The danger is Alan King’s Money For Nothing who ploughed through the second-last here behind Un Ajou in December. He was slow at the last three fences and it didn’t look the greatest race in the world so I’m siding with the top weight, Pinkneys Pride.

David Pipe can land the handicap hurdle at 3.10 with the grey Bladoun. I don’t like backing horses that have been clobbered by the handicapper and this one is up 13lbs. However, Tom Scudamore had practically pulled him up before the line and he was higher in the handicap a couple of seasons ago. You could make a case for several of the others but I am most fearful of Mr Fitzroy who produced a 25-1 shock at Lingfield and is only up 5lbs.

The Chuckmeister 1.40 @2-1 Betfair

Rock The Kasbah 2.10 @4-5 Betfair

Pinkneys Pride 2.40 @5-2 Coral

Bladoun 3.10 @15-8 Paddy Power

Southwell Tuesday Preview

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It’s a relatively quiet week on the racing front after the big Christmas and New Year meetings. Southwell keeps interest ticking over for flat racing fans with a seven-race card on Tuesday and I have been delving into the all-weather form in the hope of finding a winner or two.

My regular followers will know that Trainer William Haggas has done us a few good turns in the past and he sends a couple north tomorrow, both with leading chances. Toofeeg is fitted with blinkers in the handicap at 1.50 as he goes for his first win in six attempts. He jinked and caused his rider to lose an iron when very disappointing here in November and ran a lot better last time behind Noro Lim. He is bred to be useful, being by Approve out of a Zafonic mare, and the blinkers will hopefully bring about some improvement.

The early money has been for Lysander The Greek but it is hard to see why. I can only think that considerable improvement is expected as he steps up to a mile for the first time but he represents poor value at around 5-1.

Whatever the fate of Toofeeg, Haggas should not return empty-handed as Belahodood looks a safe bet in the 2.50. The four-year-old made a pleasing debut at Kempton when beaten by a decent sort in Made With Love. John Gosden will be aiming higher with the five-length winner and Belahodood was eased once his chance had gone.

Forced Family Fun can get punters off to a good start in the opening handicap. He won easily over hurdles recently and can take advantage of a good handicap mark on the level for John Quinn and Tom Eaves. Hurdles form could again hold the key in the two-mile race at 1.20 and I am siding with Plumpton winner Mariet. Suzy Smith’s Dr Fong mare has shown precious little on the flat before but she had run well at Fontwell prior to her Plumpton win and is lightly weighted here.

Best Tamayuz is becoming something of a Southwell specialist with three course victories and he can make it four in the 2.20. His biggest threat is Kung Hei Fat Choy but there were no excuses for his defeat last time and Scott Dixon’s four-year-old can score under 5lb claimer Tim Clark.

Lewamy had the race won a long way out at Kempton last time and can follow up for Michael Bell in the 3.20. The early money has been for Boboli Gardens but I’d much rather stick with the proven recent form. Finally, take Raul Da Silva to steer home Eium Mac for a second course and distance victory in the 3.50. He should hold the veteran General Tufto on 3lbs worse terms.

Forced Family Fun 12.50 @15-8 Betbright

Mariet 1.20 @8-1 Paddy Power

Toofeeg 1.50 @7-2 Skybet

Best Tamayuz 2.20 @3-1 BetVictor

Belahodood 2.50 @14-5 Betfair

Lewamy 3.20 @3-1 Paddy Power

Eium Magic 3.50 @7-2 Bet365