Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Sussex National Day Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Plumpton used to be my local course so I always look forward to the Sussex National meeting which takes place on Sunday.

It has attracted a typically strong field including Reblis who did this column a favour a year ago when sluicing through the mud for Gary Moore. He is back attempting a repeat victory and is 2lbs lower in the weights than last season after some moderate efforts. It seems safe to assume that this race has been the target for him but I just wonder if it is going to be soft enough for the son of Assessor.

Venetia Williams runs two here in Tarraco and Gorgehous Lliege. The former has had a hike in the weights after winning easily last time but the punters have gone for Gorgehous Lliege in the early betting. I watched his run closely last time and he was almost carried out by a rival, losing all momentum and never managing to get back into the contest. He didn’t quite do enough for me that day and I’ll side with Tarraco who looks better value at around 10-1.

Nicky Henderson claimed the big prize on Saturday with L’Ami Serge at Sandown and he should be on target with Caracci Apache in the 1.50. This one got up late to beat stable companion Clean Sheet last time out and the runner-up has gone in since. He looked as though he may only be fourth approaching two out but stayed on very strongly and stamina can again win the day here. Kilgeel Heel is the obvious danger but may not have quite as much scope as the Henderson horse.

Pain Au Chocolat should get punters off to a winning start at 12.50 after a very promising first run for the Million In Mind Partnership. He didn’t do anything wrong but was just outpaced from the last and will have learned a lot from the experience. The useful flat performer Devilment is the main threat for John Ferguson.

The novice chase at 1.20 may only have four runners but three of them are clearly above average. Chris Pea Green has bolted up here on his last two starts and was a fair hurdler last season while Grumeti was placed in the Triumph Hurdle a couple of seasons back. I am going to oppose both with David Pipe’s Sail By The Sea who won a hurdle by 25 lengths and receives weight from his rivals.

Pain Au Chocolat 12.50 @Evens Betfair

Sail By The Sea 1.20 @5-2 Bet365

Carraci Apache 1.50 @13-8 Bet365

Tarraco @10-1 Betfair

Cheltenham New Year’s Day Preview

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Punters won’t want to be nursing too much of a hangover with Cheltenham getting under way at 12.10 on New Year’s Day. There is some top quality National Hunt action to greet 2015 and there could be plenty of festival clues throughout the card.

There are some decent staying novice hurdlers in the opener and I see no reason to desert Brother Tedd after two easy victories for Philip Hobbs. The market suggests that Different Gravey and Zeroeshadesofgrey will fight out the finish but I am surprised to see Brother Tedd as big as 11-2. Assuming all eight stand their ground, he looks a rock solid each-way bet at those odds.

The second race will take some sorting out and the Aintree race won by Oscar Time may hold the key. Alfie Spinner would probably come out on top on the bare form but I liked the way that Our Father travelled into the race before lack of fitness told in the closing stages. The grey was a top novice a couple of seasons ago and David Pipe knows how to get them ready for competitive races like this.

Ptit Zig was very impressive at Ascot and can beat Champagne West in the Dipper Novices’ Chase at 1.20. He looks a classy recruit to fences and was thought good enough to contest the Champion Hurdle last season. The only slight concern is that it is his first sight of the Cheltenham fences but he should have too much speed for the Philip Hobbs runner.

The big handicap chase of the day at 1.55 looks wide open. I studied the form for this race in some detail before concluding that Splash Of Ginge could be the value bet. I was disappointed to see the bookies chalk him up as favourite but it is fatal to change your mind. The best odds guarantee will come in useful if he goes bigger than 6-1 on the day.

Knight Of Noir is the selection in the handicap hurdle at 2.30 after his promising first run of the season. He travelled well throughout but was just out-sprinted from the last by Morito Du Berlais. That horse has gone on to run well in top handicaps since so Knight Of Noir should go well despite a 5lbs weights rise.

Finally, I am siding with Rock On Ruby in the two and a half-mile hurdle over the Henderson duo of Vaniteux and Beat That. I am a great admirer of Beat That but this trip looks short of his best and it may be significant that Geraghty prefers Vaniteux. Rock On Ruby loves it here and always looked in control last time out.

Brother Tedd 12.10 @11-2 Skybet

Our Father 12.45 @7-1 Paddy Power

Ptit Zig 1.20 @11-8 William Hill

Splash Of Ginge 1.55 @6-1 William Hill

Knight Of Noir 2.30 @5-1 Ladbrokes

Rock On Ruby 3.05 @3-1 Coral

Newbury Monday Preview

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We had to settle for second place in both of the big Christmas features with Dynaste (King George 8-1) and Benvolio (Welsh National 14-1). The show moves on to Newbury on Monday with a decent card featuring the Challow Hurdle and the Mandarin Chase.

The Grade 1 Challow Hurdle has attracted a top quality field with the more established novices Blaklion, Parlour Games and Vyta Du Roc taken on by Arpege D’Alene. It should be close between Parlour Games and Blaklion on Cheltenham form but I am going to take a chance on the lightly-raced Arpege D’Alene. It looked a decent race that he won decisively at Ascot last month despite drifting out to 12-1. This will obviously be a tougher test but Newbury is one of the fairest tracks in the country and he can spring a surprise.

The Mandarin Chase can go the way of Alan King’s Ziga Boy who beat Silver Commander at Wincanton last time out. That was only the sixth start of his career so there is plenty of scope for improvement and a 9lbs rise may not stop him. The main danger is probably the consistent Knockranrawley.

Morito Du Berlais will have plenty of supporters after finishing third in a hot race at Haydock last time. He did not hurdle with any great fluency up the home straight so it was no disgrace to finish less than three lengths behind On Tour. I am going to oppose him with Wincanton winner Polamco who showed signs of inexperience before drawing clear of Muckle Roe. He has also gone up in the handicap but receives 7lbs from the Nicholls runner and that could prove significant.

The handicap chase at 1.05 is going to take some sorting out but I’m siding with Phone Home who should have won here last time out. He held a good lead at the last but lost concentration in front and allowed Bertie Boru to get up and beat him. I expect Brendan Powell to hold on to him a little longer this time before delivering his challenge.

Nicky Henderson can land a first and last race double with Top Notch and Clean Sheet. Both are exciting additions to the powerful Lambourn yard and have Cheltenham aspirations. Top Notch won both of his races in France comfortably while Clean Sheet was only beaten through fitness at Sandown last time out. Nicholls can also complete a double on the day with Far West in the 2.45 after a couple of promising efforts over fences.

Top Notch 12.30 @10-11 Paddy Power

Phone Home 1.05 @5-1 Paddy Power

Ziga Boy 1.35 @5-2 Ladbrokes

Arpege D’Alene 2.10 @6-1 Ladbrokes

Far West 2.45 @9-4 Bet365

Polamco 3.15 @5-1 Coral

Clean Sheet 3.50 @10-11 Paddy Power

Lexus Chase Preview

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The Grade 1 Lexus Chase is the feature event at Leopardstown on Sunday, assuming it survives the threat of freezing fog.

In the absence of any obvious rising stars in the three-mile chasing division, this race could well have be a good guide to the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March. Reigning champion Lord Windermere clashes with 2013 winner Bobs Worth, an impressive winner here a year ago.

When Bobs Worth scooted clear of First Lieutenant with Lord Windermere toiling behind in seventh, it seemed difficult to imagine the placings being reversed at the festival. There remains an element of mystery about the closing stages of the Gold Cup as Lord Windermere and On His Own (also taking part on Sunday) swept past Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth. Trainer Jim Culloty feels that the ground is the key to his horse so there has to be a doubt about him producing his best with the ground heavy.

Bobs Worth has not raced since and Nicky Henderson has freely admitted that his horses are all better for a run this season. On His Own has failed to reproduce that Cheltenham form, being beaten a total of 171 lengths in his two starts since. First Lieutenant has never quite shown that he has the stamina for a test in this sort of ground and a more likely candidate is Boston Bob.

He was a remote third on his seasonal reappearance but ran much better last time to chase home the race-fit Don Cossack at Punchestown. Lord Windermere was just half a length behind in third with Texas Jack fourth. Boston Bob has won on all types of ground and should be fit enough to do himself justice.

Sam Winner is admirably tough and has already won at Cheltenham and Aintree this winter. His battling effort to beat The Druids Nephew under a big weight entitles him to take his chance but he looked just short of top grade last season. He was a respectable fifth in the RSA Chase having chased home Smad Place at Newbury in heavy ground.

Carlingford Lough was sixth at Cheltenham and won at Punchestown in April. He is tough and consistent and could be in the money under Tony McCoy if he is sharp enough on his first run of the season. Road To Riches slammed Rocky Creek by eleven lengths in November and is progressive.

He holds several of these on that form including Boston Bob who has the best part of thirty lengths to make up. The bookmakers were divided on the merits of that race with there being a suspicion that the winner had slipped the field. We will know more about his Gold Cup prospects after Sunday’s race.

Boston Bob @5-1 William Hill

Midnight Prayer can take Chepstow marathon

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The Coral Welsh Grand National is one of my favourite races of the National Hunt season. The roll of honour includes names like Burrough Hill Lad, Bonanza Boy, Carvill’s Hill, Riverside Boy, Master Oats and Earth Summit.

It is well established as a trial for the Grand National with more recent winners including Bindaree and Silver Birch plus Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronized. There are the occasional shock winners, notably Dream Alliance in 2009 and Mountainous last year.

Mountainous is back again attempting a repeat for Richard Lee but may struggle to confirm the form with runner-up Hawkes Point. The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old ran the race of his life when going under by just a head and will have been sharpened up by his run here at the start of the month. He is racing off just a 2lbs higher mark this time and will have been aimed at this race for some time.

I had Shotgun Paddy in mind for this race after watching him slog his way to victory at Warwick last season. He made a couple of costly errors when runner-up to Midnight Prayer at the Cheltenham festival but it is the increase in the weights that has put me off his chances. He must now carry 11st 12lb which is a daunting prospect for such an inexperienced chaser.

Alan King’s Midnight Prayer had a length and a quarter to spare that day and is as tough as old boots. The Hennessy Gold Cup always looked likely to prove a little too hot for him but he jumped well before fading in the home straight. He is 8lbs better off with Shotgun Paddy and that has to give him a leading chance. He looks great each-way value at around 11-1.

Monbeg Dude won here in 2013 ran an eye-catching race in the Hennessy. He stayed on well in the closing stages to finish fourth behind Many Clouds. He has a touch of class having won a Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham last December and finished a respectable seventh in the Grand National. The worry for his supporters is the weight as he is up 18lbs in the handicap since his win in this race.

Benvolio gave 3lbs and a two-length beating to Midnight Prayer when the two met at Newbury last year and is 5lbs better off with the King runner. He also holds Gas Line Boy on that form and ran well when fourth behind Court By Surprise at Wincanton in November. He does not have that much chasing experience but makes more appeal than David Pipe’s Amigo who was only seventh here a year ago.

Midnight Prayer @11-1 32Red

Benvolio @14-1 Coral

Each-way ¼ odds 1,2,3,4

Dynaste the value bet in King George VI Chase

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A top quality field of ten are set to face the starter for the Grade 1 King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Silviniaco Conti heads the market for Paul Nicholls as he bids to follow up last year’s victory in the Christmas feature event. He came under pressure a long way out that day but the front-running Cue Card finally began to run out of steam in the home straight and Silviniaco Conti powered to a three and a half-length victory.

That victory entitled the gelding to go close in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he ran a great race to finish fourth, only surrendering the lead on the uphill climb to the finish. He then beat Dynaste at Aintree on ground possibly quicker than he prefers.

He faded tamely first time out this season at Wetherby but was a different proposition in Haydock’s Betfair Chase when gaining his revenge on Menorah by two lengths. He had old rivals Dynaste and Cue Card behind in third and fourth and the pair re-oppose on Boxing Day.

Cue Card did not jump with his usual fluency that day and it would be no surprise to see him bowling along in front at Kempton. Despite being a previous winner of the Betfair Chase, there remains a suspicion that he is not a true three-miler and could be vulnerable in the closing stages.

Dynaste has looked top class when winning at Aintree last year and again at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He ran inexplicably badly in this race a year ago after a similar preparation and there seems no reason why he should not be involved in the finish. He was brilliant when winning over course and distance as a novice and travels well in his races. This could finally be his big day and Tom Scudamore will look to creep into contention as they turn for home.

Al Ferof put up an impressive performance to win the Amlin Chase at Ascot last month. He finished a weary third here last year and certainly did not get home over three miles in heavy ground at Haydock last season. Connections will be hoping that conditions do not deteriorate in order to give him a chance of seeing out the trip.

Champagne Fever was narrowly beaten by Western Warhorse at Cheltenham in March and tackles three miles for the first time here. He won comfortably over two and a half miles in November but this will be the first time he has taken on such a strong field of experienced chasers.

Menorah has run two excellent races for Philip Hobbs but may struggle against race-fit rivals here while Johns Spirit is unproven over three miles.

Dynaste @8-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3