Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Cox Plate Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The $3million Group 1 Cox Plate takes place at Moonee Valley Racecourse this Saturday. Sportsbet are repeating their generous Caulfield Cup offer of refunding stakes if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the big race.

The favourite is the Robert Hickmott-trained Fawkner who looks to have drawn nicely in barrier four. He is bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Makybe Diva in 2005, coincidentally from the same stall. Racing in the familiar Lloyd Williams colours, the son of Reset claimed the Caulfield Cup last year when holding off the fast finishing Dandino.

He chalked up another Group 1 victory when beating Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes last time out. That was over the same distance as Saturday’s race and he has to be respected. The form of the Caulfield Stakes is often a good guide here and the first five are all in the field.

Side Glance has been a good money-spinner for the Andrew Balding stable and set a leisurely pace before quickening up turning for home. Fawkner always had him in his sights and held off the late run of Criterion with Sacred Falls catching the eye in fourth. Zac Purton may have ridden a fine race in the Caulfield Cup but he did not cover himself in glory on Sacred Falls. He was well out of his ground on the turn for home and will surely keep closer to the pace on Saturday. Barrier nine is not ideal but he must go well.

The biggest sufferer in the draw was Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide who is in the thirteen stall. He won the Group 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington and ran well when third to Ectot in France last time. He looked unlucky that day but the winner did not advertise the form in the Arc and it is going to take a mighty effort to win from the outside.

Sacred Falls is trained by Chris Waller who also saddles Foreteller and Royal Descent. Foreteller looks held having finished eighth at Caulfield while Royal Descent has finished runner-up in her last four races. She is partnered by Glen Boss from barrier three and should run her usual game race. Fawkner and Sacred Falls look the big two here with Adelaide’s chances depending on how he copes with his wide berth.

Sacred Falls @6.00 Sportsbet*

*Special bet – stakes refunded up to a maximum $100 if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

Lingfield Tuesday Preview

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Flat racing fans are clinging on to the dying embers of the turf season but the action continues throughout the winter on the all-weather tracks. Lingfield stages an eight-race card on Tuesday with the action starting at 2.00.

In the opening race I like the chances of Compton Mill after his promising debut at Newbury. Not a great deal was expected of Hughie Morrison’s colt that day and he started at 33-1 under John Fahy. After settling at the rear, he moved through in the closing stages to finish fourth behind Yeenaan.

The form received a boost when the runner-up Stoked cruised home at Nottingham last week and Yeenaan won again on Monday. As Compton Mill was only a couple of lengths behind those two, he should be good enough to win his maiden before moving on to better things. His dam was the tough mare Classic Millennium who won numerous mile and a half handicaps so he should make up into a decent middle-distance horse.

Newbury form is again on show in the second where Perceus is fitted with a hood after finishing third in a Conditions race. He did finish seven lengths behind Snoano and he could have a race on his hands with Taysh who also shaped encouragingly at Newcastle. I wouldn’t want to take too short a price about the Tregoning runner.

Reaffirmed is trying to complete a hat-trick for Ed Vaughan in the sprint at 3.30 and I think he may be up to the task. He has taken a long time to discover what racing is all about but Luke Morris has made a great job of settling him in his most recent outings. He weaved through a narrow gap up the fence to win at Wolverhampton and then followed up under a penalty at Kempton.

He looked to have a lot to do that night when turning in but closed down the leaders in a matter of strides and needed to be driven out to win by a short-head. Some reports suggest that he held his head high in the closing stages but I think that is harsh and I think he can get the better of Findhorn Magic.

Finally, I like the chances of David Lanigan’s filly Sequester in the 5.00 race. She got off the mark here in August and should have followed up at Wolverhampton. David Allan rode her that day and found himself trapped on the rail turning in. He managed to extricate her to the outside but the post came in time for 50-1 shot Polar Forest. The winner has since won at Nottingham and Redcar so Sequester is worth another chance.

Compton Mill 2.00 @6-5 Betfair

Reaffirmed 3.30 @85-40 Bet Victor

Sequester 5.00 @9-2 Bet Victor

Bath Sunday Preview

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As predicted, Champions Day proved more of a mud bath than a bloodbath for punters as the heavy ground produced several shock results. Charm Spirit was our only saviour at a generous SP of 5-1 but the big race went to Frankel’s full-brother Noble Mission. There is no illusion of grandeur about Sunday’s offering at Bath but I have picked out a trio of interesting runners.

The Fillies’ Handicap at 2.00 looks as though it should rest between Jethou and Gharaaneej. The latter is trained by John Gosden and has been runner-up on her last two starts, chasing home Nathr in the same colours at Leicester. This is the first time that she has raced over a mile and there is a slight question mark about her getting the trip. Her dam did not win beyond five furlongs, although she shapes as though she will stay.

That doubt just sways me towards Henry Candy’s Jethou Island who was fourth in a Kempton maiden auction race last time. She was beaten five lengths but the runner-up was Andrew Balding’s Geordan Murphy who easily won a maiden next time. Jethou Island would have been third in another stride or two and had to be pulled around runners to deliver her challenge. She could be the better value at around 9-2.

Another maiden with claims in a handicap for the first time is Balding’s Bikini Island. The daughter of Dynaformer races in a hood but lacked nothing in courage last time out when just beaten on the nod by The Character at Chester. She settled perfectly for David Probert that day having pulled away her chance on her previous outing. I like the way she travelled and this similarly turning track should suit her perfectly.

The one that I fear most is Headline News who has been running in better quality races. She came up against a decent sort in Rewaaya at Newmarket but the big weight concession to Bikini Island could prove too much.

My final selection is Le Maitre Chat who gave a perfect demonstration of why jockeys should not go for a run up the inside at Ascot last time. Jim Crowley tried to find a way up the inside of Quest For More and had the door slammed shut before a similar manoeuvre on that horse’s outside also failed to find daylight. By the time he got out it was all over and he must go close off only a 1lb higher mark. The form threat is See And Be Seen who beat the subsequent Cesarewitch winner Big Easy at Newmarket last time and is only up 4lbs.

Jethou Island 2.00 @9-2 Bet Victor

Bikini Island 3.05 @5-1 Paddy Power

Le Maitre Chat 3.35 @5-2 Paddy Power

Caulfield Cup Review

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Admire Rakti defied top weight to land the Caulfield Cup for Japan under an inspired ride from Zac Purton, defeating Rising Romance and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The winner was thought to be a more likely candidate for the two-mile Melbourne Cup for which he is now the clear 5-1 favourite. Lucia Valentina confirmed the form of her recent win in the Turnbull Stakes with the Peter Moody-trained pair Brambles and Lidari running almost pound for pound in fourth and sixth respectively. The concern for supporters of Lucia Valentina at Flemington will be whether she will see out the two miles.

The British challenge was reduced to Marco Botti’s Seismos following the defection of stable companion Dandino through lameness. Seismos was scrubbed along early in the race to try to get a position from the one barrier but quickly back-peddled when the race began in earnest.

Although Admire Rakti was impressive, there are two obvious factors why the current odds make no appeal. He will almost certainly receive a penalty for the Melbourne Cup and the draw could always go against him. Zac Purton had described him as “hit and miss” before the race, hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the horse’s consistency.

Ironically, punters had plunged on the other Japanese hope Bande who was withdrawn under veterinary advice at the eleventh hour. He could now be re-routed to the Melbourne Cup but, as with Dandino, you don’t really want injury problems so close to a big race.

Protectionist, promoted to favourite after finishing fourth in the Herbert Power, is now quoted at 8-1. The form of that race was not exactly boosted by the winner Big Memory who could finish only tenth in the Caulfield Cup. The German horse impressed Craig Williams and has form over extreme distances but he has never been the easiest horse to keep sound and would not be risked on firm ground.

The challenge from Britain and Ireland is pretty low key this year following disappointments with strongly fancied runners in previous years. Perhaps their best prospect of a victory lies with Irish runner Mutual Regard, trained by recently-retired top jockey Johnny Murtagh. The five-year-old son of Hernando has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in August. Murtagh decided to keep him fresh for the Melbourne Cup and everything has gone well in the build-up to the race. He could still represent some each-way value at around 20-1.

Mutual Regard (Melbourne Cup) @20-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Ascot Saturday Preview

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If the forecasts of doom prove correct, the runners at Ascot on Saturday will be strung out like three-mile chasers. The going was officially described as heavy by midweek and more rain is forecast across the UK.

After Friday’s supposed “Future Champions’ Day” at Newmarket where a sharp pin would have had more chance of yielding a profit than a form book, can we expect more of the same on Saturday? There is certainly something wrong with the race planning in trying to promote these racecards as the cream of racing when they are invariably run on soft ground. The decision to move the Champion Stakes from Newmarket was a bad one and the attempt to build a supporting card around it is looking very dubious.

We have previewed the big race separately and expect Cirrus des Aigles to fly the flag for France with Noble Mission most likely to follow him home. If the feature race is struggling to live up to its title, the QE II does at least provide an interesting clash between 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder and his Longchamp conqueror Charm Spirit. It is a measure of the strength of Richard Hannon’s mile division that he has been forced to take out Toronado and Olympic Glory but still saddles the favourite.

Charm Spirit got first run on Night Of Thunder last time but looks the sort to keep pulling out more. I wouldn’t be confident of Hannon’s colt gaining his revenge and will side with Olivier Peslier’s mount. The Fillies & Mares provides Albasharah with the chance to follow up her Newmarket win from last weekend. She has an extra two furlongs to travel here and it may just pay to side with Silk Sari who has bottomless stamina.

The sprint race looks like a good opportunity for G Force to land yet another major prize for David O’Meara. He was unlucky in the Nunthorpe and gained handsome compensation in the Haydock Sprint Trophy. Soft ground should not be a worry and he may have most to fear from Viztoria who was third here last year.

In the opening stayers race I am going to take a chance on Pallasator, if only because he is built like a chaser and should handle the ground. In the closing Balmoral Handicap I have gone through the form and Gabrial’s Kaka looks a cracking bet at a big price. He won the Spring Mile at Newbury and was also a good third at Sandown. He now finds himself more than a stone better off with Velox. He was badly hampered in the Cambridgeshire and the form could easily be turned on its head. It wouldn’t be the first time this week!

Pallasator 1.45 @8-1 Paddy Power

G Force 2.20 @9-2 888Sport

Silk Sari 2.55 @5-1 Bet Victor

Charm Spirit 3.30 @7-2 Skybet

Cirrus des Aigles 4.05 @13-8 Coral

Gabrial’s Kaka 4.45 @33-1 Coral

Champion Stakes Preview

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The Group 1 Champion Stakes is the feature race on Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday with a maximum field of eleven. That number is likely to be reduced further after persistent rained turned the going to heavy by midweek.

The quality of the race is certainly not up to standard following the enforced retirement of Derby winner Australia. Several other leading contenders have also fallen by the wayside and second favourite Free Eagle could join them unless the going improves by Saturday morning. Dermot Weld has already said that his lightly-raced colt will not be risked on heavy ground.

One trainer who is not overly concerned by the weather is Madame Barande-Barbe who has aimed Cirrus Des Aigles at this race for some time. Formerly the top rated racehorse in the world, the eight-year-old won this race in 2011 and has finished runner-up for the past two seasons. He has been first past the post in his last four races, although he was subsequently disqualified at Longchamp for causing interference.

His winning margin of a head over Fractional is not earth-shattering form but it was his first run since beating Flintshire in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in the summer. He pulled up with an injury that day and will surely improve for his comeback race. Last year’s Derby winner Ruler Of The World gained his first win since his classic triumph when winning the Prix Foy under a front-running ride from Frankie Dettori. He was unable to repeat that effort in the Arc when finishing fifth behind Treve and I am not convinced that he really likes deep ground.

Noble Mission has lived under the tag of Frankel’s brother throughout his racing career but has not done too badly himself. He is probably not within 20lbs of his brother but could follow his sibling into the history books in this prestigious race. He has won two Group 1 races this season and was just beaten in a slog last time out. He has been the mainstay of Lady Cecil’s yard in a disappointing season and will put up his usual game display.

Free Eagle has a lot to prove even if he does run and it is very difficult to make a case for anything else. Al Kazeem does not seem to be the force that he was last season while Sheikhzayedroad and Pethers Moon are grand servants to their respective connections but have never looked up to Group 1 class. Cirrus Des Aigles may be in the autumn of his illustrious career but he should still be too good for these.

Cirrus Des Aigles @6-4 Skybet