Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Caulfield Guineas Preview

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It is Guineas weekend at Caulfield and the big race is preceded by the Thousand Guineas on Saturday.

The Melbourne Racing Club’s decision to move the Group 1 Thousand Guineas to the Saturday is looking questionable after only eleven runners were declared. The option for runners from the Flight Stakes to run here has been virtually removed with only a week between races.

The favourite here is Go Indy Go, winner of last season’s Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick. Lumosty won her maiden race by nine lengths and has been all the rage this week with Craig Williams on board. Bring Me The Maid looks well drawn in barrier four and Peter Moody is hoping for an improved display in first-time blinkers after the filly flopped in the Guineas Prelude.

The winner that day was Afleet Esprit who could provide Damien Oliver with a sixth Thousand Guineas victory. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig’s star filly has only been out of the frame once in six starts and looks better value than the favourite.

Rich Enuff is the one horse that punters want to know in the Caulfield Guineas and his price has contracted to around 5-4 despite a wide draw. The son of Written Tycoon has not been prevented from winning in his last two starts by a similar disadvantage and has plenty of speed from the gate.

Gai Waterhouse has been quite bullish about the prospects of Almalad this week but she must have been disheartened to learn of his draw on the wide outside in stall 13. Almalad has chalked up victories in the J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm and the Bill Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley. Waterhouse is confident that he will prove good enough to take his chance in the Cox Plate but he will need to run a big race on Saturday to win from his draw.

Looks Like The Cat has finished runner-up to Rich Enuff on his last two starts and should run his usual game race but the one I think that could cause an upset is Shooting To Win. He was very impressive when beating Scissor Kick by three lengths in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes last time out. Barrier eight puts him on the inside of the fancied horses and he should be able to stay clear of trouble.

Shooting To Win (Caulfield Guineas) @7.50 Sportsbet

Afleet Esprit (Thousand Guineas) @6.0 Sportsbet

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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After a hectic weekend of top quality racing we are back to the bread and butter at Nottingham on Wednesday. As good as it was to see Treve go into the history books with her back-to-back Arc success, I have to say that I was less than impressed with the Japanese riders. You would have thought that they would know how to ride the race after many years of trying but they gave their mounts no chance by holding them up way out the back.

The more humble offerings at Nottingham get under way at 2.20 with a maiden race which should go the way of Luca Cumani and Andrea Atzeni. Spiriting ran a good race on his second start when second at Yarmouth behind Bartel. Firmament finished a fair way back in fourth that day and ran a good race on Monday to finish second to the useful Master Apprentice. A repeat of that form would make Spiriting very hard to beat here.

The second race is a very competitive nursery but there is no stopping David O’Meara at the moment. His Group 1 win in the Prix de L’Abbaye on Sunday with Move In Time was the icing on the cake for a memorable season. He runs Snow Cloud who showed enormous improvement after a lengthy absence to beat Compton River at Redcar. The jockey never had to resort to the whip that day so there should be plenty more to come. The main danger could be the top weight Ivors Rebel who has been keeping much better company.

The best bet on the card could be the progressive Black Granite in the nine furlong nursery at 4.25. Jeremy Noseda’s gelding looked very moderate earlier in the season but the application of a visor has transformed him. A game victory at Salisbury was followed by an emphatic success at Newmarket. Normally I would hesitate at a 9lbs rise in the weights but there aren’t that many two-year-olds that stay beyond a mile and he is certainly one of them.

The final three races look virtually impossible but I am going to have a small interest in Golden Spear in the 4.25. He is yet to race beyond a mile but his last couple of runs suggest that he is crying out for it. The danger is probably Tercel who is on a very fair mark for Sir Michael Stoute and looked set to win at Newbury last time. He didn’t look the easiest of rides that day and Ryan Moore will probably be looking to deliver him with a late rattle.

Spiriting 2.20 @Bet365

Snow Cloud 2.50 @5-1 Bet365

Black Granite 4.25 @11-4 Bet365

Golden Spear 5.25 @11-1 Coral

Racing Preview Oct 4th

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Charter (tipped at 11-2) and Telmeyd (2-1) got us off to a flying start at Ascot on Friday. Unfortunately Ryan Moore arrived a fraction late on Consign and the photograph also went against us with Marzocco.

Once again the race planners have given us an embarrassment of riches with Group race action at Ascot and Newmarket as well as day 1 of the Arc meeting. Having previewed the Arc separately, I am going to concentrate on the big races in the UK on Saturday starting with Ascot.

Muthmir has been a good friend to this column with victories at York and Doncaster this season. He has fully justified the belief that he is a potential Group class sprinter and moves up to Listed class in the opening race at 2.05. Predictably, the bookmakers are running scared after being hit by this horse in the past so he is no great value. However, rather like Tiggy Wiggy last week, there is no reason to desert him.

Prince’s Trust stands out in the big handicap and should provide a winner for Her Majesty The Queen. He hacked up at Yarmouth and his victims included Outback Traveller who won with similar ease here on Friday. The handicapper has given him a 12lb hike but Cam Hardie reduces that by 3lbs and Haggas looks to have saved him for this event.

I must also put in a word for my old friend Dungannon in the last race. He could never get to B Fifty One who flew out of stall 1 at Chester last time but this is Dungannon’s time of year. He is racing off 92, a mark that should see him back in the winner’s enclosure before the end of the season.

Over at Newmarket they are staging a couple of those big sales races. I can understand the concept to encourage people to buy at Tattersalls but the prize money dished out is quite obscene for the quality of the actual races. The first race wouldn’t be out of place at Nottingham on a Monday and yet there is £300,000 going begging.

I am going to take a chance with Invincible Gold in the 2.20 race. Strictly on the form book he shouldn’t beat some of these but I think he is a nice colt and the likes of Heartbreak Hero and Secret Brief could be over-rated. Ed Walker did us a favour with Dark Wave (tipped at 11-1 on Thursday) and he should give us a run for our money.

The same applies to Majestic Manner in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at 2.55. She caught my eye when running on well in a Windsor maiden and won nicely last time out after racing prominently. Her dam was useful and she could dent a few lofty reputations here.

Finally, I am going to go for Esoterique to win the Sun Chariot Stakes for France. Andre Fabre also runs Fintry and Guineas winner Miss France but I think Esoterique’s form is stronger.

Muthmir 2.05 Ascot @6-4 Bet365

Prince’s Trust 3.50 Ascot @11-2 BetVictor

Dungannon 5.00 Ascot @8-1 William Hill

Invincible Gold 2.20 Newmarket @12-1 Paddy Power

Majestic Manner 2.55 Newmarket @12-1 Coral

Esoterique 3.30 Newmarket @6-1 Sportingbet

Ascot Friday Preview

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Ascot stages a decent card on Friday to whet the appetite for a big racing weekend on the turf.

Michael Wigham does well with his small string and Charter can follow up his recent Newmarket victory in the opening race. He was given a patient ride by Jim Crowley and ran on late to win over six furlongs that day but has form over seven. A 4lb rise may not be sufficient to prevent a follow up Crowley can navigate his way through this large field.

Ryan Moore rode a perfect race on Consign to get up in the dying strides over a mile last time out and he teams up with Jeremy Noseda’s gelding in the 2.30 race. He has to give weight to all of his rivals here but won at the corresponding meeting last year. Moore will try to keep him covered up again here. Kempton winner Compton has claims, as does Secret Art who was second in a good handicap at the same venue but is not the most reliable horse in training.

Stefanie Hofer had a nightmare ride on Telmeyd on Shergar Cup day when he reared leaving the stalls, giving his rivals a six-lengths advantage. To his credit, the horse made up much of the ground before the effort took its toll and he finished fourth. He was behind Golden Steps that day but I would be surprised if he cannot turn the tables on Friday. Ryan Moore has a fine book of rides and this will be one of his most fancied.

The feature race is the Noel Murless Stakes over the St Leger distance. On form, Leger fifth Marzocco should win this for John Gosden and William Buick. He has run creditably all season including when an unlucky third in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. He holds Big Orange on that form but a bigger danger may come from Mizzou, trained by Luca Cumani. He looked to be going nowhere at Haydock last time but stayed on relentlessly to win off a mark of 89. He has a lot more to do here but could still be improving.

Above The Rest looks worth following in the fifth race after making all to win at Newbury. He is up 5lbs but had the field in trouble a furlong from home and does not look harshly treated with 8st 12lb. Ryan Moore will again be popular in the last race on Alan King’s Fire Fighter but I’m just siding with Jelly Fish and Amanda Perrett. He is not the quickest horse to carry the Abdullah silks by any means but was beaten by a rapidly improving horse in Moscato last time out.

Charter 2.00 @11-2 Coral

Consign 2.30 @8-1 Coral

Telmeyd 3.05 @2-1 Ladbrokes

Marzocco 3.40 @13-8 Coral

Above The Rest 4.15 @6-1 Ladbrokes

Jelly Fish 4.50 @7-2 Bet365

Kempton Thursday Preview

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The end of the flat turf season is rapidly approaching but there is still plenty of decent quality action on the all-weather at Kempton this week.

Thursday’s eight-race card includes some interesting handicaps that are worth having a close look at. Nurseries are notoriously difficult to unscramble but I like the look of Dark Wave in the 6.15 for Ed Walker.

He showed very little in his first three starts but was given a peach of a ride by Graham Lee to win at Redcar when stepped up to a mile last time out. He weaved his way through horses and only needed to push his mount out to win by a length and three-quarters. He has a 6lbs penalty but must go well if he adapts to this surface.

There are many dangers including the top weight Dutch Portrait who was not far behind the progressive Rosalie Bonheur at Salisbury last time. Prince Of Paris is another improver who looked slightly unlucky when beaten under top weight here last time.

Moonfaarid is making his handicap debut for Mick de Kock in the 6.45 and could get off the mark against some modest opposition. He and Zain Empire are the least exposed in the field and he may just have needed the run when beaten here last time. He moved up menacingly to make his challenge turning for home but his effort petered out behind The Steward.

The winner is strongly fancied to follow up for Sir Mark Prescott in the following race at 7.15.  He looked beaten early in the straight but rallied strongly. If Moonfaarid goes well in the 6.45, The Steward could look very well handicapped. Prescott’s team are just hitting form with several winners in the past couple of weeks. The danger may well be Barnmore who is a regular fixture at this meeting and won well last time out.

My final bet of the day is on the top weight Peace Accord in the closing race at 9.15. I had intended supporting Aragosta for James Fanshawe and Hayley Turner after their unlucky defeat at Wolverhampton last time. I am just swayed by the fact that Peace Accord is going back up to seven furlongs after finding six too sharp at Pontefract. He was just too far out of his ground that day to complete his four-timer but should be more at home over this trip.

Dark Wave 6.15 @11-1 BetVictor

Moonfaarid 6.45 @6-1 Bet365

The Steward 7.15 @85-40 BetVictor

Peace Accord 9.15 @4-1 Betfair

Arc de Triomphe Preview

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The Group 1 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp is the big International race this weekend with a field of 20 set to go to post.

Many of the big names are missing including Derby winner Australia but there is a string of classic winners and Group 1 performers lining up. Taghrooda is almost favourite by default and there is a feeling that she may have peaked in mid-summer with her convincing King George win. That followed a comfortable success in the Epsom Oaks but she wasn’t her usual self when beaten by Tapestry in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Gosden will be hoping that the forecast for good ground is correct as the going has often turned soft at Longchamp in recent Arcs. That wouldn’t suit Taghrooda who has shown all of her form on good ground.

Prix Niel winner Ectot seems to be carrying plenty of confidence after winning on his first start for five months. If you are on at 50-1 that’s great but I wouldn’t be tempted at a miserly 6-1. I like French Oaks winner Avenir Certain who was an easy winner at Deauville last time out but this will be her first race at a mile and a half. Her dam did not really stay beyond seven furlongs and that just puts me off, especially if she is to be held up in such a big field.

I can’t have Treve at any price after a couple of mulish performances and I don’t believe that Ruler Of The World is any better than last year when seventh in the Arc de Triomphe. Frankie Dettori had things his own way in the Trial but this looks a lot tougher.

Surprisingly, the Japanese are yet to win this race but they have three fancied runners. I’m going to side with two of them. Just A Way was breath-taking when winning at Dubai in the spring and has had one warm-up race over a mile in soft ground. Connections admit that he is at his best over a mile and a quarter but he would certainly have stayed another couple of furlongs at Meydan.

Harp Star beat Gold Ship last time out and should defeat the grey again here. She was runner-up in the Japanese Oaks in May when she was given a ridiculous amount of ground to make up in the straight. I am worried about the tactics with her but hopefully they will keep her closer to the pace. The draw is always fascinating for the Arc and that could change the picture but I’m siding with the Japanese duo at the current prices.

Just A Way @7-1 Bet365

Harp Star @8-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (non-runner no bet applies)