Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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Betcirca followers had a great time on Saturday at Newmarket with a profit of more than 20 points on our five selections. Rosalie Bonheur (5-1), Elm Park (3-1) and Tiggy Wiggy (6-4) won the first three races before our Cambridgeshire selections both reached the frame at big prices.

The racing is of a more modest nature at Nottingham on Wednesday but there are a couple of handicaps that are worth taking a look at. The mile and a quarter Middle Distance Series Final at 3.45 sees the reappearance of impressive Sandown winner Raise Your Gaze.

Clive Cox provided us with a winner on Saturday in Rosalie Bonheur, one in three on the day and seven in a week for the Lambourn trainer. Raise Your Gaze is up 6lbs for beating Beakers N Num Nums by two lengths at Sandown and the runner-up has an 8lbs pull. In theory, that could be enough to bring them together but I liked the style of Raise Your Gaze’s victory.

I fancied the favourite Shama’s Crown that day but he was left flat-footed in third when Clive Cox’s grey swept to the front. With the stable in such great form, I will stick with him confirming the form. The best of the rest may be Donny Rover who is tough and consistent.

I am also going to recommend keeping faith with another improving handicapper in Triple Chocolate who is seeking a four-timer in the sprint at 4.50. Roger Ingram has placed him very skilfully to win at Windsor, Newmarket and Haydock.

He is one of those horses that is very difficult for the handicapper to assess as he only does just enough to win. He looked absolutely flat out to get up close home at Newmarket over six furlongs in August so was only raised 4lbs next time. Once again he looked in difficulty with a furlong to travel but kept responding to Jimmy Quinn to run down an in-form horse in Poyle Vinnie. He has been raised a further 5lbs but he is attractively priced and should give us a good run for our money.

There are plenty of dangers including the hat-trick seeking Amadeus Wolf Tone. It may be significant that Kieren Fallon is booked to ride him while Rocket Rob went into a few notebooks when flashing home at Sandown last time out. He’s unlikely to be improving at the age of eight but Willie Musson is a master at getting wins out these old handicappers and he has each-way claims.

Raise Your Gaze 3.45 Nottingham @4-1 Paddy Power

Triple Chocolate 4.50 Nottingham @13-2 William Hill

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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It’s Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket and the result of the consolation race on Friday indicated that there is no clear draw bias. That does not really help us with 35 runners to sort through but I’ve picked out a couple for each-way interest.

Niceofyoutotellme won at Newmarket in the spring for Ralph Beckett, his first start since running a dismal race in the consolation race at the corresponding meeting. That was his first run in a hood and the headgear was left on at Ascot in June when he ran a fair race to finish ninth in the Royal Hunt Cup. He was held up towards the rear at Goodwood last time and was never likely to get involved but a couple of months off should have freshened him up for this race.

My second selection is Buckstay who is well weighted with Extremity on Goodwood form. He was beaten a short-head by that horse over a mile trying to concede 10lbs in July and is now weighted to receive 1lb from the Hugo Palmer runner. There is a huge disparity in the odds for the duo, probably because of Buckstay’s modest third last time at Kempton. Maxime Guyon is an interesting booking for Peter Chapple-Hyam’s runner.

There appears to be plenty of confidence behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Sandy Cay in the opening nursery but I am sticking with Rosalie Bonheur after her game win at Salisbury. She was never travelling better than at the finish of that seven-furlong contest and she can complete a hat-trick for Clive Cox.

It has been a sad week for the Balding family with the passing of legendary National Hunt trainer Toby. He was no mean trainer on the flat either and was equally adept at educating jockeys, as Tony McCoy will testify. I am hoping that the family will have cause for minor celebration with the promising Elm Park in the Royal Lodge, although Nafaqa is the obvious threat. His Doncaster form looks smart after Toocoolforschool won the Mill Reef so easily last week.

Tiggy Wiggy should win the Cheveley Park but is not great value after a long season. Windshear ran a lifeless race at Newmarket today for the Hannon team after a similarly exhausting campaign.

There is a typically competitive card over at Haydock and I must give Chilworth Icon a mention in the big sprint. I tipped him for the Portland Handicap recently and he was a fast-finishing fifth. I am a bit worried that this five furlongs will be on the sharp side but he’s in great form and should go well at a good price.

Rosalie Bonheur 2.0 Newmarket @5-1 Paddy Power

Elm Park 2.35 Newmarket @3-1 BetVictor

Tiggy Wiggy 3.10 Newmarket @11-10 Bet365

Niceofyoutotellme 3.50 Newmarket @16-1 William Hill (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5)

Buckstay 3.50 Newmarket @33-1 Ladbrokes (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5)

Chilworth Icon 4.10 Haydock @14-1 Bet365 (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4)

Moir Stakes Preview

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Lankan Rupee bids to restore his tarnished reputation in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley following his shock defeat in the McEwen Stakes.

His conqueror Angelic Light is among just four rivals for the 1400m event with Lankan Rupee a long odds-on favourite to gain his revenge. The son of Redoubte’s Choice remains the highest rated sprinter in the world and some impressive track work earlier in the week has convinced connections that he is ready to return to winning ways.

Mick Price’s stable star was suffering only the second defeat in seven career starts in the McEwen Stakes. There were slight concerns about the gelding’s fitness before the race and it may be that he was simply a gallop short. Price was delighted with his work on Monday morning when easing clear of stable companion Lion Of Belfort over 1000m.

Lankan Rupee’s victories in the Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket Handicap and TJ Smith Stakes completed a Group 1 hat-trick and elevated him to the top of the sprinting tree. Jockey Craig Newitt has been in the saddle for all bar one of his races and rode Samaready to win this race a year ago for the same trainer.

Robbie Griffiths produced Angelic Light for a 20-1 shock but the five-year-old mare will surely struggle to confirm the form over the longer distance against a race-fit favourite. Buffering won the Moir in 2012 and finished runner-up last season. Robert Heathcote’s gelding has not won since November but was only two lengths adrift of Lankan Rupee in the TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick in heavy ground. This will be his first run since May when third in the Doomben 10,000.

Rebel Dane also has a Group 1 to his name having claimed the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last year. He has ground to make up on both Lankan Rupee and Buffering on form and a place looks the best Craig Williams can hope for here.

There is no value to be had by betting on Lankan Rupee but Sunday’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield looks far more open. Peter Moody’s Dissident tops the market after back-to-back Group 1 victories. He looks to have secured a perfect pitch in barrier five for Luke Nolen.

The big danger could be Sweet Idea who swerved a clash with Lankan Rupee in the Moir Stakes for Gai Waterhouse. She was beaten by Dissident and there seems no obvious reason why she should gain her revenge here. Surprisingly, the two are very closely matched in the betting and Dissident offers much the better value.

Dissident – Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes @7.0 Sportsbet

Newmarket Friday Preview

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Pallasator (13-8) and Mohatem (6-4) gave us a handy double on Thursday on the opening day of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket. The quality shifts up a gear on Friday with two Group 2 races on a very competitive eight-race card starting at 1.40.

The opening Listed race looks like developing into a battle between Ryan Moore on Provenance and William Buick on Belle D’Or. Although both fillies have excellent form in the book, neither looks the easiest of rides. Sir Michael Stoute had to resort to the hood for Provenance after her disappointing Sandown defeat and Moore rode a very clever race on her to win at Haydock. I got the impression that there is more to come from the well-bred filly and she could just grab the spoils.

Lucida looks the class act in the Rockfel Stakes at 2.40 following her unlucky second in the Moyglare Stud Stakes behind Cursory Glance. The winner got first run on her that day and she ran on well to be beaten only a neck. If she reproduces that effort she should win.

There are some talented milers assembled for the Group 2 Joel Stakes including Outstrip in the blue of Godolphin. He was a smart two-year-old and treated The Great Gatsby with contempt at Doncaster before winning at the Breeders’ Cup. He has come up against Kingman in his last two races and finished within three lengths or so. The danger is the rapidly improving Wannabe Yours who had to be switched around runners to score at Goodwood. Both look worthy of support at decent prices.

Windshear just missed out on a place in the St Leger and ought to gain compensation in the Godolphin Stakes at 3.45. Hopefully he hasn’t forgotten how to win after finishing second four times in a row previously but he has much the best form.

We round off the day with a couple to cheer on in the Silver Cambridgeshire at 5.00. The sensible thing to do is probably to sit this one out and see if there is any significant draw advantage for Saturday’s big race but I’m going to take an each-way interest in Mange All and Sheila’s Buddy.

Mange All ran well last time out to beat all bar The Corsican at Doncaster. He has a slightly shorter trip here and should run well. Sheila’s Buddy was second here a year ago and his recent third at Newbury looked suspiciously like a prep run for another tilt at this big handicap.

Provenance 1.40 @3-1 Betfair

Lucida 2.40 @11-8 Bet365

Wannabe Yours 3.15 @11-2 William Hill

Outstrip 3.15 @9-1 BetVictor

Windshear 3.45 @6-4 Coral

Mange All 5.00 @5-1 Bet365

Sheila’s Buddy 5.00 @25-1 Coral (each-way)

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Newmarket Thursday Preview

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The Cambridgeshire meeting gets under way on Thursday with the Somerville Tattersall Stakes being the main event at 3.40.

Although there are only eight runners, this looks quite an open contest. My regular readers will know that William Haggas has done us several favours this season and he sets a poser here with two runners. Mubtaghaa won a big sales race at York and had stable companion Valley Of Fire just under three lengths behind in third.

The pair meet again over a furlong further here and it’s not easy to see which will come out on top. Valley Of Fire was having only his second race and became the meat in the sandwich in the closing stages. Make It Up made all to win at Goodwood last time and looks the obvious choice to lead again here. I am going to take a chance on Azraff who impressed me with the style of his last two victories.

Marco Botti’s colt was always going best at Newmarket when accounting for Persun by two lengths and then stepped up to a mile at Newcastle. Martin Harley found himself in front far sooner than intended, simply because the horse took him there. Admittedly he did idle in the closing stages but I think a strongly run seven furlongs could see him improve again.

The opening maiden race can go to Mohatem, trained by Barry Hills and ridden by Paul Hanagan. He made his debut in the Doncaster race won by Commemorative and I like the way he stayed on that day. He clashes again with Game Pie (fourth) and Secateur (eighth) but I think he will beat them both. Hanagan was only pushing him out inside the final furlong but he stayed on nicely in fifth and should take this with normal improvement.

Sir Mark Prescott looks to have found a winning opportunity for Pallasator in the Rose Bowl at 4.15. The five-year-old is now owned by Qatar Racing but disappointed in the Irish St Leger last time. It was a muddling race and Brown Panther stole a march on his rivals in the home straight. If we ignore that run, Pallasator has major claims on his run in the Ebor when fourth under a big weight. Flying Officer could be dangerous for John Gosden but Times Up was very disappointing in the Doncaster Cup last time.

Mohatem 2.00 Newmarket @6-4 Betfair

Azraff 3.40 Newmarket @7-1 Paddy Power

Pallasator 4.15 Newmarket @13-8 BetVictor

Goodwood Wednesday Preview

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Air Pilot (9-2) gave us a profit on Saturday although we were out of luck in the Ayr Gold Cup with Blaine finishing only third. Air Pilot is now favourite for Saturday’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket and we shall be previewing that race later in the week.

Goodwood holds an interesting midweek card on Wednesday with our old friend Grandeur returning to one of his happy hunting grounds. Jeremy Noseda’s grey won this race a year ago and has been busy clocking up the air miles since.

He has been running consistently in Grade 1 races in America and was unlucky not to come back with at least one victory. Noseda blamed Gary Stevens for an ill-judged ride when fourth in the Manhattan Stakes and Grandeur received a hefty bump last time when beaten in a photo in the Bowling Green Handicap.

If he is anything like that kind of form on Wednesday, he should beat Danadana on level weights. There must be a slight concern about fitness after a 74-day absence but he has only been defeated once in four races at the Sussex course and is difficult to oppose.

Dissolution gets an opportunity to restore his reputation after being beaten favourite in his last two starts for Sir Michael Stoute. He ran a race full of promise at Newbury on his debut but has since been beaten at York and Haydock. James Doyle had to give him a smack after only a furlong last time and a visor is being tried on Wednesday. He ran on strongly but could not catch Lord Ben Stack. The winner could turn out to be useful and the third was left trailing by five lengths so Dissolution gets one more chance.

One horse that has already been transformed by the headgear is Ganymede. Eve Johnson Houghton applied the blinkers at Kempton where he ran out a most impressive winner before following up at Salisbury. He had previously raced too keenly over longer trips but seems to be settling much better in the blinkers. A 7lbs hike in the weights was inevitable after a couple of facile victories but I’m sure he can go well here for Jim Crowley. The big field should not be a concern as the likes of Belle Bayardo can give him a nice lead into the race. The veteran Parisian Pyramid is the danger after his good effort at Epsom last time.

Dissolution 2.40 @Bet365

Grandeur 3.50 @11-10 Paddy Power

Ganymede 4.55 @6-1 Bet365