Tag: Horse Racing Tips

Racing Preview Saturday Sep 20th

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Ayr Gold Cup is the highlight of UK racing on Saturday and this week’s results at the course suggest that a high draw is a big advantage. No horse drawn under ten made it into the first ten home in Friday’s Bronze Cup so there are likely to be a lot of jockeys edging to their right tomorrow.

One who does not have to worry is Amy Ryan who rides recent York winner Blaine. She is drawn in stall 26 so should be able to track along the stands rail to deliver her challenge. Blaine was a promising two-year-old but has had injury problems down the years and is only starting to fulfil his potential.

As you would expect, this is a wide open race and others to look out for could include Go Far and Hawkeyethenoo. Go Far didn’t run badly at all last time in a hot sprint after rattling off a hat-trick while Hawkeyethenoo may be getting a bit long in the tooth but was not beaten far at Ascot last time. He may just be finding six furlongs on the sharp side these days.

Amy also has claims in the Silver Cup with Bogart who is similarly well drawn in stall 25. He has a similar profile to Blaine and ran his best race for some time when chasing home Muthmir in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster. He must have a chance on that form but looks quite high in the weights.

The same applies to Redvers who looked certain to win at Ascot over seven furlongs last time out but was collared by Safety Check. He has got a visor on for the first time in an effort to sharpen him up for this six furlong dash.

A 13 draw is not insurmountable but I just prefer Majestic Moon from stall 24. Richard Fahey is mob-handed in the sprints but this course and distance winner stays seven furlongs and likes to race up with the pace. Lexington Abbey and Huntsmans Close are others with a good draw but the bookmakers have trimmed their prices accordingly.

Winners look very hard to find on Saturday but I am interested in the claims of Air Pilot at Newbury. I don’t know why the five-year-old has not run since finishing second to Farraaj at Epsom but he has presumably had his injury problems with only four career starts. I tipped him at Epsom and he beat all bar the well-handicapped Farraaj by seven lengths and is only up 4lbs. Oison Murphy looks a significant booking and it is worth taking a chance on his fitness.

Majestic Moon (each-way) 2.40 Ayr @16-1 Bet365

Blaine (each-way) 3.50 Ayr @12-1 Paddy Power

Air Pilot 2.55 Newbury @9-2 BetVictor

George Main Stakes Preview 

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The Group 1 George Main Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday is set to be an intriguing clash between trail-blazing Panzer Division and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The last three-year-old to win this race was Viscount in 2001 but plenty of punters believe that Panzer Division will be tough to beat. Paul Messara’s colt was backed from 6-1 to 7-2 earlier in the week and receives weight from all of his rivals. The eight barrier is not ideal but I am more concerned with his lack of experience at this level. This will be only his fourth appearance and he is up against some well-established Group 1 performers.

The pick of them could be Lucia Valentina who came from last to first to beat Tiger Trees decisively in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes last time out. The biggest worry for supporters of the four-year-old is that she did not run well on her second start back last term.

Trainer Kris Lees admits that is a concern, especially with Lucia Valentina not being the most robust of mares. I regard Kerrin McEvoy as one of the best jockeys in the world and he takes the ride on Saturday. Assuming Lucia Valentina is fit and well, she must go close to repeating her Tramway Stakes victory.

The long-term target is apparently the Caulfield Cup, although the shorter Cox Plate could come into consideration if she performs well enough at the weekend and in the Turnbull Stakes. Lucia Valentina already has a Group 1 victory under her belt with the Vinery Stud Stakes. She is well enough drawn in barrier 6 and looks a decent bet at around 5-1.

Chris Waller’s Royal Descent is another Group 1 winner in the field and has run creditably in defeat when second in the Warwick Stakes and Chelmsford Stakes. Sacred Falls has been the best backed horse outside of Panzer Division and could even start favourite on the day. His recent races have been steady if not spectacular but Waller is anticipating some improvement. He has the one stall with Zac Purton flying in for the ride.

The best outsider is Teronado who is in great form at present. He came from way off the pace to finish second at Eagle Farm before winning impressively at Doomben last time out. Those races were in a lower grade but he is perfectly drawn in barrier five and should go well under Chris Munce.

Lucia Valentina @6.0 Bet365

Teronado @18.0 Bet365 (each-way)

Newbury Friday Preview

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The Western meeting at Ayr got under way today as it builds up to the Gold Cup on Saturday. The Bronze Cup looks virtually impossible to solve on Friday but it may be worth noting for clues regarding the draw.

Newbury also stages a good card on Friday with some promising two-year-olds on show. Foreign Diplomat ran well on his debut when third to White Lake at York. I was disappointed that the winner was beaten at Doncaster last week but it still looked a decent maiden and Foreign Diplomat should get us off to a winning start at 1.50.

High Church did this column a favour when winning impressively at Leicester last time out. He had previously been given too much to do when beaten at Salisbury and must have a good chance of defying a 6lbs penalty in the 2.25 race. Saarrem looked very slow when beaten at Lingfield but broke his maiden in the blinkers for John Gosden last time. He could give High Church most to do if the blinkers prove as effective on Friday.

The Haynes, Hanson & Clark Stakes will forever be linked with the great Shergar who won it in 1980. Other previous winners include Henbit, Rainbow Quest and Nayef. I very much doubt that there is anything of that class on show this season but Gibeon did nothing wrong when beating stable mate Acaster Malbis on his debut and is taken to follow up.

There are some nice fillies in the 4.05 race with Marsh Hawk out to recoup losses after being collared on the line at Salisbury last time. She had won by seven lengths on her debut and steps back up in trip. Timba could be the main threat after winning nicely on her debut at Goodwood. Yodelling is difficult to assess after winning a three-runner affair at Kempton and Crystal Zvezda could be anything from the Sir Michael Stoute stable.

Our final tip of the day is for Absolutely So in the Listed seven-furlong race at 4.40. He was a costly failure in the Wokingham earlier in the season but has since shown that he is better at this trip by finishing second at Newmarket and winning at York. He holds Glen Moss on that evidence and a bigger danger may be Safety Check. He looked beaten last time at Ascot but somehow got back up to win. Having supported him in that race I am reluctant to desert him here but Absolutely So just gets the vote.

Foreign Diplomat 1.50 Newbury @Betfair

High Church 2.25 Newbury @9-4 Coral

Gibeon 3.35 Newbury @5-2 Ladbrokes

Marsh Hawk 4.05 Newbury @11-8 Bet365

Absolutely So 4.40 Newbury @11-4 Bet365

Sandown Wednesday Preview

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The weekend racing was top class on all fronts with the St Leger at Doncaster, the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown and the Arc trials in France. George Baker falling out of the side door with the race at his mercy on Cotai Glory pretty much summed up my Doncaster meeting but it is back to the daily bread and butter stuff this week.

The exception is the clash of two potentially top-class two-year-olds at Sandown on Wednesday. Latharnach and Time Test are set to meet over seven furlongs and both colts hold entries for the top two-year-old events later in the year.

Godolphin are yet to find a genuine colt this season and they are still chasing a first Group 1 victory in Europe. Latharnach made his debut in a maiden race at Newmarket that has proved to be a goldmine for punters. Incredibly, nine of the eleven runners have won since including Basateen, Best Of Times and Typhoon Season.

Last season I highlighted the maiden race won by Taghrooda which produced a high percentage of winners but that has been surpassed by the Newmarket race. Ironically, it was won by Lexington Times who has proved to be a very ordinary juvenile. Latharnach duly obliged next time out here and the form has been boosted by Elm Park who finished third.

Time Test made his debut at Newbury and looked set to win easily until weakening in the closing stages behind Stec. Whether it was fitness or inexperience I am not sure but he made no mistake next time out, beating Sweet Dreams comfortably over course and distance. I am siding with Time Test here but both colts should have a future.

My second tip on the card is for Shama’s Crown in the 4.45. Jeremy Noseda’s filly looks very nicely weighted on a line through Pleasant Valley. Shama’s Crown gave that filly a real fright on her debut and she has gone on to win easily off a mark of 78. She is now up to 87 and contests a Listed race at Yarmouth on Wednesday. That surely leaves Shama’s Crown with a great chance off a mark of 80.

Ryan Moore rode her to a comfortable success over a mile last time out at Windsor but she steps back up to a mile and a quarter here.

Time Test 3.05 Sandown Wednesday @5-6 Betfair

Shama’s Crown 4.45 Sandown Wednesday @13-8 Bet365

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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There’s an old saying that winter comes in on the tail of the last horse in the St Leger. That will be good news for fans of jump racing with the season’s final classic due off at 3.50 at Doncaster tomorrow.

The race has a wide open look about this year with a 14-strong field and all sorts of form lines tying them together. Not that it makes finding the winner any easier! The distance is a complete unknown for many of the runners including the favourite Kingston Hill. He has only raced once since the Derby when fourth in the Eclipse and I have reservations about his ability to see out the trip.

The two that interest me from an each-way perspective are Forever Now and Windshear. Both have exhibited a willingness to keep battling way under pressure and should relish the final two furlongs. Windshear looked unlucky behind Snow Sky at Goodwood while Forever Now is closely matched with Alex My Boy and Kings Fete on March Stakes form. They should both give us a good run for our money.

The card opens with the Champagne Stakes and people have been getting very excited about Estidhkaar with a view to next season’s classics. We will know more after he takes on the smart Belardo tomorrow who impressed me when strolling home at Newbury last time. Admittedly Hawkesbury ran with a most peculiar head carriage in second but Belardo looks to have a touch of class and is worth supporting at around 3-1.

Muthmir was a ridiculous price for the Stewards’ Cup and seems to be one of those horses that attracts money every time he races. The trip seems spot on for him in the Portland and it could be worth taking the early 11-2 but I’m also going for Mick Channon’s Chilworth Icon at long odds. He fairly flew up the rail to win at Sandown and the yard have hit form in recent days.

Finally, my old friend Aljamaaheer gets to revert to a more sensible trip in the OLBG Stakes at 3.15. I was very surprised when it was announced that he would be campaigned over six furlongs this season but I suppose he has proved a point with a third in the Diamond Jubilee. He wore blinkers that day but they have now been removed and the going seems to be drying out nicely. That could just give him the edge over old rival Gregorian.

Belardo @3-1 BetVictor

Muthmir @11-2 Boylesports

Chilworth Icon @20-1 Betfair (each-way)

Aljamaaheer @7-4 William Hill

Forever Now @16-1 Bet365

Windshear@8-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

Doncaster Friday Preview

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Favourites were wiped out at Doncaster on Thursday but Blue Waltz (7-2) clawed back some of our outlay.

Friday’s card features the Doncaster Cup with Her Majesty The Queen’s Estimate bidding to get back to winning ways after a good second last time out at York. The former Ascot Gold Cup winner appeared to suffer from the dreaded “Bounce factor” at Goodwood on her previous start when she ran a lifeless race. She went straight to Ascot this year without a prep race and ran her heart out in second place. If she is in the same kind of form on Friday she will be difficult to beat.

She is a very short price and I prefer to side with Times Up who is seeking a third consecutive win in this race. Ed Dunlop has shown that he is a master at preparing these older horses for the big day with the likes of Red Cadeaux. Times Up was behind Estimate at York but that run may have been needed to bring him to his peak.

The card opens with the Flying Childers Stakes over five furlongs. Moonraker looked unlucky last time out when just pipped after a troubled passage. Mick Channon had a winner on Thursday and Moonraker looks worth an each-way bet under Ryan Moore but Cotai Glory has even stronger claims. He had his rivals in trouble a long way out at Goodwood and will presumably try to burn them off from the start again here.

Adventure Seeker ran a fine race at York and looks worth a bet against his elders in the Mallard Handicap. Most of the opposition is fully exposed with the exception of Cumani’s Sir Walter Scott. He could improve on his Ebor effort but Adventure Seeker looks a safer bet.

Muraaqaba looks a worthy favourite for the May Hill Stakes after her game win at Newmarket. The further she went, the better she went that day. Her biggest danger is likely to be the Irish raider Agnes Stewart who finished ahead of subsequent winner Raydara last time out. Whatever the fate of Sir Walter Scott, Cumani should add to Thursday’s double with White Lake at 4.25. He was a 25-1 shot on his debut at York but outstayed the opposition in great style, despite racing wide throughout. He looks like a decent colt but will have to be to see off the likes of Nafaqa and Toolcoolforschool.

Cotai Glory 1.40 @11-2 BetVictor

Moonraker 1.40 @9-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Adventure Seeker 2.10 @5-1 Stan James

Times Up 2.40 @4-1 William Hill

Muraaqaba 3.15 @13-8 Paddy Power

White Lake 4.25 @13-8 Paddy Power