Tag: Horse Racing

Cheltenham Ante-Post Update

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With just two weeks remaining, it’s a good time to take stock of our Cheltenham ante-post portfolio. The news that Sprinter Sacre will not run in the Champion Chase is not really a surprise, given the enormous pressure that Nicky Henderson must have been under.

A horse can almost become too popular so that the public feel as though they own a share in it. I know that David Elsworth always wanted to run Desert Orchid in the Grand National but the risks were just too great with such public property. Hopefully Sprinter Sacre will return safe and well next season.

The plus side is that we advised Sire De Grugy at 25-1 in this column several weeks ago and he is now trading at around 2-1. We also suggested that Le Rocher (Triumph Hurdle) was too big at 14-1 (now 6-1) and the same applies to Last Instalment 6-1 from 14-1 (Gold Cup). Our long-range Gold Cup tips were Silviniaco Conti at 9-1 and Dynaste at 25-1 so we should be in the money somewhere.

Kings Palace 7-2 from 5-1 and Irving (7-2 from 16-1 advised) give us some great chances in the novice events while we have Un Temps Pour Tout (25-1), Red Sherlock (20-1) and Faugheen (10-1) in the Neptune.

The Champion Hurdle has never really captured my imagination this season with My Tent Or Yours, The New One and Hurricane Fly pretty well dominating the market. I like double-figure prices for most festival races and there hasn’t been any great value.

The handicaps are yet to be assessed and I don’t think it is worth spending too much time on them just yet with over 1,000 entries! I have a number of horses in mind but will wait to see how the handicapper treats them. I’ll then be seeking some early value to bolster our healthy looking ante-post book.

Bet365 are already offering NR No Bet on all 27 festival races and I think that is tremendous value. I hope the other firms follow suit shortly!

Champion Chase – Sire De Grugy 25-1

Gold Cup – Last Instalment 14-1, Silviniaco Conti 9-1, Dynaste 25-1

Albert Bartlett – Kings Palace 5-1

Neptune – Un Temps Pour Tout 25-1, Red Sherlock 20-1, Faugheen 10-1

Supreme – Irving 16-1

Triumph Hurdle – Le Rocher 14-1

National Hunt Chase – Foxrock 9-1

Winter Derby Trial Preview

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There is a full programme of racing this weekend for a change with good quality action on the flat and over jumps. Kempton and Newcastle take centre stage but the Winter Derby Trial at Lingfied is also worth a second look.

Jeremy Noseda’s Grandeur leaps out of the page as being in a different class to tomorrow’s rivals. His nine rivals have some decent all-weather form between them but Grandeur has shown himself more than capable in Grade 2 events worldwide and I’ll be disappointed if he is beaten tomorrow.

The son of Verglas was a very decent handicapper as a three-year-old, winning twice at Goodwood and progressing right through the summer. Noseda felt that he would prove ideally suited by racing in America and took him over to the States in the Autumn.

It proved to be an inspired move with victory at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 Twilight Stakes at the first time of asking. He went on from there to finish second in the Hollywood Derby behind Unbridled Comment and rounded off a very profitable stay in America by winning the Grade 2 Hollywood Cup.

Noseda was in no particular rush with him last summer but he showed that he was as good as ever when finishing strongly in second place behind Mukhadram in the Group 2 York Stakes in July. The winner had just come from a fine run in the Eclipse so that was top notch form. The Arlington Million was his next target but he could never get competitive from his wide draw and ran on into seventh place.

He then won easily at Goodwood in Listed company before being sent over to contest the Hong Kong Cup in December. Ryan Moore did not enjoy the best of runs that day but he was not beaten that far behind Akeed Mofeed.

I can’t see any form of that quality in the opposition on Saturday. Robin Hoods Bay was tried at this level after winning a Haydock handicap but struggled. He beat Captain Cat by a head when returning to handicap company while Modernstone has done well for William Knight. I thought she was unlucky to beaten by Castilo Del Diablo in a handicap before reversing the form in a conditions race last time.

Chookie Royale is tough and consistent but the Wolverhampton race he won by seven lengths was a long way short of anything Grandeur has contested. Hajras did finish second to Mull Of Killough at Newmarket two seasons ago but has obviously had problems since.

Grandeur at 9-4 Coral

Meydan Thursday Preview

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There is another top class card at Meydan on Thursday with the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes at 5.35 seeing the second appearance of the season of Certify.

The classy filly was a leading two-year-old and went into the winter among the favourites for the 1000 Guineas. Unfortunately events off the track led to her being banned from racing as a three-year-old and she did not reappear until the Group 2 Cape Verdi over a mile last month.

All of the old sparkle seemed to be there as she L’Amour De Ma Vie, Pearl Of Africa and the very disappointing French filly Flotilla. There seems no reason why any of those should trouble Certify tomorrow, although Flotilla’s run was too bad to be true.

A more likely threat may come from David Simcock’s Moment In Time. The mare is a regular performer at Group 1 level and ran well in the E P Taylor at Woodbine in October. If she is fit enough to do herself justice, she could shake up the favourite.

There are some interesting names lining up for the handicap at 5.00 including the formerly smart juvenile Red Duke. He returned to winning ways last time out for Mick De Kock who also runs Specific Gravity and Alexandra Palace. The latter has only been raised 3lb for his recent victory and should run well. Solar Deity was noted staying on strongly that day and has an extra two furlongs to travel tomorrow.

The favourite is Cat O’Mountain who is unbeaten in five starts on the all-weather. He has to contend with a whopping 13lb and that looks prohibitive. Steeler was third in the 2012 Racing Post Trophy and has not been discredited in two Group 2 races here. Preference is just for Alexandra Palace at the current odds.

The Dubai Millennium Listed Stakes can go to Tasaday who finished runner-up in the Prix De L’Opera at Longchamp last season. She made no show behind Mujaarib, eventually finishing ninth, but is worth another chance on this surface. Dastarhon stayed on well in fourth in the same race and should also be competitive.

Alexandra Palace at 15-1 BetVictor (5.00)

Certify at 8-13 SkyBet (5.35)

Tasaday at 4-1 BetVictor (6.10)

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle Preview

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With Cheltenham now only three weeks away, it is worth scouring the Internet for some great value prices. If you have a Sportsbet account, they are advertising some fantastic prices for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle.

The horse that is a relatively short priced favourite in the UK is Ireland’s Faugheen who is unbeaten after five races. His most recent success came in a Grade 3 at Limerick in December over three miles. Connections are confident that he is quick enough to win over two but are favouring the Neptune at present. Sportsbet have him priced at 10-1 so now is the time to move in if you fancy him strongly.

The Tullow Tank is another Irish raider with top class form and looks likely to run here in preference to the Supreme following his second place behind Vautour. The Willie Mullins-trained winner looks very smart and Ruby Walsh was able to dictate the pace and quicken all the way up the finishing straight. It was no disgrace to finish a staying on second and Cheltenham should provide The Tullow Tank with a sufficient test.

Mullins has several options for this race with Briar Hill and Rathvinden standing out at present. Briar Hill won the Champion Bumper last season but has failed to capture the imagination this season. He has continued winning but without impressing and I could see him being saved for the three-mile Albert Bartlett.

Rathvinden was closing on Deputy Dan when  falling at Warwick and then ran a great race behind Red Sherlock at Cheltenham. The winner kept finding extra and looks a typical Pipe horse that just keeps on going. Sportsbet are showing 20-1 about Red Sherlock and you won’t even get half of that over in the UK.

Pipe also has Saturday’s easy Ascot winner Un Temps Pour Tout in the race. He was only second to Zamdy Man on his hurdling debut and you could tell connections were a little shell-shocked that he was beaten. He put matters straight with an easy win at the weekend and the extra half-mile may have been the key to him. Pipe is going to enter him in handicaps but I cannot see him taking that route unless the handicapper is unusually kind. If you fancy him, take the 25-1 with Sportsbet.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham)

Faugheen at 10-1 Sportsbet

Red Sherlock at 20-1 Sportsbet

Un Temps Pour Tout at 25-1 Sportsbet

BetBright Chase Preview

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I hope you followed our winning tip for Kaylif Aramis at 11-1 on Saturday. I was surprised how comfortably he won and he could be one to keep an eye on if it comes up soft at the festival next month.

Saturday’s BetBright Chase has gone through many different guises but most will remember best as the Racing Post Chase. It has always struck me as a difficult race to quantify as it is neither a Gold Cup or a Grand National Trial. It usually tells us more about the Aintree marathon than forthcoming events at Cheltenham.

A mass of withdrawals owing largely to the continuing heavy ground has left precious little in the way of potential winners at either meeting. Paul Nicholls has left three in the race led by easy Ascot winner Bury Parade. On the bare evidence of his comfortable win over stable companion Grandioso you can see why he is favourite.

He always looked to be travelling best that day and strode away from Grandioso. I’d suggest that he ought to beat the same horse again on the revised terms but it may be worth remembering that he refused to race the time before. You wouldn’t want to be lumping on him too confidently.

Jump City is the third Nicholls horse and he’d have a chance on his second to Planet Of Sound here in January but ran no sort of race last time. Despite his advancing years, the winner is a serious contender here for Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson. Both have a great record in the race and this is by no means the strongest renewal.

Rajdhani Express is surely going to be anchored by his big weight and the Alan King-trained pair make more appeal. Bless The Wings has always threatened to win a decent prize but you’d just like to see him finish one of his races better. Midnight Appeal ran well last time under a big weight but I’m just worried that this is coming up too quickly.

Plenty of people seem to think Ardkilly Witness is the one to be on but he looks short in the betting on what he has achieved. Baile Anrai ran well at Doncaster and looks capable of reaching the frame while Whats Happening and Bally Legend cannot be ruled out. There may be a few more withdrawals before the weekend and the safest option at the moment could be to go each-way on good old Planet Of Sound to record another Kempton victory.

Planet Of Sound at 11-1 Paddy Power

Ascot Saturday Preview

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As a mixture of rain, sleet and snow batter against the window it is hard to imagine that racing is going ahead at Ascot and Haydock this weekend. Amazingly, both courses report confidence that the meetings will go ahead.

We have reviewed the Grand National Trial at Haydock in some depth and pinned our hopes to Hawkes Point and Merry King. It will be fascinating to see how Mr McCoy gets along with Merry King but I am not expecting miracles. Although the jockey has seemingly ridden millions of winners, I seem to have a negative impact on his chances more often than not!

Both Hawkes Point and Our Father have entries at Ascot and Haydock and I am assuming that they will be heading north if both meetings survive. At the moment they are prominent in the betting at both courses so the market at Ascot is likely to change radically.

Course specialist Houblon Des Obeaux looks to have a difficult task with 11st 10lb while Teaforthree is using this as a stepping-stone to the Grand National. Chance Du Roy ran really poorly at Haydock last time after winning at Aintree. Highland Lodge and Night Alliance both pulled up last time so this is going to be a difficult to predict. With bookmakers likely to take a hefty deduction for the non-runners, the race is probably best left alone.

The two and a half mile handicap hurdle at 3.15 looks extremely competitive. David Pipe’s Heath Hunter is likely to be popular but it is difficult to get too excited about an easy Sedgefield winner, particularly as he emerged from a total fog that day. Like Minded ran extremely well last time out but is unlikely to be improving at the age of ten.

Kaylif Aramis was heavily backed for the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton but dropped away in the closing stages behind Saphir Du Rheu. He had previously finished sixth in the Ladbroke here and perhaps needs this trip to bring out his best.

Nicky Henderson’s Lough Kent is the dark horse here having his first race for the stable. He was a decent sort on the flat in France and won a Conditions chase in October. Bourne has run well here before but his victories are few and far between. It’s a really difficult race to be confident about but Kaylif Aramis makes each-way appeal at around 12-1.

Kaylif Aramis (each-way) at 12-1 William Hill