Tag: Horse Racing

Le Rocher value at 12-1 for Triumph Hurdle

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weekend trials at Cheltenham and Doncaster did not exactly go to plan. I was looking for a big run from Rocky Creek in the Argento Chase but he went out very tamely when pressed by The Giant Bolster. Connections are apparently considering The Grand National instead of the Gold Cup after that display but I won’t be rushing to back him.

The biggest talking point of the weekend was the defeat of Big Buck’s in the Cleeve Hurdle. After a layoff of 420 days, it was surprising that Sam Twiston-Davies elected to have the horse so prominent from the start. Paul Nicholls has said that he told his jockey to be positive but most observers felt that he was in front far too early. Having said that, it was an encouraging run and he looks the one to beat in the World Hurdle.

The runner that impressed me most was the performance put up by Le Rocher in the Triumph Hurdle trial. There has hardly been a performance of note from the four-year-olds this season but Le Rocher looks the pick of the bunch on this evidence.

Vicenzo Mio was the first of several beaten favourites for the Nicholls team on the day but Le Rocher was backing up a Grade 1 win at Chepstow. Most impressively, he stretched a two and a half-length winning margin over Kentucky Hayden at the Welsh track to ten lengths here. Trainer Nick Williams has no doubt that the horse is capable of winning at the festival and I’m pretty confident that he will persuade the owners to go for the big one.

The going was very testing on Saturday so it would obviously be helpful if the going is soft in March but he also has form on a better surface in France. Ladbrokes have gone out on a limb by sticking to 12-1 and I feel that price cannot last long. He is around 8-1 generally and that is a far more realistic price.

Goodwood Mirage hardly lifted his feet over the last two hurdles when scraping home on his debut and he was little better here. I would imagine he would be heavily schooled and then given a confidence-booster before a trip to Aintree rather than Cheltenham. I cannot see him handling the hustle and bustle of a Triumph Hurdle.

Le Rocher (each-way) at 12-1 Ladbrokes

Boylesports Hurdle Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

As well as the top class racing at Cheltenham and Doncaster, there is some excellent sport over in Ireland at Leopardstown this weekend. Hurricane Fly is expected to be back in action on Sunday when he will be expected to consolidate his position at the head of the Champion Hurdle market.

Willie Mullins reported a slight scare in midweek with some minor bruising but all seems well for the defending champion. He will clash with Jezki and Our Conor once again and it will be interesting to see if the younger horse can improve on his last effort. He looked a smart winner of the Triumph Hurdle but little has come out of the race of any consequence.

Saturday’s Boylesports Hurdle looks almost impossible to solve but we shall have a go! We had an each-way bet on Flaxen Flare in the Ladbroke and he slogged on into third place. Gordon Elliott’s gelding won the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last season and is probably just too high in the handicap at the moment.

The favourite is Quick Jack who was heavily backed when beating Deep Trouble at Cheltenham in November. He has only gone up 6lbs but he looks a bit short in the betting for me at around 3-1 in a 24-runner handicap. A case can be made for Sea Light and Blood Cotil. Sea Light has won three on the bounce but has gone up 11lbs for his latest win.

Blood Cotil should have landed the odds at Cork last time but fell after previously finishing second to Diakali in France. Willie Mullins and Paul Townend teamed up to win the Thyestes Chase this week and they look set to feature here. Gilgamboa has only had three races and is up 8lbs for his latest win. Experience counts for a lot in a rough and tumble race like this and that puts me off Gilgamboa and the disappointing Snake Eyes.

Sullane Chief won with any amount in hand last time but the handicapper has come down hard with a big hike in the weights. Conor Walsh takes off 7lbs and he could still run well with only 10st 3lb on his back.

The form that I like best for this race is the Leopardstown Christmas Rated Hurdle won by Dysios from Leah Claire. The runner-up is a tough little mare who was placed twice in Listed company on the flat. She ran well at Leopardstown but was just done for toe by Dysios in the run from the last. She is 2lbs better off for two lengths and it is hard to split them. They are both on offer at good each-way prices so they will do for me.

Leah Claire at 20-1 Coral

Dysios at 25-1 Boylesports

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Rocky Creek’s task has been made easier on Saturday by the withdrawal of both Triolo D’Alene and Theatre Guide. I had my suspicions that Nicky Henderson would be reluctant to risk his Grand National hope on soft ground around here so our 5-2 bet is now in to 6-4. It’s still going to be a decent test for Rocky Creek but he should be up to the task.

The media love to chuck around phrases like “Super Saturday” and apparently that is what we are in for this weekend. It is probably more reasonable to describe it as Trial’s day with some serious Cheltenham hopes in action at both Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Paul Nicholls has runners all over the place, headed by Big Buck’s In the Cleeve Hurdle. The bookies have pushed the four-time World Hurdle winner out to even money to overcome his lengthy absence. The vibes have been good and hopefully he can extend his winning sequence to 19 but there is bound to be some anxiety in the Nicholls camp.

A better betting proposition is Double Ross in the handicap at 1.50. Nigel Twiston-Davies is not shy about his horses and I detect plenty of confidence in this one on Saturday. He laughed off a 7lbs increase last time to beat Cedre Bleu on a miserable wet day and is up another 8lbs here. Cedre Bleu has since finished second at Ascot after looking likely to win jumping the last. He seems a bit of a monkey to me and I don’t think he will turn the form around on the revised terms.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Nicholls chalk up five or six winners on Saturday. Vicenzo Mio won by 17 lengths at Kempton and could become a leading contender for the Triumph if he wins the opener. I’m not too sure what he beat that day but the Triumph market is strangely subdued for this late in January and needs a shot in the arm.

I followed Goodwood Mirage on the flat last season and he always looked like he would be better as a four-year-old. He was snapped up for a small fortune to go hurdling and won despite failing to jump the last two on his debut. It was quite an achievement to get up and win having stopped to a virtual standstill. If Jonjo has managed to teach him to hurdle fluently he will be a danger.

Nicholls also has a squeak with Dark Lover in the novices handicap chase. He looked set to win at Newbury recently but didn’t quite find the acceleration needed. Cheltenham brings out the best in him but I’m put off by his weight of 11st 10lb.

David Pipe has suffered a couple of setbacks with incredibly bad runs from Dynaste (King George) and The Liquidator (Tolworth). He will be hoping that Red Sherlock does not fluff his lines tomorrow when he goes for win number 6. I have a feeling that he may have to play second fiddle to the Irish raider Rathvinden who was not done with when falling at Warwick. The race was won by Deputy Dan and that’s pretty smart form.

1.50 Double Ross at 7-2 William Hill

2.25 Rocky Creek at 5-2 ante-post

3.00 Rathvinden at 9-4 Totesport, Betfred

Sky Bet Chase Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The combination of Paul Nicholls and Harry Derham teamed up to provide us with a nice winner in Saphir Du Rheu two weeks ago and could be worth following at Doncaster on Saturday. Derham is a very capable rider and claims a useful 5lbs off the Nicholls runner in the featured Sky Bet Chase.

Unioniste is a typical French import in that he jumped like an old hand from the moment he joined Nicholls. He landed a significant gamble for the stable when he won the December Gold Cup in desperate ground in 2012 with Derham riding a confident race. The going is currently described as soft but there is plenty of rain around and conditions are bound to be testing.

Unioniste made a satisfactory start to his season when a fair third at Wetherby, especially as many of the Nicholls horses were in need of their first run. He then won at Aintree where his jumping improved when given a clear sight of his fences. He was then pitched in at the deep end in the Lexus Chase and ran well before being outpaced as the runners headed for home.

That defeat suggests that a Gold Cup entry is rather ambitious but he is a smart chaser in this grade and this does not look a particularly strong field. Roberto Goldback has become very frustrating since winning well on his first start for Henderson and the Grand National winner Aurora’s Encore will surely do well to get close to Unioniste in receipt of just 2lbs after Derham’s claim.

The two horses that catch my eye as possible dangers are Donald McCain’s Kruzhlinin and Keith Reveley’s Night In Milan. Both won well last time and appear fairly treated by the handicapper. Kruzhlinin has won twice at Kelso and has gone up just 6lbs for his latest triumph. I just prefer him as an each-way alternative because he will probably handle the ground better than Night In Milan.

I was not convinced that Night In Milan’s race here was the greatest handicap of the season, although Mart Lane came out and won next time. The handicapper has given him a hefty 10lbs hike for that, a win achieved in first time blinkers. That means that Night In Milan meets him on the same terms as when thrashing him here previously.

Gullinbursti is tough and consistent but I can’t help thinking is too close to Unioniste in the handicap. He will probably run his usual game race but may struggle for a turn of foot in the closing stages. Time For Rupert was fifth in the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup but has only been on the track twice since.

Unioniste at 5-1 BetVictor

Kruzhlinin at 9-1 BetVictor

Thyestes Chase Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The main jumping action on Thursday is over in Ireland at Gowran Park with the valuable Thyestes Chase. This race has been won in the past by Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde so has a reputation as something of a Grand National trial. On His Own won here two years ago but failed to add to the roll of honour at Aintree.

Willie Mullins was hopeful of On His Own in the National last year with Ruby Walsh on board but he faded tamely. It was a disappointing effort and he has only shown glimmers of form since, most recently when running on at the end of the Becher Chase. I’m not too sure what to make of that run because the winner Chance Du Roy ran no race at all at Haydock last weekend.

The going is certain to be on the slow side so the answer to this tricky race surely lies lower down the handicap. Jim Dreaper and Andrew Lynch are a combination to be respected and I like the look of Los Amigos. Most of these have only patchy recent form by Los Amigos appears to be still improving and adapted successfully to win over hurdles last time out.

Dreaper has admitted a slight concern over his lack of experience for a tough race like this but is hopeful that he will see out the trip. Ruby Walsh is aboard the top weight Vesper Bell but it is hard to fancy him after two failed trips across the water. He fell at the first in the Becher and then unseated his rider in the Warwick Classic.

Balnaslow may turn out to be the best of the four Mullins runners but he is closely weighted with Hunting Party on Thurles form from October. He came out on top that day by a length and a quarter but Hunting Party has a 5lbs pull and seems to have improved since. A win over this course will hold Hunting Party in good stead but he also tipped up at the first in the Paddy Power Chase.

Paul Carberry is in the saddle on Thursday and I’d imagine it would be the usual hold up tactics from the maestro. If he can get the horse safely over the first few fences and popping away in midfield, he could feature here and is attractively priced at 16-1. Trainer Dessie Hughes won here with Siegemaster in 2011 often targets this race.

The Troytown Chase winner Cootamundra has been put up 10lbs for that victory and that may prove too much Playing is on a hat-trick and acts well on this ground. He went up 11lbs after bolting up at Limerick and now a further 14lbs for winning in similar fashion at Cork. You don’t see many 11 year old horses improving so rapidly but 14-1 looks too big with BetVictor.

Paul Sweeney has put blinkers on the formerly useful Panther Claw and booked Barry Geraghty. I always tend to look at previous runnings of these big handicaps and he was third last year so could run better than of late.

I’d say the same of runner-up Tarquinius but he has looked well below his best and I’d be surprised if Gordon Elliott can get him sharp enough to win this.

Los Amigos at 8-1 Paddy Power

Playing at 14-1 BetVictor

Hunting Party at 16-1 Bet365

Argento Chase Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It was heavy going at Ascot and Haydock last weekend, in more ways than one! Our selections got bogged down in the mud with the exception of Sire De Grugy who advertised his chance in the Queen Mother Champion Chase with a classy victory.

I hope that some of you managed to get the 25-1 ante-post price on him for the festival! He is now a miserly 11-4 and I wouldn’t be backing him at those odds. I still have reservations about his jumping at Cheltenham and Sprinter Sacre could yet return to the peak of his powers. I’d be optimistic of some place money even if the favourite does still make it to the race.

I’m after some more ante-post value this week with Rocky Creek and Triolo D’Alene in the Gold Cup. Both horses are due to run in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. Paddy Power have already gone non-runner/no bet on the four championship races at the festival and you have to applaud them for it. Naturally, some of their prices are a bit skinny by comparison to the other firms but 33-1 with a run Rocky Creek for the big race will do me.

He has a lot of improvement to find if he is to be competitive with the likes of Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti but Paul Nicholls is no mug and was happy to fork out the entry fee. He gave the horse plenty of work ahead of the Hennessy Gold Cup and gave the impression that he was expecting a victory. In the event he had to settle for the runner-up spot behind Triolo D’Alene but time may show that to be a fair effort.

Having tipped Triolo D’Alene at 25-1 for the Hennessy, I’m reluctant to pass him over here but I just wonder about him if the ground gets really soft. Henderson was quick to pull him out of the Ascot race won by Houblon Des Obeaux and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him diverted again here. BetVictor are also offering a refund on non-runners for Cheltenham and go 40-1 about Triolo D’Alene for Cheltenham.

I was hopeful that Theatre Guide would boost the Hennessy form when he ran at Cheltenham last time but he found Monbeg Dude in excellent form. I must admit that I had the Dude down as something of a mud lark but he looked a different horse that day and readily accounted for Theatre Guide.

Rocky Creek at 5-2 Paddy Power

Ante-post Cheltenham Gold Cup* Non-runner no bet

Rocky Creek at 33-1 (each-way) Paddy Power

Triolo D’Alene at 40-1 (each-way) BetVictor