Tag: Horse Racing

Lingfield Wednesday Preview

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With all of the attention focussed on the National Hunt racing, it’s difficult to devote any time to the all-weather flat racing in the UK. I must admit it has never really been a favourite of mine, although it does at least guarantee some entertainment should racing be hit with a cold snap.

Much of the racing is modest, although the bigger stables are much more involved than they used to be. The likes of Gosden and Cumani frequently run their maidens on the all-weather and even Sir Michael Stoute is not averse to the odd runner or two.

Wednesday’s card at Lingfield is notable for a race featuring several decent sprinters. Back in the spring I was firmly on the side of Hawkeyethenoo as Jim Goldie’s veteran tackled Group races. He was far from disgraced either, being unlucky when fourth in the Duke Of York Stakes.

Graham Lee has been a big success since switching from the jumps to flat racing but his quiet style can be frustrating in these sprint races. He wouldn’t be my first choice for riding something that needed a bit of hustle and bustle in a race.

Hawkeyethenoo ran at Lingfield last month, the first time he has raced on the all-weather since 2009. He was sent off 4-1 favourite in a Listed race over six furlongs. Lee had him in rear from the start and never really got that busy on him, making late headway into fourth behind Valbchek. I don’t think the word “panic” is in Graham’s vocabulary!

Tomorrow he returns to handicap company and is drawn one in a decent field. His biggest threat could be Lancelot Du Lac who finished just ahead of him last time and has since won a handicap. My own view is that Hawkeyethenoo should finish wherever Lancelot Du Lac does, having more or less followed his run through.

Another familiar name is that of Hoof It, like Hawkeyethenoo a former Stewards Cup winner, trained by Mick Easterby. He’s shown glimpses of form this season after a layoff through injury and this is his first outing on this surface. The multiple winner Forest Lodge also has to be considered along with the bottom-weight Noble Deed.

I’ll take some of the 9-1 each-way about Hawkeyethenoo but will be hoping to see him ridden more prominently this time. If Lee drops him in from the one stall he could be left with too much to do yet again.

Hawkeyethenoo 2.30 Lingfield (each-way) 9-1 Coral

December Gold Cup Preview

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Sire De Grugy and Unioniste kept out heads above water last weekend with impressive victories. The former is unfortunate to be racing in the same era as Sprinter Sacre but it was nice to get his chance of Grade 1 glory on Saturday. I was also impressed with Unioniste who confirmed himself as a stayer of some potential at Aintree.

Paul Nicholls had five big winners across the card and it will be interesting to see how he shuffles his chasing pack. I’d love to have seen Hennessy Gold Cup runner-up Rocky Creek go for the Welsh National but the trainer has indicated that the Lexus Chase is his Christmas target.

This weekend it is the The December Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Its official sponsored title is simply bizarre so I’m not even going to mention it! Anyway, the race looks set to revolve around the form of the Paddy Power Gold Cup over course and distance last month.

Johns Spirit came out on top on that occasion for Jonjo O’Neill, beating Colour Squadron by three-quarters of a length with Attadale fourth and Easter Meteor falling two out. The general consensus was that Colour Squadron would have won but for being hampered when Easter Meteor crashed out at the second last.   It is true that he had to do a pretty nimble side-step and made up a lot of ground from the last, but I’m not convinced that it is as simple as that.

Johns Spirit seems to travel easily in his races and then pull himself up in front. He did the same at the last meeting and he was in front a long way out in the Paddy Power.   I was impressed with Easter Meteor and he again ran well when chasing home Cantlow at Newbury last time. It’s impossible to say where he may have finished had he stood up at Cheltenham but the handicapper hasn’t exactly ignored him, putting him up 8lbs for two defeats.

The gamble of the race is Grandioso who caught the eye when third in Cantlow’s race. Nicholls has made no secret of the fact that a lot of his runners have needed their first outing and expects this one to improve considerably. That would certainly give him a chance but he doesn’t offer great value at 7-1 having been more than twice that at the start of the week.

I find it hard to look beyond the Paddy Power form and recommend splitting stakes between Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron.

Colour Squadron 6-1 Bet365

Johns Spirit 13-2 888Sport

Racing Preview Saturday 7th December

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It’s a busy weekend for both flat and National Hunt fans with Aintree and Sandown followed by the big meeting in Hong Kong. Our midweek bets on the big races have all stood their ground so let’s hope we can follow up our 20-1 Hennessy Gold Cup success!

There are plenty of interesting supporting races, not least the Listed Chase at Aintree at 2.40. According to the Racing Post, Channel 4 are not televising this race. This is slightly baffling, given the good quality of the field and the fact that the Tingle Creek does not start until 20 minutes later!

I am presuming that the powers-that-be had prepared a stack of musical interludes with slow-mo pictures of Sprinter Sacre. One day they will realise that racing fans want more live action and less waffle!

Returning to the race in question, I am going to side with the five-year-old Unioniste. Paul Nicholls has admitted that a lot of his runners are in need of a run this season and the grey was a typical example at Wetherby. He just didn’t quite get home behind Harry Topper and can reverse the form with the runner-up Wayward Prince.

Katenko fell too early in the Hennessy to say whether he would have been involved at the business end whilst The Giant Bolster seems to reserve his best for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Unioniste is tough and consistent and looks great value at 9-2.

I am a big fan of Nicky Henderson’s dual-purpose performer Lieutenant Miller and I’ll be supporting him in the 1.00 at Aintree tomorrow. He ran his heart out at Royal Ascot, Goodwood and in the Cesarewitch on the flat this year and deserves to pick up a decent hurdling prize. He is still on a very attractive handicap mark over hurdles and he should be able to exploit it.

There seems to be a National named after every part of Britain these days and tomorrow it is the London version. I’m going for Bradley in this one after his fine third at Cheltenham last time out. I thought Godsmejudge ran well too but I can’t support him with 11st 12lb on his back.

Bradley caught my eye last year when just run out of it by the mud-loving Monbeg Dude at Cheltenham. He is yet to land the big prize that he deserves but tomorrow could be his day.

Lieutenant Miller 4-1 Bet365

Unioniste 9-2 William Hill

Bradley 8-1 Bet365

Tingle Creek Chase Preview

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The Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase was meant to be the starting point for Sprinter Sacre this season but he has been ruled out after tests suggested that he was less than 100%. Obviously nobody wants to see Nicky Henderson take any chances with the highest rated chaser in training but it is disappointing for the Sandown crowd.

Henderson has diverted Captain Conan to take his place and he is no mean deputy. He was only beaten once last season as a novice and that was at the Cheltenham Festival in March. I had not rated him particularly prior to that run but I thought he stuck on gamely at Prestbury Park and he got his just reward by winning at Aintree subsequently.

I seem to remember jockey Barry Geraghty emphatically saying that Captain Conan was a two and a half mile horse so this is going to be interesting. If he proves good enough to win here, it will be difficult to find any opposition to Sprinter Sacre come March.

My idea of the winner on Saturday is Sire De Grugy. I first put him in my notebook after he ran a cracker in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury won by Zarkandar. He lugged some big weights over hurdles and was always going to make a smart chaser. He was not quite right early last season but showed his true ability when beating former two-mile champion Finian’s Rainbow at Sandown in the Celebration Chase.

I fully expected him to follow up at Cheltenham last time but he was caught by Kid Cassidy up the final hill. His jumping can be a little worrying at times and he took off a little early on a couple of occasions there. I’m convinced that he is a horse that is always going to be better on the so-called park courses and he looks a cracking bet at 9-4 with Bet365.

I have plenty of respect for Somersby who seems to have been around forever but is actually only nine years old. He is now trained by Mick Channon and won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter when holding off Module in a driving finish.

Cue Card finished third that day but it would be foolish to take that form literally. Clearly Cue Card was a lot fitter when he contested the Betfair Chase and galloped his way into the Gold Cup picture.

Sire De Grugy 9-4 Bet365

Becher Chase Preview

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Twenty-four horses are set to face the starter in Saturday’s Becher Chase at Aintree. I cannot remember the Betfair Chase attracting such a large field in previous years and it reads like a min-Grand National!

Two years ago, On His Own appeared to be travelling as well as anything in the big race when falling at Becher’s Brook on the second circuit. The last time I was as gutted in the National was when West Tip came down in almost identical fashion.

Naturally plans were set in motion for a repeat attempt but, unlike West Tip, it did not end well. Ruby Walsh had him in a good position but he was clearly in retreat when he fell awkwardly at Valentine’s on the second circuit. Some horses are just not meant to win at Aintree and it appears that On His Own falls into that category.

He lines up on Saturday against a field of veterans and misfits and you’d have to fancy him on his best form. Of course there is a risk that he will suffer the same fate as on his two previous visits so I recommend an insurance policy in the form of stable companion Vesper Bell.

I wouldn’t normally tip a horse that hasn’t run for seven months, especially in such a gruelling race, but Willie Mullins is unlikely to be sending him over for the good of his health. He also holds an entry in the Welsh National and his form suggests that the deeper the ground the better.

If the rest of Britain is anything like it is here in Scotland today (Thursday – the day of the Winter Storm) then I’d expect the going to be soft at the weekend. On his most recent start, Vesper Bell was just grabbed on the line by Welsh National favourite Goonyella at Punchestown.

Of the others, I am expecting Across The Bay to jump around safely after leading the National field for such a long way. He made a slight mistake at the third and was hampered when a loose horse ran across him before half-way so it was no surprise that he weakened in the closing stages. With a shorter trip and his free-wheeling style, it would be no surprise to see him up there from the start.

The biggest surprise for me is to see David Pipe’s Junior at the top of the weights. He was the subject of a massive ante-post plunge in this race a couple of seasons ago but appeared to resent the place and I assumed that we wouldn’t see him back here again. Far be it from me to question Mr Pipe so I can only assume that they have had second thoughts for his recalcitrant performance that day.

On His Own 10-1 Betfair

Vesper Bell (each-way) 16-1 Stan James, BetVictor

 

Hong Kong Cup Preview

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Bookmakers Sportingbet are featuring the four main races from Sha Tin this weekend and they are offering some great value bets on the European runners.

I have already previewed the prospects of The Fugue (Vase) and Moonlight Cloud (Mile) and am confident that they will give us a great run for our money. I am concerned about the prospect of fast ground for Moonlight Cloud but her class may see her through.

The Hong Kong Cup sets a similar poser with Cirrus Des Aigles clearly the best horse in the race but not certain to reproduce his best form on a fast surface. Sportingbet offer him at 5-1 which is very tempting! I would love to see him win this at the age of seven but I am haunted by his performance at Ascot in the King George where he patently hated the fast ground.

Normally I wouldn’t put Grandeur in the same league as Cirrus Des Aigles but the going can be a great leveller and the grey absolutely bounces off fast ground. Five of his seven victories have been on a fast surface and he comes here on the back of a light campaign.

He looked to have a leading chance in the Arlington Million this year before drawn in the car park. He made late headway into seventh place and can be rated a lot better than that. He went on to win nicely at Goodwood and Jeremy Noseda has had this race in mind for him all season. He is priced as high as 40-1 with Sportingbet and must have an each-way chance.

According to the bookies, the Sprint is going to be won by Lord Kanaloa. Admittedly he has an impressive wins to runs ratio and will be tough to beat, especially as the Europeans have never won the sprint here. However, I think that the two Irish horses are overpriced on their best form.

Sole Power won at Royal Ascot and Slade Power won on Champions’ day. Both of them like to hear their hooves rattle but the fact remains that Sole Power has yet to win beyond five furlongs. For that reason, I prefer the claims of Slade Power at a generous 14-1 with BetVictor.

Sportingbet also seem to be underestimating the claims of Galileo Rock in the Vase. They have priced him at 9-1 whilst he is a top priced 6-1 in the UK. The colt was third in the Epsom Derby, second in the Irish Derby and third in the St Leger. He is lightly raced and loves fast ground so I could see him sneaking into the frame.

Hong Kong Vase – Galileo Rock (each-way) 9-1 Sportingbet

Hong Kong Sprint – Slade Power (each-way) 14-1 BetVictor

Hong Kong Cup – Grandeur (each-way) 40-1 Sportingbet