Tag: Horse Racing

Welsh National Ante-Post Preview

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The Hennessy Gold Cup provided us with a 25-1 winner in Triolo D’Alene on Saturday and I believe that it may also have given us a clue to the outcome of the Welsh National.

Trying to second guess the running plans of the leading National Hunt stables is a gamble in itself but we got it right with Nicky Henderson’s runner. Apparently jockey Barry Geraghty had been pleading with the Lambourn trainer to keep Triolo D’Alene for the Grand National but he’s likely to be faced with a steep rise in the weights now. Geraghty tried to convince a group of journalists that a 3-4lb rise would be sufficient for Saturday’s victory but the general consensus is that he will go up by 10lbs.

There is one potential loophole for Henderson and that is the possibility of running Long Run. As a former Gold Cup winner he would automatically get top weight and Triolo D’Alene might get in off around 11 stone. As a previous winner of the Becher Chase, he has got a proper Aintree pedigree so I’m going to invest a little of Saturday’s winnings at 20-1 for Aintree.

Moving on to the prospect of a slog around Chepstow over Christmas and my eye-catcher from Newbury was Merry King. Jonjo O’Neill is a great supporter of the Welsh National and won it with Mini Sensation and Synchronised. In Merry King I believe that he as another ideal candidate.

I first noted him last season when he produced a gutsy display to finish second in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock. He refused to give in and just kept battling away right to the line, losing out on the nod to Cannington Brook. On his seasonal debut he ran on from midfield to finish second to Houblon Des Obeaux with Triolo D’Alene behind in third.

I always wondered if he would quite have the pace for the Hennessy and he was outpaced when they turned for home, plugging on at the one pace to finish fifth. The only horse that put up a more promising run with regards to the Welsh National was Rocky Creek but connections have stated their intention to run him in the Lexus Chase instead.

Another stable with multiple options is the in-form yard of Lucinda Russell. She has Silver By Nature and Nuts N Bolts entered and both ran well at Haydock recently. It appears that she is leaning towards running the former in Ireland but Nuts N Bolts would also be a leading contender here. Sydney Paget is the early favourite after winning easily at Haydock but he has gone up in the weights and is another with alternative engagements.

Grand National – Triolo D’Alene 20-1 Bet365, Coral

Welsh National – Merry King 14-1 Bet365, Coral

Newcastle Saturday Preview

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My Tent Or Yours is the headline horse at Newcastle on Saturday as he starts his Champion Hurdle campaign for Nicky Henderson. He runs in the colours of leading National Hunt owner JP McManus and will be partnered by champion jockey Tony McCoy.

Melodic Rendezvous looks his only serious rival but, as tough as he is, he does not look to have the speed to match the Henderson gelding. It would not surprise me to see the favourite put up an impressive display and be clear favourite for Cheltenham by the end of the day.

The Lambourn trainer came under intense pressure to supplement him for the Champion Hurdle in March after he had bolted up in the competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He stuck to his original plan of going for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but was surprisingly held by Champagne Fever. I’m not quite sure whether the hill found him out that day but he oozed class when winning at Aintree next time and he is expected to win tomorrow.

It looks like being a good card for favourite backers with several strong favourites. Lucinda Russell has her string in fine form and can start the ball rolling at 12.05 with Green Flag. This one is on a hat-trick after an effortless victory at Ayr and he can follow up off a 6lb higher mark.

The second “banker” of the day is Oscar Rock in the 1.05. This one joined Malcolm Jefferson after winning two bumper races for Martin Fry last season and he looked like Cheltenham material on his hurdling bow. After pulling hard early on, he eased to the front before quickening clear to win by 19 lengths at Wetherby. There will be some long faces in the Jefferson camp if he is beaten tomorrow.

Tony McCoy should double up when he partners Full Shift for Henderson in the closing event. This one cost JP £170,000 after recording the best time of the day in his point-to-point. He is held in some regard and he is expected to bring the famous green and gold colours home in front on Saturday.

Although it will be hard to get even money about any of these, it may be worth throwing in an accumulator.

Green Flag 4-5 Bet365, Ladbrokes

Oscar Rock 5-6 Ladbrokes

My Tent Or Yours 4-5 Totesport, Betfred

+ accumulator above four

Full Shift

Newbury Friday Preview

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The Hennessy Gold Cup meeting started with a low key meeting on Thursday but Friday’s card is an improvement. Wonderful Charm goes for a quick hat-trick when he lines up for the Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at 2.05.

The Paul Nicholls-trained French import won impressively at Fakenham first time out and then followed up in a much better race at Wincanton. He pulled back three lengths from the last to deny Fox Appeal with Third Intention ten lengths away in third. He ran too freely in the early stages and is still learning his trade but he has plenty of potential.

His main rival tomorrow is David Pipe’s Tanerko Emery who was second to Raya Star over fences before running a respectable seventh behind Dell’ Arca at Cheltenham. That form received an early boost when Ifandbutwhynot (tenth) came out and won the Gerry Feilden Hurdle today.

The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier at 1.30 has attracted a huge field. The one that catches my eye is the consistent Twelve Roses. It’s a sobering thought that I can remember this one’s grand-dam winning at Cheltenham! That was Rose Ravine who beat stable companion Crimson Embers in controversial circumstances for Fulke Walwyn.

Twelve Roses seems to have inherited her battling qualities if her recent effort is anything to go by. Kim Bailey’s mare forced More Of That to pull out all the stops at Wetherby before going down by just a length. The winner came out and won a much better race at Haydock last weekend and looks like being yet another high-class performer in the JP McManus colours.

Of course there are plenty of dangers including the hat-trick seeking Minella For Steak and David Pipe’s Western Warhorse. Chiberta King is another interesting runner having won at Royal Ascot in the summer. If he can transfer that kind of form to hurdles he is well weighted here.

Looking further ahead, my two selections for the Hennessy have stood their ground with Barry Geraghty electing to ride Triolo D’Alene. This has caused Hadrian’s Approach to drift and his jumping admittedly causes concern in such a big field. There is still no clear favourite and it looks like the most open renewal of the race in recent years.

Wonderful Charm Evens 888Sport

Twelve Roses 6-1 Bet365

Long Distance Hurdle Preview

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The Hennessy Gold Cup is the feature race at Newbury on Saturday but the supporting card includes the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle featuring the reappearance of At Fisher’s Cross. The gelding started last season with a handicap mark of 122 and was rated 30lbs higher after a run of six consecutive victories.

It was a superb piece of training by Rebecca Curtis, taking in Cheltenham and Liverpool along the way. The six-year-old is regarded as the heir apparent to Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle in March and this race will probably determine whether or not that remains his prime objective. With Tony McCoy riding at Newcastle, Barry Geraghty has been booked for the ride on an important weekend for owner JP McManus.

The famous green and yellow colours will also be in evidence with Champion Hurdle hopes Jezki and My Tent Or Yours. At Fisher’s Cross is ideally suited by a bit of give in the ground and the forecast is for soft going on Saturday. The bookmakers aren’t taking any chances by making him favourite at around even money but he looks the obvious form choice.

Reve de Sivola was second in this last year and went on to win at Cheltenham and Ascot before a creditable effort in the World Hurdle. He showed his usual battling qualities when springing a 36-1 surprise in a Grade 1 event in France at the start of this month. He is actually rated 5lbs higher than the favourite and will be a tough nut to crack with fitness on his side.

Celestial Halo put up a brave display to finish second at the festival and may even have won but for a last flight blunder. He has also picked up some prize money in France but this will be his first run since June.

I must confess to having a soft spot for Medinas having been on at huge odds when he won the Coral Hurdle. He is not very big but has the heart of a lion and showed that he is still improving when second to Tidal Bay at Wetherby. Another horse worthy of respect is Salubrious who was just collared at the Cheltenham Open meeting. That was his first run at an extreme distance and he clearly stays well.

At Fisher’s Cross 10-11 Bet365

Hong Kong Vase Preview

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For those of us who are already experiencing withdrawal symptoms from the end of the flat turf season, the December 8th meeting at Hong Kong provides a welcome boost. The Hong Kong Vase sees The Fugue bidding to gain compensation for her last gasp defeat in the Breeders’ Cup.

Jockey William Buick was reportedly in tears after being pipped on the line by Ryan Moore on Magician. I don’t think that Buick did anything wrong in the race, although he may have been in front a bit longer than ideal. It was just a brilliant performance from Magician who had threatened to be in this class when he ran away with the Irish Guineas.

The track, distance and going should all suit The Fugue and she stands out as the class performer. With all due respect to the majority of the other European raiders, they could all still run in handicaps whilst The Fugue is in a different league. As much as I admire the Melbourne Cup exploits of Dandino, Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Mount Athos and Simenon, they should not be able to live with Gosden’s filly.

The possible exception is Galileo Rock who was placed in the English and Irish Derby and the St Leger at Doncaster. The Epsom Derby form produced one of the worst records in recent memory but it’s hard to fault this tough colt who also likes a fast surface. What he appears to lack is a finishing kick but I could see him reach the frame if he is positively ridden.

The Hong Kong Mile also looks destined to fall into European hands with the brilliant Moonlight Cloud standing head and shoulders above her rivals. Sky Lantern and Gordon Lord Byron have both put up superb performances this season but Moonlight Cloud has been simply phenomenal. She first caught my eye when flashing home behind Black Caviar at Ascot and she has now established herself as a top class mare in her own right.

Richard Hannon Senior has announced that he is handing over to Junior on January 1st and would dearly love to go out with a winner. Sky Lantern has had a long season but won well at Newmarket last time out and you have to respect her chance. I’m not often tempted to do a double but 7-4 seems generous about both horses as I feel they should both be around even money.

Hong Kong Vase – The Fugue 7-4 Bet365

Hong Kong Mile – Moonlight Cloud 7-4 Bet365

Double – The Fugue @7-4, Moonlight Cloud@ 7-4 Bet365

Hennessy Gold Cup 2013 Preview

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Last weekend’s Betfair Chase did not quite go to plan with Cue Card holding off Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti. All credit to anyone who kept faith in Cue Card but I just could not see him keeping up the gallop over the three mile and one furlong trip. His only previous effort had ended with a leg-weary fifth in the King George but the going was very testing that day.

It could be argued that he had improved for his seasonal debut when a disappointing third behind Somersby at Exeter. I noted Kumbeshwar running on to finish under a length down on Cue Card that day but he ran like a hairy goat in the Paddy Power Gold Cup! I can only assume that Cue Card improved a stone between Exeter and Haydock.

As far as the Cheltenham Gold Cup goes, I’d still back the second and third to beat Cue Card. Both will be entitled to improve a few pounds and won’t be unduly concerned if the going turns soft. In the more immediate future, the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday has attracted 23 runners at the five-day stage.

The weights are set to rise by about a stone following the withdrawal of Tidal Bay. The Hennessy has become something of a Gold Cup trial in recent seasons but it is hard to imagine there being too many clues this year. The top weight Cape Tribulation is rated 22lbs inferior to Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth so it is going to take a spectacular performance to earn a quote for the festival’s biggest prize.

There are some promising second season chasers here, notably Invictus who is bidding to overcome an absence of almost 20 months. I’m surprised to see him at the head of the market, even if he did count Bobs Worth among his victims in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot. It will be hats off to Alan King if he can get him fit enough to win this first time out.

Rocky Creek has also been well supported but I’ve been slightly disappointed with some of the Nicholls horses this season. He has acknowledged that they are needing a run to put them straight and Rocky Creek has always been workmanlike rather than spectacular. I much prefer the claims of Hadrian’s Approach who almost upset Unioniste here last season.

He recovered from a bad mistake to finish with a flourish that day, suggesting that a big prize would come his way before too long. He has continued to throw in the odd costly mistake and did so again at Kempton on his return. The bare form of that run is nothing to get excited about but it should have put him spot on. I remember a horse called Arctic Call winning this and he was prone to the odd blunder. More often than not, you can get away with them at Newbury and he looks a decent bet at 11-1.

After David Pipe’s recent successes, I’m respectful of the grey Our Father who seems to run his best races when fresh. It may be a shrewd move by Pipe to go straight for a big prize with this one. Jonjo O’Neill is never one to disclose his plans but it seems that Merry King has been aimed at this race. He ran well at Ascot when second to Houblon Des Obeaux and has a big pull in the weights. So too does the third horse Triolo D’Alene, the second string of Nicky Henderson. He looks far too big at 25-1 2ith Betfair.

Hadrian’s Approach 11-1 888Sport

Triolo D’Alene 25-1 Betfair