Tag: Horse Racing

Japan Cup Preview

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European runners have failed to win the Japan Cup since 2005 and they appear to face a difficult task again this year. Melbourne Cup fourth Simenon and Canadian International winner Joshua Tree are joined by Dunaden but all three have been handed a double-figure draw.

Statistics suggest that this may not be too much of a disadvantage but it hard to be excited about the task facing Johnny Murtagh from stall 17 on Joshua Tree. Ed Dunlop’s horse has been around the block a few times and was chalking up a record third success in the International last month. He will presumably be chased up to the leaders early on as staying is his game.

Dunaden, winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2011 and the Caulfield Cup in 2012, has been unable to recapture his best form this season. He ran respectably without ever threatening to get involved at Flemington, eventually finishing eighth. He may have lost a little of his speed and it will be interesting to see what tactics are adopted by Jamie Spencer on him from stall 10.

Simenon ran a terrific race to finish fourth in the Melbourne Cup, looking a possible winner when looming up turning for home. He galloped on well enough under Richard Hughes but couldn’t go with Fiorente in the closing stages. As a horse that has won over two miles and six furlongs, you’d have to think that this mile and a half at the top level is going to be too short. However, I cannot resist the 20-1 put up by Corals as an each-way bet, even from stall 14.

The bookmakers have this race as a match between the grey Gold Ship and last year’s winner Gentildonna. Gold Ship won the Japanese 2000 Guineas and St Leger last season and won the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen in June. He is not a straight forward individual and is known to have his off days, notably when only fifth in the Tenno Sho Spring. Jockey Hiroyuki Uchida was quoted as saying “Sometimes he doesn’t feel like racing”. Hardly encouraging for anyone thinking of taking the 2-1!

When he does feel like racing he is very good indeed, as demonstrated by an easy victory over Gentildonna, a run which poses questions about last year’s winner. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride the four-year-old mare who is yet to win since this race a year ago. Japanese Derby winner Eishin Flash is another with the form to win this but was also well beaten last time.

Simenon (each-way) 20-1 Coral

Haydock Fixed Brush Hurdle Preview

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As well as a recognised Gold Cup Trial in the Betfair Chase, Haydock’s Saturday card also features the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle. This race has been won by some very useful sorts in its 8-year history, notably Halcon Genelardais, Grands Crus and Dynaste.

The last two of those were trained by the in-form David Pipe who saddled a four-timer at Cheltenham on Sunday paying over 5,000-1. His representative this year is a full-brother to Grands Crus in the useful Gevrey Chambertin.

The grey was heavily backed to win the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival in March but was never travelling and was eventually pulled up. He reappeared at Aintree but again weakened quickly in the home straight in the race won by At Fishers Cross. It may well be that he can bounce back to form here but it doesn’t look a risk worth taking at 7-1.

Paul Nicholls had to endure a frustrating weekend at Cheltenham last week with only one winner to show for his troubles. He looked sure to collect with Sametegal in the Greatwood Hurdle and again when Salubrious and Southfield Theatre battled out the finish of the staying handicap hurdle. Both were passed late on but the latter lost nothing in defeat and could turn out again here off the same mark. He travelled well throughout the race and makes plenty of appeal at the current prices.

Another I like here is Lucinda Russell’s Lie Forrit who returned to something like his best at Wetherby recently. He was a decent staying hurdler back in 2009 and won off a mark a few pounds higher than he is set to race off on Saturday. He made the running at Wetherby and, not surprisingly for a horse that had been over fences, he ballooned a couple of the early flights. He warmed to his task as the race went on and should run well again this weekend.

Alan King likes to get one ready for this and it would be no surprise to see Two Rockers run well whilst Gullinbursti is tough and comes from another in-form yard, that of Emma Lavelle. Trustan Times ran well last time but has a lot of weight to carry and Ely Brown is useful but would probably like it softer.

Southfield Theatre (each-way) 11-1 888Sport

Lie Forrit (each-way) 14-1 William Hill, Stan James

Racing Preview Wednesday 20th November

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There is a fascinating clash between two very promising novice hurdlers on an otherwise moderate card at Warwick on Wednesday. Garde La Victoire and Gone Too Far are both on a hat-trick and have been impressive in their most recent outings.

Garde La Victoire was in front from the fifth flight at Aintree and held off subsequent Plumpton scorer Regal Encore by two and a quarter lengths. The runner-up was given a lot to do that day but Garde La Victoire kept pulling out extra on the run-in and is highly regarded by the Hobbs stable. He can keep the JP McManus colours at bay again here.

The all-weather flat racing continues in the background and I’m putting up Elysian Prince as tomorrow’s nap selection. Paul Cole’s juvenile was having only his second start when bolting up over course and distance in September.

That marked a considerable improvement on his debut when only ninth of twelve at Goodwood and he looks capable of defying top weight in the six-runner nursery at 1.00. I looked at Blessington in the 2.30 but his last run has left just too many question marks for my liking. Having finished second at Ascot on his belated seasonal debut, he flopped badly in heavy ground at Newbury in October. In all likelihood it was simply a case of his not being able to handle the surface but it is difficult to support a horse beaten 78 lengths on his most recent outing!

Graphic has done us proud with two victories and a place in the Cambridgeshire and I see no reason to desert this improving sort at Kempton tomorrow. He’s a course and distance winner and looked better than ever when sluicing through the mud to beat Breton Rock at Nottingham last time out.

His last victory came off a rating of 102 but the handicapper has now raised him to 110. That just about makes him the best horse in the field for this listed race ahead of Tullius (109), Sirius Prospect (105) and Bertiewhittle (102). Jamie Spencer takes the ride on Graphic tomorrow and he can be yet another for the prolific William Haggas.

Elysian Prince 1.00 Lingfield 6-4 Bet365

Garde La Victoire 2.50 Warwick

Graphic 6.30 Kempton 5-2 Bet365

Betfair Chase Preview

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Cheltenham’s Open meeting ended in frustration with Sametegal just touched off in the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday. That was a terrific run under a big weight and he will surely pick up a decent prize before too long.

If that meeting has blown away the cobwebs for National Hunt fans, they can now look forward to the return of the Gold Cup winner in Haydock’s Betfair Chase on Saturday. This race has been dominated by Paul Nicholls, largely with the help of a certain Kauto Star but also with Silviniaco Conti winning last year.

Not everyone was convinced by Silviniaco Conti, even though he hardly put a foot wrong on his way through to the festival. His unfortunate tumble at the third last left a load of unanswered questions and we could get some answers this weekend. It certainly appeared as though he was travelling as well as anything at the time but it was too far out to make a confident judgement. Nicholls admitted to being gutted whilst Ruby Walsh was his usual unflappable self and refused to be drawn on whether or not he’d have won.

With Walsh now enjoying a rich harvest for Willie Mullins in Ireland and Daryl Jacob riding at Ascot, it falls to Noel Fehily to partner the gelding on Saturday. The trainer has stressed that it is only logical that Jacob rides Zarkandar and Al Ferof and points out that Fehily has ridden the horse to victory earlier in his career.

Bobs Worth only appeared twice last season, winning the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. For those of us who are old enough to remember, it revives memories of Henderson’s training of See You Then prior to his Champion Hurdle victories. We won’t be seeing much more of Bobs Worth this season but it seems safe to assume he will be fit enough.

Looking beyond the big two, you have to respect Dynaste after David Pipe’s Sunday four-timer. His horses seemed to keep finding extra, reminiscent of Pipe senior in his glory days. This is a cracking race as I see Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste as the two horses most likely to give Bobs Worth a run for his money at Cheltenham in March.

Tidal Bay is an intriguing runner after his fine win over hurdles at Wetherby but will need everything to go right to win this. Long Run is best watched after his poor run first time out whilst I am still not convinced that Cue Card will stay this trip. I think 11-4 is a fair price for Silviniaco Conti and 7-1 is too big for Dynaste with Pipe in flying form so I’ll take those two against the field.

Silviniaco Conti 11-4 BetVictor

Dynaste 7-1 Coral

Cheltenham Saturday Preview

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Balthazar King (2-1) kept our noses in front on Friday with a game display in the cross country race at Cheltenham. I was a bit concerned after an early mistake but he’s as tough as old boots and just refused to be beaten.

Our ambitious ante-post wagers on the Paddy Power Gold Cup still stand with Kumbeshwar (40-1) and Astracad (33-1) hoping to sneak some place money in a wide open race. The more I look at this race, the more confused I become! Confidence seems to have evaporated in Johns Spirit who is back out to 8-1 and I’m just wondering if he’s up to this class.

With so many good horses available at big odds, I’m going to add Battle Group to my team of long shots at a very generous 25-1 with Stan James. He has a reputation as a bit of a rogue but you cannot argue with back-to-back wins at Aintree and a win in a valuable race at Haydock. He was heavily backed in all three races and I can see him running a lot better than his odds suggest tomorrow.

Scottish National winner Godsmejudge makes his return to action on the same card and looks fair value at 15-2. Wayne Hutchinson rides him superbly and trainer Alan King reports the horse to be in fine form at home.

African Gold did well to win over hurdles, let alone chase home At Fishers Cross at the festival meeting. He’s a big strapping sort with a future over fences and he makes his chasing bow tomorrow in the 1.15. He has a certain AP McCoy to beat on Shutthefrontdoor but I can see African Gold making up into an RSA Chase candidate this season.

Timesremembered looked an above average hurdler when winning at Chepstow last time out and he can extend his winning sequence to three in the 3.35 race. This is a much tougher race but I think that he will start shorter than 11-4.

African Gold 2-1 BetVictor, Sportingbet

Godsmejudge 15-2 Stan James

Battle Group (each-way) 25-1 Stan James

Timesremembered 11-4  Stan James

Cheltenham Friday Preview

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Friday is the first of three cracking days of national hunt racing at Cheltenham. All eyes will be on Oscar Whisky as he embarks on his new chasing career and he should not be too severely tested with just three rivals. If he can convert his hurdles form to the bigger obstacles he will be an exciting prospect this season.

Of course, he isn’t really a betting proposition on Friday but there are plenty of competitive races to look at. Standing Ovation is likely to be all the rage in the opener after running out a clear cut winner of the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton. That was achieved off a mark of 120 and he has been raised to 127 tomorrow. David Pipe is a chip off the old block when it comes to taking horses through the handicap and it would be no surprise to see this one make it five on the bounce.

Conor O’Farrell has ridden him to all of his recent victories but amateur Mr S Clements takes over on Friday. He runs in the colours of the late David Johnson and it would be a poignant winner on the day of the Memorial race named in his honour. David Pipe has a fancied runner in that event with Top Gamble who is on a hat-trick after wins at Ffos Las. He must have a good chance but there are several promising types in opposition including Upswing, Whisper and Atlantic Roller.

I’ve never really been a fan of the cross country races but Balthazar King doesn’t seem to mind them and he looks a good bet at around 2-1 in the 3.15. He was only second here last year behind Uncle Junior but that one is getting a bit long in the tooth whilst Balthazar King continues to progress. It was a decent handicap that he won here in October and this looks like a drop in class.

Standing Ovation 13-8 Stan James

Balthazar King 2-1 Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power