Tag: Horse Racing

Kempton Thursday Preview

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The flat turf season may be over until March but there are still some interesting betting opportunities on the all-weather. This surface is no longer reserved exclusively for the low grade horses and the top trainers are happy to run their late developing horses on it through the winter.

A case in point could be Jeremy Noseda’s three-year-old filly Havelovewilltravel who runs under a 6lbs penalty in the 5.50 on Thursday. The daughter of Holy Roman Emperor did not appear until the end of September when just getting the better of Checkpoint over a mile under Ryan Moore at this venue. She must have been showing something at home because she was sent off the 5-2 favourite and was confidently ridden, swooping late from off the pace to win by a head.

The runner-up won his next race by seven lengths, admittedly only a claimer, whilst the third also won next time out and the fourth was just beaten here last month. The handicapper took a chance by putting Havelovewilltravel on a mark of 65 for her next race, again over a mile at Kempton. She was well supported into 2-1 favourite but things did not go to plan under William Buick. She was slowly away and slightly hampered early on and could not get to Diplomatic despite coming home strongly.

Diplomatic came out and won again here and was unlucky not to complete a hat-trick when second to Sugarformyhoney on Monday. Havelovewilltravel came back here to win off the same mark of 65 last week and was most impressive. Once again she was dropped to the rear by Buick but she picked the field up easily between the three furlong and two furlong marker before stretching clear to win by six lengths. I am sure that the handicapper would like to have reassessed her a lot higher than her 6lbs penalty and it will be disappointing if she cannot win off this mark.

Anything trained by William Haggas has to be considered these days and Araqella could give the favourite most to do. She also looks well treated on her earlier form but disappointed at Wolverhampton last time out. The consistent Lady Sylvia and Wakeup Little Suzy will be thereabouts but I’m confident that Buick can deliver Havelovewilltravel late on to take the spoils.

Havelovewilltravel 6-4 Bet365

Greatwood Hurdle Preview

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The second big prize of the Open meeting at Cheltenham this weekend is the Greatwood Hurdle on Sunday. The favourite is a horse that was a rare failure for the Nicky Henderson stable last season who failed to go on after finishing runner-up behind Olofi in this race.

Cash and Go revives painful memories as I had backed him at Ascot for the Ladbroke Hurdle on the strength of his performance in the Greatwood. Barry Geraghty is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished jump jockeys around but I think even he would admit that he got it all wrong on that occasion. He took a pull early on and practically left his horse blinded towards the rear of the 21-runner field. I’m sure that he was guessing at his hurdles and it was no surprise when Geraghty slid out of the side door after a mistake at the fourth.

The fact that he is favourite this year owes nothing to his subsequent efforts so I can only presume that he has been showing a lot more at home. Pine Creek won the William Hill Hurdle at Ascot last time out and certainly cruised into the race in good style. He did not win quite so easily as seemed likely and I’m not convinced that it was the greatest race. Neither of the front two makes any appeal at odds of around 6-1.

I have much more time for Sametegal at nearly twice the price, trained by Paul Nicholls. On the face of it he has a tough task under 11st 7lb having beaten Bayan by only a neck here last month. However, he had previous winner Handazan stone cold with half a mile to go and would have been more impressive with a stronger pace. He was a respectable third in the Triumph Hurdle and should run well.

My second selection is Kashmir Peak. He was beaten a mile in the Triumph but that was as a result of an early mistake and he is better judged on two meetings with Sametegal last season. He beat that rival by a length at Doncaster and was set to do so again at Musselburgh before unseating his rider four out. His four races on the flat have resulted in three placed efforts including a fine head second to Thomas Hobson at Newbury last month. If he transfers that improvement to hurdles he must have a good each-way chance.

I am also adding a second long-shot to my Paddy Power Gold Cup selection in the form of Astracad. Nigel Twiston-Davies has stated that he will run as long as the ground doesn’t turn soft and he also looks generously priced at 33-1.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Astracad (each-way) 33-1 888Sport

Greatwood Hurdle Kashmir Peak 12-1 Ladbrokes, BetVictor

Greatwood Hurdle Sametegal 10-1 Coral, Bet365

 

Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview

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Conduct (8-1) overcame a wide draw to win the November Handicap by five lengths on Saturday, ensuring that we ended the flat turf season on a winning note. Cheltenham’s Open meeting should get the pulse racing this weekend and the Paddy Power Gold Cup has attracted a good quality entry of 28.

Not for the first time, David Pipe is deliberating long and hard before committing Dynaste to this race. It is very much a case of Grands Cru revisited. Dynaste looked the best three-mile novice in training last season but was diverted to the two and a half miler at the festival at the last moment. He was beaten there but returned to his brilliant best at Aintree. He has the potential to make up into a Gold Cup contender this year so you cannot blame Pipe for being cautious. Likewise, I wouldn’t risk a penny on him until he is declared a definite runner.

Nicky Henderson has three entries with Finian’s Rainbow, Rajdhani Express and Nadiya De La Vega. The first two look to have a tough task at the weights on their seasonal debuts but Nadiya De La Vega is actually 5lbs lower than when third here a year ago. The seven-year-olds form is a bit in and out and has not been the safest conveyance in the past.

One of the best backed horses is Jonjo O’Neill’s Johns Spirit, an easy winner here at the last meeting. Whilst he looked a good bet at 14-1, he makes less appeal at a miserly 6-1 when you consider that he has been raised 10lbs and this is a much tougher race. Martin Keighley’s Champion Court has run well here in the past, notably when second to Sir Des Champs at the festival in 2012. The trainer reports him to be in great shape and admits that he has targeted this race for some time.

There are question marks about Salut Flo, Ballynagour and Katenko. Salut Flo has not raced since winning at the festival in 2012, Ballynagour has two ways of running and Katenko would probably like it softer. The latter also has to contend with a lengthy absence. Irish raiders are rare in this race but Hidden Cyclone and Texas Jack could be interesting at long odds. Texas Jack was up with the best staying novices last season and Hidden Cyclone is reportedly on course for a big run.

One horse that looks overpriced is Alan King’s Kumbeshwar at 40-1. He was staying on strongly behind Somersby at Exeter and Wayne Hutchinson is booked for Saturday. He is a tentative each-way selection at this stage and we’ll take another look when the final declarations are made.

Kumbeshwar (each-way) 40-1 Ladbrokes, Coral

Racing Preview 9th November

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Clearly I was tempting fate by hoping for a favourable draw for my ante-post selections in the November Handicap! Communicator has been drawn in stall 17 with Conduct even further out in stall 21. A quick delve into the history books reveals that a high draw isn’t necessarily fatal with nine of the past eleven winners being drawn in double-figure stalls. Even so, my confidence has certainly taken a knock for tomorrow’s race. The gamble of the race is a horse called Rhombus. I can’t see it winning myself but good luck to whoever is behind the midweek plunge.

Sprint handicaps at the end of the season are notoriously difficult but Eton Rifles arrives at Doncaster fresher than most. He won the Wentworth Stakes last year and bids for a repeat on his favoured soft ground. He was just denied by Steps in a handicap at Ascot last month after looking the likely winner with a furlong to travel. He stays seven furlongs so should certainly be staying on at the finish. I take him at 6-1 to get the better of the consistent Highland Colori and Jack Dexter.

The jumping season is getting into top gear now and grabbed the spotlight with McCoy’s 4000th winner this week. The action moves on to Wincanton tomorrow and Paul Nicholls introduces two horses that I’ve very much been looking forward to seeing.

Far West went into the Triumph Hurdle as one of the favourites but was left trailing by Our Conor’s extraordinary performance. Time will tell whether Our Conor is exceptional or whether it was a weak renewal of the juvenile championship. The Paul Nicholls-trained four-year-old looked a bit short of a change of gear at times last season and will presumably be up with the pace tomorrow. Melodic Rendezvous is the obvious danger but he is returning after suffering an injury that ruled him out of Cheltenham and Aintree and may just be a bit ring rusty.

My nap of the day is stable companion Wonderful Charm who looks a possible RSA Chase prospect. Nicholls thought enough of the gelding to run him in the World Hurdle last March but he has always had chasing in mind. He didn’t put a foot wrong on his debut and can chalk up a second victory at the expense of Alan King’s Meister Eckhart.

(Doncaster) 2.25 Eton Rifles 6-1 Bet Victor

(Wincanton) 2.05 Far West 7-2 Ladbrokes

(Wincanton) 3.15 Wonderful Charm 7-4 William Hill

November Handicap Preview

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John Gosden has simplified matters regarding the November Handicap by announcing the sale of the prolific winner Thomas Hobson to go jumping. He will now join the all-powerful Mullins stable and you wouldn’t bet against him making the grade in that sphere. That reduces Gosden’s entry to the top two in the handicap on Saturday, Aiken and Lahaag.

Aiken has not shown his true form this season whilst Lahaag bounced back with a win at York last time out. That was his first venture over a mile and a half and he responded to a patient ride from Paul Hanagan to swoop late. It is true that he has failed to trouble the judge twice at Doncaster but I wouldn’t read too much into that and he must have a decent chance.

I have been singing the praises of William Haggas all season for his excellent record in the big handicaps and he runs Conduct here. This one has the right profile for a race like this having started life with Sir Michael Stoute and being very lightly raced. He has had just two outings for Haggas, possibly needing the first one after a year off the track and then running third here over a mile and a quarter. Seb Sanders is booked and this likeable grey could well start favourite.

Of course there are plenty of possibilities for this end-of-season lottery but I can’t help but think Communicator is overpriced at 20-1. He was second here last year for Andrew Balding and is now running off a 3lbs lower mark.  It is true that he has not been at his best but he could just have been saved for this and he is too good to ignore at the available price.

The Queen’s Border Legend is another one with scope for improvement and came from well off the pace to win at Nottingham. I felt the leaders went off much too fast that day so he may have been slightly flattered by that victory and he also has to prove that he stays.

I’ll take the 20-1 Communicator and 7-1 about Conduct and hope that neither is drawn out in the car park!

Communicator 20-1 Bet365, Coral

Conduct 7-1 Skybet, William Hill

 

Wolverhampton Thursday Preview

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A nice double yesterday with Graphic (9-4 advised) and Balder Succes (8-15) both winning without breaking sweat. If only it was always that simple! Much of the attention on Wednesday will be on Tony McCoy and his quest for winner number 4,000. Jonjo O’Neill is supplying him with a regular stream of winners so it would be no surprise to see him boot one home at Towcester.

I’m heading to Wolverhampton tomorrow in search of a short-priced double. William Haggas has enjoyed a tremendous season and has been picking up handicaps with monotonous regularity. Harris Tweed seems to have been on the racetrack for donkey’s years and his half-sister seems set to uphold the family tradition after romping to a seven-length success at Newmarket recently.

Tweed was having only her second start but bounded clear from a good field in the style of a prospective group horse. Despite being eased down, she still had seven lengths in hand over Duchess of Gazeley. A 6lbs penalty doesn’t even come close to reflecting her supremacy and she faces only two rivals on Thursday. With all due respect to Layl and Corton Lad, they should not be good enough to get her off the bridle.

Of course, Tweed’s odds will reflect her chance so I’m relying on Godolphin’s Musaddas to set up the double in the opening maiden race. Saeed bin Suroor trains this son of Exceed and Excel and this will be his fourth attempt at breaking his duck. To be fair, the gelding looked to have his race won at Windsor last time only for Modernstone to cut him down close home.

Musaddas didn’t help his cause by pulling like a train in the early stages but Silvestre de Sousa will know him better this time and the fact that he will always be on the turn here should help. He holds Arms on that form but may have most to fear from It Must Be Faith. This one has been runner-up twice and has been tried at six to eight furlongs. He ran well at Yarmouth last time and is certainly capable of making a race of it.

Musaddas

Tweed