Tag: Horse Racing

Caulfield Cup Preview

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Saturday’s Caulfield Cup looks to have been thrown wide open by the barrier draw with fancied runners Hawkspur and Dandino among those out wide. Confidence in Hawkspur seems to have evaporated since he pulled barrier 16 whilst English hope Dandino faces an impossible task from stall 19.

Hawkspur put up an eye-catching trial in the Turnbull Stakes when attempting to come from last with a sweeping run up the inside rail. In a tightly-bunched field, he had to weave his way between horses and could never get to the leaders in the race won by Happy Trails. Although he cannot be dismissed with Dunaden having won from stall 18 last year, his jockey must now hope for luck in running on this notorious slow-starter.

Dandino does not possess the same turn of foot as Hawkspur and would have been a major player given any sort of low draw. However, he is really going to struggle from stall 19 and Craig Williams will have to be at his very best. Punters have deserted Hawkspur in favour of stable companion and Australian Oaks winner Royal Descent. She also endured a troubled passage along with Jet Away and it is the former Sir Henry Cecil-trained inmate that interests me most of the pair.

Jet Away looked certain to be in the first four before being snatched up when crossed by a rival close home, dropping back to sixth. He had made good progress from the rear and it could be significant that four-time Caulfield Cup winner Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride on Saturday. At odds of around 9-1, he looks a decent each-way bet. He has drawn barrier 13 which, although not ideal, does at least give his rider a chance of settling closer to the pace.

With so many of the fancied horses drawn wide, the race looks set up for a possible shock result and My Quest For Peace could step up on his previous efforts. Last year he was sent over by Luca Cumani and ran fifth here from a low draw. If you dismiss his recent efforts over distances well short of his best, he could bounce back to form for Peter Moody.

Corey Brown knows the horse well having ridden him last year and his best form in Europe came when he was up with the pace. He will be arriving late from Singapore to take the ride. At odds of around 33-1, he could represent each-way value.

Jet Away 9-1 Bet365

My Quest For Peace 33-1 Stan James, Totesport

Kempton Wednesday Preview

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The weather has been having a big impact on fields this week with reams of non-runners due to the change in the going. This has re-opened the debate on 48 hour declarations but I am of the belief that it is a seasonal problem.

Many trainers are desperate to get a run into their horses before the end of the turf season but are not prepared to risk two-year-olds on very soft ground. The late defections are simply the price we have to pay for having the information to hand 48 hours in advance. I certainly wouldn’t want to go back to the 24 hour declaration system which greatly reduces the time for studying the form. Bookmakers would probably revert to pricing the races up on the morning of the race and I’m sure this would not be helpful as far as the online betting revenue is concerned.

For Wednesday’s selection I’m heading to Kempton and the all-weather. Godolphin’s Murasil really caught my eye when running a fine race on his debut to finish second to the useful Diamond Mine. The chestnut is a gelding by Elusive Quality and started at 8-1 that day under Mickael Barzalona. He was slowly away that day but travelled comfortably throughout and cut through the field turning into the straight.

He looked sure to win until Kieren Fallon galvanised Diamond Mine and snatched the spoils by a head on the line. Murasil lost nothing in defeat and will be even better with that experience under his belt. Godolphin also run Aalim who was behind that day and the disappointing Saddaqa who has surely had enough chances with four seconds.

A bigger danger is likely to be James Fanshawe’s Okavango (not to be confused with Ocovango who ran in the Derby and Arc this year). This Nayef filly was second to Fersah at Leicester in May but has not been seen since. If she is fit after 142 days off the track, she could give Murasil something to think about.

Sharareh showed something at Windsor earlier in the season and could reach the frame but it will be disappointing if Murasil cannot take this on the way to better things.

Murasil (Kempton 8.40)

Leicester Tuesday Preview

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The main flat racing action on Tuesday comes from Leicester and the bet of the day could be Sir Michael Stoute’s Gothic in the maiden race at 5.10.

The son of Danehill Dancer is out of Riberac who was a typically tough Mark Johnston filly and I’m hopeful that he may have inherited some of her traits. He was clearly unfancied on his debut at Newmarket when sent off at 33-1 under Pat Dobbs.

After settling towards the rear, he made some progress at half-way before staying on at the one pace to finish sixth behind Mitraad. The form is hard to assess at this stage but he steps up to a mile for the first time on Tuesday and Ryan Moore is aboard. Most of Stoute’s youngsters have needed a run to put them straight this season so there could be significant improvement in him.

The dangers come from the unraced horses. Roger Charlton runs Hooded, an Empire Maker colt out of the smart Yashmak whilst Andrew Balding’s Opera Duke is also bred to be useful. Luca Cumani runs Seek A Star but the booking of Kirsty Milczarek suggests that the filly may need this first outing to sharpen her up.

Palace Dragon has had two runs but looks distinctly moderate but Mark Johnston’s Alex My Boy could certainly be a threat. He is by Dalakhani out of Oaks winner Alexandrova. Kieren Fallon is an eye-catching booking and this colt is the one that I am most wary of.

The Conditions race at 4.10 should go to Princess Loulou who won by nine lengths at Pontefract on her third start. The going was soft that day and the leaders went off at a suicidal pace, leaving Princess Loulou to come through and win at her leisure. Her three opponents look completely out of sorts but there is unlikely to be much value in the market.

Ryan Moore also has a sound chance in the opener on Balding’s Trading Profit who has been flying high in recent starts. He was unable to land a blow in the Mill Reef Stakes or the Redcar Two-year-old Trophy but should be more suited to this grade.

Gothic (5.10 Leicester)

Salisbury Monday Preview

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There are some very competitive races at Salisbury on Monday but the best bets may lie in the maiden races early in the card. Richard Hannon has a fine record at the track and his filly Tea In Transvaal is having her fifth outing of the season in the 2.20.

At first glance, she may seem a little disappointing having shown plenty of promise on her debut at Ascot. She finished a close fourth and was made favourite for her second outing at Newbury. She came up against a very smart filly in Lightning Thunder and had to settle for second place.

She stepped up to a mile for the first time at Goodwood in September where Richard Hughes attempted to make all. He held all bar Uchenna, going down by a head in the final strides. She ran another good race on her most recent start when third in the maiden race won by Taghrooda. Andrew Balding’s promising Casual Smile was runner-up and the form looks rock solid.

She drops back to six furlongs on Monday and is likely to be right up with the pace. Nassiki Kasta shaped well on her debut and could be a danger but the main threat may come from the unraced Allegria. She is by Dalakhani out of a Sadler’s Wells mare and represents the in-form John Gosden and William Buick combination.

The second division should go to Ryan Moore aboard the once-raced Dutch Romance for Charlie Hills. She ran a race packed full of promise at Newbury when very considerately ridden by Steve Drowne. She stayed on strongly to be less than four lengths adrift of Extremity at the line and looks certain to improve for the experience.

Joohania also ran well on her debut at Kempton whilst Aertex could be better than her first run suggests. Andrew Balding’s Alumina is a daughter of Invincible Spirit and makes her racecourse debut. Dutch Romance should be able to win this on the way to better things.

Tea In Transvaal (2.20 Salisbury)

Dutch Romance (2.50 Salisbury)

Racing Preview Saturday 12th October

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Graphic (tipped at 5-1) more than made up for a disappointing run from Dungannon at York on Friday. There are more big fields at Newmarket and York and Newmarket on Saturday to tempt punters but there are a couple of two-year-olds that catch my eye.

The first is Richard Fahey’s Rufford who goes in the Rockingham Stakes at York. A winner here back in June, the son of Invincible Spirit disappointed at Pontefract on his next outing behind Cool Bahamian. He first caught my eye when running on strongly after a slow start in the valuable sales race here in August.

He was a well-backed 6-1 shot that day and flew home in fifth place behind Haikbidiac. Plenty of winners have come out of that race since, notably Nezar, Green Door, Ventura Mist and Morning Post. He was allowed to start at 20-1 for the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury but raced right up with the pace and plugged on when challenged on all sides. In the end, he only gave best by three-quarters of a length to stable companion Supplicant.

He holds Figure Of Speech on that form and is clearly the one to beat. The lightly-raced Outer Space could be the main danger but 4-1 looks a good price with BetVictor.

My second selection is Lightning Thunder in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. This filly has always been held in high regard by Olly Stevens and has around 12lbs in hand on her rivals tomorrow. She followed up her debut win by scrambling home at Doncaster but she showed how good she is in the Oh So Sharp Stakes.

She looked to have the race won when she was sent to the front over a furlong out by Harry Bentley but Miss France arrived late on the scene to beat her by a head. Lightning Thunder was left a bit high and dry in front on Newmarket’s wide open spaces and may have idled slightly but it was still a good effort. The winner is the new favourite for the 1000 Guineas and it will be disappointing if Lightning Thunder cannot win tomorrow.

Rufford 4-1 BetVictor

Lightning Thunder 5-6  Stan James, Totesport

York Friday Preview

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Graphic makes a quick reappearance for William Haggas in a competitive race at York tomorrow after his fine fourth in the Cambridgeshire. The four-year-old was boldly ridden from the front by Frankie Dettori but could not sustain the gallop in the closing stages. Even so, it was a decent effort in one of the toughest handicaps of the season and he looks to have a great chance off just a 3lb higher mark on Friday.

Ryan Moore has been booked to take the ride and I would expect him to be ridden with a little more restraint. The early stages could be crucial from his stall 16 draw but hopefully Moore can settle him in just behind the leaders. He certainly looked progressive in his previous race when winning a valuable race on the all-weather at Kempton and I would expect him to go off shorter than the early 5-1.

Dangers include Luca Cumani’s Rockalong who chased home Brownsea Brink at Newmarket and Levitate who was part of Oisin Murphy’s four-timer at Ayr last month. The young apprentice is being carefully managed by Andrew Balding in the hope that he will derive as much benefit as possible from his 5lb claim. He gave us a winner last week with a fine ride on Ballinderry Boy and could be back in the headlines on Friday with five booked rides.

Dungannon could certainly go close in the sprint at 2.30 following victories at Ascot and Haydock. Despite being up 5lbs for his latest win, there is every prospect of the six-year-old improving again. Unusually for a horse that had won his previous outing, Dungannon wore blinkers for the first time at Haydock and won more impressively than at Ascot. It could be that he still has another victory in him and he looks good value at 7-1 or thereabouts.

Murphy rides Van Percy for Balding in the 4.15 but this one looks tricky to win with. He scraped home at Haydock in the summer but generally does not find a great deal off the bridle. It would not surprise me to see him coasting up to the leaders early in the straight but I’d rather invest in Luca Cumani’s Elhaame. He ran well in a decent race at Ascot last time, his first attempt at this trip. He could still be improving and 5-1 looks a reasonable bet on a typically competitive end of season card.

Dungannon (2.30 York) 7-1 Ladbrokes

Graphic 5-1 (3.05 York) 5-1 Ladbrokes

Elhaame 5-1 (4.15 York) 5-1 William Hill, Bet365